Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part V

[baroclinic_instability]

They do. This is the first time I've seen someone mention that it sucks. I guess some don't like what it may imply.

Like all Rapid Update systems, they need to be used with caution since they initialize their fields with an operational numerical model then run successive forecasts each hour by "nudging" the previous forecast to the latest obs. There are various ways to do this, and the RUC is just one of those ways. Because they don't issue soundings for each run, and because each hourly run may ingest differing data sources (depending if that data source is available at that time), it can result in a pretty bad forecast sometimes.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Like all Rapid Update systems, they need to be used with caution since they initialize their fields with an operational numerical model then run successive forecasts each hour by "nudging" the previous forecast to the latest obs. There are various ways to do this, and the RUC is just one of those ways. Because they don't issue soundings for each run, and because each hourly run may ingest differing data sources (depending if that data source is available at that time), it can result in a pretty bad forecast sometimes.

Makes a lot of sense.

So the 00z RUC and 12z RUC are the ones that take the most data?

[OceanStWx]

That's what I've been saying all along. MKE gonna eat crow on this Bliz warning.

Don't forget that blizzard warnings have nothing to do with snowfall totals, just wind speeds and visibility reduced by snow or blowing snow for 3 hours.

[cromartie]

Don't forget that blizzard warnings have nothing to do with snowfall totals, just wind speeds and visibility reduced by snow or blowing snow for 3 hours.

Gonna be hard to blow around mashed potatoes.

Winter Weather Advisory followed by a Blowing Snow Advisory would suffice.

[JayPSU]

Don't forget that blizzard warnings have nothing to do with snowfall totals, just wind speeds and visibility reduced by snow or blowing snow for 3 hours.

Doesn't there have to be 6" of snow as well?

[csnavywx]

Doesn't there have to be 6" of snow as well?

No

[BeastFromTheEast]

Gonna be hard to blow around mashed potatoes.

Winter Weather Advisory followed by a Blowing Snow Advisory would suffice.

They don't have those anymore...

[Justin]

Don't forget that blizzard warnings have nothing to do with snowfall totals, just wind speeds and visibility reduced by snow or blowing snow for 3 hours.

Yes just takes a little snow with a LOT of wind to cause blizzard conditions...with that being said...I dont see the Quad Cities gets to 3-4" more like 1-2" I'd bet but who knows its been a weird and fascinating storm. La Crosse should be doing quite well. Can't wait to see some of the storm totals up North.

[cromartie]

They don't have those anymore...

They should bring them back then. Blizzard warning is just hype for 2 inches of blowing snow in an urban area.

[Ajdos]

Maybe that GEM was right after all for Detroit switching to snow quickly after the precip starts.

http://www.accuweath...r.asp?play=true

http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

[OceanStWx]

Gonna be hard to blow around mashed potatoes.

Winter Weather Advisory followed by a Blowing Snow Advisory would suffice.

1-2" on top of frozen mashed potatoes should suffice to drop the vis. I am not that excited about the snow totals, more so for the wind potential (which looks pretty incredible).

[wisconsinwx]

Still raining here in Milwaukee (obviously). I too am a bit worried about the snowfall totals verifying. They're predicting 6-10" in the southeast part of the Milwaukee/Sullivan forecast area, between about 10 or midnight and tomorrow afternoon, but I'm seeing that dry slot and the rain/snow line might be stalling. I will be mad if they blunder the forecast, as they have changed the amounts several times.

[Hoosier]

They should bring them back then. Blizzard warning is just hype for 2 inches of blowing snow in an urban area.

Visibility is gonna be plenty bad with 50 mph gusts and a period of good snowfall rates.

[cromartie]

Still raining here in Milwaukee (obviously). I too am a bit worried about the snowfall totals verifying. They're predicting 6-10" in the southeast part of the Milwaukee/Sullivan forecast area, between about 10 or midnight and tomorrow afternoon, but I'm seeing that dry slot and the rain/snow line might be stalling. I will be mad if they blunder the forecast, as they have changed the amounts several times.

Heavy rain and 37 here in Saukville. Looking at 2-5 max here.

[OceanStWx]

They should bring them back then. Blizzard warning is just hype for 2 inches of blowing snow in an urban area.

They were combined into a winter weather advisory to limit confusion with multiple headlines. So you could see a winter weather advisory solely for blowing snow, and that would be made clear within the text portion of the statement.

[baroclinic_instability]

Makes a lot of sense.

So the 00z RUC and 12z RUC are the ones that take the most data?

Not exactly sure about the details with the RUC. The model itself is quite old and honestly not that great. That is why it is being replaced by the Rapid Refresh, a WRF variant. Here is some of the data ingested by the RUC. Because it runs on such a high frequency, it can't take in nearly as much data as operational numerical models, and it can't perform nearly as thorough of a statistical analysis of the data. This is another reason why it can be useful (high frequency) but with caution.

