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Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part V

Chicago Storm

By Chicago Storm,
in Central/Western States

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ValpoVike

ValpoVike

Posted
Posted

There's no doubt there is a lot of blowing and drifting going on in this area, but I'm not sure I'm buying drifts as high as 5-6 feet in the country as reported in this article from the local TV station.

http://www.wlfi.com/...ads-and-schools

Probably areas where the plows pushed big piles to the side. Even here in Valpo, we don't have drifts that large - perhaps 3 foot drifts in spots.

This sure is turning out to one helluva LE event for Porter and LaPorte...

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Yeah, parts of Southwest Michigan BARELY qualify as having a snowcover too...we got such a royal smack in the face this weekend...rain, and then too warm to really accumulate Saturday night, then a dry slot, then just as the deformation band was about to move over us the second low stole all the moisture and we got "dry slotted" from the north. SUCH a frustrating storm. We truly are in the snow bubble so far this winter. I thought we were supposed to be in the prime spot! bahaha! In my specific area we still have several inches on the ground from the "big" lake effect snow event last weekend, but many parts of the Grand Rapids area barely have an inch.

I'm guessing Muskegon does best in a WNW/NW flow? With all the blocking in the Atlantic the last two winters the dominant flow has been more northerly. That would be my bet as to why it's been less than stellar there.

It is nice to know that I'm not suffering alone though. Misery enjoys company. :P Unfortunately, I don't see and end to the suckitude in sight.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

I saw some 2-3ft drifts down by the lake, i can see 5-6 being possible in drainage ditches out in farm land.

Probably areas where the plows pushed big piles to the side. Even here in Valpo, we don't have drifts that large - perhaps 3 foot drifts in spots.

This sure is turning out to one helluva LE event for Porter and LaPorte...

I suppose you guys are probably right. I mean even here in town I have some 2' drifts in my neighborhood. Proof in the pudding that it doesn't take a ton of snow, but in conjunction with high winds, to make travel difficult.

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WestMichigan

WestMichigan

Posted
Posted

Yeah, parts of Southwest Michigan BARELY qualify as having a snowcover too...we got such a royal smack in the face this weekend...rain, and then too warm to really accumulate Saturday night, then a dry slot, then just as the deformation band was about to move over us the second low stole all the moisture and we got "dry slotted" from the north. SUCH a frustrating storm. We truly are in the snow bubble so far this winter. I thought we were supposed to be in the prime spot! bahaha! In my specific area we still have several inches on the ground from the "big" lake effect snow event last weekend, but many parts of the Grand Rapids area barely have an inch.

Still lots of grass and bare spots in Hudsonville (east of Holland).

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blue60007

blue60007

Posted
Posted

There's no doubt there is a lot of blowing and drifting going on in this area, but I'm not sure I'm buying drifts as high as 5-6 feet in the country as reported in this article from the local TV station.

http://www.wlfi.com/...ads-and-schools

I believe it, winds were absolutely ripping in the open rural areas on the east side of town last night. There were essentially whiteout conditions at times out there.

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

Yeah, parts of Southwest Michigan BARELY qualify as having a snowcover too...we got such a royal smack in the face this weekend...rain, and then too warm to really accumulate Saturday night, then a dry slot, then just as the deformation band was about to move over us the second low stole all the moisture and we got "dry slotted" from the north. SUCH a frustrating storm. We truly are in the snow bubble so far this winter. I thought we were supposed to be in the prime spot! bahaha! In my specific area we still have several inches on the ground from the "big" lake effect snow event last weekend, but many parts of the Grand Rapids area barely have an inch.

Got a inch of slush and then 2 from the deform. Wind has drifted it nicely but ala it wont take much for bare ground to show up as it is pretty thin out in the open.

I'm guessing Muskegon does best in a WNW/NW flow? With all the blocking in the Atlantic the last two winters the dominant flow has been more northerly. That would be my bet as to why it's been less than stellar there.

It is nice to know that I'm not suffering alone though. Misery enjoys company. :P Unfortunately, I don't see and end to the suckitude in sight.

He does better with west/wsw. The wnw is ok but not preferred there. Here west/wnw works best. But yeah many out this way are hurting especially those who rely on a more westerly flow off the lake. Not as bad here as some other places but still running a bit below normal with snowfall.

Still lots of grass and bare spots in Hudsonville (east of Holland).

This i do find surprising considering last week. The rain washed all of that away? That sucks.

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted

I'm guessing Muskegon does best in a WNW/NW flow? With all the blocking in the Atlantic the last two winters the dominant flow has been more northerly. That would be my bet as to why it's been less than stellar there.

It is nice to know that I'm not suffering alone though. Misery enjoys company. :P Unfortunately, I don't see and end to the suckitude in sight.

Yup...in addition to SW/WSW flows....in order to get those though, a storm usually has to go way north (and make it warm) and then the return flow on the back side brings in the cold air on SW winds and this area can get walloped. Apparently the northerly wind has been more common here over the past couple decades...I think that coincides well with the NAO, doesn't it?

There's definitely a grumpy mood on the local weather board about the blah pattern for us. Is your snow surviving?

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted

Still lots of grass and bare spots in Hudsonville (east of Holland).

