Poimen Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I don't like the look of the EURO in the long range at all. I won't jump on the cold train until it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I don't like the look of the EURO in the long range at all. I won't jump on the cold train until it does. That's probably a wise decision. Besides, I'm sure someone will soon talk about how the Euro ensembles or the weeklies or the hourlies or the experimental quantum super global will show blazingly scorching temps throughout the rest of our lifetimes. We'll know in a few days if the GFS is out to lunch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 If we had been riding a cold pattern for quite some time and I saw the GFS begin warming the pattern in the long range, I would know the game was up. The GFS tries to pop a -NAO and not a transient one for once. The 12z Euro brings a blizzard through the plains at 240. My guess, is that the pattern goes cold after that storm wherever it may go. The Euro storm does fit the pattern for the winter, but has issues w/ holding back to much energy as discussed earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Yeah, I think people have different perspectives on that one. I just know that it had 3 straight runs of basically a once in a lifetime storm here with the surface low bombing out on the SC coast. In the end, there was a good storm to our east, but a major letdown here. I'm southwest of CLT (in Lyman) - we ended up with 3 solid inches of snow from that Christmas storm. It snowed for a while before finally sticking too. No fail here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I'd be nice if the ECMWF Berlin site would update on it's strat forecasts that I look at.It was out last week a while and has been out going on 3 days straight so far.Helps to show warming and possible blocking up across northern latitudes. Model could still be accurate though,we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 That's probably a wise decision. Besides, I'm sure someone will soon talk about how the Euro ensembles or the weeklies or the hourlies or the experimental quantum super global will show blazingly scorching temps throughout the rest of our lifetimes. We'll know in a few days if the GFS is out to lunch.... If we had been riding a cold pattern for quite some time and I saw the GFS begin warming the pattern in the long range, I would know the game was up. The GFS tries to pop a -NAO and not a transient one for once. The 12z Euro brings a blizzard through the plains at 240. My guess, is that the pattern goes cold after that storm wherever it may go. The Euro storm does fit the pattern for the winter, but has issues w/ holding back to much energy as discussed earlier. Great points and I completely agree. Hoping for the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Where will the big battleground be after January 10 thru end of the month? That is our question that needs a solution! A: Over Carolinas into Mid-Atlantic? B: Oklahoma - Missouri - Ohio into the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 For the record, the 18z GFS is warm late in the run w/ cold in the northwest per Bastardi's solution. Still looks like the artic boundary will drop far enough south for a period of time to allow for possible winter weather in the upper south on the northern fringe of suppressed systems. Very blocky pattern still showing. I still think it will turn considerably cold in mid-late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 For the record, the 18z GFS is warm late in the run w/ cold in the northwest per Bastardi's solution. Still looks like the artic boundary will drop far enough south for a period of time to allow for possible winter weather in the upper south on the northern fringe of suppressed systems. Very blocky pattern still showing. I still think it will turn considerably cold in mid-late January. I think this is going to be yet another extreme solution. The 12z had an extreme -AO at the end of the run, this run has a +AO at the end of the run and an extreme -PNA. Pumps the SE ridge up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 this is the way things go when looking at all 4 runs of the GFS. This one drops the huge trough in the west late, so that builds a big southeast ridge. It all depends on some factors like where the ridging near Alaska occurs and how eastern Canada looks. I noticed central and western Europe have a massive heat ridge on both models, its rather odd to see that so strong there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I think this is going to be yet another extreme solution. The 12z had an extreme -AO at the end of the run, this run has a +AO at the end of the run and an extreme -PNA. Pumps the SE ridge up. Let's hope that feature doesn't lock in - I don't think it will. The GFS is flirting w/ a cold outbreak on previous runs. I think all of the waffling by the models is because a significant pattern change is approaching w/ some pretty extreme cold air involved. I can see a battle line being drawn from the panhandle of Texas to Cleveland...Then sagging south mid-late January into the upper-mid South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 this is the way things go when looking at all 4 runs of the GFS. This one drops the huge trough in the west late, so that builds a big southeast ridge. It all depends on some factors like where the ridging near Alaska occurs and how eastern Canada looks. I noticed central and western Europe have a massive heat ridge on both models, its rather odd to see that so strong there. Any clues as to what sensible weather holds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I don't want to go on a tangent here but so what? That's what makes you a parent. So be a parent. Your kid will see much much worse on the internet than they will ever see on this board. Lot's of expressions are used like that. We shouldn't have to censor ourselves because you don't know how/want to parent. You gotta a lot of nerve, little fella. You try and make me out to be the bad guy here when some immature person makes a "cream in their pants" reference? I hope it never snows in your back yard again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 ^ ^ ^ ------- OK folks - back on topic, please. 