ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Euro is hideous for any snow. Maybe a flake at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Euro is hideous for any snow. Maybe a flake at the end. Maybe it's hideous for a significant snow but that looks like a snow to rain scenario next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Maybe it's hideous for a significant snow but that looks like a snow to rain scenario next Wednesday. And it manages to turn it into a cutoff bomb at the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I know 2008 was the wettest year on record at BDL but where do I get a list which ranks the years in order? This has 2008 as second and it's only listed as "state"...not sure where they are using data from...an average off all the major stations in CT? http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Here is a composite of all -NAO Decembers along with a +EPO I thought 2002-03 had a mainly +NAO? Did the NAO flip to positive in January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 And it manages to turn it into a cutoff bomb at the end of the week. The UKMET also looks threatening at day 6. Short wavelengths/split flow can be fun during a +EPO pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I thought 2002-03 had a mainly +NAO? Did the NAO flip to positive in January? December NAO in 2002 was quite negative... Hurrell's number was -2.4 By January though it did flip to positive according to Hurrel (0.4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 December NAO in 2002 was quite negative... Hurrell's number was -2.4 By January though it did flip to positive according to Hurrel (0.4) Hmm interesting..I guess the Pacific pattern that winter was about as good as it gets with the PNA. Thanks Paul. Btw, can you link me to these height anomaly maps? I know they're on ESRL somewhere but I can never seem to find them that site has so much stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Hmm interesting..I guess the Pacific pattern that winter was about as good as it gets with the PNA. Thanks Paul. Btw, can you link me to these height anomaly maps? I know they're on ESRL somewhere but I can never seem to find them that site has so much stuff. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Euro really wants to give us one wintry day next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Euro really wants to give us one wintry day next week: The weenie maps drop about a foot here. Too bad this SWFE is still out in d7 land. The ens have a little snow too though and are colder for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Maybe it's hideous for a significant snow but that looks like a snow to rain scenario next Wednesday. That's better than a torch. Meanwhile, I expect to record a T today for a couple flakes that won't amount to much. Of the posters here, I vote that HubbDave jackpots with a 1/2" of slush on his lawn. Many will report a snow observation but only record a T. If today's precip prevents my chimney work fromo getting done, I'll be pretty bummed. 40.9/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The weenie maps drop about a foot here. Too bad this SWFE is still out in d7 land. The ens have a little snow too though and are colder for SNE. I could go for some SWFE...anything to change Kevin over to sleet is a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The weenie maps drop about a foot here. Too bad this SWFE is still out in d7 land. The ens have a little snow too though and are colder for SNE. Would be your largest recorded November snowfall by far. Let's get it done. Funny how in the span of a few days we've gone from playing Frisbee in shorts on Thanksgiving to shoveling a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 One thing that confuses me. Kev got 12.5 and he was dry slotted for quite a long time while BDL was ripping for hours, how do they end up with less than Kev, for that matter how does Windsor? Ever get any totals from Stafford, Union? I was not dry slotted at all. It snowed the entire time..Look at the radar loop. I did lose out on higher amounts due to better banding to my west..but it was not a dryslot here. i was up most of the night. Stafford had 11.5-12 inches . The other Tolland poster on here at like 880 feet measured 12 inches even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Would be your largest recorded November snowfall by far. Let's get it done. Funny how in the span of a few days we've gone from playing Frisbee in shorts on Thanksgiving to shoveling a foot of snow. Spllit those two and what do you get? A climatological norm. Funny how that works. 40.1/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 1-2 inches seems like a virtual lock later today tonight from about the river on east..Nice to see most modelling on board..A little disturbing the Euro isn't..but we'll toss the Euro for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 1-2 inches seems like a virtual lock later today tonight from about the river on east..Nice to see most modelling on board..A little disturbing the Euro isn't..but we'll toss the Euro for now Now that's leading your flock!!! MJO forecasts are improving and so is the modeling. After this weekend, while the pattern still is crappy, the worst may be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The timing of this whole thing seems off... If anyone gets more than a coating I'd be amazed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Incidentally the longer range euro resembles what it looked like including the temperature profile at similar lead times for the December 2003 monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Jerry must have seen dozens of rotund rodents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 1-2 inches seems like a virtual lock later today tonight from about the river on east..Nice to see most modelling on board..A little disturbing the Euro isn't..but we'll toss the Euro for now American Garbage™ superior to the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 American Garbage™ superior to the Euro? Only when it shows a better outcome. 39.8/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Now that's leading your flock!!! MJO forecasts are improving and so is the modeling. After this weekend, while the pattern still is crappy, the worst may be over. I hope so..but the mets in many circles are saying Dec 1-10 will be the worst..That will slowly destroy me if that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I hope so..but the mets in many circles are saying Dec 1-10 will be the worst..That will slowly destroy me if that happens We'll be fine. Let the first few weeks of December blow. mid-December on will be rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 The flow at the end of the euro ensembles is trying to pop a ridge in the EPAC into western Canada (weak +PNA), but the flow is still zonal into Canada and a trough in the sw US is helping to pump the se ridge. It's going to take a while folks. Better hope for some sort of event that times well through mid December. Fortunately thr MJO tries to get more favorable by the 16th, but the results from that don't happen usually for several days after. Basically, the hope is to get some good timing with events...and yes it can happen, but no sustained wintry pattern imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The flow at the end of the euro ensembles is trying to pop a ridge in the EPAC into western Canada (weak +PNA), but the flow is still zonal into Canada and a trough in the sw US is helping to pump the se ridge. It's going to take a while folks. Better hope for some sort of event that times well through mid December. Fortunately thr MJO tries to get more favorable by the 16th, but the results from that don't happen usually for several days after. Basically, the hope is to get some good timing with events...and yes it can happen, but no sustained wintry pattern imo. Are you trying to slowly destroy the Rev? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Are you trying to slowly destroy the Rev? Nah, he is the holy one. He will live forever. I'm talking overall pattern, but it looks ugly, through at least the first week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I hope so..but the mets in many circles are saying Dec 1-10 will be the worst..That will slowly destroy me if that happens It was bad 12/1-10, 1960. Have faith! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The flow at the end of the euro ensembles is trying to pop a ridge in the EPAC into western Canada (weak +PNA), but the flow is still zonal into Canada and a trough in the sw US is helping to pump the se ridge. It's going to take a while folks. Better hope for some sort of event that times well through mid December. Fortunately thr MJO tries to get more favorable by the 16th, but the results from that don't happen usually for several days after. Basically, the hope is to get some good timing with events...and yes it can happen, but no sustained wintry pattern imo. You have to wonder though how much of a role the MJO will end up playing. The MJO signal looks rather weak so if global teleconnections such as the NAO/EPO/PNA aren't favorable and those signals are much stronger the MJO could be of little significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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