Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Clippers to Sprint across the Country. Pattern Change in February Dec 29, 2011; 8:06 AM ET Disco 1. The map below shows the clippers coming through with the snow. Most of the snow is going to be on the light side with an inch on average. South of the clipper track, it will get warm with showers. 2. The cold weather coming in for a few days next week will produce a lot of lake-effect snow; in fact, it could be a best chance for heavy lake-effect snow next week. 3. Looking at the longer range, January, I feel, will remain on the mild side despite intrusions of cold air. February is when we should see the big turnaround in the weather pattern as the La Nina weakens. In fact, I would not be surprised to see the La Nina turn around into an El Nino. We should see the blocking coming back in February and thus snow will return to the Eastern part of the country. This could be on the greatest turnarounds in the winter pattern we have seen in a long time. I had some vacation time last week,either take it or loose it,so I spent some time checking out hopes of a pattern change in our winter weather .I found Henry Margusity on Accuweather .Sounds very encouraging to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Big time model flip-flopping is usually a sign of a pattern change. It's not uncommon to get a big storm somewhere at the end of the current pattern or start of the new one, but where it forms is just a guess. I noticed the model verification scores on Day 5 and 6 have a large spread. Euro is showing .911 on Day 5 and .845 on Day 6 while the GFS is .880 on Day 5 and .803 on Day 6. If there is that much drop in a day, I can only imagine what they look like as you get farther out past a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Big time model flip-flopping is usually a sign of a pattern change. It's not uncommon to get a big storm somewhere at the end of the current pattern or start of the new one, but where it forms is just a guess. I noticed the model verification scores on Day 5 and 6 have a large spread. Euro is showing .911 on Day 5 and .845 on Day 6 while the GFS is .880 on Day 5 and .803 on Day 6. If there is that much drop in a day, I can only imagine what they look like as you get farther out past a week. I'm not an active poster, but enjoy reading the boards on a regular basis. This post caught my attention. Is there a quick explanation for how the models are scored? What qualifies as a "verified" forecast? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I'm not an active poster, but enjoy reading the boards on a regular basis. This post caught my attention. Is there a quick explanation for how the models are scored? What qualifies as a "verified" forecast? Thanks I use this site because it's quick and easy, these are 500 MB only. I'm sure there are other stats elsewhere, but I'm too lazy to look for them, lol http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Is there a place to ask "in my backyard" questions? I'm planning my daughters 14th birthday party on Jan. 13th. A bonfire party. Just wondering if I need an indoor backup plan. TWC doesn't show the weather forecast that far out yet. Is there another place that is reliable for me to check the forecast? FWIW anytime you plan an important outdoor activity you need an alternate date or an indoor backup plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 lol and 216 and beyond Euro says, "NOPE". Dr. No for a reason. What little bit of cold there was is retreating as moisture starts to move further northward. The ULL is gone and we're gonna be stuck with rain if the Euro is correct. It actually says winter on after that with arctic air crashing Southeastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 It sounds like folks are getting more excited about the chance of winter weather around here later in January. I'll believe it when I see it. Too far out now to tell, and the models are so wishy-washy. I just don't see us getting many chances for snow around here this winter. I'll gladly take one huge snow storm, though. If we get a monster snow, that'll make up for only having one storm versus three or four. I don't see the latter happening, so the best hope is for one big snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 It actually says winter on after that with arctic air crashing Southeastward It'll likely be transient though, since there's no mechanism to lock it in. That's the problem with the upcoming pattern, as it appears. Although better than torching for the whole month, like December, quick shots of in and out cold will make a widespread winter storm difficult to achieve. As usual, it'll come down to timing. But in this type of pattern, the odds favor rain, followed by cold, followed by a warm-up, followed by rain, followed by cold, followed by a warm-up, followed by.... We really need to see some blocking develop in favorable locations to keep the cold air around, or at least close by. And we need to keep the PNA positive, which the Euro pretty much shows. And we need to keep the active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 it seems like we are back to the way it was a few years ago. there are always things to watch on the models, but as we get closer to the date of the so called event it fades away and then there is another one about a week out we really got spoiled the last two years didnt we That's the same as it was the last two years, too. We just got lucky and