CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Euro still isn't budging too much today. Euro and NAM keep most of the action over se mass and the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Euro still isn't budging too much today. Euro and NAM keep most of the action over se mass and the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Wow..look at the change on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 You have to wonder though how much of a role the MJO will end up playing. The MJO signal looks rather weak so if global teleconnections such as the NAO/EPO/PNA aren't favorable and those signals are much stronger the MJO could be of little significance. I hope it plays a role, because I can't find another way to dislodge it, other than hoping some natural atmospheric shuffling will do the trick. I despise the look of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 LOL, it may be a little too light, but something in between the euro and gfs may do the trick I guess. It would just be nice to see some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I hope it plays a role, because I can't find another way to dislodge it, other than hoping some natural atmospheric shuffling will do the trick. I despise the look of the pattern. Well if it is going to play a role I hope it does so in anything but phases 3-6 . I mean if we're still in a raging +EPO/-PNA/+NAO pattern with a strong MJO signal in 3-6 we may as well begin spreading lawn seeds and fertilizer around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Wow..look at the change on the Euro That pattern sucks. Ridge in se Canada and zonal flow from the Pacific mean cutoff rains...probably starting as snow verbatim in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Well if it is going to play a role I hope it does so in anything but phases 3-6 . I mean if we're still in a raging +EPO/-PNA/+NAO pattern with a strong MJO signal in 3-6 we may as well begin spreading lawn seeds and fertilizer around. Yeah that's what I mean. I think it may take until the last 10-15 days of December to really see a change, but again..you still can have snow in a crappy pattern. You can change the pattern, but sometimes the left over garbage airmass still needs to be flushed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 That pattern sucks. Ridge in se Canada and zonal flow from the Pacific mean cutoff rains...probably starting as snow verbatim in the interior. Yeah it definitely sucks. While it doesn't have as strong of a +NAO signal that the GFS has it actually shows a stronger +EPO signal which is not what we want to see...although at least the Euro isn't as strong with the zonal flow coming in from the Pacific with more of a ridge in the west instead of a trough which helps to suppress the SE ridge some. Let's just get this garbage out of the way now though...if this was a month from now and we were seeing this I'd scream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Yeah it definitely sucks. While it doesn't have as strong of a +NAO signal that the GFS has it actually shows a stronger +EPO signal which is not what we want to see...although at least the Euro isn't as strong with the zonal flow coming in from the Pacific with more of a ridge in the west instead of a trough which helps to suppress the SE ridge some. Let's just get this garbage out of the way now though...if this was a month from now and we were seeing this I'd scream. Screw any -NAO right now. Unless you want to see everyone above 1000ft naked, we need a -EPO to flush this garbage out of NAMR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Radar looks great to the sw as precip blossoms..GFS FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Radar looks great to the sw as precip blossoms..GFS FTW Until you look at ground truth, and base radar, its 90% virga:( never doubt the king:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Yeah that's what I mean. I think it may take until the last 10-15 days of December to really see a change, but again..you still can have snow in a crappy pattern. You can change the pattern, but sometimes the left over garbage airmass still needs to be flushed out. That's completely fine if it takes that long. The great thing about living where we do is we don't need that great pattern. Sure it makes it more difficult but if it's a crazy anomalous pattern anything can happen...you just need everything to come together perfect. To be honest with the way things have gone since last January I wouldn't rule anything out. This may sound like a weenie standpoint but look at how many events we have seen occur within the past 10 months where we needed everything to be right. It just seems that we are just in a cycle now where what needs to go right goes right...then there are times when one thing goes wrong everything goes wrong. The best thing we can hope for is to get the EPO to get at least slightly negative about a week or so before the NAO goes negative this way we'll have the cold air source and it can be delivered freshly. Good news is we're beginning to see some nice cold beginning to build up near Alaska and Eurasia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Nah, he is the holy one. He will live forever. I'm talking overall pattern, but it looks ugly, through at least