Nelson Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Hey WisTodd - see you are online. How are things down your way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/fp0_013.shtml ruc now tracks slp over.....drum roll..... .....dayton ...ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 the RUC/HRRR are awful, no sense talking about them now. Back to reality....heavy rain, no mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Snow finally mixing in - let's hope it's here to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Oh my, this is just a hot mess. I just saw my forecast,and it calls for 5-9". Yet somehow I'm still under a winter weather advisory. Worse yet, the forecast on the NW side of Toledo (per NWS Cleveland) is 8-14" under a winter weather advisory. BTW, Ann Arbor is reporting snow right now... http://forecast.weat...n&FcstType=text I don't know where you are, but I know under some circumstances NWS, if the forecast is not a sure bet, will issue warning total snow without throwing a warning out until it is a sure deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 the RUC/HRRR are awful, no sense talking about them now. Back to reality....heavy rain, no mixing. I rely 100% on all RUC/HRRR forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I rely 100% on all RUC/HRRR forecasts. for us weenie laymen is that sarcasm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Yeah, I think the dryslot makes it up to Madison/Milwaukee Anything to get a less snowy solution, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 for us weenie laymen is that sarcasm? Yeah it was a joke HRRR/RUC is not the best guidance in the world. Has some uses though. SPC meso graphics are from RUC for instance. Interested to see if the new NCEP WRF-RUC variant will be better when it comes online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WisTodd Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Hey Andy, Just NW of Random Lake, we started changing over @4:30. Now it's all mod snow (about 3/4 mile vis.) We've also dropped to 32.1, which is 2.5 degrees since 4pm. Looks like we have between 1/2 and 3/4" accumulation on the deck. Not hearing/feeling much wind yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Can't say I have ever seen such a weird kidney shaped surface low like this before. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/lrgnamsfcwbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Yeah it was a joke HRRR/RUC is not the best guidance in the world. Has some uses though. SPC meso graphics are from RUC for instance. Interested to see if the new NCEP WRF-RUC variant will be better when it comes online. ok, wasn't sure cause i often hear other pro mets refernce them as guidance in short term situations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 the RUC/HRRR are awful, no sense talking about them now. Back to reality....heavy rain, no mixing. Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Can't say I have ever seen such a weird kidney shaped surface low like this before. http://www.hpc.ncep....rgnamsfcwbg.gif 'secondary' forming over NW IL as the one over central IA occludes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Hey Andy, Just NW of Random Lake, we started changing over @4:30. Now it's all mod snow (about 3/4 mile vis.) We've also dropped to 32.1, which is 2.5 degrees since 4pm. Looks like we have between 1/2 and 3/4" accumulation on the deck. Not hearing/feeling much wind yet. Sweet - yeah, we just started mixing about 15 min ago. Temp at 34.8F and starting to drop pretty quickly now. Here's to a nice dumping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 ok, wasn't sure cause i often hear other pro mets refernce them as guidance in short term situations Yeah it is good to pick out short-term dynamic forcings, for instance. I like the SPC meso graphics for upper air jet circulations, frontogenesis, and other various dynamic forcings. Good to catch on to where there is potential for heavy snow, etc. and to line up radar trends with potential forcing mechanisms. Where it stinks is its actual QPF. It also has a weird high CAPE bias in the summer....sometimes comically ridiculous values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 the RUC/HRRR are awful, no sense talking about them now. Back to reality....heavy rain, no mixing. Seriously, is there some taboo here about mentioning something good for south of I-80? Jesus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Seriously, is there some taboo here about mentioning something good for south of I-80? Jesus... don't take it personally J, i think it has to do with the more south, the more egg on face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Hey Andy, Just NW of Random Lake, we started changing over @4:30. Now it's all mod snow (about 3/4 mile vis.) We've also dropped to 32.1, which is 2.5 degrees since 4pm. Looks like we have between 1/2 and 3/4" accumulation on the deck. Not hearing/feeling much wind yet. Also, looks like you may be in the sweet spot for accumulations - will be interested to see how you make out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Models don't have a changeover in Chicago itself until about 8 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Models don't have a changeover in Chicago itself until about 8 PM. that sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 0.20" of chilly miserable rain here so far. Temps on the rise, sitting at 38.5º on my thermometer right now. For those getting the snow, enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 ok, wasn't sure cause i often hear other pro mets refernce them as guidance in short term situations They do. This is the first time I've seen someone mention that it sucks. I guess some don't like what it may imply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Seems like the potential is increasing for a 6-9" snowfall here in northwest Ohio (Findlay) starting tomorrow and lasting deep into the night tomorrow. I am crossing my fingers lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Dry slot pushing through Dubuque, IA. Pivot point is WNW of there, but its progress shows only a little sign of slowing down to the east. I think this thing might make a run at MSN and MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 0.20" of chilly miserable rain here so far. Temps on the rise, sitting at 38.5º on my thermometer right now. For those getting the snow, enjoy! Got 40 and a soupy mess of slush and and crap.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Seems like the potential is increasing for a 6-9" snowfall here in northwest Ohio (Findlay) starting tomorrow and lasting deep into the night tomorrow. I am crossing my fingers lol. Did you guys make out with any of the lake effect last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 HEAVY snow in Madison. Every surface is plastered already. Down to freezing on the met building's roof. Already a disaster for driving since everything is soaked just under the new snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Did you guys make out with any of the lake effect last week? We got a little bit. Not too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cromartie Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Dry slot pushing through Dubuque, IA. Pivot point is WNW of there, but its progress shows only a little sign of slowing down to the east. I think this thing might make a run at MSN and MKE. That's what I've been saying all along. MKE gonna eat crow on this Bliz warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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