wh_adkins01 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I'm using instantweathermaps.com to get the Euro images. Go there but you have to save it and then upload to a site like tinypic. Can't hotlink the images. You should be getting the latest images like I am if you refresh the page and click next. Thank you very much...much better! Time to get a little sleep, I'm beginning to think I'll be loosing alot over the next several weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Interesting bits from GSP's discussion: LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A QUICK WARMING TREND IS ON HAND THU THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE PATTERN DEVELOPING INTO FLAT RIDGING THU THROUGH FRI. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE STRENGTHENING OFF TO THE WEST BY SAT MORNING AND A DECENT WAA FLOW WILL ALLOW MAXES TO REACH PROBABLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS ARE SUSPECT ON SUN AS INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE QUESTIONABLE DEPENDING ON WHICH MODELED SOLN PANS OUT...IF ANY. THE FASTER 00Z GFS SWINGS A COLD FRONT QUICKLY THOUGH THE AREA SAT...BUT ADDITIONAL CYCLOGENESIS MOVING NE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN GA ON SUN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO INCREASED/MAINTAINED CLOUD COVER AT THE VERY LEAST AND KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM SAT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BELIEVES A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DEVELOP SAT ACROSS THE CWFA AND WAFT SLOWLY SE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD PRODUCING RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIP AMOUNTS ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS NORTH AND WARM HIGHS SOUTH. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING MID CHANCE POPS AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO PAN OUT ONE WAY OR THE OTHER AND IS FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICALLY. LOW LEVEL H100-H85 THICKNESSES REMAIN HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 135 DM...SO NO P/TYPE ISSUES ARE HAD THROUGH SUN. HOWEVER LOOKING PAST DAY 7...IT IS POSSIBLE THE UPPER LOW/TROF COULD HAVE A WINTRY TYPE IMPACT BY THE TIME IT CROSSES THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUE. THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THAT PARTICULAR SCENARIO AT THIS POINT THOUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 00z Euro did look interesting for this time period. Showed a mild and off and on wet weekend with a few waves of rain moving through. The big rain comes on Monday on the front side of the Cut-Off Low moving through. Areas to the west like West Tennessee, Arkansas, and Nrn Mississippi Changed over to Snow under the cold air on the backside. This Cutoff moves directly over Nrn GA around 12z Tuesday AM, so should see that Snow rotating in across Nrn Alabama, Nrn GA and East Tennessee. Areas west of the Apps would see some snow on the backside according to the 00z Euro. What I love best about this run is the 240 hr map which shows yet another huge shot of Cold heading down the plains and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 The old rule of thumb has always been if a low closes off west of the Mississippi, then it almost always runs the apps or Lakes cutter. But I don't beleive this wave is a straight product of the STJ, so not sure if that rule works out. Learned this from WOW last year. Be nice to get lucky early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 the storm up and vanished like a fart in the wind on the 6Z GFS. But I think it did something similar with the previous night's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 the storm up and vanished like a fart in the wind on the 6Z GFS. But I think it did something similar with last night's runs. It left a piece if energy in the southwest, which is why it was different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 both models have a very active pattern. And a huge storm in or east of Japan, and ridging west Canada at times. The GFS even has a closed high in the north Pacific sometimes which looks like a split flow, with cold in the center and east, but nothing is "sustained". By day 10 the ECMWF has a big 1040 high and very cold coming down, with a good look, but each run has something different. I noticed the cutoff in the Southwest isn't there, instead it moved east. There's plenty to watch and its not boring, but you really can't put your finger on anything solid past 7 days, there's just too much going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Again during the off/hour(6z) the GFS -op breaks away from ensemble with it's AO forecast. The ensmbles have been in the tank consistently for a while now. The euro op stays consistent with it's ensembles in keeping AO slightly posittive long range. Watch it line back up today at 12z, then switch off at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 It's really starting to look like Jan might not have a negative AO/nao. We are going to have to get lucky to see snow (outside of the mountains). Again during the off/hour(6z) the GFS -op breaks away from ensemble with it's AO forecast. The ensmbles have been in the tank consistently for a while now. The euro op stays consistent with it's ensembles in keeping AO slightly posittive long range. Watch it line back up today at 12z, then switch off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 It's really starting to look like Jan might not have a negative AO/nao. We are going to have to get lucky to see snow (outside of the mountains). it also looks like Jan. won't be a blow torch in the East or southeast as many were thinking just a week ago. The models look typically "winterish" for us, with a lot of things going on and cold reloading. It's always timing (lucky strike) on us to get a snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I agree with you, Robert. I like the looks overall of the medium range guidance. While there is really not a specific system to hang our hat on, I like the looks of these toughs diving into the eastern US which seem to want to split at times into the southern Plains. And like you said, I see no sign of blowtorch. I also get the feeling the modeling is suggesting the pattern gets unsettled again soon, so there will probably be chances to be had. it also looks like Jan. won't be a blow torch in the East or southeast as many were thinking just a week ago. The models look typically "winterish" for us, with a lot of things going on and cold reloading. It's always timing (lucky strike) on us to get a snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 What I like, unlike December, is that artic air will be around if a large storm roars up the coast. The Euro kicks out its piece of energy in the SW that it had been hanging on to...We'll see what 12z does. That seemed to be locking the cold out of the East during subsequent time frimes. The CPC's AO teleconnection site has been a mess, so it's tough for me to tell where it's heading. To me, it is beginning to look like a progressively colder pattern where December looked like a progressively warm pattern. We are heading in the right direction w/ the best two months of winter to spare. May even be a spring storm in the cards this year w/ the cold staying at the pole for so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 What I like, unlike December, is that artic air will be around if a large storm roars up the coast. The Euro kicks out its piece of energy in the SW that it had been hanging on to...We'll see what 12z does. That seemed to be locking the cold out of the East during subsequent time frimes. The CPC's AO teleconnection site has been a mess, so it's tough for me to tell where it's heading. To me, it is beginning to look like a progressively colder pattern where December looked like a progressively warm pattern. We are heading in the right direction w/ the best two months of winter to spare. May even be a spring storm in the cards this year w/ the cold staying at the pole for so long. As you and a few others have pointed out, the pattern seems to be headed the right way at the climatological best/coldest time. Could bode well for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 It's really starting to look like Jan might not have a negative AO/nao. We are going to have to get lucky to see snow (outside of the mountains). it also looks like Jan. won't be a blow torch in the East or southeast as many were thinking just a week ago. The models look typically "winterish" for us, with a lot of things going on and cold reloading. It's always timing (lucky strike) on us to get a snowfall. Allan Huffman did a case study of significant snow storms for RDU (6" or more). He found that in most cases there was actually a negative anomaly over Greenland, meaning a -NAO may not be that important for snow in central NC (I don't know how that plays out for the rest of the SE). The most important factors include a 50/50 low, ridging in eastern AK/NW Territories, and a low anomaly in the western Aleutians. So, like Robert said, timing is the key. Here's the link to the case study http://raleighwx.ame...om/raleigh.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 What I like, unlike December, is that artic air will be around if a large storm roars up the coast. The Euro kicks out its piece of energy in the SW that it had been hanging on to...We'll see what 12z does. That seemed to be locking the cold out of the East during subsequent time frimes. The CPC's AO teleconnection site has been a mess, so it's tough for me to tell where it's heading. To me, it is beginning to look like a progressively colder pattern where December looked like a progressively warm pattern. We are heading in the right direction w/ the best two months of winter to spare. May even be a spring storm in the cards this year w/ the cold staying at the pole for so long. good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Hopefully the NAO will go negative and stay negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 What I like, unlike December, is that artic air will be around if a large storm roars up the coast. The Euro kicks out its piece of energy in the SW that it had been hanging on to...We'll see what 12z does. That seemed to be locking the cold out of the East during subsequent time frimes. The CPC's AO teleconnection site has been a mess, so it's tough for me to tell where it's heading. To me, it is beginning to look like a progressively colder pattern where December looked like a progressively warm pattern. We are heading in the right direction w/ the best two months of winter to spare. May even be a spring storm in the cards this year w/ the cold staying at the pole for so long. Agree the table looks to be set way better for Jan than what we just went through. Hopefully we keep the precip train rolling and finally get some oppurtunities to tap into all that cold thats been botteled up. Just need some good timing now. It's always dependant upon timing anyway, so I have no doubt it will work out for us again at some point like it always does most every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 both models have a very active pattern. And a huge storm in or east of Japan, and ridging west Canada at times. The GFS even has a closed high in the north Pacific sometimes which looks like a split flow, with cold in the center and east, but nothing is "sustained". By day 10 the ECMWF has a big 1040 high and very cold