the first week. How's it look for Baku Azerbaijan that week? That's where I will be. Lol seriously. That is the Caspian Sea region I think that is where we want a ridge right? Is that the Cahirs connection? I remember JB always talked about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Screw any -NAO right now. Unless you want to see everyone above 1000ft naked, we need a -EPO to flush this garbage out of NAMR. I alluded to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 How was December snowfall wise across the region in these years? Not using these years as analogs or anything but this is a composite of +EPO/-NAO/-PNA Decembers: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Radar looks great to the sw as precip blossoms..GFS FTW The HRRR goes pretty bullish later. I'm siding a little closer to the GFS, but not sure about how far west this will go. We'll have to see how radar looks. Euro doesn't seem to be handling that stuff near Philly all that well, but GFS may be too bullish. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 THROUGH YESTERDAY BOS+5.2 ORH+5.4 Unbelievable, truly unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 I alluded to that. Oh I know...I just through it out there as a general comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The HRRR goes pretty bullish later. I'm siding a little closer to the GFS, but not sure about how far west this will go. We'll have to see how radar looks. Euro doesn't seem to be handling that stuff near Philly all that well, but GFS may be too bullish. We'll see. Virga, cant find a single reporting station thats precipitating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 How was December snowfall wise across the region in these years? Not using these years as analogs or anything but this is a composite of +EPO/-NAO/-PNA Decembers:<img src="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd71.235.37.152.320.5.52.44.prcp.png" /> Maybe modified Labatts will do the deed in December while vodka holds off till January per Paul's post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 You have to wonder though how much of a role the MJO will end up playing. The MJO signal looks rather weak so if global teleconnections such as the NAO/EPO/PNA aren't favorable and those signals are much stronger the MJO could be of little significance. The MJO looks real weak next month on the GEFS. But stronger on the Euro ensembles. We would want to GEFS solution, to play out for change earlier in Dec. to a sustained cold pattern: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 How's it look for Baku Azerbaijan that week? That's where I will be. Lol seriously. That is the Caspian Sea region I think that is where we want a ridge right? Is that the Cahirs connection? I remember JB always talked about that. Doesn't look too bad. maybe 30s to 40s for a high, but I guess it depends on elevation too. I've heard about the Caspian Ridge. I suppose it could teleconnect to colder air here, but I think the correlation is more in the heart of winter when we don't have all this noise and crazy cutoffs in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I was not dry slotted at all. It snowed the entire time..Look at the radar loop. I did lose out on higher amounts due to better banding to my west..but it was not a dryslot here. i was up most of the night. Stafford had 11.5-12 inches . The other Tolland poster on here at like 880 feet measured 12 inches even I was severely dry slotted and snowed the whole time but yes looking at the radar and the texts you sent me there was a time when you were sn- while BDL etc was SN+ I am not questioning your totals Kev either, where did you get the Stafford number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Incidentally the longer range euro resembles what it looked like including the temperature profile at similar lead times for the December 2003 monster. thats the horn I have been tooting, seems awfully familiar to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Virga, cant find a single reporting station thats precipitating Yep, it is. Mostly light stuff near BWI and through Philly. WRI reporting it. No models really have much measurable there now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The HRRR goes pretty bullish later. I'm siding a little closer to the GFS, but not sure about how far west this will go. We'll have to see how radar looks. Euro doesn't seem to be handling that stuff near Philly all that well, but GFS may be too bullish. We'll see. Surprise jackpot in GC. 39.3/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Screw any -NAO right now. Unless you want to see everyone above 1000ft naked, we need a -EPO to flush this garbage out of NAMR. I disagree as Pauls maps show. We have and can have great winters with a +EPO and a Neg Nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 How strange will this be looking back, one of the warmest MET Autumns in New England history, region wide, and the largest October Snowstorm, perhaps ever a biblical perhaps 1 in 1000 year event. Climate Change is alive and well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Oh I know...I just through it out there as a general comment. Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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