snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Raining and 38 here at metro 39 here, which is even warmer than the warm GFS progged at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 DTX THE THERMAL PROFILE FOR THE INITIAL BURST OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MORE PROBLEMATIC NOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. SLIGHT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 36-40F RANGE (OUTSIDE OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB). THIS LEAVES MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS UNUSABLE IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH MODEL TEMPERATURES 2-5 DEGREES TOO COOL BELOW 2K FT AT THE MOMENT. EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB PROCESSES WILL HELP BRING THESE READINGS TO A LEVEL THAT EVENTUALLY SUPPORTS A MIX AND CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS.HOWEVER... THE DELAY IN THIS TRANSITION WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TRIMMING A GOOD HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OFF EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO JUST MINOR REVISIONS TO THE OVERALL EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS WINTER STORM /MAINLY OVER THE ADVISORY AREA/. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT TO IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES /SOUTH OF M-59/ REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR THE 12-18Z PERIOD ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL ALLOW THE MIDSHIFT CREW TO REACCESS ONCE THE FULL 00Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Still snowing here... Not as heavy as it was. Very windy. I'll go out and take a few pics. House feels like its going to collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Winona (not sure if its official) is reporting 21.2 inches... That is just a short ride up the river from here... Really looks like that area hit the jackpot. (Arcadia/Buffalo Co/Winona) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 39 here, which is even warmer than the warm GFS progged at this time. 30 here, which is way warmer than was predicted. At this rate, we may get an hour or so of freezing rain before changing over to a deluge of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Still snowing here... Not as heavy as it was. Very windy. I'll go out and take a few pics. House feels like its going to collapse. Sweet look forward to seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 How's the big lower lakes blizzard going so far? Is I-80 close to being shut down? Also, get ready for the biggest cold blast of the season, perhaps the coldest of the winter since winter is done around new years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 got a question, if you look the MKX radar using level 2 or 3 (probably harder to see on a standard radar) what is that fine line moving ESE between madison and jefferson? Im guessing just the wind shift line. shows up on BV too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 30 here, which is way warmer than was predicted. At this rate, we may get an hour or so of freezing rain before changing over to a deluge of rain. I wouldn't worry about it. Your temps shouldn't rise much overnight. Plus, you have dewpoints around -5/-6C, which will allow the precip, once it starts, to wet bulb your temperatures down a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Megaforce Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Winona (not sure if its official) is reporting 21.2 inches... That is just a short ride up the river from here... Really looks like that area hit the jackpot. (Arcadia/Buffalo Co/Winona) And that is thier 2nd 20" storm in a few years, lucky peeps. I am right on the edge of that dryslot, but it is coming back down now. I have about 4" out there now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cromartie Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Well, look at it this way, your water bill will be cheaper since you don't have to make snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Getting a few light flurries here in Flora right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Hard to take pics with the snow falling hard still... This is looking west down my front st. It has been plowed once this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 If the bands of snow keep bypassing Cedar Rapids, i'm not going to get alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I gave up shoveling all of it as you can tell. There is about 6 inches or more in that big unshoveled area. Its going to suck finishing it up tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 How about this for a contrast: West Bend (30 miles northwest of Milwaukee): 7 inches Milwaukee: nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Winona (not sure if its official) is reporting 21.2 inches... That is just a short ride up the river from here... Really looks like that area hit the jackpot. (Arcadia/Buffalo Co/Winona) Hopefully santa brings you and the boy a pair of snowmobiles. The boy would love a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Congrats DLL, nice pics and nice storm for you. Just measured about 6.0 inches so far. Looks like another 4-5 to come? Should finish around a foot I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I gave up shoveling all of it as you can tell. There is about 6 inches or more in that big unshoveled area. Its going to suck finishing it up tomorrow! I'm pinning that above my bed tonight.. What a workout you got today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I'm buying a snowblower... I'm not doing this anymore... I have access to an ATV with a plow, but i have to go pick it up and tow it over and take it back...so its really time consuming...then again, so is back surgery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Bow- I'll have a video if it ever gets done uploading... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 It was fun tracking the cold front through the area this evening, my temp wouldnt budge from 41 but 10 minutes after the front passed the temp dropped to 34. And now Im having a few nice burst of snow and wind. The deck is dusted and its already sticking to everything. Hopefully alot more to come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Raining and 38 here at metro DTX doesnt even mention the fact that ALL the 00z runs now show this secondary low forming over lake Erie and giving much heavier qpf over eastern MI from mid-morning thru evening than earlier forecast. They just stick with their generic "snow will be heavier in MBS and FNT with deform" and that it will changeover later than expected. GRR, however, mentions it... THE NEW MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A NEW SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PROBLEM WITH THAT IS AS THE OLD LOW FILL AND THE NEW LOW FORMS... THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OLD LOW WOULD WEAKEN THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE OLD LOW IN FAVOR THE NEW LOW FORMING TO THE EAST. THAT WOULD SUGGEST WE MAY SEE THE VSBY IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. ONCE THE NEW SNOW SHIELD DEVELOPS AT LEAST THE EASTERN TAF SITES WOULD GO IFR IN SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Latest Milwaukee ob is showing snow mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettman320 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 DTX doesnt even mention the fact that ALL the 00z runs now show this secondary low forming over lake Erie and giving much heavier qpf over eastern MI from mid-morning thru evening than earlier forecast. They just stick with their generic "snow will be heavier in MBS and FNT with deform" and that it will changeover later than expected. GRR, however, mentions it... THE NEW MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A NEW SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PROBLEM WITH THAT IS AS THE OLD LOW FILL AND THE NEW LOW FORMS... THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OLD LOW WOULD WEAKEN THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE OLD LOW IN FAVOR THE NEW LOW FORMING TO THE EAST. THAT WOULD SUGGEST WE MAY SEE THE VSBY IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. ONCE THE NEW SNOW SHIELD DEVELOPS AT LEAST THE EASTERN TAF SITES WOULD GO IFR IN SNOW. Yeah DTX has been somewhat nonchalant with this event for some reason which is not usually like them. Everything looks good though and later tomorrow looks to be pretty wicked with the combined wind/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Lake Michigan is gonna be as mean as ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Getting some decent snow here now. Looks like a new mid level low might be getting cranking over Central IL which is chocking off the mid level forced/defo band snows in Iowa. As this new band becomes dominant over Ern Ia/NW IL/NE MO should start to see rates increase in that area. Perhaps a few isolated 4-6" reports possible under the new band as it gets going/developing but generally would expect 2-4" perhaps a few places see an additional inch or so from the left overs over Central Iowa as that swings East. New mid level circulation should be interesting to watch as it translates East into Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Getting some decent snow here now. Looks like a new mid level low might be getting cranking over Central IL which is chocking off the mid level forced/defo band snows in Iowa. As this new band becomes dominant over Ern Ia/NW IL/NE MO should start to see rates increase in that area. Perhaps a few isolated 4-6" reports possible under the new band as it gets going/developing but generally would expect 2-4" perhaps a few places see an additional inch or so from the left overs over Central Iowa as that swings East. New mid level circulation should be interesting to watch as it translates East into Indiana. Yeah maybe something forming, kinda wondering how that could effect snowfall down here, cuz looking at the radar it looks like we are in for a good 1, maybe 2" with ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Getting some decent snow here now. Looks like a new mid level low might be getting cranking over Central IL which is chocking off the mid level forced/defo band snows in Iowa. As this new band becomes dominant over Ern Ia/NW IL/NE MO should start to see rates increase in that area. Perhaps a few isolated 4-6" reports possible under the new band as it gets going/developing but generally would expect 2-4" perhaps a few places see an additional inch or so from the left overs over Central Iowa as that swings East. New mid level circulation should be interesting to watch as it translates East into Indiana. This may be one ofthose"surprises" that usually happens with strong systems that is under the 500 and 700mb low but it even looks like some of that lowerpressure is even at ground level(which may explain the oddlooking isobars) looks to be centered just west of SPI with a heavier band developing just to my south over lincoln Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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