Late November/Early December upcoming wx.

[snowNH]

Snow event for ALB at the 336 hour panel of the 18Z GFS.

Only 56 more runs to go!

[Damage In Tolland]

This pattern has certainly brought out the worst in people the last week or so. For me personally the promises from so many of a cold and snowy December and then not seeing that come to fruition has been frustrating. Fortunately we've had crushing snows already,,and there's 3 legit shots for some of us over the next week or so. Even a little taste between mild ups is better than nothing as it tickles our fancies as Tom Turkey tickles tushies next week

[Damage In Tolland]

this is one of the worst long wave pattern locks I have ever seen

We are so grateful we don't live in the midatlantic where you have nothing but 28-35 days straight of warmth ahead. Here we have some cold, some mild sprinkled in with a few snow chances every couple of days

[CoastalWx]

This pattern has certainly brought out the worst in people the last week or so. For me personally the promises from so many of a cold and snowy December and then not seeing come to fruition has been frustrating. Fortunately we've had crusshing snows already,,and there's 3 legit shots for some of us over the next week or so. Even a little taste between mild ups is better than nothing as it tickles our fancies as Tom Turkey tickles tushies next week

All it takes is for a good 10-14 day period in December, to have snowy and even colder than normal. I don't think anyone totally locked in a snowy December.

[snowNH]

We are so grateful we don't live in the midatlantic where you have nothing but 28-35 days straight of warmth ahead. Here we have some cold, some mild sprinkled in with a few snow chances every couple of days

And have already seen a once in a winter lifetime in 2009-2010 lol

[snowNH]

All it takes is for a good 10-14 day period in December, to have snowy and even colder than normal. I don't think anyone totally locked in a snowy December.

I'm just hoping this sets us up for a big period from Jan 1 to March . Can't remember the last time we had a big March. I have a feeling were gonna be looking back at this thread on like Xmas and absolutely laughing as were tracking a KU...

[HoarfrostHubb]

There really is no way to spin it. From mountain top to seashore, it's a mild pattern. Hopefully we can sneak in a rogue event, but may be tough along the coastline.

Sneaky rogues

Winter will b**ch slap us one of these days, until then we fester

[CoastalWx]

This pattern has certainly brought out the worst in people the last week or so. For me personally the promises from so many of a cold and snowy December and then not seeing that come to fruition has been frustrating. Fortunately we've had crushing snows already,,and there's 3 legit shots for some of us over the next week or so. Even a little taste between mild ups is better than nothing as it tickles our fancies as Tom Turkey tickles tushies next week

It's brought out wish casting too.

[ORH_wxman]

This pattern has certainly brought out the worst in people the last week or so. For me personally the promises from so many of a cold and snowy December and then not seeing that come to fruition has been frustrating. Fortunately we've had crusshing snows already,,and there's 3 legit shots for some of us over the next week or so. Even a little taste between mild ups is better than nothing as it tickles our fancies as Tom Turkey tickles tushies next week

Its about expectations. I think some were expecting more snow events in November after getting smoked before Halloween. November snow events greater than 3 inches aren't that common...esp outside of the elevated terrain of NNE/CNE. Even here, our avg November snowfall is about 3.2".

Hopefully the pattern flips in December, and if it does, we can be very happy this torch pattern happened in November and early December versus a month later. People shouldn't be getting overly worked up about a crappy pattern in November and early December. They should get worked up if this exact same outlook shows up on December 5th or 7th...basically showing a torch through New Years, but thankfully we aren't at that point yet and hopefully we don't get there.

[weathafella]

The rubber band always snaps..always. We don't la di dah to +5 3 month departures. Patience.