• Commercial aircraft, including regional aircraft data with moisture (TAMDAR)
• Radar reflectivity (3-d)
• Profiler related
  • Wind profilers (404 and boundary-layer 915 MHz)
  • VAD (velocity-azimuth display) winds from NWS WSR-88D radars
  • RASS (Radio Acoustic Sounding System)

  [*]Rawinsondes and special dropwinsondes[*]Surface

  • Surface reporting stations and buoys (including cloud, visibility, current weather)
  • Mesonet

  [*]Satellite

  • GPS total precipitable water estimates
  • GOES cloud-top data (pressure and temperature)
  • GOES total precipitable water estimates
  • SSM/I total precipitable water estimates
  • GOES high-density visible and IR cloud drift winds

  [*]Experimental

  • Lightning - experimental
  • NASA Langley cloud products including water/ice path

[Thundersnow12]

still all rain here.

[Moneyman]

Snowing very lightly here. Probably a dusting so far. 33.1 degrees meh.

Oshkosh (20 miles north) is 31 and has 2-3 inches on the ground already in 1 1/2 hours.

[Indystorm]

Don't forget that blizzard warnings have nothing to do with snowfall totals, just wind speeds and visibility reduced by snow or blowing snow for 3 hours.

I'll show my age. Didn't blizzard warnings use to have some sort of temperature requirement?

[buckeye]

I'll show my age. Didn't blizzard warnings use to have some sort of temperature requirement?

i'm gonna one up ya

remember the good ole "Traveler's Advisory"

to me, that made too much sense.

[csnavywx]

Back up to 35 and all rain.

Part of the reason I dislike really wound up systems coming through here is that we almost always manage to mix or changeover to rain.... and then dry slot. The end result is typically an inch or so of pixie powder on anemic snowfall rates from whatever is left over of the deformation zone.

I'll gladly trade all of these wound up bowling balls for decent clippers any day.

So far, since the beginning of last season, most of the snowfall here seemed to come from clipper-type systems. Most every southern storm gave some sort of slushy crap, a bit of ice, or plain cold rain.

[JoMo]

Back up to 35 and all rain.

Part of the reason I dislike really wound up systems coming through here is that we almost always manage to mix or changeover to rain.... and then dry slot. The end result is typically an inch or so of pixie powder on anemic snowfall rates from whatever is left over of the deformation zone.

I'll gladly trade all of these wound up bowling balls for decent clippers any day.

So far, since the beginning of last season, most of the snowfall here seemed to come from clipper-type systems. Most every southern storm gave some sort of slushy crap, a bit of ice, or plain cold rain.

You just needed a farther south track.

[buckeye]

Back up to 35 and all rain.

Part of the reason I dislike really wound up systems coming through here is that we almost always manage to mix or changeover to rain.... and then dry slot. The end result is typically an inch or so of pixie powder on anemic snowfall rates from whatever is left over of the deformation zone.

I'll gladly trade all of these wound up bowling balls for decent clippers any day.

So far, since the beginning of last season, most of the snowfall here seemed to come from clipper-type systems. Most every southern storm gave some sort of slushy crap, a bit of ice, or plain cold rain.

what was your forecast calling for, for your area?

[OceanStWx]

From a met standpoint, I liked having the various winter weather warnings and advisories such as the blowing snow advisory, but from a public perspective it is much better. Not to mention I am not sure how seriously things such as blowing snow advisories were considered by the public.

At least we've tried to compensate for that by issuing a "winter weather advisory for..." which can be followed by blowing snow, snow, etc.

[Baum]

Back up to 35 and all rain.

Part of the reason I dislike really wound up systems coming through here is that we almost always manage to mix or changeover to rain.... and then dry slot. The end result is typically an inch or so of pixie powder on anemic snowfall rates from whatever is left over of the deformation zone.

I'll gladly trade all of these wound up bowling balls for decent clippers any day.

So far, since the beginning of last season, most of the snowfall here seemed to come from clipper-type systems. Most every southern storm gave some sort of slushy crap, a bit of ice, or plain cold rain.

your above this ...

[Thundersnow12]

alot of western IA obs showing +SN with gusts to near 45kts

[baroclinic_instability]

At least we've tried to compensate for that by issuing a "winter weather advisory for..." which can be followed by blowing snow, snow, etc.

Right, that is what I am saying. I think Winter Weather Advisory is much better for public purposes since it generally means potential travel problems. I think a WWA carries more weight.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Back up to 35 and all rain.

Part of the reason I dislike really wound up systems coming through here is that we almost always manage to mix or changeover to rain.... and then dry slot. The end result is typically an inch or so of pixie powder on anemic snowfall rates from whatever is left over of the deformation zone.

I'll gladly trade all of these wound up bowling balls for decent clippers any day.

So far, since the beginning of last season, most of the snowfall here seemed to come from clipper-type systems. Most every southern storm gave some sort of slushy crap, a bit of ice, or plain cold rain.

It is refreshing to see mets so passionate about this.

[Baum]

alot of western IA obs showing +SN with gusts to near 45kts

Bingo! Wait until tomorrow......

[csnavywx]

what was your forecast calling for, for your area?

4-6"

Which has to be with the deformation zone, since we've got maybe 1/4 to 1/2" of slush this evening. So unless that part of the system overperforms (they don't, a majority of the time with these systems), we're not going to meet that.

I was thinking we might end up with 2". There's a nice trowal tomorrow morning, but with so much mid-level dry air being wrapped and thrown around, it may be tough to get a good band going again. Dry slots are really efficient and cleaning out the ice-crystal bearing decks.