SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[superjames1992]

This is how I imagine what's going on right now with our pattern:

LOL.

Better to have that now than in mid-winter, though!

[CarolinaCrusher2000]

Dave Tolleris has a good analysis of MJO progression throughout December as well as, how the -NAO may develop by Christmas. The article was published today on WxRisk.com. A powerful 933 mb low forecasted to hit Norway and Scotland then into Russia over the next 2 weeks could leave a void into the North West Atlantic creating a potential blocking pattern over Greenland by the 25th or so. Maybe it will happen, but hey! it is still early in the season.

[Brick Tamland]

This is how I imagine what's going on right now with our pattern:

I hate the Heat Mizer!

[Brick Tamland]

Maybe we need a mild, snowless winter just to bring us back to reality. The last few winters have really spoiled us.

[nrgjeff]

The downstream ridge over eastern Siberia may give South China a white Christmas in their own version of blocking. Sometimes billiard ball meteorology works! In all seriousness I do like Dave's MJO disco.

Dave Tolleris has a good analysis of MJO progression throughout December as well as, how the -NAO may develop by Christmas. The article was published today on WxRisk.com. A powerful 933 mb low forecasted to hit Norway and Scotland then into Russia over the next 2 weeks could leave a void into the North West Atlantic creating a potential blocking pattern over Greenland by the 25th or so. Maybe it will happen, but hey! it is still early in the season.

[tnweathernut]

Link to a facebook discussion from DT

https://www.facebook.com/#!/photo.php?fbid=270617542985511&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater

What's a little funny is that he is grasping onto a model that he continually bashes to hang on to a point he made in recent days about the NAO heading into negative territory. A point he rang the bell on (sort of speak) when the EURO was indicating the same a few days ago.

Interesting point nonetheless. We all know winter will eventually hit in a more sustained fashion. At least most of the time it does. haha

[Lee]

Link to a facebook discussion from DT

https://www.facebook...&type=1

What's a little funny is that he is grasping onto a model that he continually bashes to hang on to a point he made in recent days about the NAO heading into negative territory. A point he rang the bell on (sort of speak) when the EURO was indicating the same a few days ago.

Interesting point nonetheless. We all know winter will eventually hit in a more sustained fashion. At least most of the time it does. haha

Yeah, unless we get a ,God forbid, '49-50 or '73-74 type la nina winter.

[SN_Lover]

Here is some positive news. Parts of the southeast has done well with respect to precipitation amounts.

(attachment up-loader is not working for me so here is the link http://water.weather.gov/precip/)

[Gastonwxman]

Loving the look of the current forecasted trend for the NAO/AO, though I'm not going to get excited just yet. Still can change but nice to see nonetheless:

[FallsLake]

Loving the look of the current forecasted trend for the NAO/AO, though I'm not going to get excited just yet. Still can change but nice to see nonetheless:

yes it does look a lot more promising (than from yesterday). Models have been jumping (or just plan sucking) all over the place. It seems that's what they do right before a flip.

[WeatherNC]

Unless I see the MJO forecasts start to indicate a sustained push, maybe getting into phase 7, 8, 1 for the second half of the month, I am going to grow very concerned about the Dec 15-31 period being a non-factor this year. Again, 12z Euro starts to come around at 144, ridging maybe pushing into southern Greenland, sig + anomalies up through AK, SE Canada maybe cooling down...

Roll forward another 96hrs, holly cow, what a flipping dumpster fire, coldistas better hope this is way off from the actual truth, any source of Arctic air is confined to areas polar bears frequent, and maybe staying there for awhile. I know, I know, stop focusing on a 240hr op ec panel, ok, I will wait for the ens mean to come out before I go looking for the hammer and nails. SE SN lovers hoping for a white christmas, may I suggest a cordless screw gun instead.

[LithiaWx]

Unless I see the MJO forecasts start to indicate a sustained push, maybe getting into phase 7, 8, 1 for the second half of the month, I am going to grow very concerned about the Dec 15-31 period being a non-factor this year. Again, 12z Euro starts to come around at 144, ridging maybe pushing into southern Greenland, sig + anomalies up through AK, SE Canada maybe cooling down...

Roll forward another 96hrs, holly cow, what a flipping dumpster fire, coldistas better hope this is way off from the actual truth, any source of Arctic air is confined to areas polar bears frequent, and maybe staying there for awhile. I know, I know, stop focusing on a 240hr op ec panel, ok, I will wait for the ens mean to come out before I go looking for the hammer and nails. SE SN lovers hoping for a white christmas, may I suggest a cordless screw gun instead.

