LithiaWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Did you miss the several inches of snow in the southeast a few days ago, in November no less? Just come back to troll? Just curious. I think the pattern is pretty exciting. It's obvious we aren't seeing the same signs of record blocking from last year but we also didn't see much hopes of a +PNA last year either and we are staring one in the face this year. IMO It's been a pretty typical fall temps wise, and a heck of a lot wetter for some on this board. Not exactly, the placement of the ridging is not optimal for the east coast cold... The current configuration will direct cold blasts into the mountain west and plains for the most part. We are seeing some ridging but that is not equating to a +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 We have had great storms in "warm" winters (1999,2000) and (2001,2002), we just need to catch a 7-10 period where we get some blocking and hope we get a storm during that period. It seems we have active storms consistently being shown, so we just need the blocking to cooperate. Personally I prefer to have it this way, at least we can save some money on our heating bills enjoy the outdoors and hope we catch lighting in a bottle for a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It also says this on the very next line. It's been a pretty Nina like pattern so far in most of the US, and the nina conditions seem to really be in the cards the fist half of December. Lots of mets don't see any change in the AO till late December or Early January and even that is far from a guarantee. Unfortunately the map Accuweather just put out could easily be dead on. Nina climo is what much of the US has seen so far this season, until there are signs of change expect more of the same. Is the snow we saw in Georgia the other day in November typical of La Nina ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Is the snow we saw in Georgia the other day in November typical of La Nina ? According to the NWS... yes. The current La Nina conditions are expected to peak this winter (just like last winter). Therefore... we (NC) will continue to have an increased odds of above normal Temperatures and below normal Precipitation in the overall D-F 3 month period. (Figures 6-7). However, remember La Nina typically brings surprises with cut off lows (remember January 2000's blizzard). These events become more likely for us when the AO and NAO are negative or strongly negative. If and when we see signs of any change to our current pattern, we will let you know! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/news/content/TypicalLaNina24Nov2011.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 According to the NWS... yes. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/news/content/TypicalLaNina24Nov2011.pdf Yeah, but in November ???????? I saw my first ever snowflakes in November in my entire lifetime !! As far as us having below normal precip this winter, I'm not so sure. I ended up with about 5" in November and November is typically drier than Dec-March ! This very rainy pattern we're in does not seem very La Nina-like to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 According to the NWS... yes. http://www.erh.noaa....na24Nov2011.pdf Interesting of them to say that this type of thing occurs during strong neg AO and-NAO patterns yet we've been having them in + side of both. And both look to remain positive, yet the cutoff's are still showing up strongly. I'd answer yes and no to that though, since Nina's are amplified but not usually this much. So despite the odds, other cutoffs are very possible and maybe likely for the southeast , some will have snow. Also, it's not very dry here for a Nina, and there's more rain coming up in the pattern, so this is a very wet Nina for NC and esp. the interior Southeast...I know ATL has been shafted and the central and eastern Carolinas lately. Latest ECMWF drops plenty more rain next week to 10 days in the Tn Valley and western Carolinas. Its a very active pattern, loaded with moisture, the further inland and west you go, the more so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Yeah, but in November ???????? I saw my first ever snowflakes in November in my entire lifetime !! As far as us having below normal precip this winter, I'm not so sure. I ended up with about 5" in November and November is typically drier than Dec-March ! Look, I have no idea how winter will actually turn out this year. All I know is that I thought this is what we would be seeing back in September when I posted my thoughts about winter. La Nina is a powerful force and while things may not line up perfectly to a La nina winter it is pretty darn close for most of the US. Notice how I used the word most again. Not every area of the country is going to see perfect La nina conditions but it's hard to argue that most of the US has not been La Nina like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It also says this on the very next line. It's been a pretty Nina like pattern so far in most of the US, and the nina conditions seem to really be in the cards the fist half of December. Lots of mets don't see any change in the AO till late December or Early January and even that is far from a guarantee. Unfortunately the map Accuweather just put out could easily be dead on. Nina climo is what much of the US has seen so far this season, until there are signs of change expect more of the same. Thankfully for us Accuweather maps are almost always wrong. It will be interesting to see. The Euro doesn't hold out any hope either. Either way we were spoiled by last winter and I think that early NE snowstorm had people's expectations through the roof. I'll keep watching but don't expect anything till mid Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Interesting of them to say that this type of thing occurs during strong neg AO and-NAO patterns yet we've been having them in + side of both. And both look to remain positive, yet the cutoff's are still showing up strongly. I'd answer yes and no to that though, since Nina's are amplified but not usually this much. So despite the odds, other cutoffs are very possible and maybe likely for the southeast , some will have snow. Also, it's not very dry here for a Nina, and there's more rain coming up in the pattern, so this is a very wet Nina for NC and esp. the interior Southeast...I know ATL has been shafted and the central and eastern Carolinas lately. Latest ECMWF drops plenty more rain next week to 10 days in the Tn Valley and western Carolinas. Its a very active pattern, loaded