[HoarfrostHubb]

This pattern has certainly brought out the worst in people the last week or so. For me personally the promises from so many of a cold and snowy December and then not seeing that come to fruition has been frustrating. Fortunately we've had crushing snows already,,and there's 3 legit shots for some of us over the next week or so. Even a little taste between mild ups is better than nothing as it tickles our fancies as Tom Turkey tickles tushies next week

Second half of Dec will rock...if far enough north

[powderfreak]

This pattern has certainly brought out the worst in people the last week or so. For me personally the promises from so many of a cold and snowy December and then not seeing that come to fruition has been frustrating. Fortunately we've had crushing snows already,,and there's 3 legit shots for some of us over the next week or so. Even a little taste between mild ups is better than nothing as it tickles our fancies as Tom Turkey tickles tushies next week

It really hasn't been as bad as you are making it seem, haha. Its just warm so no one can even try to spin it as being cold or looking like it will get cold anytime soon.

[snowNH]

It really hasn't been as bad as you are making it seem, haha. Its just warm so no one can even try to spin it as being cold or looking like it will get cold anytime soon.

Right now.. I'd take 60s and sunny over 40s and cloudy any day... It feels good walking into and out of work with just a tee-shirt on. If its not gonna be winter cold then whats the point?

[CoastalWx]

Sneaky rogues

Winter will b**ch slap us one of these days, until then we fester

It will come around. That massive Scandinavian ridge sometimes like to retrograde to Greenland after a while. We may see ridging develop very late this month. That is step 1.

Step 2 is to try and flush some of the crappy airmass from the Pacific out of southern Canada, by getting the EPO to switch phase. That's going to take more time imo. The AK trough is stable in the whole globe is in this stable 4 wave type pattern it seems. Once we get rid of that ridge in eastern Asia, it will help get the ball rolling by pumping up heights into the Aleutians and AK. That in turn will help dump a load of fresh cold air into Canada. The whole process is aided by mountain torque stuff in Asia, which I am not too familiar with. Perhaps Sam can enlighten us more. Either way, that's what we need to happen imo.

[Damage In Tolland]

It's brought out wish casting too.

It's also brought out too much preaching and caution

[HoarfrostHubb]

It will come around. That massive Scandinavian ridge sometimes like to retrograde to Greenland after a while. We may see ridging develop very late this month. That is step 1.

Step 2 is to try and flush some of the crappy airmass from the Pacific out of southern Canada, by getting the EPO to switch phase. That's going to take more time imo. The AK trough is stable in the whole globe is in this stable 4 wave type pattern it seems. Once we get rid of that ridge in eastern Asia, it will help get the ball rolling by pumping up heights into the Aleutians and AK. That in turn will help dump a load of fresh cold air into Canada. The whole process is aided by mountain torque stuff in Asia, which I am not too familiar with. Perhaps Sam can enlighten us more. Either way, that's what we need to happen imo.

Isn't Tippy well versed in that as well? Where does the fresh cold have to come from? Siberia or the Arctic? Kkatchamka needs to send us some love

[Damage In Tolland]

It really hasn't been as bad as you are making it seem, haha. Its just warm so no one can even try to spin it as being cold or looking like it will get cold anytime soon.

It certainly has..People have been downright rude and nasty to each other in some cases. I'm talking friends lashing out at good friends with hurtful things. Not to mention the whining and complaining

[ORH_wxman]

It will come around. That massive Scandinavian ridge sometimes like to retrograde to Greenland after a while. We may see ridging develop very late this month. That is step 1.

Step 2 is to try and flush some of the crappy airmass from the Pacific out of southern Canada, by getting the EPO to switch phase. That's going to take more time imo. The AK trough is stable in the whole globe is in this stable 4 wave type pattern it seems. Once we get rid of that ridge in eastern Asia, it will help get the ball rolling by pumping up heights into the Aleutians and AK. That in turn will help dump a load of fresh cold air into Canada. The whole process is aided by mountain torque stuff in Asia, which I am not too familiar with. Perhaps Sam can enlighten us more. Either way, that's what we need to happen imo.

Given the stable nature of the pattern, I think the key is going to be getting that MJO wave into phase 6 as we get 10 days into December or so.

