SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[Cold Rain]

It's been showing this kind of change for a week now and it keeps getting pushed back and nerfed. In the winter time, the GFS is always going to try to show some sort of pattern change because it will tend to trend towards climo, which features a trough in the east and a ridge in the west. It's not at all exciting that the 10+ day GFS or Euro show a different pattern. They show a new one each day and they are nearly invariably wrong about it. Why are you trying to defend people who take these things to be legitimate? Why do you do it when other factors argue against a pattern change any time soon? Go look in HM's threads in the main weather forum. Read Wes's posts. None of them support a pattern change before mid-December and many argue for January before we even get hints of a change. These models are unlikely to be right against the plethora of factors (La Nina, SSTAs, MJO, etc.) that argue against a pattern change. So I tell you this: you are not making a reasonable claim by saying that the models might be sniffing out a pattern change. The GFS beyond 7 days is crap. Get over it.

This is a good discussion.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Any time you would like to meet and discuss this topic in person....I am here in Chattanooga...come on down! I would be happy give this opinion directly to your face. Many around here know who I am. Whoever you are...the cowardly comment is just completely out of bounds...

It is not a personal assault to tell the truth about something. I did not insult CAD specifically. Only YOU make YOU feel stupid....I have never made that assertion. Frankly, I would have stayed out of this thread if some posters including the moderator had not started in on Widre because he was posting the reality of the situation...

Really?? These are not the type of comments we want in our forum. Further more.....you did insult me specifically, and I took offense to it.

[Lookout]

Really?? These are not the type of comments we want in our forum. Further more.....you did insult me specifically, and I took offense to it.

What on earth is wrong with what he said? He was simply replying to what he felt someone was accusing him of.

You should not take offense to what he said though. He was simply giving you advice because he knows a few things about such subjects. In fact, in all the years I have known him he has never tried to insult or belittle good posters such as yourself. Weenies on the other hand are a different story

Just try not to take things so personally and seeing insults that aren't really there and trust me I've know him long enough to know that was not his intent.

[Mr Bob]

Really?? These are not the type of comments we want in our forum. Further more.....you did insult me specifically, and I took offense to it.

It is not a challenge to fight...I got in a fight once in 8th grade and got slaughtered... But, I am not some cowardly person commenting anonymously. I would be happy to discuss with ANYONE face to face as the assertion was made earlier that I or Widre were cowardly (since withdrawn).

Weenie speculation on fantasy progs have always been the type of comments that have not been wanted or condoned on "our" forums. The SE has been the very best at staying away from such stuff. Perhaps that has changed now (though I think not). I insulted the idea of the post, not you...until you get over that perhaps you should move away from the keyboard or put me on ignore.

[BullCityWx]

If the 0z Euro is right, no pattern change for the next 20 or so days. Clock keeps ticking...

[Cold Rain]

If the 0z Euro is right, no pattern change for the next 20 or so days. Clock keeps ticking...

When this thread was started, there was a HUGE PV sitting in the AK and if memory serves, there was a weak SE ridge. You won't find that feature on the the new Euro. The Pacific is looking much better than it was at the inception of this thread. The long range EURO then was continuing to show a SE ridge. 0Z Euro looks much better. Now, if we're defining pattern change to mean only a locked in -NAO with a cold and snowy SE, then yes...there is no pattern change now or shown anywhere on any model. But good pattern, bad pattern, whatever pattern, the pattern is different now than it was on the 13th of November.

[BullCityWx]

As long as Ive been here a pattern change meant a change to an opposite pattern. As we head past the cut off next week, temps look to moderate to normal to slightly above normal temps. The AO is still strongly positive(nearly maxed out if you believe the 6z GFS), plus the NAO is strongly positive and the PNA is strongly negative. There may be no ridge but this upcoming pattern isn't that dissimilar from what's occurred for most of fall. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't doubt, given the parameters indicated by the models, that we're even milder than what the models indicate in the MR.

You guys might not want to hear it but it almost seems like this pattern is locked in.

[FoothillsNC]

When this thread was started, there was a HUGE PV sitting in the AK and if memory serves, there was a weak SE ridge. You won't find that feature on the the new Euro. The Pacific is looking much better than it was at the inception of this thread. The long range EURO then was continuing to show a SE ridge. 0Z Euro looks much better. Now, if we're defining pattern change to mean only a locked in -NAO with a cold and snowy SE, then yes...there is no pattern change now or shown anywhere on any model. But good pattern, bad pattern, whatever pattern, the pattern is different now than it was on the 13th of November.