Aw, I'm glad I atleast have a solid snowpack from previous lake effect...otherwise I'd be in your place. I believe that "snowcover map" shows snowcover that is over 1 inch deep...there should probably be a green pimple in all that white over the G.R. area...

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted

Got a inch of slush and then 2 from the deform. Wind has drifted it nicely but ala it wont take much for bare ground to show up as it is pretty thin out in the open.

He does better with west/wsw. The wnw is ok but not preferred there. Here west/wnw works best. But yeah many out this way are hurting especially those who rely on a more westerly flow off the lake. Not as bad here as some other places but still running a bit below normal with snowfall.

This i do find surprising considering last week. The rain washed all of that away? That sucks.

I believe Hudsonville got missed by the snow band...it was a very sharp cutoff line (as usual)...I believe Zeeland even missed much of it.

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

Final snowfall total was 1.3" here.

It's kind of ironic that you started the thread, yet received one of the lowest snow totals of the regular Midwest posters here. I think that a 5,000 post thread was successful, but for you personally, it might be better for someone else to start the next storm thread.:P

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WestMichigan

WestMichigan

Posted
Posted

Got a inch of slush and then 2 from the deform. Wind has drifted it nicely but ala it wont take much for bare ground to show up as it is pretty thin out in the open.

He does better with west/wsw. The wnw is ok but not preferred there. Here west/wnw works best. But yeah many out this way are hurting especially those who rely on a more westerly flow off the lake. Not as bad here as some other places but still running a bit below normal with snowfall.

This i do find surprising considering last week. The rain washed all of that away? That sucks.

The rain didn't wash much away. Most of it melted before the rain. Literally 10 miles away there was nearly two feet. We had about 2". Another mile east and the total was less than an inch.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

yeah all the hi-res models have taken turns hitting us with some backside snows, but no model has been consistent

we'll see what happens but the latest SREFs are promising.

man i hope you get some real snowfall soon.

Looks like Georgian Bay will do the trick here. 18z NAM is crazy with 6-8" but I think at least a couple are likely tonight and tomorrow.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

you think were going to get into some les? btw how did you fare with last nights snow?

Based on what I'm seeing from NAM/NAM Bufkit/12km WRF/NMM...yeah, it looks like it might hit us pretty good, although the timing has been delayed a bit (late tomorrow morning/tomorrow afternoon for the heaviest stuff). And unlike last week's LES event, you guys in the western burbs have a better shot at getting in on the action too.

I made out with 2.3cm/0.9" from last night's garbage.

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blue60007

blue60007

Posted
Posted

Glad to see you made it over here to Americanwx. :) You still running your own model?

Thanks :) Yeah, sort of. I'm in the process of reworking all the automation process for it, although probably won't be able to get it going until after finals are over this week. I just started running it again after a long break... although, the results from the runs on this past storm were a bit... odd... so I need to investigate that too.

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mississaugasnow

mississaugasnow

Posted
Posted

im in the lightest shade of blue there. But im driving back to kitchener for an exam tomorrow, so i like where that donut hole is lol

Here's the 18z WRF

wrf_precip36_F36.gif

Gets the >0.30" contour into the city of Toronto.

And here's crazy NAM bufkit giving us 7.4" of snow on 0.30" of liquid.

post-257-0-00385600-1292281056.jpg

Overall, the chance for the heavier amounts will probably once again be towards Scarborough/Markham, but I think we'll do alright. 5cm/2"+

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

I took a look at some of the possible failure modes for the blizzard in our CWA. While we reached criteria in the western and eastern areas, it was pretty much a non event along the Mississippi. Firstly, the lack of snow was a problem in our area. The dry slot came through before any appreciable accumulation, and then the def band weakened as it approached the river. In the morning it re-intensified over our eastern counties and blizzard conditions were once again reported (maybe lake enhanced moisture?). Secondly, when looking at our 12z/12 sounding it seems the top of the mixed layer only extended to just below 925 mb. And observed winds at this level were right around 50 kts (significantly less than forecast). Part of that may be because the models were about 4-5 mb too strong on the pressure gradient across Iowa (about 24 mb rather than 28).

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NittanyWx

NittanyWx

Posted
Posted

That 11.5" report in Andover seems very, very low. Especially with reports of 12.5 in Cambridge and North Branch.

Is that a confirmed storm total? If so, is that normally a spot that receives a lower amount? I can't see how that could be accurate. Coon Rapids had 19.0 per CoCoRaHs data..

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Driving conditions the day after the storm were unbelievably horrible. Its a mix of budget cuts, where they want to wait til the storms over to plow, and the unique rarity that this storm was. Approximately the first 4 inches was heavy wet snow which turned streets into slush-rutted nightmares, then literally caked flash-frozen to the streets and the final ~2" of snow came in the form of powder which drifted everywhere. Ive seen snowstorms drop twice as much snow with half as much trouble on the roads. Also heard people say theyve lived in MI their whole lives and cant remember roads this bad a full day after a storm passed.

Heres a vid I took in the park in the woods on Sunday in the wet snow

Then some pics I took yesterday morning. Winds were just brutal.

2492-800.jpg

2493-800.jpg

2494-800.jpg

2495-800.jpg

2497-800.jpg

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