dsaur Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I like those closed systems that come and go off the Pac. coast. As soon as one appears there is action in the gulf. I so want one to lock in out there and send gulf system after system heading for Fla., lol. I'm ready for some historic sleet piled on my plate. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 it seems like we are back to the way it was a few years ago. there are always things to watch on the models, but as we get closer to the date of the so called event it fades away and then there is another one about a week out we really got spoiled the last two years didnt we Indeed. those last 2 years were pretty easy flows in general, made forecasting into day 7 a breeze, compared to this year's type of flow. The problem this season since October is that the flow is riddled with waves and anything can amp up at a moment's notice. The models will miss a small wave, and that throws things off rapidly downstream. I'm afraid we may never get anything to lock on to, good or bad, beyond 5 days , atleast not for a while until the flow can stabilize, get blocking, etc. Until then, expect massive changes, sometimes for, sometimes against, our hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Is there a place to ask "in my backyard" questions? I'm planning my daughters 14th birthday party on Jan. 13th. A bonfire party. Just wondering if I need an indoor backup plan. TWC doesn't show the weather forecast that far out yet. Is there another place that is reliable for me to check the forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Is there a place to ask "in my backyard" questions? I'm planning my daughters 14th birthday party on Jan. 13th. A bonfire party. Just wondering if I need an indoor backup plan. TWC doesn't show the weather forecast that far out yet. Is there another place that is reliable for me to check the forecast? With the way the models have been performing, you may want to wait until less than a week away for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 at 156 hr, the ecm and gfs are similar with a cold front draped across the mid south to the southwest system. The high in the lakes is weak, but the zero line stretches from Roanoke to northern Arkansas, so the northern edges of Ark, Tenn and western Va may have to watch how cold it gets if any moisture returns north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 @168 cold air looks to be coming down and there is some development in the GOM ...lets see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I am listening, but my gut tells me it simply shears out. Thanks for the pbp burger and Robert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 This run looks about like I thought it would, with it trying to cutoff a system in Texas or on the western edge of the boundary. It doesn't push enough cold air south into Tn and NC but it's not that warm or has a strong temp gradient either, so its something to watch. The models won't get the energy right yet, who knows if it shears or pinches off. Even Tx. could have snow since the cold part of the trough hangs back there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Now a different solution from the Euro looks like that ULL idea is gon (looks like I spoke to soon) and there is a good low brewing in the GOM...who knows where it goes though or if there will be enough cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 One thing is almost certain, wait until the next model run if you want to see something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Looks to be going negative at 198...ULL in TX but no cold air for us...should be interesting to see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Now a different solution from the Euro looks like that ULL idea is gone and there is a good low brewing in the GOM...who knows where it goes though or if there will be enough cold air. by 180 the cold air is wearing thin , but theres a little under the weak cutoff in Texas and some in the Midatlantic, but a new front is coming across the lakes, so getting a high pressure in position is not in the cards this run. It would be nice to have the cold air come down harder for the East next Monday, then the Texas system roll under toward the Gulf states with the high in position...thats that "key" timing we usually need. This will be a thorn in our side for afew days until models agree which way it goes. The cold is not far off, but its a long shot at this point for anyone in the south yet. (other than maybe Tex) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 192 has the cut-off way down into southern TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Things look to be getting interesting at 210 that low is pumping moisture from the GOM into the SE with the ULL lagging behind it skirting along the coast. Looks like it's going slightly NE but hard to tell. Might end being on the right side of it for once only time will tell.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 One thing is almost certain, wait until the next model run if you want to see something different. that about sums it up. The pattern only re-iterates the propensity for lots of cutoffs this season. And tight amped up/tall meriodonal flows. A cutoff in Tx, big Rockies ridge, cutoff west of California, big central Pacific ridge, deep western Pacific trough or cutoff, A couple more big ridges toward the east Atlantic. Looks like late in this run it builds a big western Canada ridge, and here comes the cold outbreak. Meanwhile, the texas cutoff is a nice, juicy, soaking for the South as it comes east. Its all about timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Things look to be getting interesting at 210 that low is pumping moisture from the GOM into the SE with the ULL lagging behind it skirting along the coast. Looks like it's going slightly NE but hard to tell. Might end being on the right side of it for once only time will tell.. We need it to close off over GA/SC, otherwise it's going to move west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 