Phase 3 and 4 really help support the AK vortex even more and then it loses support by phase 5 and phase 6 actually promotes ridging there...in December. So I think our hope is that a robust MJO wave rips around and into phase 6/7 post-December 10th to shuffle out this crappy pattern.

[CoastalWx]

Isn't Tippy well versed in that as well? Where does the fresh cold have to come from? Siberia or the Arctic? Kkatchamka needs to send us some love

It helps with cross polar flow from the arctic. For a simplistic view, picture a dome of cold air sitting near the pole. Now poke a ridge into this dome and you dislodge it and move it around. Sometimes it breaks off into a couple of pieces, or the whole darn thing moves to the south. Either way, a ridge into the AK region usually helps flood Canada with big cold.

[HoarfrostHubb]

It certainly has..People have been downright rude and nasty to each other in some cases. I'm talking friends lashing out at good friends with hurtful things. Not to mention the whining and complaining

Big man-hugging gtg with heavy heavy snow upcoming Dec 10

All will be forgiven

[powderfreak]

What conditions makenit worth firing up the gun? I know 27F is good, but for how many hours?

You want a wet-bulb of 27F (not ambient) for it to be worth turning the guns on...so if the airmass is dry, we'll make snow around 32F ambient. I've seen places out in Colorado making snow when its in the 45 degrees in the afternoon, but that's because the wet bulb temp is so low due to dry air. You pump enough compressed air and make the water droplets as small as possible, you'll make snow fall from the sky as long as that wet bulb is below 32F. Inside of the snowmaking plume is like its own mini-atmosphere environment with 100% RH and the temp/dew reach the wet bulb equilibrium inside of that plume regardless of whats going on outside of the plume. The problem is its not very efficient when temps are so marginal as 1) accumulation rates are very slow and 2) you need a lot more compressed air than you do at colder temperatures.

14 degrees has been proven in studies to be the optimal snowmaking wet-bulb temperature...that's when you get the optimal size of particles that will accumulate rapidly and still fall to the ground. Below that temperature you end up starting to lose some of the snow to the atmosphere (the particles are not heavy enough to fall to the ground where you want them to) and its very easy for that snowmaking to blow all over the place or rise straight up and form a mini-cloud.

In a perfect world, we would want like 4 straight days of 19F with a dew point in the single digits and light wind, haha.

[powderfreak]

It certainly has..People have been downright rude and nasty to each other in some cases. I'm talking friends lashing out at good friends with hurtful things. Not to mention the whining and complaining

Haha ok... I must've missed some of that. No sense arguing it though as that'll just prove your point

But you can't really get that butt hurt over things said on here, can you? Its an internet forum.

[HoarfrostHubb]

It helps with cross polar flow from the arctic. For a simplistic view, picture a dome of cold air sitting near the pole. Now poke a ridge into this dome and you dislodge it and move it around. Sometimes it breaks off into a couple of pieces, or the whole darn thing moves to the south. Either way, a ridge into the AK region usually helps flood Canada with big cold.

So during, say, Dec 2006, no ridge showed up until mid Jan?

Good description

[Damage In Tolland]

Haha ok... I must've missed some of that. No sense arguing it though as that'll just prove your point

They know who they are..the hurt ones have been hurt,,but continue onwards and upwards

[CoastalWx]

Given the stable nature of the pattern, I think the key is going to be getting that MJO wave into phase 6 as we get 10 days into December or so.

Phase 3 and 4 really help support the AK vortex even more and then it loses support by phase 5 and phase 6 actually promotes ridging there...in December. So I think our hope is that a robust MJO wave rips around and into phase 6/7 post-December 10th to shuffle out this crappy pattern.

Yeah I agree, I think it may take something like tropical forcing from a wave to really give it a good kick in the fanny. It looks like the EC tries to bring it into phase 6, towards mid month.

I'm not too sure what else could dislodge it, other than the typical winter time shuffle I guess. Supposedly, Cohen et al really likes the idea of the rate of change of snowpack in the northern hemisphere to form a -NAO, rather than the actual length of time that the snowpack exists during the month of October. Hopefully, the helps out too...but it doesn't always.

