Thundersnow12 Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 I will look more at it later since the Bears are on now lol from DVN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...INTERESTING SITUATION AS MAJOR TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PUMPS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDWEST ON A PERSISTENT STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE MOISTURE RETURN IS THERE COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I-80. THIS WOULD BE OCCURRING WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. CONTINUED FEED OF WARM MOIST AIR DUE TO A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SHOWALTERS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS. WILL MENTION CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 60S IF NOT 70+. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH SUCH STRONG WIND FIELDS PROGGED BY THE ECM A RATHER UNUSUAL LATE NOVEMBER SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED. ..HAASE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theweatherman12 Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Well here's the 18z GFS Run, it shows a decent warm sector, shows a nice storm system with 1001mb low, some runs had it down to 980mb, this storm has been showing up on every run the last several days, i am liking it, don't be shocked if SPC has it outlined in the Day 4-8 Outlook in the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Been monitoring this for a couple of days, the 500 mb heights definitely would suggest such a potential if adequate moisture/destabilization can manifest itself. Quite an impressive trough showing up there, although I would maybe like to see a bit more of a negative tilt to it. Stronger surface low would certainly encourage more backing of the winds and increase hodograph curvature, but a little too early to get that specific at this time. Although, I will mention that the GoM will have several days to build up moisture for potential advection north next weekend/early the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 13, 2011 Author Share Posted November 13, 2011 Been monitoring this for a couple of days, the 500 mb heights definitely would suggest such a potential if adequate moisture/destabilization can manifest itself. Quite an impressive trough showing up there, although I would maybe like to see a bit more of a negative tilt to it. Stronger surface low would certainly encourage more backing of the winds and increase hodograph curvature, but a little too early to get that specific at this time. Although, I will mention that the GoM will have several days to build up moisture for potential advection north next weekend/early the following week. how can you even mention this being 6 days away? I don't get that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 how can you even mention this being 6 days away? I don't get that one. I'm personally not sure how anything this anomalous can be mentioned publicly this far out...yes the signal is there but boy that signal can go away fast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 just wanted to mention that due to some models over the past several days showing significant differences in the strength of the surface low (which is to be expected...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 <OT> Who's the guy who registered today and already got himself banned? </OT> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 <OT> Who's the guy who registered today and already got himself banned? </OT> northpittweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 northpittweather Oh...okay. Who? PM me if you don't want this cluttering up the severe weather thread. In fact, I know it shouldn't be. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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