packbacker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Looks good at 162...850's are cold enough but 2m temps look terrible. I'm surprised it wouldn't be colder at the surface. The 1024 retreats north some, we need it to be stronger and stick around, the first wave that rolls through at 120 acts as a semi block but it's trickling north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Nice, the NAO is looking to be nearly neutral around this time period as well. If only we could get a nice strong High pressure over the NE to feed us some cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 GFS a week ago showed this exact setup and storm on the same day. Really wish I had saved the frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 A few inches of snow is possible according to that setup for some folks down east. Kind of reminds me of that Christmas storm last year. IIRC very similar setup on the models, The Euro of course bombed the hell out of it going up the coast and the GFS had it sheering out but then started catching on with a run like this and it progressively got stronger on the GFS. Probably wishful thinking on my part but it's exciting if it can keep it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 ...and the GFS is back with another storm @240 it might be go time boys and girls. We're finally getting some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 ...and the GFS is back with another storm @240 it might be go time boys and girls. We're finally getting some hope. Yeah, the 0z gfs is showing a rinse and repeat pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Kind of reminds me of that Christmas storm last year. IIRC very similar setup on the models, The Euro of course bombed the hell out of it going up the coast and the GFS had it sheering out but then started catching on with a run like this and it progressively got stronger on the GFS. Probably wishful thinking on my part but it's exciting if it can keep it up. Strangely enough that's what I was thinking while looking through the frames. With a pattern like this, you can't help but think if we can get another setup like the one involved with our Christmas storm. I have some hope for such a scenario but remaining cautious on the matter. Anything goes seems to be the theme with this winter so far what with the wild swings and such (just look at the massive storm the GFS showed during New Years before dropping it a few runs back). Hopefully that will be the theme here as we push toward the second and third week of this month with a system or two on the horizon and not way out past the Day 10 period. I still remain optimistic about our chances being increased for fun and games down the road but right now we need to get through this week first with our cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 GFS looks pretty warm in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 ...and the GFS is back with another storm @240 it might be go time boys and girls. We're finally getting some hope. 240 is a nice rainstorm for most everyone south of the mason dixon. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 GFS looks pretty warm in the long range. Yep went all down the toilet around hour 288. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 240 is a nice rainstorm for most everyone south of the mason dixon. TW I know it's tough to read between the panels...and the look at 240 isn't correct...but if there was a storm like it was showing there is cold enough air and thickness to be all snow for many. Hell verbatim much of WNC would be all snow given sfc temps are below freezing...of course that is me speculating what is between the frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 GFS looks pretty warm in the long range. It went all La Nina on us, which would be great for our heating bills but not snow. Looks like what JB is calling for. The SE ridge looks to be a beast :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 If the euro shows a glimpse of the 144 storm I think we're in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 GFS looks pretty warm in the long range. Yes, this run builds a huge ridge in the central Pacific which forces a deep western trough, and southeast ridge. That option has always been on the table. It drops a huge very cold airmass into the northern Plains and western States, with the country bisected from SW to NE. I mentioned earlier a while back that where the ridge shows up means everything for longwave placement. Some runs have had it west, some east. Some middle. The point is the GFS still loves the idea of a major ridge somewhere near Alaska, or south or even north of there. Later in the run it moves toward western Alaska and pushes the cold our way. The key on how this all may play out, and why we're now seeing a storm at day 5 and 6 is possibly the fact the current system developing off the East Coast gets so strong, it turns the flow like a neg. NAO in Greenland , which supresses things temporarily and forces cold air south again, and the southern rockies system to take the low road. It could end up being lucky in perfect timing of events. Who knows. But the offshore system has gotten stronger each run lately....a testament to the very strong , hi amped flow we're in. And if GFS is right the next the first half of January could be a lot colder than the Euro weeklies were showing. Pretty impressive bust, if the GFS is right on all these cold airmasses that keep dropping south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 0z Canadian has a 998mb surface low just east of RIC at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 0z Canadian has a 998mb surface low just east of RIC at 144 hours. Perfect. GGEM is always the furthest NW. Bet the Euro run is a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 hr 156 0z ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Looks like it tracks right across the Apps, from about Chattanooga to the ENE. Perfect. GGEM is always the furthest NW. Bet the Euro run is a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 hr 156 0z ens. That's the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Action packed pattern.... Great opportunity for all to learn and for meteorological skill sets to be tested! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Even with a perfect 500mb wave and sfc low track, there would still be major cold air concerns given the setup to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That's the OP apologies...wrong one, bed time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Even with a perfect 500mb wave and sfc low track, there would still be major cold air concerns given the setup to the north. True, borderline cold never works out for our areas, but hopefully we can get lucky and that high to our north somehow gets stronger. But like you said we need a storm first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 If this ensemble mean page is up to date, the op GFS may not look much like it's Ensembles in the longer range. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 if it is updated, looks to hold onto the cold through LR and hr 144 looks interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The 0z euro still wants to hold the energy back and try to close off in Tx. at hr 162. By that time the 0z gfs had it off the NC/SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Here we go again. Euro dropping the cut-off down into TX at Day 7. Looking like the 12z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Is it a bad thing that it wants to hold cutt off in Texas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Here we go again. Euro dropping the cut-off down into TX at Day 7. Looking like the 12z so far. Fits the seasonal pattern, we'll see though still a ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The 0z euro still wants to hold the energy back and try to close off in Tx. at hr 162. By that time the 0z gfs had it off the NC/SC coast. UKMet is doing the same thing, but further west in New Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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