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Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part V


Chicago Storm

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This may be one ofthose"surprises" that usually happens with strong systems

that is under the 500 and 700mb low but it even looks like some of that lowerpressure is even at ground level(which may explain the oddlooking isobars)

looks to be centered just west of SPI

I think another surprise area could be that northern/eastern Indiana, western Ohio, southeastern Michigan zone. The 00z NAM went to town and the RUC and latest trends appear to be following.

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Getting some decent snow here now. Looks like a new mid level low might be getting cranking over Central IL which is chocking off the mid level forced/defo band snows in Iowa. As this new band becomes dominant over Ern Ia/NW IL/NE MO should start to see rates increase in that area. Perhaps a few isolated 4-6" reports possible under the new band as it gets going/developing but generally would expect 2-4" perhaps a few places see an additional inch or so from the left overs over Central Iowa as that swings East. New mid level circulation should be interesting to watch as it translates East into Indiana.

Cedar Rapids is just in the wrong spot this December. We may be lucky to get 2 inches total.

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I dont see any precip forecast by the models unti lthe "old" deformation zone moves in towards 12z....

the stuff over central IL is being missed even by the latest RUC

20-28 DBZ returns now to my south in a band

got to be fluffy heavy snow with these temps

That band looks surprisingly intense. Looks like even the 6z NAM is not capturing it well. Oy.

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Well our snow here didn't last a real long time, quickly came to an end...flakes very small and accumulations not terribly impressive. Can't see Blizzard conditions materializing ...snow still has a bit of wetness to it and not really blowing that hard on winds. We'll see though. I think a lot of folks who wanted the snow across IL are going to be let down on this. Looked good earlier than it does now. Snow in Ia west of here quickly falling apart and pulling out. Most areas South of I-88 probably looking at an additional 1 to maybe, maybe 2" tops. Sort of a let down here compared to what I thought last night.

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RIP DVN Blizzard warnings

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

238 AM CST SUN DEC 12 2010

DISCUSSION

A QUICK UPDATE PRIOR TO NORMAL ISSUANCE TO DISCUSS THE HEADLINE.

LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE FAR WEST

AND NORTH...BUT OUTSIDE THESE AREAS WE ARE NOT SEEING ENOUGH SNOW

OR FALLING SNOW TO HAVE VISIBILITIES UNDER 1/2 MILE...WITH MOST

SITES ABOVE 1 MILE. THE DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY

WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST...A TREND SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE DATA AND

MODEL DATA. IN ADDITION...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST...WINDS NOW

APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL FOR BLIZZARD CRITERIA AS WELL. WE WILL END

THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNINGS AT 18Z...EARLIER THAN BEFORE. THIS

IS DONE SINCE FALLING SNOW SEEMS A LARGE PORTION OF ANY VISIBILITY

RESTRICTION UPSTREAM...EXCEPT WHERE DEEP SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED.

THESE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR BLIZZARD ARE LIKELY TO BE CANCELLED

WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS MORNING.

A FULL AFD WILL FOLLOW AFTER 3 AM.

..ERVIN..

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yep...its killing the snows west of me though(ie justin) looks like i will bw on the northwest edge of it

St. Louis to Bloomington looks golden on the new mid level circulation, but that's what I thought here earlier too... good luck. The mid level circulations appear to be reforming further and further East every few hours. I hope it works out for folks in that zone I just highlighted. Snow is really getting choked off here. I've still yet to see a Blizzard Warning for DVN to work out and meet actual thresholds. I don't think I've seen it once. But that's okay. One plus to this storm is perhaps it will really enhance negative feedback and baroclinicity for the next system but may not be another big system to watch until right before Xmas and that looks like it could be a rain changing to snow event around here too... not good. There's a few weaker systems in there until then which may lay down some snow here and there. Certainly an upper midwest snow season so far but its way, way early and I don't necessarily buy into the Winter's over after December calls that some people are putting their faith into, but you never know.

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Looking like the low end of my 1-3" call yesterday won't even be met. Took all of my snow pack and gave nodda back.. That's what I could see coming yesterday and sadly the worst case scenario is going to play out.. At least I knew what was coming but it doesn't make up for bare ground that pisses me off to end in the temporary..

Good luck to the rest of you all to the east!

Go Pats!

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DTX dropped the totals slightly but highlighted the threat of tree damage/power outages due to the wet snow/wind combination.

Honestly to me things are looking fairly decent I already have a very slushy coating on the back patio. Hopefully we don't get dry slotted too badly or change back over to rain.

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Only a dusting here so far, with a few flurries currently. North winds are just starting to pick up, and the temp shot back up to 28.

The deform over eastern Iowa looks pretty meager, with just a few decent narrow bands mixed in there. We might not even get an inch now.

How much longer will the QC go without a 12" storm? It's already been over a decade.

Edit: Jesus, I need to start proofreading before I post.

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