18z GFS looks to go zonal long range. Model waffle, or does this upcoming cold shot become the short substance of our winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Any clues as to what sensible weather holds? I don't know, but I think the GFS is telling us that a big change is about to happen. We might not like it though, unless the AO and NAO cooperate. I won't really guess just yet. Its very possible the cold dumps totally into the west, and a ridge is in the heartland or southeast, with more troughing and cold in New England...I've seen that quite a few times. But also, the pattern may totally break down and flip, and hold that way for the remainder of the winter into early March. That idea has some merit just by virtue of the fact that many times a weather pattern wears itself out, and the shoe drops the other way. December 1989/January 1990 was that way, to the extreme. A cold pattern in the US broke down and the west went cold, warm and dry in the East. Last Winter was similar after the long 6 to 8 weeks of blocking in Greenland and supressed flow, then the pattern switched abruptly in February. You never know though, since patterns can hold for long times. The Winter of 95-96 was about the only one I can think of that was wall to wall cold if I recall, that began in Fall and lasted into Spring. I'm sure someone can bring examples of the opposite with warmth from Nov til March as well. But usually, patterns break after a few months, sometimes they coincide with new seasons, sometimes not. We still have enough change-ups in this pattern so that its possible anything can happen, and we can still get cold. We have yet to see cold plus wet though, but the GFS has had a few runs and CMC toward later next week as the first shot. Of course Ecmwf has nothing like that (but I think it did yesterdays run).We'll turn warm this weekend but after that it depends on what happens out west with the possible cutoff and any ridging in western Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 FoothillsNC - Without answering my post (#1484) you answered my question. Thanks! Let's just pray/hope that, like a candle, whatever little flicker of winter we've had so far catches on and lights up! Personally, I'd like to thank you for your ongoing updates and insights; for one, I really enjoy the oftentimes when you post a graphic/model to show what you are referring to. Happy New Year and lets just pray/hope ... Best Regards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 You gotta a lot of nerve, little fella. You try and make me out to be the bad guy here when some immature person makes a "cream in their pants" reference? I hope it never snows in your back yard again. Not gonna hurt me, used to it for a few years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I wouldn't sweat the GFS 18z Operational departure in regard to the AO going back positive. It appears it's ensembles held the course. As we ride the GFS train into the LR hopefully the operational just had a hiccup at 18z, otherwise it has been very consistent for the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 FoothillsNC - Without answering my post (#1484) you answered my question. Thanks! Let's just pray/hope that, like a candle, whatever little flicker of winter we've had so far catches on and lights up! Personally, I'd like to thank you for your ongoing updates and insights; for one, I really enjoy the oftentimes when you post a graphic/model to show what you are referring to. Happy New Year and lets just pray/hope ... Best Regards. Thanks. No problem, atleast theres plenty to talk about. I wouldn't sweat the GFS 18z Operational departure in regard to the AO going back positive. It appears it's ensembles held the course. As we ride the GFS train into the LR hopefully the operational just had a hiccup at 18z, otherwise it has been very consistent for the moment. Yeah I think there's been plenty of hints overall that a big change in the pattern is coming atleast in Ak. More runs than not had that look. Looks like it retrogrades eventually which would shake things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Thanks. No problem, atleast theres plenty to talk about. Yeah I think there's been plenty of hints overall that a big change in the pattern is coming atleast in Ak. More runs than not had that look. Looks like it retrogrades eventually which would shake things up. I sure hope so, because I'm tired of looking at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I wouldn't sweat the GFS 18z Operational departure in regard to the AO going back positive. It appears it's ensembles held the course. As we ride the GFS train into the LR hopefully the operational just had a hiccup at 18z, otherwise it has been very consistent for the moment. The 18z GFS ENS mean doesn't look bad...though it would seem the members are all over the place just looking at spaghetti charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I sure hope so, because I'm tired of looking at it and I bet Alaskans are ready to see it go away. Its been crazy cold and stormy there for the last 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Good discussion. I'm afraid after this quick bout of cold, the cold is headed to the NW and Central US leaving us back in the warm pattern. I don't want to see it play out that way, but once the GFS moves over to the Euro camp, you have to face it, we're not gonna see a good January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Good discussion. I'm afraid after this quick bout of cold, the cold is headed to the NW and Central US leaving us back in the warm pattern. I don't want to see it play out that way, but once the GFS moves over to the Euro camp, you have to face it, we're not gonna see a good January. I really want some snow, but I'll take the warm and dry over cold and dry any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 The PSD Ensemble has a strong signal for building a tall ridge in the extended, but it's west of Alaska. On the Atlantic side, the ensemble brings the NAO to around neutral in the extended. Also, there's more ridging nosing in on the other side of the pole. So, this shows a definite increase in high latitude blocking, but a ridge west of Alaska would not be a favorable location for cold in the SE without a strong -NAO signal. The negative anomalies on the map below in the east eventually move out as you roll this forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 The PSD Ensemble has a strong signal for building a tall ridge in the extended, but it's west of Alaska. On the Atlantic side, the ensemble brings the NAO to around neutral in the extended. Also, there's more ridging nosing in on the other side of the pole. So, this shows a definite increase in high latitude blocking, but a ridge west of Alaska would not be a favorable location for cold in the SE without a strong -NAO signal. The negative anomalies on the map below in the east eventually move out as you roll this forward. Oh well .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Good discussion. I'm afraid after this quick bout of cold, the cold is headed to the NW and Central US leaving us back in the warm pattern. I don't want to see it play out that way, but once the GFS moves over to the Euro camp, you have to face it, we're not gonna see a good January. For NC, it's not that quick . Most models keep the tarheel state at or below 0 at 850 for a good 4 days. Thats not shabby. And the GFS has yet to "move to Euro camp" esp. since its only run out to 240 hours. If the past 11 months are any indication, then it wouldn't be the GFS doing any moving. But who knows we may be entering the time when the models reverse roles. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 GFS has a great look at 180. Interesting to see how it turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Still looks interesting around the 10th at 192 with the next storm. No snow accumulation but it's awfully close to something. EDIT: There's up to a half inch indicated across the southern piedmont of NC and a portion of Upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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