got two or three snows out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 That's the same as it was the last two years, too. We just got lucky and got two or three snows out of it. around here the last two years gave me more than 4' of snow in almost too many events to remember lol. so this year has been pretty abysmal winter wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 18z has what might be a light snow event reading between the panels at hour 252 - 264....of course it's cold chasing moisture which almost never works out but at least 18z is now showing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 18z has what might be a light snow event reading between the panels at hour 252 - 264....of course it's cold chasing moisture which almost never works out but at least 18z is now showing something. The 18z run looks like a it's just recycling the pattern over and over, to what we are currently going through. Strong cold fronts coming through, warm up, than another strong cold front. Hopefully we can pop a low in the gulf and we can time one of these out. The good news, I would guess, is after the PNA ridge breaks down it rebuilds later on, fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 By the way GFS in the LR is just "meh". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 18z has what might be a light snow event reading between the panels at hour 252 - 264....of course it's cold chasing moisture which almost never works out but at least 18z is now showing something. Yep, followed by a rainstorm at 276, followed by a -PNA, no blocking, and a heatwave. It would be hard to imagine a much worse mid-January weather pattern, if you're a snow lover, than what the 18Z GFS is showing. As good as yesterday's 12Z run was in the LR, this one is that bad. But, I guess if you adhere to the rule about it being the 18Z GFS showing a crappy pattern the day after New Year's in the year that's supposed to be the end of the world, then you would simply throw the run out entirely and wait for the 0Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 18z GFS continues to show a cold pattern. While this run is a bit on the boring side, January is beginning to yield surprises not predicted by medium to long range models. For example, I have had blowing snow and 30mph winds outside my front door all day. We almost never get upslope snow where I am in the Valley. The pattern has not been boring this winter - just not snowy. If we can get cold injected into the equation, I think we'll be in business. There is so much chaos in the pattern, really only the upcoming pattern(not the details) can be seen, albeit dimly. Until the models can grasp the newly evolving pattern, there are going to be differen solutions each run. To me, w/ cold northwest flow just to our north, ice seems to become a bigger player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Yep, followed by a rainstorm at 276, followed by a -PNA, no blocking, and a heatwave. It would be hard to imagine a much worse mid-January weather pattern, if you're a snow lover, than what the 18Z GFS is showing. As good as yesterday's 12Z run was in the LR, this one is that bad. But, I guess if you adhere to the rule about it being the 18Z GFS showing a crappy pattern the day after New Year's in the year that's supposed to be the end of the world, then you would simply throw the run out entirely and wait for the 0Z run. 18z GFS continues to show a cold pattern. While this run is a bit on the boring side, January is beginning to yield surprises not predicted by medium to long range models. For example, I have had blowing snow and 30mph winds outside my front door all day. We almost never get upslope snow where I am in the Valley. The pattern has not been boring this winter - just not snowy. If we can get cold injected into the equation, I think we'll be in business. There is so much chaos in the pattern, really only the upcoming pattern(not the details) can be seen, albeit dimly. Until the models can grasp the newly evolving pattern, there are going to be differen solutions each run. To me, w/ cold northwest flow just to our north, ice seems to become a bigger player. Are you kidding me right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Yep, followed by a rainstorm at 276, followed by a -PNA, no blocking, and a heatwave. It would be hard to imagine a much worse mid-January weather pattern, if you're a snow lover, than what the 18Z GFS is showing. As good as yesterday's 12Z run was in the LR, this one is that bad. But, I guess if you adhere to the rule about it being the 18Z GFS showing a crappy pattern the day after New Year's in the year that's supposed to be the end of the world, then you would simply throw the run out entirely and wait for the 0Z run. Ok, basically everything I just said was categorically and unequivocally inaccurate....except for the part about throwing it out in the apocalyptic new year. Apparently, I was looking at a cached view or something on my other computer. LR looks pretty cold, actually, like CG said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Are you kidding me right now? My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 My bad. It's cool - I just could not figure out whom was looking at what and how many, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Are you kidding me right now? I posted w/out seeing Cold Rain's original post. I went back and watched the loop of the 18z GFS several times once I saw it. I'm glad Cold Rain was looking at a an old run...I was seriously beginning to doubt my novice ability to read that model. LOL. Pretty funny stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 IMHO 18z didn't look too cold in the LR...just looked seasonal but 18z has been on that train for awhile. Weird that the off hours GFS has had a different look from the 00z and 12z runs when they both get a lot of their data from the same source (or is this wrong?