Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Once the pattern begins to change it's not going to be an immediate flip to cold. It's going to take some time. There seems little doubt it's a torch pattern through 12/1 and odds remain pretty good that we have an above normal pattern for the first week in December. It's ugly now... no doubt about it. But no one was calling for a month of +10 to +15 either lol. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Oh hey 12z gfs at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Oh hey 12z gfs at 168 Probably too warm for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Once the pattern begins to change it's not going to be an immediate flip to cold. It's going to take some time. There seems little doubt it's a torch pattern through 12/1 and odds remain pretty good that we have an above normal pattern for the first week in December. It's ugly now... no doubt about it. But no one was calling for a month of +10 to +15 either lol. yep good point. that's a key thing...even if/when we start to see things break down and shift around, there's always a substantial lag between the global wave configuration and actually feeling and seeing a sensible change in the weather here. sometimes it's a solid week to 10 days later...which is why i think mid-dec isn't unrealistic. plus, we also see a tendency for guidance to break down patterns too quickly or abruptly - so have to factor that in too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 yep good point. that's a key thing...even if/when we start to see things break down and shift around, there's always a substantial lag between the global wave configuration and actually feeling and seeing a sensible change in the weather here. sometimes it's a solid week to 10 days later...which is why i think mid-dec isn't unrealistic. plus, we also see a tendency for guidance to break down patterns too quickly or abruptly - so have to factor that in too. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 yep good point. that's a key thing...even if/when we start to see things break down and shift around, there's always a substantial lag between the global wave configuration and actually feeling and seeing a sensible change in the weather here. sometimes it's a solid week to 10 days later...which is why i think mid-dec isn't unrealistic. plus, we also see a tendency for guidance to break down patterns too quickly or abruptly - so have to factor that in too. Yeah especially given how stable the NHEM pattern is from the monster omega block over Europe and the neverending PV over Alaska. Even once the pattern does change there isn't going to be a lot of cold air on this side of the globe... it's going to take some time to get and develop some cold to dive into our part of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 i'm lockin in 2-4 on blue hills tommorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Probably too warm for most of us looks decent at 850 and probably flips to snow on the backside atleast? Long way out, but still something to watch considering the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 looks decent at 850 and probably flips to snow on the backside atleast? Long way out, but still something to watch considering the pattern. It has come and gone on the models the last few runs, The Euro does not have it right now until it does and gets inside of 5 days its a reach but something to at least watch for other then what the high temps will be every day, Timing these systems with the cold shots is going to be key in this crappy pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 looks decent at 850 and probably flips to snow on the backside atleast? Long way out, but still something to watch considering the pattern. it's too warm in the low levels for most of CT/RI/E/SE MA...it would be a pike north type of thing verbatim on that outcome. but it's hr ~170 so a grain of salt kind of thing. edit: though i guess it might be cold enough in parts of E MA (bos / ne ma etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 it's too warm in the low levels for most of CT/RI/E/SE MA...it would be a pike north type of thing verbatim on that outcome. but it's hr ~170 so a grain of salt kind of thing. Yeah borderline for higher elevs in NW areas... rain for most of us. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 it's too warm in the low levels for most of CT/RI/E/SE MA...it would be a pike north type of thing verbatim on that outcome. but it's hr ~170 so a grain of salt kind of thing. edit: though i guess it might be cold enough in parts of E MA (bos / ne ma etc) looks like a Will event. Is this the same system the Euro was showing the other night? Or is it a different shortwave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 i'm lockin in 2-4 on blue hills tommorrow. Flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 looks like a Will event. Is this the same system the Euro was showing the other night? Or is it a different shortwave? not sure - i didn't invest any time into what the euro was showing for tday the other day. there's definitely been a trend to flatten heights some for a time next week across the northern tier so maybe something does a scooter special and sneaks out south of SNE before we see a big rebound after turkey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 looks like a Will event. Is this the same system the Euro was showing the other night? Or is it a different shortwave? It was the same one, The 0z euro has it surpressed south thru virginia but had it tracking just south of SNE a couple runs ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 not sure - i didn't invest any time into what the euro was showing for tday the other day. there's definitely been a trend to flatten heights some