True. the big deep vortex that was in the Alaska and helped carve a deep west coast trough for the last 2 weeks is weaker, and is being replaced with ridging soon. All the models have it, with a pretty strong PNA somewhere in western Canada (maybe even rex block) or eastern Alaska, so that is helping carve out an eastern Trough, not to mention the mega- cutoff in the southeast with it being something like 5 standard deviations below normal, where once was a big ridge. It might not get super cold down here but technically its a pattern change. Still no neg NAO however.

[Carvers Gap]

So true. This morning's CPC ensembles show quite a dramatic shift to a positive NAO. Those ensembles have been unable to lock-in on a solution for quite a while, and in IMO, should not be trusted at the moment based on this last flip. PNA still looks somewhat in our favor though. For sure, the pattern is "iffy" at best for widespread artic cold in the East anytime in the near future, at least through mid-December. This December will look nothing like last December. For me, I have felt the first 1/3 of winter would be cold and the last 2/3 would be warmer against the averages. If December plays out the way the models look today, this winter may not look pretty unless of course you like winter golf. Read on another thread that the Hudson Bay is not frozen. Going to need some cold in Canada if we are going to get cold for any long period. I do wonder if the current cut-off is not causing mayhem w/ the models. However, this season is about to show that it can snow w/out conditions being optimal. If the weather stays "juiced" (lots of qpf), we all may hit anyway. In other words, some winters have been cold and dry...we get little snow. This winter it may be warm w/ much qpf...and we might get snow if the cold is timed correctly. I'm still not buying a wet winter since that goes right in the face of a La Nina pattern. But that appears to be in the cards based on how wet the ground is here.

[Cold Rain]

As long as Ive been here a pattern change meant a change to an opposite pattern. As we head past the cut off next week, temps look to moderate to normal to slightly above normal temps. The AO is still strongly positive(nearly maxed out if you believe the 6z GFS), plus the NAO is strongly positive and the PNA is strongly negative. There may be no ridge but this upcoming pattern isn't that dissimilar from what's occurred for most of fall. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't doubt, given the parameters indicated by the models, that we're even milder than what the models indicate in the MR.

You guys might not want to hear it but it almost seems like this pattern is locked in.

Ok, fair enough.

The 240 Euro shows ridging up into AK with a trough hanging back toward the SW. The 240 GFS 0Z shows no trough in the SW and nice PNA ridging. Much different than what we've seen recently. And yep, the NAO and AO are still positive. Maybe the upcoming pattern is a step toward a better pattern for cold and snow? I don't know, but it's different than what we have been in.

And by the way, it's got nothing to do with whether or not anybody wants to hear something. I'm certainly capable of accepting the fact that the whole month of December might be warm. So might the Winter. It'll be what it will be. But regardless of that, the pattern can change abruptly or more gradually. Maybe, just maybe, it's possible this Winter, the pattern changes gradually. Maybe? If so, is it worth talking about? Maybe not, though. Maybe we should avoid discussing it at all until it looks like severe cold and snow for the SE is imminent. Whatever you guys want.

[DaculaWeather]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

303 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2011

VALID 12Z WED NOV 30 2011 - 12Z SAT DEC 03 2011

...WINTRY PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 THIS PERIOD...

AS WE HEAD INTO DECEMBER...TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TEAMS

UP WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC JUST OFFSHORE

THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA SHOULD LEAD TO A POSITIVELY TILTED

TROUGH SPANNING THE CONTINENT FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE WESTERN

UNITED STATES WITH HEIGHTS REBOUNDING ACROSS THE EAST. THE

GUIDANCE SHARES THESE IDEAS. DETAIL ISSUES CONTINUE TO ABOUND OUT

EAST...WHERE A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET MADE THE MOST

SENSE PER THE MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION /PMDHMD/. THIS

PREFERENCE WAS KEPT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...THE END OF THE UKMET

RUN. THEREAFTER...THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF WERE IN REASONABLE

AGREEMENT SO USED A COMPROMISE OF THOSE PIECES OF GUIDANCE LATE

THIS WEEK. THIS SET OF MODEL PREFERENCES MAINTAINED REASONABLE

CONTINUITY.

SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO

VALLEY EARLY ON WITHIN THE EASTERN CYCLONE COMMA HEAD UNTIL THE

SYSTEM EXITS INTO CANADA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN ITS

WAKE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY

THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO UPSLOPE SNOWS ACROSS MONTANA

AND WYOMING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE HIGH MOVES OFF

TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS. INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE

INTERIOR WEST SHOULD LEAD TO OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR THE WEST COAST

BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT SATURDAY.

HOWEVER...NEAR THE CORE OF THE CLOSED LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE

WEST... MODERATE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT

BASIN/SOUTHWEST/POSSIBLY THE SIERRA NEVADA LATE NEXT WEEK.

DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR EAST THE DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE WEST

TRACKS...SNOW IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY FROM THE BIG COUNTRY OF TEXAS

NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT

LAKES/NORTHEAST SHOULD ALSO DROP SOME SNOW FROM THURSDAY INTO

SATURDAY.

[Carvers Gap]

Ok, fair enough.

The 240 Euro shows ridging up into AK with a trough hanging back toward the SW. The 240 GFS 0Z shows no trough in the SW and nice PNA ridging. Much different than what we've seen recently. And yep, the NAO and AO are still positive. Maybe the upcoming pattern is a step toward a better pattern for cold and snow? I don't know, but it's different than what we have been in.

And by the way, it's got nothing to do with whether or not anybody wants to hear something. I'm certainly capable of accepting the fact that the whole month of December might be warm. So might the Winter. It'll be what it will be. But regardless of that, the pattern can change abruptly or more gradually. Maybe, just maybe, it's possible this Winter, the pattern changes gradually. Maybe? If so, is it worth talking about? Maybe not, though. Maybe we should avoid discussing it at all until it looks like severe cold and snow for the SE is imminent. Whatever you guys want.

Last winter, NE TN (as did most of the SE) went from a significant, prolonged period of cold(December to mid-January)....to a rather mild pattern and really never looked back. I am suspecting that my suspicions for winter (a cold early 1/3 of winter) may very well be wrong. I am thinking, based on what I'm reading on AmWx, that it may be early-mid Jan to early Feb for cold. That's an easy forecast, huh - lol? Basically, that's climo for when it is coldest. The way this pattern is working, it may actually be cold for Christmas. I do get the feeling that if this pattern flips this winter, it will be abrupt. Could be gradual? For sure. If it were the 90s, I'd mail this winter in. Seems like once those winters went warm(no matter how early it happened), it rarely turned cold again. I'm thinking, like Foothills, that we've entered a new type of winter pattern. It may be the models don't handle the "new reality" well. My one ray of hope is that it has been a wet November in the mountains. That is rare here.

[Cold Rain]

True. the big deep vortex that was in the Alaska and helped carve a deep west coast trough for the last 2 weeks is weaker, and is being replaced with ridging soon. All the models have it, with a pretty strong PNA somewhere in western Canada (maybe even rex block) or eastern Alaska, so that is helping carve out an eastern Trough, not to mention the mega- cutoff in the southeast with it being something like 5 standard deviations below normal, where once was a big ridge. It might not get super cold down here but technically its a pattern change. Still no neg NAO however.

Robert, do you feel that it's more likely that we may gradually step into a more favorable pattern, or do you feel like it's more likely to change abruptly at some point...if it does at all?

We can still do ok in a +PNA pattern, if things are timed correctly (which is usually the most important thing down here anyway), even if the NAO isn't being cooperative.

[tnweathernut]

Last winter, NE TN (as did most of the SE) went from a significant, prolonged period of cold(December to mid-January)....to a rather mild pattern and really never looked back. I am suspecting that my suspicions for winter (a cold early 1/3 of winter) may very well be wrong. I am thinking, based on what I'm reading on AmWx, that it may be early-mid Jan to early Feb for cold. That's an easy forecast, huh - lol? Basically, that's climo for when it is coldest. The way this pattern is working, it may actually be cold for Christmas. I do get the feeling that if this pattern flips this winter, it will be abrupt. Could be gradual? For sure. If it were the 90s, I'd mail this winter in. Seems like once those winters went warm(no matter how early it happened), it rarely turned cold again. I'm thinking, like Foothills, that we've entered a new type of winter pattern. It may be the models don't handle the "new reality" well. My one ray of hope is that it has been a wet November in the mountains. That is rare here.

Funny you mention the 90s. While you are right about it being warm, KTRI still scored three separate snow events that produced over 20 inches each. 1993, 1996, and 1998. If this winter as a whole is warmer, that might not be such a bad thing with all these cutoffs floating around. One thing is a certainty though, time will tell.