with moisture, the further inland and west you go, the more so. Yeah, I just noticed that Atlanta only had about 2.50" for November while i'm 45 miles away and had about 5" !! I know in the summer the rainfall can vary tremendously from one area to another but you would think rainfall would be a little more evenly distributed this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Met winter just started today. Lol!! Look, I have no idea how winter will actually turn out this year. All I know is that I thought this is what we would be seeing back in September when I posted my thoughts about winter. La Nina is a powerful force and while things may not line up perfectly to a La nina winter it is pretty darn close for most of the US. Notice how I used the word most again. Not every area of the country is going to see perfect La nina conditions but it's hard to argue that most of the US has not been La Nina like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Is the snow we saw in Georgia the other day in November typical of La Nina ? Snow in GA in November is NEVER typical. Back in 93 or 94 we had flurries on Halloween in downtown ATL with a snow advisory up in Rabun county up thru WNC so I think you are showing your age with your "in my lifetime" comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 We have had great storms in "warm" winters (1999,2000) and (2001,2002), we just need to catch a 7-10 period where we get some blocking and hope we get a storm during that period. It seems we have active storms consistently being shown, so we just need the blocking to cooperate. Personally I prefer to have it this way, at least we can save some money on our heating bills enjoy the outdoors and hope we catch lighting in a bottle for a snowstorm. I was trying to remember just yesterday what the weather was like leading up to the Carolina Crusher of 2000. I don't think that winter was really all that cold. And if it is not going to snow, I'd rather it stay warmer, too. A full week of temps in the 30s with no snow is just miserable and a complete waste of cold air. We have had plenty of that the last two winters. It would be nice to have some decent snows like we did last year, though. We had two in December and one in January around here. This December doesn't look too promising, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Thankfully for us Accuweather maps are almost always wrong. It will be interesting to see. The Euro doesn't hold out any hope either. Either way we were spoiled by last winter and I think that early NE snowstorm had people's expectations through the roof. I'll keep watching but don't expect anything till mid Jan. What's the 8 day euro show? 2 days ago the 10 euro looked promising, at least I thought I read that somewhere in one of these 200 sub forums? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 What's the 8 day euro show? 2 days ago the 10 euro looked promising, at least I thought I read that somewhere in one of these 200 sub forums? lol Not good.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It's always 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Snow in GA in November is NEVER typical. Back in 93 or 94 we had flurries on Halloween in downtown ATL with a snow advisory up in Rabun county up thru WNC so I think you are showing your age with your "in my lifetime" comment. I remember that one as well as November of 2000. We got a quick dusting from an ULL if I remember right. I think that one was around the 17th or so. I've seen a lot of sleet in November too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Not good.... Thanks, There's nothing more boring than a mild winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Thanks, There's nothing more boring than a mild winter. It's only the first ten days of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It's only the first ten days of Dec. I'll get back with you the first 10 days of Jan, And see how it's going! Of course you stand alot better chance than I of getting some winter precip. No doubt we'll have some cold shots for a day or two. I doubt there's ever been a winter without a few cold shots? But i'm speaking in general, From all i've read I don't expect much this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Wound up in the above normal category for Temperature (2.4 degrees) and precipitation (6.34"/ +3.12") here for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It's always 10 days away. LOL....Ain't that the truth! And I'm in nooooo hurry to lose the many warm days we had here on the coast of N.C. during November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It's always 10 days away. Except now, even the 10 day Euro sux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Except now, even the 10 day Euro sux. 2 days ago it looked good at day ten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 2 days ago it looked good at day ten. It probably will two days from now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 If memory serves me correctly Every forecast ,and most members, we talking about a blow torch coming in last Jan and we all know how that turned out.Folks winter doesn.t ever start till 21 of this month . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 This is how I imagine what's going on right now with our pattern: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Maybe we need a mild, snowless winter just to bring us back to reality. The last few winters have really spoiled us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I just hope this December isn't as bad as it was in 2007 or god forbid 2004, talk about a blowtorch. Dec. 2004 was so depressing it took me out of the holiday spirit with how warm it was, I remember many days ranged from the 60s to the low 80s which really blew my mind. We broke a few records too, well at least the week of Christmas it chilled down in a hurry back into the 30s and 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 This is how I imagine what's going on right now with our pattern: :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 If memory serves me correctly Every forecast ,and most members, we talking about a blow torch coming in last Jan and we all know how that turned out.Folks winter doesn.t ever start till 21 of this month . Meteorological winter starts today. This is the first day that all winter above or below normal calculations will be based on. Winter has officially started.....at least for every meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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