for a time next week across the northern tier so maybe something does a scooter special and sneaks out south of SNE before we see a big rebound after turkey? Yeah I did notice that...some of the models had a big torch and they are now flattening the flow and keeping the warm temperatures south of New England the midwest. Saturday and Sunday will be relatively warm but other than that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 So basically, the general theme is dead kittens everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 12z GFS looks interesting for some next week. Loooong way to go there. I'm more intrigued by the end of the week and possibility of some flakes flying. NAM/GFS bring measurable QPF to the area and with enough evap. cooling we may see some flakes. Also can we please stay on topic. I just got on here and cleaned up a ton of posts. We have a banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 12z GFS looks interesting for some next week. Loooong way to go there. I'm more intrigued by the end of the week and possibility of some flakes flying. NAM/GFS bring measurable QPF to the area and with enough evap. cooling we may see some flakes. Also can we please stay on topic. I just got on here and cleaned up a ton of posts. We have a banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 "Stable"worldwide pattern is the word of the Week. Gonna puke next time I read that. Unstable is what I would call the Models, guess those 70's for Mon with + 18 850's are off the table? At least during this stable period the days have trended cooler than originally progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 12z GFS looks interesting for some next week. Loooong way to go there. I'm more intrigued by the end of the week and possibility of some flakes flying. NAM/GFS bring measurable QPF to the area and with enough evap. cooling we may see some flakes. Also can we please stay on topic. I just got on here and cleaned up a ton of posts. We have a banter thread. I like how the gfs strengthens that low off the coast. Could get really interesting if the euro hops in... at least we have something interesting to track now instead of euro weekly and monthly maps.. Pretty damn good phase for 7 days out.. a clear phase between the southern Vort and northern streaming Maybe this is one of those years where we have above normal temps, then we get a coldshot with a bomb then back to above normal What do ensembles show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I like the GFS, gives us some love on Thanksgiving eve.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 "Stable"worldwide pattern is the word of the Week. Gonna puke next time I read that. Unstable is what I would call the Models, guess those 70's for Mon with + 18 850's are off the table? At least during this stable period the days have trended cooler than originally progged. i don't think that's a fair way to look at it though, steve. that's ignoring the globe and instead dissecting an 8 day model output for the extreme northeastern quadrant of the conus...not exactly the same thing. those big 850s are still there - just a day earlier and not as big...like +9C vs +14-16 (which was kind of ridiculous anyway which you know) there's always going to be run-to-run variability...but the *overall theme* is the same. huge black hole of death trough out west with a pronounced SE ridge showing itself at times. some of the day-to-day shifts we see are exactly why folks have said ad nauseum that just because the pattern is a warm one, doesn't mean it can't deliver now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 i don't think that's a fair way to look at it though, steve. that's ignoring the globe and instead dissecting an 8 day model output for the extreme northeastern quadrant of the conus...not exactly the same thing. those big 850s are still there - just a day earlier and not as big...like +9C vs +14-16 (which was kind of ridiculous anyway which you know) there's always going to be run-to-run variability...but the *overall theme* is the same. huge black hole of death trough out west with a pronounced SE ridge showing itself at times. some of the day-to-day shifts we see are exactly why folks have said ad nauseum that just because the pattern is a warm one, doesn't mean it can't deliver now and then. I know it's stable just get sick of reading that over and over and over. My point is we should concentrate near term, after 4 days the models have huge sensible WX errors lately, hence unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 If we can get the Thanksgiving storm to dig a little more, I think it would wrap even more cold air into that system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 If we can get the Thanksgiving storm to dig a little more, I think it would wrap even more cold air into that system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I think we can start to lock at least some flakes in the air tom afteroon evening across parts of sne, maybe a coating across interior se mass and ri? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 If we can get the Thanksgiving storm to dig a little more, I think it would wrap even more cold air into that system Just awful. What makes you even think there will be a storm that day? Pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I think we can start to lock at least some flakes in the air tom afteroon evening across parts of sne, maybe a coating across interior se mass and ri? There are some weenie flakes on the euro for tomorow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Just awful. What makes you even think there will be a storm that day? Pretty much Did you see the GFS or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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