Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I actually have a handful of below normal days in my 7 day. You have any snow tomorrow What do you have for highs on T-giving? if it went out to day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 You have any snow tomorrow What do you have for highs on T-giving? if it went out to day 8 Probably would have climo for Thanksgiving. I'm a touch below climo for Wednesday in case we do see a storm passing underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 +10 to +15 lol. possibly. hopefully not that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 12z continues to show a torch for the forseeable future. Does anyone have access to the Euro monthlies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 GFS is the ultimate weenie solution for CT next week http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=11&model_dd=16&model_init_hh=12&fhour=174¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false I give this a <5% chance of verifying. Even that may be too generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 GFS is the ultimate weenie solution for CT next week http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=11&model_dd=16&model_init_hh=12&fhour=174¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false I give this a <5% chance of verifying. Even that may be too generous. Your right, To generous for a 7 day gfs prog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 JB apparently continues to draw comparisions to the way the pattern evolved at this time in November 1950 and November 1974. Only thing is, both Novembers were a lot cooler than this one has been so far. November 1950 saw an incredible snowstorm around the 25th, while early December 1974 saw a big storm for places in Michigan, but nothing much for Toronto or Ottawa. He thinks a big trough will develop in the east around American Thanksgiving week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 JB apparently continues to draw comparisions to the way the pattern evolved at this time in November 1950 and November 1974. Only thing is, both Novembers were a lot cooler than this one has been so far. November 1950 saw an incredible snowstorm around the 25th, while early December 1974 saw a big storm for places in Michigan, but nothing much for Toronto or Ottawa. He thinks a big trough will develop in the east around American Thanksgiving week. Every very warm month seems to be just a bit warmer than those very warm ones years before. For some this month is likely to break the record from November 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 18z NAM is epic for snow chances with this frontal dingleberry Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 18z NAM is epic for snow chances with this frontal dingleberry Thursday. unfortunately i think it's a little less fun than its 12z predecessor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 18z NAM is epic for snow chances with this frontal dingleberry Thursday. Have the 15z SREF snow prob's come out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 lol. possibly. hopefully not that warm. I tried posting like Kev for a few posts , just ain't got it in me. Looking forward to Dec. still think TDAY week has not been solved yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Hope the cape gets some love, nam cut way back west of there but looks great out dat away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Have the 15z SREF snow prob's come out yet? yeah all things considered, they aren't that bad. 25 to 35% for 1" from parts of CT into RI, your area to the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Have the 15z SREF snow prob's come out yet? yeah all things considered, they aren't that bad. 25 to 35% for 1" from parts of CT into RI, your area to the canal. Do you guys feel this is a legit chance? Haven't been following the board, just read the AFD and saw that they had some interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 18z NAM erases snow threat tomorrow. 15z SREFs look good though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 yeah all things considered, they aren't that bad. 25 to 35% for 1" from parts of CT into RI, your area to the canal. Cool. Just looking at them now. Don't they use some of the 12z data though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Do you guys feel this is a legit chance? Haven't been following the board, just read the AFD and saw that they had some interest. i think there's a decent chance you'll mix or flip briefly tomorrow PM. tougher out my way i think but maybe even here some sloppy flakes mix in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 yeah all things considered, they aren't that bad. 25 to 35% for 1" from parts of CT into RI, your area to the canal. Maybe 1 inch here lalalalolli's to 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Sneaky Scooter anafrontal tomorrow? If it happens, the GFS did a nice job showing this yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 High temperatures tomorrow may occur at midnight tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 didnt think 1 or 2 inches was even possible but now im starting to wonder SREFs looking alot better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 GFS ensembles are trying to retrograde the AK death star back towards Siberia. It's still a rather crappy pattern, but the -NAO does try to assert itself. I think Ryan and/or Phil mentioned it...but we also have to flush the Pacific taint out of Canada if we want some sustained cold. The will take an EPO phase change. However the cold might be satisfactory at times for the interior anyways. It still gonna take at least the 1st week of December and likely at least through mid month to rid this type of pattern. Remember though, that "pattern" is an average term to describe the period within question. Of course we may be able to sneak something in when the pattern temporarily cooperates. It's slowly trying to get better, but patience my friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 The only SREF members showing much of anything tomorrow are from the Eta members. It'll probably end up as a cold rain with falling temps with maybe a few mangled flakes mixed in before ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 GFS ensembles are trying to retrograde the AK death star back towards Siberia. It's still a rather crappy pattern, but the -NAO does try to assert itself. I think Ryan and/or Phil mentioned it...but we also have to flush the Pacific taint out of Canada if we want some sustained cold. The will take an EPO phase change. However the cold might be satisfactory at times for the interior anyways. It still gonna take at least the 1st week of December and likely at least through mid month to rid this type of pattern. Remember though, that "pattern" is an average term to describe the period within question. Of course we may be able to sneak something in when the pattern temporarily cooperates. It's slowly trying to get better, but patience my friends. Yeah GFS ensembles show hope by day 15. Unfortunately I think they're probably too fast in breaking things down and once we flip the EPO it will take time to replenish the cold in NOAM. So we'll get there... I think everyone is happy we're dealing with this now and not later in the season. I think we'll probably see December average above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 6-12 lollies to 18"? Biggest storm of the winter? Deck destroying wet snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Shouldn't things be improving? MJO in a good area per this chart. http://cawcr.gov.au/...Last40days.html And the forecast? It would seem we should be near the end of this by the end of this month baed on mjo. Bumping this for the answer and some education please. TYIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Euro ensembles pretty ugly at day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 The GFS as a very strong burst of lift tomorrow aftn. It looks unusually strong, but would surprise many I think....IF it happened. The euro also has a good burst of lift in the mid levels from 18z through 00z. Yesterday it looked like it would be a little further west, but it slid east slightly. Actually, the Euro came towards the GFS a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Cool. Just looking at them now. Don't they use some of the 12z data though? bob, to be honest, i'm not sure how exactly they work with respect to data initialization. i know they are considered to be 3 hours OLDER. i'm sure someone on here knows. supposedly though, they will eventually be run on the same schedule as everything else which should make them better because as it currently works they don't incorporate the 00z and 12z upper air soundings . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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