wisconsinwx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I'm not quite sure why they downgraded since they didn't change the wind forecast. All they did was nudge snow amounts down a bit. Yeah, we still might meet the criteria IF we actually get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 0z RGEM seems to agree with the NAM for a good "secondary" hit for NW/N OH and SE MI. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/512_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 latest Models are pretty consistent with the low tracking/redeveloping in western/southwestern OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Aleking is about to get a burst of snow if it isn't snowing there already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cromartie Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Yes I remember. It is interesting, however, that they downgraded 3 hours before the warning would go into effect. Makes me think they believe snow won't start until well after midnight, b/c they weren't expecting it to change early in the evening anyways. MKE will be the last place to lose the warm wedge because of the lake + warm ingestion of the occluded low. Bad place to be with the position of said low. South of us might actually do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Models are pretty consistent with the low tracking/redeveloping in western/southwestern OH. ukie for the win????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 latest "Sweet home Alabama...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 latest Nice, lowest pressure falls are south of the NAM track. Me likes Actually agrees more with the RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Nice, lowest pressure falls are south of the NAM track. Me likes Actually agrees more with the RUC. That crappy model? Come on, Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 0z NAM BUFKIT is all snow but sfc temps for a few hours get close to 1.5C. I remember NAM was really hitting the CAD hard about a year ago with the Dec 9, 2009 storm. It was right in comparison to the other models, but it overdid the duration. 01z RUC BUFKIT is probably closer to the truth. About 0.20-0.25" of snow then we switch to rain. Thanks SSC. By the sounds of it, the new 00z RGEM is colder, but not to the level of the 00z NAM. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Winds just starting to pick up, front has to be close. Dropped 0.4º "suddenly". Good riddance warmth. EDIT: Crashing, now down to 37º. Heat Island effect here, 40.4F.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Nice, lowest pressure falls are south of the NAM track. Me likes Actually agrees more with the RUC. it doesn't necessarily mean that's where the low is headed....but definitely a southern trend to all this not over till the fat lady sings but it looks like Harry gets a big highfive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Heat Island effect here, 40.4F.. It's coming, 32º here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 it doesn't necessarily mean that's where the low is headed....but definitely a southern trend to all this not over till the fat lady sings but it looks like Harry gets a big highfive This thing was never going North. There were people all day on here saying the low was going to end up farther north, farther north, farther north. This thing has been consistently at least slightly farther south than the models were indicating since early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 ukie for the win????? Yes and no. It was too far south initially. I'm a bit impressed with the GGEM performance in this event. It wasn't perfect by any means but it might have been one of the best/consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 vikes-giants moved to monday night over the travel issue and, get this, concern over the amount of snow on the roof of the metrodome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 This thing was never going North. There were people all day on here saying the low was going to end up farther north, farther north, farther north. This thing has been consistently at least slightly farther south than the models were indicating since early this morning. i know just enough to be dangerous....but for the life of me i could not understand how you could get a 500 closed contour low digging to KY and have your only slp riding thru the central lakes....it just didn't make sense. Baro did a great job explaining, I just had never seen that happen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 i know just enough to be dangerous....but for the life of me i could not understand how you could get a 500 closed contour low digging to KY and have your only slp riding thru the central lakes....it just didn't make sense. Baro did a great job explaining, I just had never seen that happen before. GGEM for the win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Yes and no. It was too far south initially. I'm a bit impressed with the GGEM performance in this event. It wasn't perfect by any means but it might have been one of the best/consistent. I would agree....ggem was pretty solid. The ukie was way south, although if this ends up tracking thru cmh, you could call it a toss up between the ggem and ukie but clearly the euro loses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 It's coming, 32º here now. Gone from 40.4 down to 37.3 in the last 3 minutes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Thanks SSC. By the sounds of it, the new 00z RGEM is colder, but not to the level of the 00z NAM. We'll see what happens. Yeah, it gets the RA/SN line closer to us than at 12z, but we're still on the wrong side of it. Also, it's trended the CCB band closer to Toronto, but in the end if JUST ends up missing us to the west. It's going to take a lot of things to go right, but maybe we get a few surprises tomorrow. I wouldn't bet the farm on it though. Hopefully with the partial clearing we're experiencing now, we can get the temperature to start dropping a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I would agree....ggem was pretty solid. The ukie was way south, although if this ends up tracking thru cmh, you could call it a toss up between the ggem and ukie but clearly the euro loses. Although the Euro did well with catching a farther north solution when some others were WAY south. It just went overboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Although the Euro did well with catching a farther north solution when some others were WAY south. It just went overboard. Was it the Euro or one of the NAM runs that took it to GRB and then TVC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 in all my weenie years...i never recall checking models during an unfolding event. That says it all about this sytem....what a weird one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 it doesn't necessarily mean that's where the low is headed....but definitely a southern trend to all this not over till the fat lady sings but it looks like Harry gets a big highfive Well of course, but you gotta hang on to every hope possible right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cromartie Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Ripping snow here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Ripping snow here now. Parachutes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 had to find some humor out of probably only getting a few inches. northward moving snow echo supercell with hook! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Is it sticking in Saukville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 had a quick inch with a period of SN+, drunk.. WIll check in 2 morrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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