Ouch, December looks ugly... I updated my member title after reading this dreadful scenario.

[SnowDeac]

^{So we have the NAO trending in a solid direction, but now we're still going for a full Dec cancel based on recent models that waffle more than Denny's. Is it safe to say we still have no clue what the long range holds for this month??}

[FallsLake]

What do you guys think about the 18z GFS? Particulary the extended ranges.......showing several potential over-running events. Any merit or total out to lunch?

[Carvers Gap]

The AO is as high as I can remember it. What is the record for positive territory? Can't help but remember last year setting that record in negative territory. The NAO index I'm not buying until it actually does dive. It's been an extremely inaccurate index lately. Last winter the actual pattern was colder than the models predicted. The opposite seems to exist now. It just doesn't get as cold as modeled in the 6-10 day range. Honestly, this winter is beginning to get a warm look - SE ridge, transient cold, NAO/AO look crappy on most days. Now that doesn't mean it can't snow and snow a lot. The atmosphere is juiced right now. I think it unlikely NE TN "cashes in" anytime soon - very, very unlikely. But the good thing...next winter should be banner and the ones after that even. This winter appears to be one that will be tough for folks like me who like snow. Tough to complain after scoring well over the past two or three winters here. I do think it will get cold for a short period. What has been crazy is that January has been cold here after so many winters above normal for that month. I think NE TN gets two cold weeks in (edit: January) when we can really hit the jackpot. On either side of that, it's looking warm. Thought about taking a winter trip to the beach to enjoy the sun.

Edit: The one thing that gives me hope is the idea that JB used to preach about the cold seeming to go where it was rainiest during the fall...My guess is that KTRI will get 5-8 inches this year unless we hit the jackpot.

[N.C.IceAge]

I just laugh when I read all of the post on here about, no winter for the southeast this year,lol.

It's only Dec.2, The first day of winter is not till Dec.21, so it's still Fall, people.

We've got plenty of time yet for winter time weather, which I'm sure we'll get plenty of cold shots and a big snowstorm or two by March, just be patient.

[packbacker]

yes it does look a lot more promising (than from yesterday). Models have been jumping (or just plan sucking) all over the place. It seems that's what they do right before a flip.

Well the PNA is showing it's trending positive, if it's not one thing it's another.

But, I like my chances better with the -NAO and +PNA than a +NAO and -PNA, I guess.

[downeastnc]

I just laugh when I read all of the post on here about, no winter for the southeast this year,lol.

It's only Dec.2, The first day of winter is not till Dec.21, so it's still Fall, people.

We've got plenty of time yet for winter time weather, which I'm sure we'll get plenty of cold shots and a big snowstorm or two by March, just be patient.

Well technically meteorological winter starts Dec 1 so while I agree there is "plenty of time" left the 15-30 day outlook isnt that great for winter weather lovers and well that leaves at best 60 days to start 2012 were we can realistically expect to see major cold snaps. One of the downsides of computer models is they let us look pretty far out and realize we are screwed......

The trend towards lower NAO/AO is the best sign I have seen in awhile and while it might not save us in Dec it could setup a pattern change going into climatologically the coldest period of winter so if we can tap into the cold in Jan it could still be a epic winter for us....the vibe I have however is that any blocking that favors us might be short lived and hard to lock in like the last few winters.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Well the PNA is showing it's trending positive, if it's not one thing it's another.

But, I like my chances better with the -NAO and +PNA than a +NAO and -PNA, I guess.

You want a +PNA and a -NAO to get the real winter cold. The +PNA -NAO couplet is a very good thing for snow lovers in the east

[tnweathernut]

The AO is as high as I can remember it. What is the record for positive territory? Can't help but remember last year setting that record in negative territory. The NAO index I'm not buying until it actually does dive. It's been an extremely inaccurate index lately. Last winter the actual pattern was colder than the models predicted. The opposite seems to exist now. It just doesn't get as cold as modeled in the 6-10 day range. Honestly, this winter is beginning to get a warm look - SE ridge, transient cold, NAO/AO look crappy on most days. Now that doesn't mean it can't snow and snow a lot. The atmosphere is juiced right now. I think it unlikely NE TN "cashes in" anytime soon - very, very unlikely. But the good thing...next winter should be banner and the ones after that even. This winter appears to be one that will be tough for folks like me who like snow. Tough to complain after scoring well over the past two or three winters here. I do think it will get cold for a short period. What has been crazy is that January has been cold here after so many winters above normal for that month. I think NE TN gets two cold weeks in December when we can really hit the jackpot. On either side of that, it's looking warm. Thought about taking a winter trip to the beach to enjoy the sun.

