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Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part V


Chicago Storm

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Great link. It would be awesome if this low in the lower apps develops. This would drastically change everything from OH into southcentral Ontario (major snowstorm instead of a rain/snow mixture slop or mainly rain).

we have the same issue everyone here has...

...the race between the precip and the coldair. So far it seems the precip has been the upset winner in a lot of areas....so I'm cautious of that too here.

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Yuppers. Has that its never going to changeover feel until like morning. maybe I'll have whitecaps on the puddles.

Honestly, when we started as rain, I was thinking it was a 12/8-12/9 redux and I was going to be watching my temp for the next 6 hours waiting for the change to snow. Like I always say, the lake giveth and the lake taketh away.

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Yuppers. Has that its never going to changeover feel until like morning. maybe I'll have whitecaps on the puddles.

Just took a quick peek at your soundings (NAM/RUC) and it would still suggest a changeover somewhere around midnight. The NAM is maybe an hour slower than the RUC.

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a lot of them were pretty late 630 and up....so i didn't see them. You right

Beau had posted something about new advisory criteria down there when they were issued this afternoon, in this thread or maybe the one before...hard to keep track, but that's why I remembered it. Regardless, new NAM has a few new wrinkles for E IN and OH, so something to keep your guard up about.

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Beau had posted something about new advisory criteria down there when they were issued this afternoon, in this thread or maybe the one before...hard to keep track, but that's why I remembered it. Regardless, new NAM has a few new wrinkles for E IN and OH, so something to keep your guard up about.

yea i just didn't recall seeing that much color on the iwds map this afternoon...that far south....but that could be 'selective weenie memory'

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The new 00z NAM looks interesting for the Toronto area. The snowfall maps are not out yet, but it looks colder/snowier and no dry slot effects. The low tracks just southeast of Toronto. Fingers crossed.

I've been distracted this evening but I'll run BUFKIT on NAM in a sec. Even if shows predominantly snow, it'd be nice to get another model indicating that prolonged defo band setting up over us. Most of the other models I've seen have it well west of us.

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I've been distracted this evening but I'll run BUFKIT on NAM in a sec. Even if shows predominantly snow, it'd be nice to get another model indicating that prolonged defo band setting up over us. Most of the other models I've seen have it well west of us.

0z NAM BUFKIT is all snow but sfc temps for a few hours get close to 1.5C. I remember NAM was really hitting the CAD hard about a year ago with the Dec 9, 2009 storm. It was right in comparison to the other models, but it overdid the duration.

01z RUC BUFKIT is probably closer to the truth. About 0.20-0.25" of snow then we switch to rain.

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Saw this coming 3 hrs ago. Remember I said MKE would eat crow with the Blizzard warning? Might as well take it down to a WWA cuz MKE proper ain't seeing over 3 inches.

I'm not quite sure why they downgraded since they didn't change the wind forecast. All they did was nudge snow amounts down a bit.

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Saw this coming 3 hrs ago. Remember I said MKE would eat crow with the Blizzard warning? Might as well take it down to a WWA cuz MKE proper ain't seeing over 3 inches.

Yes I remember. It is interesting, however, that they downgraded 3 hours before the warning would go into effect. Makes me think they believe snow won't start until well after midnight, b/c they weren't expecting it to change early in the evening anyways.

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