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Ok, basically everything I just said was categorically and unequivocally inaccurate....except for the part about throwing it out in the apocalyptic new year. Apparently, I was looking at a cached view or something on my other computer. LR looks pretty cold, actually, like CG said. Analogs are important. What was the winter like just before the last time the world ended? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Analogs are important. What was the winter like just before the last time the world ended? ` Y2k not a good winter for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The next potential event for us will be the s/w diving down the Rockies next weekend, and where it goes, how it evolves. None of the models are going to model it correctly yet, but its such a close call right now as far as potential track and potential cold enough temps for somewhere in the Southeast, it's the thing to keep an eye on. If there becomes enough separation in the flow, with the first wave draping a front far enough south, with a decent high and confluence in the Lakes/NE, then we may have something. A cutoff in Texas probably would be no good as far as snow/ice since the cold would slide out and the southern system gets pushed out like ECMWF had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The 12z Euro gives credence to the 08 Analog...which in January was quite the roller coaster after a very warm December...The primary difference being the precipitation amounts...very dry that fall and winter. On the whole, it finished slightly below normal across most of the SE. It appears we have something to watch finally... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Analogs are important. What was the winter like just before the last time the world ended? Cloudy, with a chance of heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Analogs are important. What was the winter like just before the last time the world ended? Last time the world ended it was Jan. and it was pretty terrible, but, oddly, just before the end of the month, and the end of the world, the pattern changed and it got lots colder. The Feb. after the end of the world had record breaking cold and sleet/snow which didn't melt all summer long, and this became the impetus for the next "end of the world" saga. Fortunately that only turned out to be an ice age. CR may have been at Joe's party, so we best speak quietly and give him lots of rope for a few more days. 18z looked colder than a lot lately, and the cold and wet were trying real hard to meet up over my house....but it is the 18z and I've always understood the 6 and the 18 didn't get the same heavy doses of data as the 12 and 0z. Has that changed? The 6 was for if you got up early and were waiting on the 12, and the 18 was just for happy hour entertainment purposes only. Meanwhile, I'm still looking at near two weeks without rain!! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 IMHO 18z didn't look too cold in the LR...just looked seasonal but 18z has been on that train for awhile. Weird that the off hours GFS has had a different look from the 00z and 12z runs when they both get a lot of their data from the same source (or is this wrong?). IMO the 18z ensemble mean looks better than the OP. I still think without some blocking we are going to have to catch lighting in a bottle (for areas outside of the mountains). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Last time the world ended it was Jan. and it was pretty terrible, but, oddly, just before the end of the month, and the end of the world, the pattern changed and it got lots colder. The Feb. after the end of the world had record breaking cold and sleet/snow which didn't melt all summer long, and this became the impetus for the next "end of the world" saga. Fortunately that only turned out to be an ice age. CR may have been at Joe's party, so we best speak quietly and give him lots of rope for a few more days. 18z looked colder than a lot lately, and the cold and wet were trying real hard to meet up over my house....but it is the 18z and I've always understood the 6 and the 18 didn't get the same heavy doses of data as the 12 and 0z. Has that changed? The 6 was for if you got up early and were waiting on the 12, and the 18 was just for happy hour entertainment purposes only. Meanwhile, I'm still looking at near two weeks without rain!! Tony I think I ate too much porterhouse or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Last time the world ended it was Jan. and it was pretty terrible, but, oddly, just before the end of the month, and the end of the world, the pattern changed and it got lots colder. The Feb. after the end of the world had record breaking cold and sleet/snow which didn't melt all summer long, and this became the impetus for the next "end of the world" saga. Fortunately that only turned out to be an ice age. Wow! You're even older than you look! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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