CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 The only SREF members showing much of anything tomorrow are from the Eta members. It'll probably end up as a cold rain with falling temps with maybe a few mangled flakes mixed in before ending. It could be if drier air really works into the lower levels and the only good burst of QPF is when the atmosphere is warmer. I could see it ending in a brief mix or even a 34-35F light snow, but I agree it isn't a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 The Ukie tries to bring it up to a Kev-ORH line. It looks like it's just some mid level frontogenesis due to stretching and deformation. This kind of stuff is tricky, because sometimes a narrow 30-40 mile band has good echoes and can surprise some, or it just doesn't get its act quite together enough and produces virga. I wouldn't get fired up, but for those that haven't seen much of the white stuff, it's gonna generate some interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Euro ensembles have a lot of zonal flow at the end. Temps aren't all that chilly..maybe seasonable to a little above by the end of the run. General theme is for that AK trough to weaken, but we need a phase flip of that EPO. At least the -NAO may give the interior a chance perhaps, but I still hate seeing that AK trough. It's gonna take time...a whole lot of precious time...it's gonna take patience and time...to do it...to do it....to do it....nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Euro ensembles have a lot of zonal flow at the end. Temps aren't all that chilly..maybe seasonable to a little above by the end of the run. General theme is for that AK trough to weaken, but we need a phase flip of that EPO. At least the -NAO may give the interior a chance perhaps, but I still hate seeing that AK trough. It's gonna take time...a whole lot of precious time...it's gonna take patience and time...to do it...to do it....to do it....nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I'm locking 1 inch tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 What about my MJO question from this morning bumped a page back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 oh yeah locked and loaded, and I agree with Kevin, his area down into ri and interior mass stand the best chance, just want to see a mangled flake here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Bumping this for the answer and some education please. TYIA. It's a very weak wave right now Jerry. It may explain why we will have this cold snap, but with a weak wave like that, it's also possible the other factors could override any tropical forcing. The problem is that the MJO wave is going to be back in the IO as the wave circles around that diagram. Phase 3-5 will continue to support the AK trough as the latent heat from tropical forcing will help support the pattern and stabilize it. If we can get a modest wave into phase 6 and beyond, it could give that trough a kick in the nads and nudge it further west..or east for that matter. Also I think this time of year with changing wavelengths adds some "noise" to these waves. In other words, weak waves may not have much of an influence with all the natural atmospheric adjustment going on, imo anyways. A stronger wave would probably have more of a say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 The Ukie tries to bring it up to a Kev-ORH line. It looks like it's just some mid level frontogenesis due to stretching and deformation. This kind of stuff is tricky, because sometimes a narrow 30-40 mile band has good echoes and can surprise some, or it just doesn't get its act quite together enough and produces virga. I wouldn't get fired up, but for those that haven't seen much of the white stuff, it's gonna generate some interest. If the 18z GFS continues it, I would consider the possibility of it ending as some -SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 It's a very weak wave right now Jerry. It may explain why we will have this cold snap, but with a weak wave like that, it's also possible the other factors could override any tropical forcing. The problem is that the MJO wave is going to be back in the IO as the wave circles around that diagram. Phase 3-5 will continue to support the AK trough as the latent heat from tropical forcing will help support the pattern and stabilize it. If we can get a modest wave into phase 6 and beyond, it could give that trough a kick in the nads and nudge it further west..or east for that matter. Also I think this time of year with changing wavelengths adds some "noise" to these waves. In other words, weak waves may not have much of an influence with all the natural atmospheric adjustment going on, imo anyways. A stronger wave would probably have more of a say. Thank you Scott. That explains it perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 GFS ensembles are trying to retrograde the AK death star back towards Siberia. It's still a rather crappy pattern, but the -NAO does try to assert itself. I think Ryan and/or Phil mentioned it...but we also have to flush the Pacific taint out of Canada if we want some sustained cold. The will take an EPO phase change. However the cold might be satisfactory at times for the interior anyways. It still gonna take at least the 1st week of December and likely at least through mid month to rid this type of pattern. Remember though, that "pattern" is an average term to describe the period within question. Of course we may be able to sneak something in when the pattern temporarily cooperates. It's slowly trying to get better, but patience my friends. Two aspects I find intriguing about that feature. 