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Late November/Early December upcoming wx.

CoastalWx

By CoastalWx,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Posted

The duration was close...it only lasted 5-6 hours. The intensity is what totally f**ked the forecast. Why weould anyone in their right mind forecast 5-6" per hour for 2 hours from that?

Nevermind 1-2" per hour.

But even 5-6 hrs of 1-2" doesn't go with that image from NARR...lol. What a sneaky event.

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

Yeah exactly. I mean, there are signs of some possible S+, but what the hell explains the coverage and duration? There are likely several factors that worked in complete harmony to produce this.

Quick mover it seemed per NARR maps--but just judging by the four maps they offer, somebody would have to be literally on some kind of high to forecast the amounts that verified.

Now, this is often true in mesoscale situations...a lot of times in the big events, the totals in the big bands are higher than the official forecasts.

But this is not a big event. The H5 trough is transient, the shortwave is very robust, there's no areas of strong vorticity that jump out at you. The H85 low does close off at an ideal time, but the H7 low remains open and weak.

Somebody above said something about the wind direction and ocean temperatures--I think this certainly had something to do with it.

Here is the wonderfully detailed SST data which I could find..

971221.355.2220.n12.jpg

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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure that did the trick though...since it was widespread 40dbz and even a lot of 50dbz. The sounding further north was less conductive for convection than OKX.

We have never seen anything all that eye-popping on the soundings from that day. Even if upton was supporting a bit of convection, is that much different than many other times they were in the warmer side of a weak low?

That storm is just amazing...a lot of question marks.

post-673-0-98206000-1321424093.gif

post-673-0-83851600-1321424134.gif

Smow of this crap probably explains it. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/presentations/frontogenesis_lmk2.pdf.

H7 and H8.5 that day did look unusually moist in the NE quad of the country that day.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

But even 5-6 hrs of 1-2" doesn't go with that image from NARR...lol. What a sneaky event.

No it doesn't but at least 2-3 hours of 2" per hour could be explained away by a gravity wave or something.

The 6" per hour crap cannot be explained surrounded by 2-3 per hour on each side by 2 hours.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Quick mover it seemed per NARR maps--but just judging by the four maps they offer, somebody would have to be literally on some kind of high to forecast the amounts that verified.

Now, this is often true in mesoscale situations...a lot of times in the big events, the totals in the big bands are higher than the official forecasts.

But this is not a big event. The H5 trough is transient, the shortwave is very robust, there's no areas of strong vorticity that jump out at you. The H85 low does close off at an ideal time, but the H7 low remains open and weak.

Somebody above said something about the wind direction and ocean temperatures--I think this certainly had something to do with it.

Here is the wonderfully detailed SST data which I could find..

971221.355.2220.n12.jpg

You don't get those rates without adequate moisture, so that helps. But I guess the question is...what is the forcing behind it? What was the mechanism to lift that air? You would think that by looking at those maps

there was defintely some sort of convergence and forcing which can happen even with open waves. It still doesn't explain 6"+ hour rates.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

You don't get those rates without adequate moisture, so that helps. But I guess the question is...what is the forcing behind it?

Yeah we have had countless events with torching SSTs....but they don't produce like that event did. There's always an explanation with hindsight, but the problem is most of the those explanations have countless examples where this did not happen.

Why did the Nov 2002 clipper/redeveloper not produce 6" per hour?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Yeah we have had countless events with torching SSTs....but they don't produce like that event did. There's always an explanation with hindsight, but the problem is most of the those explanations have countless examples where this did not happen.

Why did the Nov 2002 clipper/redeveloper not produce 6" per hour?