[FoothillsNC]

Robert, do you feel that it's more likely that we may gradually step into a more favorable pattern, or do you feel like it's more likely to change abruptly at some point...if it does at all?

We can still do ok in a +PNA pattern, if things are timed correctly (which is usually the most important thing down here anyway), even if the NAO isn't being cooperative.

So far we seem to be having major cutoffs which are loaded in the pattern, and any one place can still hit it big with those. Being so incredibly amplified (just look at how steep and anomalous this cutoff/trough is going to be) the pattern will probably keep repeating. There seems to be a tendency for us to bounce between a Southeast ridge then a deep trough in the Tenn Vally or Ohio Valley. Now we can see a developing PNA thats pretty impressive but the models are having a hard time in placing the strong cutoffs, the next one may be in the Southwest, or it may retrograde even further off the west coast (rex block) and that would allow cold to come into the Eastern half of the country, and we get into a semi split-flow regime. All this is conjecture, but with PNA patterns we'd get colder but still could be a strong temp boundary near the Gulf States and an ejection of waves from California or the Baja. With no NAO in place, we're just plain old very active...and there's still no end in sight to that, its' actually funner to watch the weather this way to me, than having to wait every 2 weeks for a system.

Funny you mention the 90s. While you are right about it being warm, KTRI still scored three separate snow events that produced over 20 inches each. 1993, 1996, and 1998. If this winter as a whole is warmer, that might not be such a bad thing with all these cutoffs floating around. One thing is a certainty though, time will tell.

[Carvers Gap]

Funny you mention the 90s. While you are right about it being warm, KTRI still scored three separate snow events that produced over 20 inches each. 1993, 1996, and 1998. If this winter as a whole is warmer, that might not be such a bad thing with all these cutoffs floating around. One thing is a certainty though, time will tell.

Was '98 the year that Johnson City received that huge snowfall and Kingsport did not? One year we received a big storm and you all did not, the next year JC received it and KPT did not. We all thought one of our co-workers was lying when he said that he couldn't get to work because of the snow in Johnson City - fifteen miles away. Then we saw the news and new it was the truth! He came to work three days later because of trees down in his yard. Kingsport received like two inches at best. Johnson City was dumped on. During '93 I was at UT during the blizzard and that was epic. '96 I worked in Knoxville and they didn't get near the storms that year that KTRI did. I still regret missing that winter. I do think KTRI received such huge snows because the pattern was juiced, similar to now. That said, it was probably the worst snow decade in Knoxville in sixty years. And until the last few winters, the snows had not returned. That being said, I should probably give my location during that period for perspective - Knoxville from '89-'97, '97-'01 Kingsport, '02-'06 Johnson City, '06-present Kingsport. I can say that Johnson City(and I think we have discussed this before) gets significantly more upslope snow than Kingsport where it is non-existant - though '98 was not upslope. Was that '98 event similar to this upcoming one? I'm thinking that it was.

edit: I'm going to have to get my storms straight, but I'm going to need your help on this one. It may be that '98 Kingsport received a big snow, but the downtown station didn't report large amounts due to being downwind of a large chemical plant. Maybe it was '99 where JC scored big and KPT received zero.

[ncjoaquin]

Was '98 the year that Johnson City received that huge snowfall and Kingsport did not? One year we received a big storm and you all did not, the next year JC received it and KPT did not. We all thought one of our co-workers was lying when he said that he couldn't get to work because of the snow in Johnson City - fifteen miles away. Then we saw the news and new it was the truth! He came to work three days later because of trees down in his yard. Kingsport received like two inches at best. Johnson City was dumped on. During '93 I was at UT during the blizzard and that was epic. '96 I worked in Knoxville and they didn't get near the storms that year that KTRI did. I still regret missing that winter. I do think KTRI received such huge snows because the pattern was juiced, similar to now. That said, it was probably the worst snow decade in Knoxville in sixty years. And until the last few winters, the snows had not returned. That being said, I should probably give my location during that period for perspective - Knoxville from '89-'97 and KTRI, '97-'01 Kingsport, '02-'06 Johnson City, '06-present Kingsport. I can say that Johnson City(and I think we have discussed this before) gets significantly more upslope snow than Kingsport where it is non-existant - though '98 was not upslope. Was that '98 event similar to this one? I'm thinking that it was.