Edit: The one thing that gives me hope is the idea that JB used to preach about the cold seeming to go where it was rainiest during the fall...My guess is that KTRI will get 5-8 inches this year unless we hit the jackpot.

I'll one up you and say we end warmer than the last two years, BUT we do hit the jackpot with an 8-12 inch snow. Total for the year 18-21 inches

[Mr Bob]

I just laugh when I read all of the post on here about, no winter for the southeast this year,lol.

It's only Dec.2, The first day of winter is not till Dec.21, so it's still Fall, people.

We've got plenty of time yet for winter time weather, which I'm sure we'll get plenty of cold shots and a big snowstorm or two by March, just be patient.

[WidreMann]

yes it does look a lot more promising (than from yesterday). Models have been jumping (or just plan sucking) all over the place. It seems that's what they do right before a flip.

There's no indication that there will be a flip. Also, take a look at how bad the 10 and especially 14 days forecasts have been. Absolutely atrocious. And when is the model forecasting the drop? 10-14 days.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Nope, not at all:

There is no pattern change. We can speculate that at some point this winter there will be a pattern change, but there is currently no credible data suggesting a pattern change any time over the next two to three weeks, to say nothing of December.

You be the judge......

[POWERSTROKE]

I just laugh when I read all of the post on here about, no winter for the southeast this year,lol.

It's only Dec.2, The first day of winter is not till Dec.21, so it's still Fall, people.

We've got plenty of time yet for winter time weather, which I'm sure we'll get plenty of cold shots and a big snowstorm or two by March, just be patient.

If models are not showing a pattern change and no moisture then it don't look good. I don't think anybody is throwing in the towel but in the southeast you have to take advantage of every month. The longer into the winter the less chance we get. Yes we have had big snows in feb and march but generally after January it gets scarce.

[Mr Bob]

If models are not showing a pattern change and no moisture then it don't look good. I don't think anybody is throwing in the towel but in the southeast you have to take advantage of every month. The longer into the winter the less chance we get. Yes we have had big snows in feb and march but generally after January it gets scarce.

Exactly...Most of us have punted to January....certainly does not imply there is no chance for the entire winter...and rare is the winter in SE that is back to front cold and filled with precip...Most of us are just looking for that optimum pattern to deliver interesting winter weather. One that gives us the best chances. Closed lows and fleeting in-situ CADs are fine but that is not going to deliver the goods to 95% of the posters down here as the last two winters have. And with the cyclical nature of the AO/NAO many had pinned their hopes that this would follow again this year. So there is likely to be a little disappointment with the start of this one.

[Carvers Gap]

I'll one up you and say we end warmer than the last two years, BUT we do hit the jackpot with an 8-12 inch snow. Total for the year 18-21 inches

Meant to type that we get two cold weeks in January, typical of climo. I don't think we get two cold weeks in December in terms of winter weather - typo on my part. What's scary, with you living in JC and me in Kpt...we could both be right about winter's totals! LOL. Man, I hope you are right.

[Carvers Gap]

Question: Is the CPC NAO ensemble pulled from the 0z GFS or calculated from some other formula? Yesterday, it was diving and seemingly consequently today's GFS maps are cold. Today's NAO is less than optimum. Wonder if tomorrow's GFS will be warm. Can't quite figure out the correlation?

[WidreMann]

You be the judge......

Where's the -NAO/-AO? Where's the real pattern shift? Just because some cold bleeds into the western US doesn't mean there's a big pattern change that would matter to any of us here.

[franklin NCwx]

Where is the torch? Still some snow on the ground here in wnc. Pattern coming up looks colder. Two weeks ago the model were showing torch.

Where's the -NAO/-AO? Where's the real pattern shift? Just because some cold bleeds into the western US doesn't mean there's a big pattern change that would matter to any of us here.

[Cold Rain]

Is the only type of pattern change that everybody will accept as a legit pattern change a -AO and -NAO? Because if that's it, we should lock this thread down for a good while. It may be just me, but I thought there were other other ways to get cold and Winter weather events in the SE. When this thread was started, we had a massive PV in the GOA and a very nice -PNA. Since then, parts of the south and southeast have had snow and we now seem to be moving into more of a +PNA pattern, though it tends to wax and wane. I know we'd all love a big fat Greendland block, but surely there are other patterns or various atmospheric configurations that can lead to Winter weather, right?