With the way the models have been performing, you may want to wait until less than a week away for that. Snow would actually be really cool. A bonfire party along with sledding and dancing in the barn! lol I'm just praying it doesn't rain. Oh well...if it rains, I guess we'll have a houseful of 15 teenagers. ACK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 lol and 216 and beyond Euro says, "NOPE". Dr. No for a reason. What little bit of cold there was is retreating as moisture starts to move further northward. The ULL is gone and we're gonna be stuck with rain if the Euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Very amped up run for sure, and around 216 hours it develops a massive western America ridge. The other notable standout is the enormous nearly closed warm ridge over western Europe. France and the UK look to get very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 We need it to close off over GA/SC, otherwise it's going to move west of us. it ccould do that, but this run rolls it across the gulf Coast, with a nice soaker of a rainstorm all across the South. Too bad there's no cold air by that time here, it would be a nice one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Well at least in the LR @240 there appears to be pretty cold air spilling into the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I'll gladly take the rain Dr No has to offer....need the pattern to continue with the gulf low's, then add a little blocking, or some perfect timing and the snow weenies will rejoice It's getting there....one step at a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 By 240, the Southeast low is getting absorbed into the deep incoming trough, so its going to bomb out just after 240 on this run. Tha would help pull down a huge chunk of Arctic air, but all this is out in the 10 day period. This would turn into a major Appalachian /Ohio Valley snowstorm taken literally, which we cant do. All depends on the southwest system and how it evolves or gets sheared starting in about 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I'll gladly take the rain Dr No has to offer....need the pattern to continue with the gulf low's, then add a little blocking, or some perfect timing and the snow weenies will rejoice It's getting there....one step at a time Agreed, gives some hope down the road with the cold hopefully coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Yep close but no cigar with this run if there isn't any cold air. One thing I noticed is at least compared to the 0z run it takes the cut-off further south (instead of cutting through the Upper Southeast) so track-wise it was good. Just need colder air to hang around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Robert mentioned it earlier...if we could get a stronger push of cold Days 5 and 6, then we would be in business for whatever comes out of the Southern Stream... BTW, I could only imagine what the Euro would look like if it had a map for 264? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Three things, 1. Good to see a general pattern of ridge west and trough east on the GFS and EURO. Any warm ups we see will not be long lived if this is correct 2. Very cold air on our side of the globe. 3. We continue to see very energetic systems and cut-offs showing up on a regular basis. My feelings are that it's only a matter of time. Someone in the southeast is going to get clocked by snow at some point later this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Three things, 1. Good to see a general pattern of ridge west and trough east on the GFS and EURO. Any warm ups we see will not be long lived if this is correct 2. Very cold air on our side of the globe. 3. We continue to see very energetic systems and cut-offs showing up on a regular basis. My feelings are that it's only a matter of time. Someone in the southeast is going to get clocked by snow at some point later this month Good points. I guess we need just a bit of blocking to help our window get a little larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Robert mentioned it earlier...if we could get a stronger push of cold Days 5 and 6, then we would be in business for whatever comes out of the Southern Stream... BTW, I could only imagine what the Euro would look like if it had a map for 264? I'd love to see that as well, it would probably make any 384 GFS map jealous. I'm sure we'll get a different look next run. But again the models do want to push that zero threshold a little more and more southerly days 5 and 6, close, but not there yet. I'd prefer to see a stronger surface high sandwhiched to the north, as of now its only showing 1024 to 1028 though. Three things, 1. Good to see a general pattern of ridge west and trough east on the GFS and EURO. Any warm ups we see will not be long lived if this is correct 2. Very cold air on our side of the globe. 3. We continue to see very energetic systems and cut-offs showing up on a regular basis. My feelings are that it's only a matter of time. Someone in the southeast is going to get clocked by snow at some point later this month All good points. It does seem that the models want to keep a ridge out west, and any warm ups for most of the upper south atleast are brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 so far it looks like the euro is bowing to the gfs again. It at least has lost the warm look and lakes cutter. Hopefully this can pan out for a few folks. I'd love to see that as well, it would probably make any 384 GFS map jealous. I'm sure we'll get a different look next run. But again the models do want to push that zero threshold a little more and more southerly days 5 and 6, close, but not there yet. I'd prefer to see a stronger surface high sandwhiched to the north, as of now its only showing 1024 to 1028 though. All good points. It does seem that the models want to keep a ridge out west, and any warm ups for most of the upper south atleast are brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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