'98 was huge here. They kept saying it was going to change to rain and it did for a time in south Buncombe. AVL and north stayed all snow. I got 16 inches of snow from that. It had to be the fastest January big snow melt that I can ever remember. But, when it was snowing, it was snowing hard!

[Carvers Gap]

'98 was huge here. They kept saying it was going to change to rain and it did for a time in south Buncombe. AVL and north stayed all snow. I got 16 inches of snow from that. It had to be the fastest January big snow melt that I can ever remember. But, when it was snowing, it was snowing hard!

Kingsport received 4 inches if we are talking about the same storm in January. Seems like it was 38 degrees in Kingsport and was snowing heavily because of some weird set-up in the atmosphere.

Link to KPT data

[ncjoaquin]

Kingsport received 4 inches if we are talking about the same storm in January. Seems like it was 38 degrees in Kingsport and was snowing heavily because of some weird set-up in the atmosphere.

Link to KPT data

Probably the same one: Here is a NOAA write-up,

Jan. 26-28, 1998 Surprise Southern and Central Appalachian Snowstorm

Vigorous upper circulation spawned surface cyclogenesis along the southeast coast. This system was expected to be too warm to produce winter precipitation. However, low levels of the atmosphere over the Appalachian mountains cooled sufficiently to support wet snow. And snow it did! AVL ended up with a foot, and there were reports of up to 3 feet along the spine of the Appalachian chain from NC/TN northward into WV and VA! This storm would make an excellent case study (there were no winter storm watches out prior to SN+ beginning). Note: Eta precipitation type output indicated freezing rain for southwest NC, while point forecast soundings looked more like snow. Mesoeta forecasts 18 hours prior to onset of precipitation indicated over 1 inch per hour snowfall over a small area of southwest NC around AVL between 09Z and 12Z on 1/27, and turned out to be right on. Warmer temperatures in mid levels skewed thickness rules toward mixed rain/snow or sleet, but these precipitation types were not observed in significant amounts...it was mostly heavy wet snow

[Carvers Gap]

Probably the same one: Here is a NOAA write-up,

Jan. 26-28, 1998 Surprise Southern and Central Appalachian Snowstorm

Vigorous upper circulation spawned surface cyclogenesis along the southeast coast. This system was expected to be too warm to produce winter precipitation. However, low levels of the atmosphere over the Appalachian mountains cooled sufficiently to support wet snow. And snow it did! AVL ended up with a foot, and there were reports of up to 3 feet along the spine of the Appalachian chain from NC/TN northward into WV and VA! This storm would make an excellent case study (there were no winter storm watches out prior to SN+ beginning). Note: Eta precipitation type output indicated freezing rain for southwest NC, while point forecast soundings looked more like snow. Mesoeta forecasts 18 hours prior to onset of precipitation indicated over 1 inch per hour snowfall over a small area of southwest NC around AVL between 09Z and 12Z on 1/27, and turned out to be right on. Warmer temperatures in mid levels skewed thickness rules toward mixed rain/snow or sleet, but these precipitation types were not observed in significant amounts...it was mostly heavy wet snow

Absolutely, that's it! We didn't have a snow advisory. My parents in west Kingsport(and we aren't that big) had 18". Two miles away, 4". The steep gradient was due to who was downwind of two large industries. The snow was almost gone by evening the next day. I went jogging in the rain before a bible study. I could barely walk back because the change over dropped two inches on the roads and sidewalks before I could get back. Drove to my parents in my truck and had to park it(only time I've had to do this) at a gas station 1.5 miles away. Most unexpected snow I've ever seen.

tnweathernut...Then it should have been the following winter where parts of Johnson City near Buffalo Mtn. got hammered.

[FoothillsNC]

Probably the same one: Here is a NOAA write-up,

Jan. 26-28, 1998 Surprise Southern and Central Appalachian Snowstorm

Vigorous upper circulation spawned surface cyclogenesis along the southeast coast. This system was expected to be too warm to produce winter precipitation. However, low levels of the atmosphere over the Appalachian mountains cooled sufficiently to support wet snow. And snow it did! AVL ended up with a foot, and there were reports of up to 3 feet along the spine of the Appalachian chain from NC/TN northward into WV and VA! This storm would make an excellent case study (there were no winter storm watches out prior to SN+ beginning). Note: Eta precipitation type output indicated freezing rain for southwest NC, while point forecast soundings looked more like snow. Mesoeta forecasts 18 hours prior to onset of precipitation indicated over 1 inch per hour snowfall over a small area of southwest NC around AVL between 09Z and 12Z on 1/27, and turned out to be right on. Warmer temperatures in mid levels skewed thickness rules toward mixed rain/snow or sleet, but these precipitation types were not observed in significant amounts...it was mostly heavy wet snow

I got a write up on that one in the book I'm working on.

