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Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part V


Chicago Storm

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Yes I remember. It is interesting, however, that they downgraded 3 hours before the warning would go into effect. Makes me think they believe snow won't start until well after midnight, b/c they weren't expecting it to change early in the evening anyways.

MKE will be the last place to lose the warm wedge because of the lake + warm ingestion of the occluded low. Bad place to be with the position of said low. South of us might actually do better.

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0z NAM BUFKIT is all snow but sfc temps for a few hours get close to 1.5C. I remember NAM was really hitting the CAD hard about a year ago with the Dec 9, 2009 storm. It was right in comparison to the other models, but it overdid the duration.

01z RUC BUFKIT is probably closer to the truth. About 0.20-0.25" of snow then we switch to rain.

Thanks SSC. By the sounds of it, the new 00z RGEM is colder, but not to the level of the 00z NAM. We'll see what happens.

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it doesn't necessarily mean that's where the low is headed....but definitely a southern trend to all this

not over till the fat lady sings but it looks like Harry gets a big highfive

This thing was never going North. There were people all day on here saying the low was going to end up farther north, farther north, farther north. This thing has been consistently at least slightly farther south than the models were indicating since early this morning.

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This thing was never going North. There were people all day on here saying the low was going to end up farther north, farther north, farther north. This thing has been consistently at least slightly farther south than the models were indicating since early this morning.

i know just enough to be dangerous....but for the life of me i could not understand how you could get a 500 closed contour low digging to KY and have your only slp riding thru the central lakes....it just didn't make sense. Baro did a great job explaining, I just had never seen that happen before.

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i know just enough to be dangerous....but for the life of me i could not understand how you could get a 500 closed contour low digging to KY and have your only slp riding thru the central lakes....it just didn't make sense. Baro did a great job explaining, I just had never seen that happen before.

GGEM for the win

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Yes and no. It was too far south initially. I'm a bit impressed with the GGEM performance in this event. It wasn't perfect by any means but it might have been one of the best/consistent.

I would agree....ggem was pretty solid. The ukie was way south, although if this ends up tracking thru cmh, you could call it a toss up between the ggem and ukie but clearly the euro loses.

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Thanks SSC. By the sounds of it, the new 00z RGEM is colder, but not to the level of the 00z NAM. We'll see what happens.

Yeah, it gets the RA/SN line closer to us than at 12z, but we're still on the wrong side of it. Also, it's trended the CCB band closer to Toronto, but in the end if JUST ends up missing us to the west. It's going to take a lot of things to go right, but maybe we get a few surprises tomorrow. I wouldn't bet the farm on it though.

Hopefully with the partial clearing we're experiencing now, we can get the temperature to start dropping a bit.

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I would agree....ggem was pretty solid. The ukie was way south, although if this ends up tracking thru cmh, you could call it a toss up between the ggem and ukie but clearly the euro loses.

Although the Euro did well with catching a farther north solution when some others were WAY south. It just went overboard.

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