We don't have enough resources to really make a good assumption. I would love a complete radar loop from that day. Maybe looking at how the thing develops can give a few clues. Who knows.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted 
DEC-97 FOR WORCESTER, MA (1011')                	LAT=42.3N LON= 71.9W 
            	TEMPERATURE                   	PRECIPITATION
     	ACTUAL       	NORMAL
   	HI   LO  AVG 	HI   LO  AVG   DEPT 	AMNT   SNOW SNCVR   HDD
1  	36   24   30 	41   27   34 	-4 	0.17  	T	0 	35
2  	34   24   29 	41   26   33 	-4    	T  	T	0 	36
3  	44   26   35 	40   26   33 	+2 	0.00	0.0	0 	30
4  	43   34   39 	40   25   33 	+6 	0.04	0.0	0 	26
5  	38   30   34 	39   25   32 	+2 	0.01	0.1	0 	31
6  	36   26   31 	39   25   32 	-1 	0.00	0.0	0 	34
7  	36   25   31 	39   24   32 	-1 	0.00	0.0	0 	34
8  	41   26   34 	38   24   31 	+3 	0.00	0.0	0 	31
9  	37   24   31 	38   24   31 	+0 	0.00	0.0	0 	34
10  	36   26   31 	38   23   31 	+0 	0.00	0.0	0 	34
11  	30   21   26 	37   23   30 	-4 	0.00	0.0	0 	39
12  	33   26   30 	37   23   30 	+0    	T  	T	0 	35
13  	34   24   29 	37   22   30 	-1 	0.00	0.0	0 	36
14  	35   14   25 	36   22   29 	-4 	0.01  	T	0 	40
15  	34   11   23 	36   22   29 	-6 	0.00	0.0	0 	42
16  	50   22   36 	36   21   29 	+7 	0.00	0.0	0 	29
17  	47   30   39 	36   21   28	+11 	0.00	0.0	0 	26
18  	40   24   32 	35   21   28 	+4 	0.00	0.0	0 	33
19  	43   29   36 	35   20   28 	+8 	0.00	0.0	0 	29
20  	39   27   33 	35   20   27 	+6    	T  	T	0 	32
21  	28   16   22 	35   20   27 	-5 	0.00	0.0	0 	43
22  	31   15   23 	34   20   27 	-4 	0.00	0.0	0 	42
23  	30   24   27 	34   19   27 	+0 	0.94   18.0	0 	38
24  	33   25   29 	34   19   26 	+3    	T  	T	0 	36
25  	37   26   32 	34   19   26 	+6 	0.53	0.1	0 	33
26  	42   32   37 	33   19   26	+11 	0.00	0.0	0 	28
27  	34   29   32 	33   18   26 	+6 	0.01  	T	0 	33
28  	30   15   23 	33   18   26 	-3    	T  	T	0 	42
29  	35   17   26 	33   18   25 	+1 	0.35	3.5	0 	39
30  	40   26   33 	33   18   25 	+8 	0.26	0.3	0 	32
31  	29	6   18 	33   18   25 	-7    	T	0.3	0 	47
                	TOTALS FOR ORH   
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE   50     	TOTAL PRECIP    	2.32
LOWEST TEMPERATURE 	6     	TOTAL SNOWFALL  	22.3 
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 30.0     	NORMAL PRECIP   	3.80
DEPARTURE FROM NORM +1.1    	
HEATING DEGREE DAYS 1079
NORMAL DEGREE DAYS  1119

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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LOL...that only shows your lingering sting from Dec 1992. That was a bad one for SE MA...Blizzard Warning that turned into nothing.

It was a wild storm regardless which made it interesting, but frustration mounted to the point where I swear I was close to shedding a tear. That was my storm where I was locked in for 18". Even my folks were telling me and getting me all pumped up. I'll never forget those words..."Wow Scott you've never seen that much snow!". Epic fail. At least that winter turned out well.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I guess we should be reminiscing when we are about to experience this 

