rduwx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Here we go again. Euro dropping the cut-off down into TX at Day 7. Looking like the 12z so far. I will say it's further south this run. At 180 it has a closed 500 low in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Is it a bad thing that it wants to hold cutt off in Texas? Yes, the cold air would retreat into the northeast as the low cuts off in TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Big storm in the gulf at 192 but no cold air to be found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Big storm in the gulf at 192 but no cold air to be found. Yep. It's a broken record with the temperature part. Retreats far north compared to the previous frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Yep. It's a broken record with the temperature part. Retreats far north compared to the previous frame. Its all about kicking that energy out faster before the nrn stream retreats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 @ 210 and 216 it moves NE, slightly inland but still no cold. That sure would be a fun storm if we had some cold. Oh well, if only. Still the euro and gfs are worlds apart as far as the timing of this storm goes. We should find out the winner in the next few days. Goodnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That's the only good thing about the two models. Neither wants to cave into the other's solution so it's up in the air. All bets are off on how that system's handled with the streams but I remain interested to see how this evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 So gfs shows decent chance of snow? And euro shows rainstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 So gfs shows decent chance of snow? And euro shows rainstorms? On the Euro maps.. you honestly want to see "540" thickness values for a chance for snow. Even on top of that, you have to worry about the surface temps. The GFS needs to be a bit west with the low to give good snow to North Georgia. The Euro is a totally different look with the storm. The problem we have here is the models aren't very accurate right now and sadly the GFS is out-doing the Euro pretty well so far. We are out in the long range and things will change as we come closer. They always do. The snow bands moving through the mountains and SE areas right now.. are overperforming and some areas are getting snowfall that weren't supposed to see it at all as an example. Edit: even cae saw a couple flakes earlier tonight.. our forecast discussion even said the airmass was too dry to worry about any precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Thanks for the answer! And they are over performing I saw a decent snow shower and I wasn't expected to! I am just nervous that gfs will change to what euro is showing! But who knows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Thanks for the answer! And they are over performing I saw a decent snow shower and I wasn't expected to! I am just nervous that gfs will change to what euro is showing! But who knows! Sadly you won't know outside of 72-84 hours the way the models are performing. You seem new.. I would pay attention to FoothillsNC's posts. He's a meteorologist who knows what he's talking about. He said one of these cutoff lows will give someone something big in the SE sometime this year and he's been spot on this year as always. You'll see many maps posted in these threads. Don't just go by a map that says "850mb" and has a bright blue line through your area expecting snow as some people do. I learned that the hard way. I'd also recommend checking out threads not just in the Southeast section, you can learn a lot. There's quite a few threads on how to use programs like "Bufkit" and things of the sort that will really help you down the road. I used Bufkit a few days ago and saw the models having 80%+ humidity in the atmosphere during this recent snow chance in the SE and was able to accurately tell people around here to expect a flurry or two. And I'm still a newbie! Also.. if you check out used book stores online.. you can snag some good meteorology books for like $2-$5 shipped from colleges etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Thanks for all your help I will try that! And you just taught I thought the 850 means its cold enough for snow! Well thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Thanks for all your help I will try that! And you just taught I thought the 850 means its cold enough for snow! Well thanks! Sometimes seeing a blue line that says "0" at 850 is cold enough. There's more to it though. I would highly recommend this site: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/ they offer free courses on all kinds of weather related topics online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 the ecmwf run was pretty impressive in my opinion. Taken into account its biases, here's what I think it shows. First atleast its' in the ballpark of GFS through 120 hr or so, then the changes begin. Both split the stream, and the lakes wave allows cold air to press into Tenn Valley to Carolinas, and both show the weak 1020 to 1024 high. But Ecm. thins out the cold air quickly but doesn't get all that warm. It has a new Lakes wave come in that pushes out the high pressure to the north, but GFS maintains it before cutting off a system, and GFS has a bigger intrusion of cold further west and south, before it cuts the system off. ECMWF cuts off further west and has less cold that gets infused. However both models have grown colder, and pushed colder further south. There's no way to know yet if either model is accurate yet, as either solution could easily occur (or none). Yesterdays run had the day 10 system phasing with the Gulf storm as it pulled north, but last nights run keeps the streams just separate to prevent a major bombing out, instead it runs the bowling ball cutoff from the Gulf coast to up the east coast as a huge cold rainmaker, taken literally. However that track is climo for a major interior southeast snowstorm, and is already close to cold enough verbatim on ECMWF for Southern Appalachian Major Snowfall. It shows 850 temps of 0 to +4 with pockets of sub zero on the nw side of the low, where the heavy precip is. The runs next few days should spell out how much cold gets pushed south, and how the evolution of any storm goes. Could be there is only a sheared out wave and the Ecm is overdoing the cutoff. Or could be a blend of GFS/ECMWF type of system, which would be the Southeast first widespread winter storm. Plenty of chances and yet another fun storm to follow, this time with cold air perilously close. All models are showing yet another cold blast following the storm and keep western ridging for a very long time. So much for the warm January idea. And its pretty neat to see 3 and 4 contour cutoffs modeled travelling along the Gulf coast in January...gives my earlier ideas a leg to stand on (maybe) . We need as much cold to work in before any system develops and dont' want a massive deep system or it pulls in too much warmth...a fine line there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 06 z GFS develops some Alaska blocking at 288 (and cross polar flow) ...this is the first run that brings it closer, but its still not in the 10 day window. Also has a large arctic outbreak just after our Gulf storm next week, so it has a very cold airmass dumping into the country, and the beginning stages of another one around or after the 288 Alaskan ridge. Again , where the sets up exactly means everything on where the cold and warmth lines up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Man if we get that block working during the next month or two i believe we all would be in bidness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I keep forgetting the settings on this new skin is not 20 posts per page so I think 1700 posts are enough lol. Time for a new thread..and as usual you know I don't like to start them so someone please do the honors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I keep forgetting the settings on this new skin is not 20 posts per page so I think 1700 posts are enough lol. Time for a new thread..and as usual you know I don't like to start them so someone please do the honors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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