ski MRG Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Well....arguably yes....last winter, the tornado day, and the Halloweenie storm. Irene kind of pooped out vs potential. Yes she did plenty of damage but the expected was worse than reality. Hmmmm. I think there would be some objection to that statement out here. Get used to the theme of snow chances materializing out of the ether, I think this will be repeated over and over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 It certainly seems stable for now, especially with the MJO going into phase 3-5 which at least helps support it. Why do you keep saying that - it's on the terminous of Phase 7-8 according to NCEP. Buuut. the fact that it's there, hell - maybe their measurements wrong - who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 i think there's a decent chance you'll mix or flip briefly tomorrow PM. tougher out my way i think but maybe even here some sloppy flakes mix in. Thanks, will be interesting to see the 0z suite tonight. Some potential and I love these early season surprises. Euro ensembles pretty ugly at day 15. Long as we have some passing shots here and there...that's all we can ask for over the next 15-30 days. Wow 18z GFS is impressive. Good to see the american guidance in agreement once again GFS/Euro probably on the right idea someone will see a burst of accumulating snow in our area Thursday. Foggy down here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Why do you keep saying that - it's on the terminous of Phase 7-8 according to NCEP. Buuut. the fact that it's there, hell - maybe their measurements wrong - who knows. current vs where it's going i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml It might be a little complicated to understand, Dave. No doubt, but I have been reading up a little on it during the last couple of weeks. Mostly over my head I do make good chicken park though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 LOL, I remember Jerry's post. 20 days later, he was almost arrested for indecent exposure. So yeah everyone, note that Jerry's post was from December 6th last year, which was far from our minds 6 weeks later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Why do you keep saying that - it's on the terminous of Phase 7-8 according to NCEP. Buuut. the fact that it's there, hell - maybe their measurements wrong - who knows. current vs where it's going i think. Yeah I'm referring to where it's going. My fault for not being clear on that John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 No doubt, but I have been reading up a little on it during the last couple of weeks. Mostly over my head I do make good chicken park though I thought you stayed at a holiday inn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 I thought you stayed at a holiday inn Chicken park sounds interesting. Never had that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Chicken park sounds interesting. Never had that. Me either, Wonder how its prepped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Chicken park sounds interesting. Never had that. Lol. Using the iPod with self correct whilst cooking FTL Sneaky chicken parma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Lol. Using the iPod with self correct whilst cooking FTL Sneaky chicken parma I know how to make that... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 18z gfs brings the storm next week further north this run but its rain for most with some snow NNE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 The euro still isn't terribly juice, but it would flip areas over to some -SN. Maybe like a 34F deal in eastern mass. Places like ORH probably could drop to freezing. I would like to see models hold this evening or come in more bullish. It's still possible the best moisture is closer to se mass or the Cape. If we do get some precip, it's gonna probably lead to some slippery spots tomorrow night as temps fall below 32F. I suppose the good news is that all models seem to entertain the idea, with the NAM being furthest east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Yeah I'm referring to where it's going. My fault for not being clear on that John. Oh, gotcha heh. It will also be interesting to see if the wave amplitude is more robust on the left -vs- right hand side of the Wheeler plot over the next month - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Well....arguably yes....last winter, the tornado day, and the Halloweenie storm. Irene kind of pooped out vs potential. Yes she did plenty of damage but the expected was worse than reality. Even the rain storms, just look at the yearly QPF. Irene's surge was more devastating than predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 18z gfs brings the storm next week further north this run but its rain for most with some snow NNE.. Euro ensembles bring it into CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Euro ensembles bring it into CNE. and the Op is near the Delmarva OTS, hmm middle ground sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Even the rain storms, just look at the yearly QPF. Irene's surge was more devastating than predicted. Were we hit with any tropical storms in 1979? Belle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Euro ensembles bring it into CNE. Wow, Quite a contrast from the op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Were we hit with any tropical storms in 1979? Belle? Chicken Park? is that with or without asphalt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Chicken Park? is that with or without asphalt? Ok Mr Phat fingers... David was 1979 but did not hit New England... Chicken park has grass and dog poop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Ok Mr Phat fingers... David was 1979 but did not hit New England... Chicken park has grass and dog poop Everytime you mention 79/80 i want to b**ch slap you, just sayin...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Huh... I just went through the entire 30 years of data at the CDC's stratosphere, troposphere monitoring site, and this is the only year so far that shows 0, nadda, zilch, as far as thermal permutations amid the polar field for the time between October 15 and November 15. Typically, we begin to see small packets of cold and hot anomalies - most don't propagate or mean much to correlation, but they are there shortly after Oct 1 any given year.. There may be better more discrete analysis out there, but there's shows a pattern utterly devoid of change - it's like summer still. What that means ... i have no idea. but odd to see that nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Were we hit with any tropical storms in 1979? Belle? Belle was in august of 1976. David was a big GOMEX hit and was pretty wild with decent wind gusts here in sept. 1979 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Were we hit with any tropical storms in 1979? Belle? 1979 fetish ftl. Belle was in August....and we had few more. Totally different tropics. Wasn't 79-80 +ENSO? Edit: Belle 3 years earlier....I should have rememberd that I was in LA in 1979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Everytime you mention 79/80 i want to b**ch slap you, just sayin...LOL Others have mentioned it...but some pretty smart folks pointed out it has no similarities. Anyway, looking forward to tomorrow. Cooler and a a few flakes would be super Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 So stoked to see some flakes tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Regarding last nights discussion on Dec 23 1997 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/winter/winter.html Dec. 21-23, 1997 Freezing Rain from Kansas to Pennsylvania and a Burst of Heavy Snow in New England Same system as above. Weakening upper low and associated surface system moved from KS to IN spreading a swath of generally light freezing rain from the Central Plains to the southern Great Lakes. Strong warm air advection moved into western NY and over PA late in the day on the 22nd. Surface temperatures ranged from just below freezing, in parts of PA, down to the lower 20's in parts of NY. Secondary low pressure formed in advance of the approaching upper trough and strengthened off the Mid Atlantic coast early on the 23rd. This secondary storm brought a quick, but significant, influx of Atlantic moisture into parts of interior and northeastern MA and southeast NH. Some locally astounding snowfall totals occurred in these areas during the morning. Chatham, MA 12Z Sounding (note deep saturated isothermal layer and SE flow) Have a Look at the 850, 700, and 500 mb Charts as Initialized on the Eta Model for 12Z Dec. 23rd. Here is a 7-frame Loop of the RUC Surface Pressure and Frontogenesis. (Note the strong frontogenesis just east of the axis of heaviest snow. Also, here's a look at the 12Z Surface Temperatures over New England.) A 1415 UTC IR Satellite Image shows the cold cloud tops over the area getting the heaviest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 1979 fetish ftl. Belle was in August....and we had few more. Totally different tropics. Wasn't 79-80 +ENSO? Edit: Belle 3 years earlier....I should have rememberd that I was in LA in 1979. Yeah... I googled after posting. Belle was one of my first wx memories (that and Hot Saturday) One of these years we are due for a stinker dead ratter. Hopefully not this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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