DEC-01 FOR WORCESTER, MA (1011')                	LAT=42.3N LON= 71.9W 
            	TEMPERATURE                   	PRECIPITATION
     	ACTUAL       	NORMAL
   	HI   LO  AVG 	HI   LO  AVG   DEPT 	AMNT   SNOW SNCVR   HDD
1  	64   43   54 	41   27   34	+20 	0.00	0.0	0 	11
2  	47   36   42 	41   26   33 	+9 	0.00	0.0	0 	23
3  	51   31   41 	40   26   33 	+8 	0.00	0.0	0 	24
4  	56   39   48 	40   25   33	+15    	T	0.0	0 	17
5  	61   47   54 	39   25   32	+22    	T	0.0	0 	11
6  	67   51   59 	39   25   32	+27 	0.00	0.0	0  	6
7  	52   37   45 	39   24   32	+13 	0.00	0.0	0 	20
8  	37   27   32 	38   24   31 	+1 	0.14	1.4	0 	33
9  	33   24   29 	38   24   31 	-2 	0.35	7.6	0 	36
10  	38   25   32 	38   23   31 	+1 	0.01	0.0	0 	33
11  	47   36   42 	37   23   30	+12    	T	0.0	0 	23
12  	37   31   34 	37   23   30 	+4 	0.00	0.0	0 	31
13  	47   33   40 	37   22   30	+10 	0.07  	T	0 	25
14  	49   44   47 	36   22   29	+18 	0.40	0.0	0 	18
15  	44   26   35 	36   22   29 	+6 	0.09  	T	0 	30
16  	35   24   30 	36   21   29 	+1 	0.00	0.0	0 	35
17  	32   26   29 	36   21   28 	+1 	0.53	1.2	0 	36
18  	35   32   34 	35   21   28 	+6 	0.52	0.4	0 	31
19  	41   32   37 	35   20   28 	+9 	0.00	0.0	0 	28
20  	41   30   36 	35   20   27 	+9 	0.02	0.0	0 	29
21  	34   26   30 	35   20   27 	+3    	T  	T	0 	35
22  	34   22   28 	34   20   27 	+1 	0.00	0.0	0 	37
23  	41   22   32 	34   19   27 	+5    	T	0.0	0 	33
24  	43   29   36 	34   19   26	+10 	0.64	0.0	0 	29
25  	33   25   29 	34   19   26 	+3 	0.00	0.0	0 	36
26  	35   24   30 	33   19   26 	+4 	0.00	0.0	0 	35
27  	28   16   22 	33   18   26 	-4 	0.00	0.0	0 	43
28  	32   17   25 	33   18   26 	-1    	T  	T	0 	40
29  	32   21   27 	33   18   25 	+2 	0.00	0.0	0 	38
30  	30   19   25 	33   18   25 	+0 	0.00	0.0	0 	40
31  	27   14   21 	33   18   25 	-4 	0.00	0.0	0 	44
                	TOTALS FOR ORH   
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE   67     	TOTAL PRECIP    	2.77
LOWEST TEMPERATURE	14     	TOTAL SNOWFALL  	10.6 (0.0 BOX)
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 35.4     	NORMAL PRECIP   	3.80
DEPARTURE FROM NORM +6.5     	
HEATING DEGREE DAYS  910
NORMAL DEGREE DAYS  1119

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Now that Kevin put the Lesco down, he'll be mowing again by early December with these temps.

Its a great thing that this torch talk can be put to rest....we have 3 great chances at snow in the next 10 days...cold/snowy pattern locked in by Nov 20.

And lets not let Joe off the hook...."Nov 16th, lock it in". (even though he is now gleefully touting the torch....he said Nov 16 is when it flips)

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

Hopefully we are all laughing at the suicides in this thread in 4 weeks....as the MJO goes into phase 6/7 and flushes out that repulsive AK vortex.

That thing is vomit worthy. The only thing more vomit worthy is the consistency among the ensembles. Have you ever seen these forecast height departures at 204 hrs? Off the damn charts.

f204.gif

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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You managed to sneak a significant event in there (7.6). Not bad. I've seen worse months.

ORH can get away with bad patterns at times (it was a 9.0" event...2 days total)...there is a reason the record low snowfall for a winter is 21.2". Climo helps at some point. Doesn't mean it has to be good and lots of cheers though.

A 40" winter here is a disaster like it is a 8-12" disaster there. Its all relative. People in Raleigh, NC would call you assh*les for saying a 11" winter is bad...just like you would call me the same thing for a 50" winter.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

I guess I get 2 references to snow in my forecast. My p/c shows a sliught chance of snow showers tomorrow (not the zfp). and then again on Monday night. So, in spite of the unseasonably warmth, the arrival of flakes--at least in the forecasts--seem to be more or less on schedule. Very conistent with the statements here that talk of how a warm pattern does not preclude the opportunity to pick up snow.

Meanwhile, back to the torch at hand, 42.9/40

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