NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Next weekend warmup is 2 days max in NC, then GFS says back to january. Close call, MA will love this run http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp12192.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 GFS has a great look at 180. Interesting to see how it turns out. yeah, that is an interesting solution. I have to wonder if the GFS is too fast with this system, but time will tell. Although it did not do it this run, it looked like there was some possibility of a H5 low closing off in the SE. Again, time will tell. Looks like a cold set-up at 240,too. Would be nice to see the Euro climb aboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Pattern on the 0z GFS is...not warm. Huge trough developing around day 10. edit: -30 at the US border(N. Dakota) at 324hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 GFS has a great look at 180. Interesting to see how it turns out. It sure is pretty intersting. after next weekends warmup, the wave diving into the west partially splits, but never forms a big cutoff, instead it rides along the boundary coming east and sharpens up in the Southeast, so its a close call for snow somewhere north or west of the boundary. And immediately afterward the waves drop due south from Canada, much like the 12z run, arctic express into the US, now before day 10. Atleast the beginning stages are before 240 hours, then several waves of cold come down with quick hitting precip events and a strong east Pacific ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 There's another storm depicted later on around the 13th by 276. Looks like tonight's 0z going well as far as showing something to keep watch on in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 the GFS has the mother load of cold air dropping into the U.S. in the longer longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 it still waits to build the big Alaska ridge/block at 360 to 384, but maintains a lot of western ridging before then, so the US has bouts of cold air several times, with precip events, so its basically nothing like ECMWF with the intrusions of cold. Model war continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I am in the beginning staging of getting excited..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 It sure is pretty intersting. after next weekends warmup, the wave diving into the west partially splits, but never forms a big cutoff, instead it rides along the boundary coming east and sharpens up in the Southeast, so its a close call for snow somewhere north or west of the boundary. And immediately afterward the waves drop due south from Canada, much like the 12z run, arctic express into the US, now before day 10. Atleast the beginning stages are before 240 hours, then several waves of cold come down with quick hitting precip events and a strong east Pacific ridge. The 12z euro hung back the energy in the southwest and eventually develops a multi contour cut off that does move east by 240. You would think the GFS is probably handling this better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 The 12z euro hung back the energy in the southwest and eventually develops a multi contour cut off that does move east by 240. You would think the GFS is probably handling this better. There's no telling, since we've had a few troughs cutoff there. The CMC also had a trough that nearly split there, and was left with a pos. tilt trough that was about sheared. It could go either way. Hopefully the GFS is handling this right, and other things, its a much more typical Winter pattern overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 really starting to sence the pattern change..tonights 0z is exactly what you want @ this point. Thanks to foothills Nc for all the work you do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Ya everybody is full of knowledge and information. Thanks for all the great analysis! Hopefully the GFS is on to something because this pattern would continue the same as the late fall pattern as being very active but with much colder are doused into the forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 This run of the 0z GFS would fit the idea of what some of us are thinking would be possible as a pattern as we continue to progress throughout the month. Plenty of cold shots with a system or two timing themselves correctly to bring potential wintry precipitation for portions of the Southeast. Definitely not a boring look and I'm getting a bit more excited about this. Still have a long way to go but as long we keep seeing similar solutions, I believe fun and games could be in our future. Who knows where it will occur, when, and who sees what falling out of the sky but this certainly leaves us with a few opportunities for something to pop up for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I still like the idea us in mid-late January being in the full effects of a pattern change. Until then, things are going to be moving in that direction. As others have said though lets hope the change works for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 There's another storm depicted later on around the 13th by 276. Looks like tonight's 0z going well as far as showing something to keep watch on in future runs. Just curious were do you get these maps and are they available to the public? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Just curious were do you get these maps and are they available to the public? Here's the link to Allan's model page. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html Or just go to the top of the page where it says models and scroll down to Allan Huffmans model page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Just curious were do you get these maps and are they available to the public? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 http://raleighwx.ame...com/models.html Ah thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Just curious were do you get these maps and are they available to the public? Was going to reply but I see that rduwx and Mariettawx gotcha covered so my apologies for the late response. I use those more often than the other sites out there recently. Before the change was made to the Model Analysis website, I went there due to the simplicity of accessing the images. You can still get the same information from Allan's site thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 FWIW..HR192 0Z GFS ENS. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zf192.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 FWIW..HR192 0Z GFS ENS. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zf192.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Could not get 186 to load, here is hr 204...would be epic for entire SE/MID-ATL/NE if verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Looks like the 0z Euro stills wants to try to develop a cut-off a week from now. Waiting see how it handles it. EDIT: 192 shows a 546 cut-off in MS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 The 0z euro has a closed 500 low during hr 186 and hr 192 but ends up cutting west of the apps. Overall we're on the warm side of the low so temps aren't even close. The good thing is the gfs and euro are both showing a storm during this timeframe but the bad thing is they handle it completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Looks like the 0z Euro stills wants to try to develop a cut-off a week from now. Waiting see how it handles it. I'm hung up at 144...dont know if it's just really slow or the site I use is having issues? 0z CMC seems to want to follow the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 The 0z euro has a closed 500 low during hr 186 and hr 192 but ends up cutting west of the apps. Overall we're on the warm side of the low so temps aren't even close. The good thing is the gfs and euro are both showing a storm during this timeframe but the bad thing is they handle it completely different. Night and day it seems to be between it and the GFS. I'd be more excited if it were a little further south than where it has the system cutting off but at least something is there that's worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Night and day it seems to be between it and the GFS. I'd be more excited if it were a little further south than where it has the system cutting off but at least something is there that's worth watching. That's right. The good thing is both are showing something during that time. That's about all we can ask for this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Opens it back up in the 24 hours between my two posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I'm hung up at 144...dont know if it's just really slow or the site I use is having issues? 0z CMC seems to want to follow the GFS I'm using instantweathermaps.com to get the Euro images. Go there but you have to save it and then upload to a site like tinypic. Can't hotlink the images. You should be getting the latest images like I am if you refresh the page and click next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.