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Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part V


Chicago Storm

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DTX

THE THERMAL PROFILE FOR THE INITIAL BURST OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION

LOOKS TO BE MORE PROBLEMATIC NOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND

EAST. SLIGHT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS EFFECTIVELY PUSHED

TEMPERATURES INTO THE 36-40F RANGE (OUTSIDE OF THE SAGINAW

VALLEY/THUMB). THIS LEAVES MODEL LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS UNUSABLE

IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH MODEL TEMPERATURES 2-5 DEGREES TOO COOL

BELOW 2K FT AT THE MOMENT. EVAPORATIVE COOLING/WET BULB PROCESSES

WILL HELP BRING THESE READINGS TO A LEVEL THAT EVENTUALLY SUPPORTS A

MIX AND CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS.HOWEVER...

THE DELAY IN THIS TRANSITION WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TRIMMING A

GOOD HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OFF EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO JUST

MINOR REVISIONS TO THE OVERALL EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS

WINTER STORM /MAINLY OVER THE ADVISORY AREA/. THE POTENTIAL FOR

THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT TO IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES

/SOUTH OF M-59/ REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR THE 12-18Z PERIOD ON

SUNDAY...BUT WILL ALLOW THE MIDSHIFT CREW TO REACCESS ONCE THE

FULL 00Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES.

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30 here, which is way warmer than was predicted. At this rate, we may get an hour or so of freezing rain before changing over to a deluge of rain.

I wouldn't worry about it. Your temps shouldn't rise much overnight. Plus, you have dewpoints around -5/-6C, which will allow the precip, once it starts, to wet bulb your temperatures down a bit too.

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Winona (not sure if its official) is reporting 21.2 inches... That is just a short ride up the river from here... Really looks like that area hit the jackpot. (Arcadia/Buffalo Co/Winona)

And that is thier 2nd 20" storm in a few years, lucky peeps. I am right on the edge of that dryslot, but it is coming back down now. I have about 4" out there now

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Raining and 38 here at metro :axe:

DTX doesnt even mention the fact that ALL the 00z runs now show this secondary low forming over lake Erie and giving much heavier qpf over eastern MI from mid-morning thru evening than earlier forecast. They just stick with their generic "snow will be heavier in MBS and FNT with deform" and that it will changeover later than expected. GRR, however, mentions it...

THE NEW MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A NEW SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PROBLEM WITH THAT IS AS THE OLD LOW FILL AND THE NEW LOW FORMS... THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OLD LOW WOULD WEAKEN THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE OLD LOW IN FAVOR THE NEW LOW FORMING TO THE EAST. THAT WOULD SUGGEST WE MAY SEE THE VSBY IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. ONCE THE NEW SNOW SHIELD DEVELOPS AT LEAST THE EASTERN TAF SITES WOULD GO IFR IN SNOW.

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DTX doesnt even mention the fact that ALL the 00z runs now show this secondary low forming over lake Erie and giving much heavier qpf over eastern MI from mid-morning thru evening than earlier forecast. They just stick with their generic "snow will be heavier in MBS and FNT with deform" and that it will changeover later than expected. GRR, however, mentions it...

THE NEW MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A NEW SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PROBLEM WITH THAT IS AS THE OLD LOW FILL AND THE NEW LOW FORMS... THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE OLD LOW WOULD WEAKEN THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE OLD LOW IN FAVOR THE NEW LOW FORMING TO THE EAST. THAT WOULD SUGGEST WE MAY SEE THE VSBY IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. ONCE THE NEW SNOW SHIELD DEVELOPS AT LEAST THE EASTERN TAF SITES WOULD GO IFR IN SNOW.

Yeah DTX has been somewhat nonchalant with this event for some reason which is not usually like them. Everything looks good though and later tomorrow looks to be pretty wicked with the combined wind/snow.

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Getting some decent snow here now. Looks like a new mid level low might be getting cranking over Central IL which is chocking off the mid level forced/defo band snows in Iowa. As this new band becomes dominant over Ern Ia/NW IL/NE MO should start to see rates increase in that area. Perhaps a few isolated 4-6" reports possible under the new band as it gets going/developing but generally would expect 2-4" perhaps a few places see an additional inch or so from the left overs over Central Iowa as that swings East. New mid level circulation should be interesting to watch as it translates East into Indiana.

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Getting some decent snow here now. Looks like a new mid level low might be getting cranking over Central IL which is chocking off the mid level forced/defo band snows in Iowa. As this new band becomes dominant over Ern Ia/NW IL/NE MO should start to see rates increase in that area. Perhaps a few isolated 4-6" reports possible under the new band as it gets going/developing but generally would expect 2-4" perhaps a few places see an additional inch or so from the left overs over Central Iowa as that swings East. New mid level circulation should be interesting to watch as it translates East into Indiana.

Yeah maybe something forming, kinda wondering how that could effect snowfall down here, cuz looking at the radar it looks like we are in for a good 1, maybe 2" with ratios...

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Getting some decent snow here now. Looks like a new mid level low might be getting cranking over Central IL which is chocking off the mid level forced/defo band snows in Iowa. As this new band becomes dominant over Ern Ia/NW IL/NE MO should start to see rates increase in that area. Perhaps a few isolated 4-6" reports possible under the new band as it gets going/developing but generally would expect 2-4" perhaps a few places see an additional inch or so from the left overs over Central Iowa as that swings East. New mid level circulation should be interesting to watch as it translates East into Indiana.

This may be one ofthose"surprises" that usually happens with strong systems

that is under the 500 and 700mb low but it even looks like some of that lowerpressure is even at ground level(which may explain the oddlooking isobars)

looks to be centered just west of SPI

with a heavier band developing just to my south over lincoln

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