coming down, with a good look, but each run has something different. I noticed the cutoff in the Southwest isn't there, instead it moved east. There's plenty to watch and its not boring, but you really can't put your finger on anything solid past 7 days, there's just too much going on. For the first time this year, I'm actually interested and hopeful about our chances. Both models finally have some truly cold air in canada/northern portions of the country for the first time this year (-25c to -35c). Models are chaotic for sure in the long range but Just by the fact that some truly cold air could possibly be tapped, gives me some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 lol something is wrong with the 12z run and it's already showing the last couple of hours of the run. Still looks good. In fact it has a nice little system that gives a good snow for Southern GA. I think we'll like this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 lol something is wrong with the 12z run and it's already showing the last couple of hours of the run. Still looks good. In fact it has a nice little system that gives a good snow for Southern GA. I think we'll like this run. Its done that to me before too. I was clicking next, 30 minutes into the run, and it went all the way to 384. Then I went back and it was all gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Still somewhat skeptical about cold/snow in the SE in January but I do agree that there a few better signs now in the teleconnections for at least some hope. The biggest factor is the general lowering of the jet and the position of the EPAC ridge which may stay closer to the coast- there is also a bit of evidence for the NAO going slightly negative, but it looks to be east-based if it does turn around at all. The next week (outside of the current cold shot) looks dull, but weeks 2-3 have at least a sliver of potential, we shall see. It does look like several cool shots with no real blowtorch, at least not any that will last more than a day or two before the next frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Berlin site finally updated,another good wave forecasted in 5-10 days up there.Zonal winds are gradually decreasing as well so some blocking signs are showing up. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 If the LR is right..which it probably isn't it would be some of the coldest weather to hit the US in awhile. It has a good 80% of the US in freezing temps. At 384 freezing temps are down to San Antonio and the only states dodging the freeze is the southern most part of TX, a good chunk of Cali and the southern parts of AZ, NM and FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 If the LR is right..which it probably isn't it would be some of the coldest weather to hit the US in awhile. It has a good 80% of the US in freezing temps. At 384 freezing temps are down to San Antonio and the only states dodging the freeze is the southern most part of TX, a good chunk of Cali and the southern parts of AZ, NM and FL. Hawaii too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 If the LR is right..which it probably isn't it would be some of the coldest weather to hit the US in awhile. It has a good 80% of the US in freezing temps. At 384 freezing temps are down to San Antonio and the only states dodging the freeze is the southern most part of TX, a good chunk of Cali and the southern parts of AZ, NM and FL. are you looking at 12z run? What hour is SV out to? Only have 174 on mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Liking where this is headed by next Monday. At 180 HP out in Pacific is getting ready to flex it's muscle EDIT: On second hand, seems that we get continual shots of cold getting pinched off and shoved east. Not bad run, but man there appears to be an expanding area or cold pool that appearsas though it just wants to collapse and come straight down full boar as you flip through the 850mbtslpn panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 are you looking at 12z run? What hour is SV out to? Only have 174 on mine. For some reason SV had 360 - 384 up...still is on mine you could scroll down to the bottom and see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Liking where this is headed by next Monday. At 180 HP out in Pacific is getting ready to flex it's muscle EDIT: On second hand, seems that we get continual shots of cold getting pinched off and shoved east. Not bad run, but man there appears to be an expanding area or cold pool that appearsas though it just wants to collapse and come straight down full boar as you flip through the 850mbtslpn panels. Yea it just never quite makes it until the very end of the run which seems to be the story of the GFS as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 This run has several episodes of cold, so things are progressive. It keeps having big cold outbreaks late in the run, but those should be taken with a grain of salt until they get within 10 days I think. It keeps on with the big west Canada ridge or north of Alaska ridge at that 384 hour panel but has yet to work much closer. The thing to watch next week is the southwest system and where it goes. This run shears out, non-event really, maybe rain ahead of the front. Something to watch though. Then cold, quick warmup, cold, quick warm up, major cold. Let's see how the ensembles look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 it seems like we are back to the way it was a few years ago. there are always things to watch on the models, but as we get closer to the date of the so called event it fades away and then there is another one about a week out we really got spoiled the last two years didnt we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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