Carvers Gap Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 For Subscribers of Weatherbell (Joe Bastardi and Joe D'Aleo) SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) - a key to winter extremes Joe D'Aleo posted a very informative and interesting study this evening on how SSW was the onset to the negative NAO last year and gives a discussion if there will be a repeat this winter season. I can't post the article as it is copyrighted, but I urge all subscribers to check it out. It's a good read. This also ties into the record cold 25,000 temperatures that Joe Bastardi has been writing about over the last 45 days. Does Joe D. see any upcoming SSWs on the horizon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Good news: LR euro showing an arctic outbreak at 240. Bad news: SE ridge back. Hopefully just a result of the energy in the 4 corners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 My eyes keep seeing something around 12/6...watching it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 My eyes keep seeing something around 12/6...watching it! I'd keep my eyes on the next strong wave dropping down the west. It may cutoff there, but might not. It could send a strong storm through here, then followed by the colder air the ECMWF and GFS are advertising. Or the cold air could get here first, then the southwest system comes out, creating the first damming event with freezing/frozen precip in Ga/Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I'd keep my eyes on the next strong wave dropping down the west. It may cutoff there, but might not. It could send a strong storm through here, then followed by the colder air the ECMWF and GFS are advertising. Or the cold air could get here first, then the southwest system comes out, creating the first damming event with freezing/frozen precip in Ga/Carolinas. we could only hope! i know that you really cant say 'we are due' in the wx, but its been a good 6 years now since a strong cad and ice storm in ne ga, which is not as frequent as they were prior to the dec 05 storm. would love to be able to track a cad with moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 All the models have been showing the pattern changing to a tall PNA pattern which is good for bringing much colder air down, now the ECMWF is pretty adamant about it as well. Word of caution though, there's still so many cutoffs and strong s/w in the flow that models are probably still going to have a hard time with the pattern, so more surprises are coming. With so much colder air now getting pulled down though this will make future storms have more snow involved with them, so it could remain fun and interesting for a while. I'd keep my eyes on the next strong wave dropping down the west. It may cutoff there, but might not. It could send a strong storm through here, then followed by the colder air the ECMWF and GFS are advertising. Or the cold air could get here first, then the southwest system comes out, creating the first damming event with freezing/frozen precip in Ga/Carolinas. I it when you talk like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 From Dr. Ryan Maue: @RyanMaue: Worth watching the forecasts for next few days. Some of the current NCEP Ensembles show historic/record smashing cold http://policlimate.com/weather/ensemble/gens_t2m_anom_usa_f.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 OK, here's a random comment I saw on the 'net', but it fits in with what Foothills has been banging that this is an un-La Nina like pattern.... "A persistent -EPO is a means to get a sustained cold pattern. Do not be worried about transient cold shots while the wavelengths are short. Why waste the cold and blocking now? What has my attention is that while SOI numbers have jumped La Nina positive AAM is in the neutral range (may slip below -1 in the coming weeks). Even though the phrase "La Nina" is being used by the mainstream the pattern has some characteristics that are not La Nina-like. The subtropical jet stream and AAM > -1 SD.. This explains why the short wavelength season is not like last year which turned sharply colder in late autumn. The heart of winter (January) should provide a great deal of east coast excitement." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 OK, here's a random comment I saw on the 'net', but it fits in with what Foothills has been banging that this is an un-La Nina like pattern.... "A persistent -EPO is a means to get a sustained cold pattern. Do not be worried about transient cold shots while the wavelengths are short. Why waste the cold and blocking now? What has my attention is that while SOI numbers have jumped La Nina positive AAM is in the neutral range (may slip below -1 in the coming weeks). Even though the phrase "La Nina" is being used by the mainstream the pattern has some characteristics that are not La Nina-like. The subtropical jet stream and AAM > -1 SD.. This explains why the short wavelength season is not like last year which turned sharply colder in late autumn. The heart of winter (January) should provide a great deal of east coast excitement." Great write up. I have been hearing a lot of people locally were i live say oh this winter is toast and that it is going to be very mild and i'm like it's just November. So what if December is a transition month. We still have January to really get going. Also could you explain what the AAM is. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 There's something to watch in the long range. the 06z gfs shows the potential for a system moving across the SE us then up the coast. The 0z run showed this as well, not a terrible look as we head into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 The GFS and Euro seem to be consistent with hinting towards a good cold shot next week. 6z even has potential for a storm in the 180 hour range. The Euro has a cold chasing rain frontal passage scenario but it's still probably worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 The GFS and Euro seem to be consistent with hinting towards a good cold shot next week. 6z even has potential for a storm in the 180 hour range. The Euro has a cold chasing rain frontal passage scenario but it's still probably worth keeping an eye on. Yeah, the GFS at 6z had the 850s cold enough, but a cold chasing the precip scenario seems more realistic right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Yeah, the GFS at 6z had the 850s cold enough, but a cold chasing the precip scenario seems more realistic right now. Well the 6z OP GFS has the NAO going slightly negative so a storm at the flip of the NAO would make some sense...It's to bad it doesn't have support from ENS and it's a departure from the 0z OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 The SOI is really running high lately,highest numbers I've seen since last winter.The 90 day average is up to 10.75 today so I'd say this La Nina is getting some teeth. AO and NAO are still raging so I don't see any blocking soon,+PNA may help with some cold/cool shots though.MJO is fairly strong but will be going through the warm phases soon. I don't think the hay is in the barn yet concerning this winter but it looks sorta bad right now but things can change quickly. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 The SOI is really running high lately,highest numbers I've seen since last winter.The 90 day average is up to 10.75 today so I'd say this La Nina is getting some teeth. AO and NAO are still raging so I don't see any blocking soon,+PNA may help with some cold/cool shots though.MJO is fairly strong but will be going through the warm phases soon. I don't think the hay is in the barn yet concerning this winter but it looks sorta bad right now but it's just my opinion. FWIW - Nothing looks too good at this point in time. BUT - I looked at my last two Nov NWS daily readings, and based only on that, nothing looked good then, either. We'll see .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 What is the record positive mark for the AO? Almost like the opposite of last winter. Incredible really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 So when is the snow coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 So when is the snow coming? I don't think anybody would dare try to quess. We have to get the pattern in our favor. Currently the NAO is "very" positive (not good). If you split the difference (below graph) it looks like it might go to neutral by mid-month. But the question if it does; does it just jump right back up or continue stepping down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Accuweather's New Winter Outlook... http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathercom-20112012-winter-1/58451 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 So when is the snow coming? Winter 2012/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Accuweather's New Winter Outlook... http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathercom-20112012-winter-1/58451 seems pretty reasonable.... Southeast Looking Chillier than Previously ExpectedBring out the jackets and hats, because it is looking cooler than previously thought for the interior Southeast for December. The nights will be exceptionally chilly. Temperatures are expected to climb higher in January and February, as an area of high pressure is expected to set up along the Southeast coast and pump milder air from the Gulf of Mexico northward into the region. In general, winter 2011-2012 is expected to be milder than last winter. There will be a low chance for a damaging freeze in the citrus area this year. "Florida looks drier than normal," Pastelok said. "The farther north and west you travel, the wetter it gets." "Watch for potential flooding in the lower Mississippi," warned Pastelok. An active storm track around the northern and western periphery of high pressure dominating in the Southeast will allow above-normal precipitation to fall in the lower Mississippi Valley. The severe weather season could begin picking up in the Mississippi Valley and perhaps eastern Texas and Oklahoma in February. In March, severe weather will become more likely in this zone, which was hit hard by tornadoes in the spring. "Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee, which were devastated by tornadoes in the spring, will be extremely sensitive to any severe weather outbreaks," stated Buchman in the initial Winter 2011-2012 Forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Not looking good for turning colder, even though now we have a pattern change. The big trough out west is replaced with ridging, but so far its such a highly amplified flow the trough still keeps carving out in the Plains and Rockies, putting the Southeast in the definite warm sector. GFS is ugly and l can't find much reason to argue with it yet. The cold front mid next week has been looking weaker and weaker, thanks to the re-developing and retrograding flow out west and in the Plains. So unless the Euro comes in vastly different it doesn't look too cold, in fact its probably going to be near to above normal the next couple of weeks unless there's a lot of clouds and rain to help keep temps in check. West of the Apps in the Tenn valley that looks to be the case. Looks like another soaker of a month coming up for the Ohio/Tenn Valleys. Hate to bear some bad news for cold lovers at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Looks like we're fighting the death ridge for a while,the cold fronts are going to have a tough time even getting here much less clearing the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 seems pretty reasonable.... Looks pretty much like climo to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 How's that 384 hour pattern change coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Looks pretty much like climo to me. Looks exactly like climo. Mild along the Gulf Coast. Little Frozen precip for us. Sounds like a typical winter. It also says this for the southeast : Southeast Looking Chillier than Previously Expected Bring out the jackets and hats, because it is looking cooler than previously thought for the interior Southeast for December. The nights will be exceptionally chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 How's that 384 hour pattern change coming? the pattern did change. There's a ridge out in the eastern Pacific now, where there was a huge deep trough for several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 How's that 384 hour pattern change coming? It lasted about 384 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Looks exactly like climo. Mild along the Gulf Coast. Little Frozen precip for us. Sounds like a typical winter. It also says this for the southeast : Southeast Looking Chillier than Previously Expected Bring out the jackets and hats, because it is looking cooler than previously thought for the interior Southeast for December. The nights will be exceptionally chilly. It also says this on the very next line. Temperatures are expected to climb higher in January and February, as an area of high pressure is expected to set up along the Southeast coast and pump milder air from the Gulf of Mexico northward into the region. It's been a pretty Nina like pattern so far in most of the US, and the nina conditions seem to really be in the cards the fist half of December. Lots of mets don't see any change in the AO till late December or Early January and even that is far from a guarantee. Unfortunately the map Accuweather just put out could easily be dead on. Nina climo is what much of the US has seen so far this season, until there are signs of change expect more of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 How's that 384 hour pattern change coming? Did you miss the several inches of snow in the southeast a few days ago, in November no less? Just come back to troll? Just curious. I think the pattern is pretty exciting. It's obvious we aren't seeing the same signs of record blocking from last year but we also didn't see much hopes of a +PNA last year either and we are staring one in the face this year. IMO It's been a pretty typical fall temps wise, and a heck of a lot wetter for some on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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