H2Otown_WX Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 We've already had too much snow for that analog. Lol, true. Especially with BDL inflating their total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I would like to know how Joe determined snow growth. Sloppy dendrites stacked on edge? Meh...not expecting much Long term still looking vague to crappy. Need that AK ridge in 3 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Lol, true. Especially with BDL inflating their total. Inflating then deflating...just as bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Lol, true. Especially with BDL inflating their total. It's been partially fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 It's been partially fixed. Gave them a straighter ruler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 God I hope the models show something interesting for Wed of next week. I'm starting to get really anxious. I've been trying to keep my cool, but this weather is soooooooooo damn boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 It's been partially fixed. One thing that confuses me. Kev got 12.5 and he was dry slotted for quite a long time while BDL was ripping for hours, how do they end up with less than Kev, for that matter how does Windsor? Ever get any totals from Stafford, Union? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 God I hope the models show something interesting for Wed of next week. I'm starting to get really anxious. I've been trying to keep my cool, but this weather is soooooooooo damn boring. Nov 16 th bro Nov 16 th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 One thing that confuses me. Kev got 12.5 and he was dry slotted for quite a long time while BDL was ripping for hours, how do they end up with less than Kev, for that matter how does Windsor? Ever get any totals from Stafford, Union? If you have ten guys measuring the same snow in a 500 x 500' area they'll come up with ten different totals. I'd love NOAA to run an experiment of this type because it would help us to smooth out the variations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 One thing that confuses me. Kev got 12.5 and he was dry slotted for quite a long time while BDL was ripping for hours, how do they end up with less than Kev, for that matter how does Windsor? Ever get any totals from Stafford, Union? They didn't end up with less...they are still determining the 10/30 total. Probably like 3" which gives them 15"...which sounds reasonable based on other reports. Elevation did matter in the first half of the storm especially. It was obviously eventually overcome but early on it did matter...and even later where the higher areas had a slightly more powdery snow...esp west of BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 It's been partially fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Could also use either end if there was 3" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 One thing that confuses me. Kev got 12.5 and he was dry slotted for quite a long time while BDL was ripping for hours, how do they end up with less than Kev, for that matter how does Windsor? Ever get any totals from Stafford, Union? The total is only 10/29... the 10/30 total is on its way. Collinsville had 18.9" total and they were in better banding than BDL. So I think BDL in all likelihood picked up 16". We'll never know what they actually got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The total is only 10/29... the 10/30 total is on its way. Collinsville had 18.9" total and they were in better banding than BDL. So I think BDL in all likelihood picked up 16". We'll never know what they actually got. 500+ feet definitely didn't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 500+ feet definitely didn't hurt. Well Collinsville is in a valley too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Well Collinsville is in a valley too. I think shaving 3" of the Collinsville total is probably fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Well Collinsville is in a valley too. Isn't he 540 feet or something? That is a big difference than like 180 feet that BDL is, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Isn't he 540 feet or something? That is a big difference than like 180 feet that BDL is, no? Yeah the poster is at 540... but Collinsville is in a valley with some decent hills on either side. BDL being further north probably helped offset that a bit... but between the somewhat better banding to the southwest and elevation I think shaving 3" off the Collinsville ob makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Yeah the poster is at 540... but Collinsville is in a valley with some decent hills on either side. BDL being further north probably helped offset that a bit... but between the somewhat better banding to the southwest and elevation I think shaving 3" off the Collinsville ob makes sense. Yeah probably...I guess we'll never know for sure. All we know is that 20"+ was ridiculous. Whether it was 14.5" or 16.2" we can only speculate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Yeah the poster is at 540... but Collinsville is in a valley with some decent hills on either side. BDL being further north probably helped offset that a bit... but between the somewhat better banding to the southwest and elevation I think shaving 3" off the Collinsville ob makes sense. I have no horse in this race, but 3" for 300 vertical feet sounds about right...though its hard to imagine much more than that for a difference between 200ft and 500ft. I've seen a lot of snowfalls and varying elevations, and unless you are literally on the rain/snow elevation line, 300ft of difference won't make all that much of a increase/decrease in snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Yeah probably...I guess we'll never know for sure. All we know is that 20"+ was ridiculous. Whether it was 14.5" or 16.2" we can only speculate. Yeah the 8" or whatever after 1 a.m. was an error.... thankfully that has been corrected. I do think that there were very few accurate and properly measured observations around BDL. There was a tremendous gradient in a very small area from areas just east of the river to the hills to the northwest. 20" in Granby and 25" in Hartland which is only 10-15 miles west of BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I have no horse in this race, but 3" for 300 vertical feet sounds about right...though its hard to imagine much more than that for a difference between 200ft and 500ft. I've seen a lot of snowfalls and varying elevations, and unless you are literally on the rain/snow elevation line, 300ft of difference won't make all that much of a increase/decrease in snowfall. Yeah it appears there wasn't a huge difference. Would it mean an inch? probably. That when coupled with some better banding southwest I think shaving 3" off makes sense. I do think that there can be some substantial differences in totals with this storm based on how measurements were made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 if we had any semblance of blocking over western greenland, this would have been another atmospheric show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I have no horse in this race, but 3" for 300 vertical feet sounds about right...though its hard to imagine much more than that for a difference between 200ft and 500ft. I've seen a lot of snowfalls and varying elevations, and unless you are literally on the rain/snow elevation line, 300ft of difference won't make all that much of a increase/decrease in snowfall. It depends on the type of thermal profile...on 2/24-25/10, I had nearly 12" in ORH at 900+ feet while weatherMA and ma_blizzard in Shrewsbury both at around 450-500 feet had like 4-5"...so a difference of like 7-8" over 450 feet. Early on in the storm, I bet Collinsville at 540 feet had a good head start since it was a steep lapse rate in the lowest levels. It evened out later in the storm, but it still matters. The mesoscale banding as Ryan said certainly makes a difference too, but I've seen just 300-400 feet make a huge difference before...it just takes the right low level thermal profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 It depends on the type of thermal profile...on 2/24-25/10, I had nearly 12" in ORH at 900+ feet while weatherMA and ma_blizzard in Shrewsbury both at around 450-500 feet had like 4-5"...so a difference of like 7-8" over 450 feet. Early on in the storm, I bet Collinsville at 540 feet had a good head start since it was a steep lapse rate in the lowest levels. It evened out later in the storm, but it still matters. The mesoscale banding as Ryan said certainly makes a difference too, but I've seen just 300-400 feet make a huge difference before...it just takes the right low level thermal profile. Do you really have to keep bringing that storm up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I have no horse in this race, but 3" for 300 vertical feet sounds about right...though its hard to imagine much more than that for a difference between 200ft and 500ft. I've seen a lot of snowfalls and varying elevations, and unless you are literally on the rain/snow elevation line, 300ft of difference won't make all that much of a increase/decrease in snowfall. Oh I really really really beg to differ on that down here near the marine layer. Tons of examples over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 00z GFS keeps the snow chances alive tomorrow night. Not expecting much of anything though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 00z GFS keeps the snow chances alive tomorrow night. Not expecting much of anything though. If it has any support at all from the Euro the NAM can be safely disposed of like a used jimmy. The GFS is awfully attractive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 00z GFS keeps the snow chances alive tomorrow night. Not expecting much of anything though. sure does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 If it has any support at all from the Euro the NAM can be safely disposed of like a used jimmy. The GFS is awfully attractive. Going by tonights rain, The GFS qpf matches up very well as it is pretty much spot on with the total for here as compared to the NAM, I alreaday am tossing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.