[ncjoaquin]

I got a write up on that one in the book I'm working on.

Very good!! Already sounds like a must read.

[nchighcountrywx]

For Subscribers of Weatherbell (Joe Bastardi and Joe D'Aleo)

SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) - a key to winter extremes

Joe D'Aleo posted a very informative and interesting study this evening on how SSW was the onset to the negative NAO last year and gives a discussion if there will be a repeat this winter season.

I can't post the article as it is copyrighted, but I urge all subscribers to check it out. It's a good read.

This also ties into the record cold 25,000 temperatures that Joe Bastardi has been writing about over the last 45 days.

[MADDOGG]

Here's hoping for a good cold shot next week that hangs with us. Maybe we can get a nice frozen christmas(tree is going up tommorow)

[FallsLake]

Looking atthe Ensemble plots this morning, and it does look better for the SE. Even theSpaghetti Plots tend to show a trough in the east for day 10 plus. Below is the850mb temp probability for hour 264.

[FoothillsNC]

All the models have been showing the pattern changing to a tall PNA pattern which is good for bringing much colder air down, now the ECMWF is pretty adamant about it as well. Word of caution though, there's still so many cutoffs and strong s/w in the flow that models are probably still going to have a hard time with the pattern, so more surprises are coming. With so much colder air now getting pulled down though this will make future storms have more snow involved with them, so it could remain fun and interesting for a while.

[Teebo]

I got a write up on that one in the book I'm working on.

If you want to have an e-book, without the costs of publishing, go to Smashwords. I'm working on something myself and found this site.

Let me know when it's completed. Til then, I'll keep checking out your forecasts here.

Teebo

[FallsLake]

All the models have been showing the pattern changing to a tall PNA pattern which is good for bringing much colder air down, now the ECMWF is pretty adamant about it as well. Word of caution though, there's still so many cutoffs and strong s/w in the flow that models are probably still going to have a hard time with the pattern, so more surprises are coming. With so much colder air now getting pulled down though this will make future storms have more snow involved with them, so it could remain fun and interesting for a while.

Robert, I see the PNA changing in our favor but the NAO looks to stay strongly positive for the next two weeks. Question; can the PNA overwhelm the effects of thepositive NAO. Models seem to show this but could this be a problem?......negative NAO saved us last year and I would love to have it on our sideagain.

[packbacker]

1322406746[/url]' post='1145494']

Robert, I see the PNA changing in our favor but the NAO looks to stay strongly positive for the next two weeks. Question; can the PNA overwhelm the effects of thepositive NAO. Models seem to show this but could this be a problem?......negative NAO saved us last year and I would love to have it on our sideagain.

I find it hard to see us getting snow with positive NAO/AO, we need it negative even if it's just for a week and then we have to hope for a storm to come through during that week. So hopefully in Jan we can get lucky, catch a 7-10 day period of +PNA, -AO and -NAO. Hopefully a Met will tell me I am wrong that we can overcome a positive AO/NAO in the south.

[FoothillsNC]

Robert, I see the PNA changing in our favor but the NAO looks to stay strongly positive for the next two weeks. Question; can the PNA overwhelm the effects of thepositive NAO. Models seem to show this but could this be a problem?......negative NAO saved us last year and I would love to have it on our sideagain.

Well with a +PNA pattern we'd generally be seasonable to below on temps with less precip normally, but we still have so many s/w's and cutoffs in the flow, any one can buckle somewhere and still give a winter event (similar to whats now about to happen around TN/MS) . But with a +PNA pattern alone usually the cold will be in and out quickly, and we would keeep repeating the pattern. We could also turn very warm even with +PNA pattern if the flow is still very amplified such that a trough remains out west or in the western Plains/Rockies, putting us in a Ridge. Seems to be a little war going on in the GFS and ECMWF right now regarding how to handle the next system. The latest ECMWF drops so much energy out west over the ridge we would warm up. GFS leaves the door open to other possibilities. Even without a neg NAO, just with all the loaded energy in the flow, I wouldn't think we're in for the year with No Winter in the Carolinas.