1, if you look at the D8-10 means of both the ECM and GFS they agree reasonably well over all on a pattern that doesn't seem to support it even being there, yet it persists... It's a 5 contoured black hole with no corresponding mass-balanced positive anomaly within teleconnector buck shot so it's a small bit of wonder why it is sitting there drilling a hole in the Earth. 2, Think back to last week... circa 8 or 9 days back, when the means had a -EPO, or quasi -EPO, in that exact same location. Strange that such precision in opposition to those earlier depictions robs us of our conviction - er, something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Two aspects I find intriguing about that feature. 1, if you look at the D8-10 means of both the ECM and GFS the agree reasonably well over all on a pattern that doesn't support it even being there, yet it persists... It's a 5 contoured black hole with no corresponding mass-balanced positive anomaly withint teleconnector buck shot so it's a small bit of wonder why it is sitting there drilling a hole in the Earth. 2, Think back to last week... circa 8 or 9 days back, when the means had a -EPO, or quasi -EPO, in that exact same location. Strange that such precision in opposition to those earlier depictions robs us of our conviction - er, something like that. Tip, any thoughts on storm "threat" next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Tip, any thoughts on storm "threat" next week? I dunno, seemin' kind of like we're embedded in an era when the cosmic dildo's all lubed up and ready to go. In other words, count on the downshot result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I dunno, seemin' kind of like we're embedded in an era when the cosmic dildo's all lubed up and ready to go. In other words, count on the downshot result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I dunno, seemin' kind of like we're embedded in an era when the cosmic dildo's all lubed up and ready to go. In other words, count on the downshot result. I'm kind of with Ray on the incredible ability for the mother nature to moon us while holding her middle finger flung through her legs backwards at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I dunno, seemin' kind of like we're embedded in an era when the cosmic dildo's all lubed up and ready to go. In other words, count on the downshot result. interestingly it has been quite the opposite. Overperformers have DOMINATED Since Boxing day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 LOL, I remember Jerry's post. 20 days later, he was almost arrested for indecent exposure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Two aspects I find intriguing about that feature. 1, if you look at the D8-10 means of both the ECM and GFS they agree reasonably well over all on a pattern that doesn't seem to support it even being there, yet it persists... It's a 5 contoured black hole with no corresponding mass-balanced positive anomaly within teleconnector buck shot so it's a small bit of wonder why it is sitting there drilling a hole in the Earth. 2, Think back to last week... circa 8 or 9 days back, when the means had a -EPO, or quasi -EPO, in that exact same location. Strange that such precision in opposition to those earlier depictions robs us of our conviction - er, something like that. It certainly seems stable for now, especially with the MJO going into phase 3-5 which at least helps support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Wow, 18z GFS really bullish tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Thank you Scott. That explains it perfectly. That was pretty darn good. How do you produce that graph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 interestingly it has been quite the opposite. Overperformers have DOMINATED Since Boxing day. Well....arguably yes....last winter, the tornado day, and the Halloweenie storm. Irene kind of pooped out vs potential. Yes she did plenty of damage but the expected was worse than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 It certainly seems stable for now, especially with the MJO going into phase 3-5 which at least helps support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Wow, 18z GFS really bullish tomorrow. Yes it is, Even flakes here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 That was pretty darn good. How do you produce that graph? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml It might be a little complicated to understand, Dave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 The BELIEVE storm is delivering the goods, 1-3 across sne, enjoy fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 The GFS brings a finger of moisture to western and central areas first, then translates it east. It blossoms a bit more as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 There is some low level dry air from downsloping winds, but that's some healthy omega that is progged near 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Flakes tomorrow late day for most. It IS interesting that in this most torchy fall of all we've had snow chances that exceed the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Wow 18z GFS is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Drops close to .25" here after fropa but is it right, Thats the question, The Nam is dry up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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