[HoarfrostHubb]

You want a wet-bulb of 27F (not ambient) for it to be worth turning the guns on...so if the airmass is dry, we'll make snow around 32F ambient. I've seen places out in Colorado making snow when its in the 45 degrees in the afternoon, but that's because the wet bulb temp is so low due to dry air. You pump enough compressed air and make the water droplets as small as possible, you'll make snow fall from the sky as long as that wet bulb is below 32F. Inside of the snowmaking plume is like its own mini-atmosphere environment with 100% RH and the temp/dew reach the wet bulb equilibrium inside of that plume regardless of whats going on outside of the plume. The problem is its not very efficient when temps are so marginal as 1) accumulation rates are very slow and 2) you need a lot more compressed air than you do at colder temperatures.

14 degrees has been proven in studies to be the optimal snowmaking wet-bulb temperature...that's when you get the optimal size of particles that will accumulate rapidly and still fall to the ground. Below that temperature you end up starting to lose some of the snow to the atmosphere (the particles are not heavy enough to fall to the ground where you want them to) and its very easy for that snowmaking to blow all over the place or rise straight up and form a mini-cloud.

Yeah, riding on a lift through a plume or skiing in one you can def feel the temp drop. Here's hoping for some cold dry air (unless it snows)

[Damage In Tolland]

Time to fire up the bus..bob heads and pump fists

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVERz5D1YEU&feature=related

[CoastalWx]

So during, say, Dec 2006, no ridge showed up until mid Jan?

Good description

I know it's really a simple way of looking at it..lol, but you get the idea.

January wasn't really any better than December. We did have some ridging in the NPAC, but the vortex in the Bering Sea flooded Canada with warmer air. We also had a good se ridge too. It wasn't until February when we got a better -NAO and the Bering Sea vortex was replaced with positive height anomalies.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I agree, I think it may take something like tropical forcing from a wave to really give it a good kick in the fanny. It looks like the EC tries to bring it into phase 6, towards mid month.

I'm not too sure what else could dislodge it, other than the typical winter time shuffle I guess. Supposedly, Cohen et al really likes the idea of the rate of change of snowpack in the northern hemisphere to form a -NAO, rather than the actual length of time that the snowpack exists during the month of October. Hopefully, the helps out too...but it doesn't always.

Yeah normally we don't really obsess over getting a big MJO wave in the winter when things are good...we'd rather it just rot in the circle of death with minimal impact and leave big blocking to remain stable....but when we have a massive stable vortex sitting over AK, we want something to change and a robust MJO wave is just the ingredient. Unfortunately it's in phases to support the vortex for a couple weeks before we have a shot at kicking it out of there, that's probably why we can be fairly confident it will stick around for a couple weeks more than you normally might have confidence in that forecast interval.

Perhaps the Aleutian ridge can really flex its muscles once the MJO exits phases 3/4...even if it just goes into the COD and doesn't enter phases 6/7. I'd think that we can have some other factors go to work on it should the MJO fail us. That happens in late Jan 2007...it went into the COD and then other factors built a huge -EPO ridge and we went into the freezer the 2nd half of that winter. Too bad we wasted 7-8 weeks before that happened.

[powderfreak]

Yeah, riding on a lift through a plume or skiing in one you can def feel the temp drop. Here's hoping for some cold dry air (unless it snows)

Amen. Glad to hear the chairlift installation at WaWa is going well.

But we are off-topic as usual now... lol.

I just really hope we can get some sustained or lasting cold in here by early December. This pattern has the feel of those times when its cold for a few days, then warms up just in time to rain, then gets cold and windy again for a few days. I hate those winter patterns where it only precipitates when its warm, but between those periods of wet weather, its a brutal dry cold. If this was January, that's probably what would be happening...a couple days of highs in the teens with low wind chills, then it warms up to 40F and rains, then a front comes through and you get a few more days of teens and wind. I'm glad we are getting it out of the way right now!