BullCityWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Zomg where's the pattern change on the 12z gfs?!?!?!?!?!?!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The 12z GFS AO is off the charts positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The 12z GFS AO is off the charts positive. Ensembles don't look too bad. AO is still positive but not off the charts, NAO is neutral, PNA goes positive. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/teleconnections.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Ensembles don't look too bad. AO is still positive but not off the charts, NAO is neutral, PNA goes positive. http://raleighwx.ame...onnections.html The ensembles are rarely going to be off the charts anything because of the nature of ensembles, especially at long ranges. Just take a look at the spaghetti charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Zomg where's the pattern change on the 12z gfs?!?!?!?!?!?!!! just beyond the frame of 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Looks like wet times ahead for areas west of the Apps. East will get some rain with the midweek front, then we have to watch where the next strong upper low carves out. It's pretty wild to still be getting all these strong cutoffs around the hemisphere. Eventually a big snow will result from one of them, but the next one looks a little warm to deliver it in Ok/Ks/Mo region but its still worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Looks like wet times ahead for areas west of the Apps. East will get some rain with the midweek front, then we have to watch where the next strong upper low carves out. It's pretty wild to still be getting all these strong cutoffs around the hemisphere. Eventually a big snow will result from one of them, but the next one looks a little warm to deliver it in Ok/Ks/Mo region but its still worth watching. just bought another snow plow. So bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 just bought another snow plow. So bring it on You may get to use it in January? And that's just a maybe! I hope you can use it in December but way it looks now forget it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 You may get to use it in January? And that's just a maybe! I hope you can use it in December but way it looks now forget it..... not according to your hero! If I don't I don't not going to lose sleep over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Wes(usedtobe) is very pessimistic about a pattern change well into the month of December: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29714-negative-nao-coming/page__view__findpost__p__1133538 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 GFS uses this storm to change the pattern . Its so massive it has a huge influence on the flow . Brings down colder air, but not terribly cold ...but its a definitely flow changer. Incredibly cold air is developed in central to north Canada, in fact the coldest in the hemisphere is on our side. And the GFS has atleast a weak PNA and some ridging in northern Greenland. Don't know if any of its right, esp. farther out, but I'm seeing wintry precip threats in December somewhere pretty far south once we get this behometh over with (assuming this large cutoff comes to pass)....no shortage of s/w in the flow...supressed flow could be coming (sort of split in the flow) Still a little antsy on it, but I do lean more GFS than ECMWF lately, as it hasn't flip-flopped as much as its rival and has sniffed out big events all year long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Wes(usedtobe) is very pessimistic about a pattern change well into the month of December: http://www.americanw...ost__p__1133538 Yeah, the -AO , the strong Alaskan vortex and the cold strat. are the villians. I've saw this set up several times in my long lifetime and it is rather hard to displace when you have enough "drivers" aiding it. A couple of things I'm wondering about and would like to know what maybe Wes, HM, etc; would give an opinion on that may have a chance over riding/altering the current pattern drivers.. and that being what Robert has been harping on; the abundant systems/lp's we continue to see and whether or noy they may pop either a eastern canadian PV or a 50-50 that would pump up a Greenland block. The waters are favorable in the N.Atlantic, so this would seem possible to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Another argument against polar pig pattern change is that this weekend system is not associated with a full-latitude trough. It is cut off from the polar jet on the GFS. The European has only a short wave trough, far from full-latitude. Either way, no polar pig pattern changer in the cards. That being said, I do believe the Southeast is already in a new 2-3 week wetter pattern starting last week. Systems that can generate cold air might dust the Apps above 3,000 FT. Otherwise continue fall. Look for mild days right ahead of each system followed by brief cold shots. No delivery mechanism for anything more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The Euro weeklies which now come out twice a week still show a very warm pattern for the first half to two thirds of December and this is amplified by the monthlies which came out last week and advertise a very warm winter across the Eastern US....Obviously not everyone wants to hear this, but when you look at the overall pattern as well as the other factors including the increase in solar activity and QBO issues, you have to start considering the less than 25% case of the warm weak La Nina scenario as a good probability this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The Euro weeklies which now come out twice a week still show a very warm pattern for the first half to two thirds of December and this is amplified by the monthlies which came out last week and advertise a very warm winter across the Eastern US....Obviously not everyone wants to hear this, but when you look at the overall pattern as well as the other factors including the increase in solar activity and QBO issues, you have to start considering the less than 25% case of the warm weak La Nina scenario as a good probability this winter. Appreciate the Euro weeklies/monthlies reports in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The Euro weeklies which now come out twice a week still show a very warm pattern for the first half to two thirds of December and this is amplified by the monthlies which came out last week and advertise a very warm winter across the Eastern US....Obviously not everyone wants to hear this, but when you look at the overall pattern as well as the other factors including the increase in solar activity and QBO issues, you have to start considering the less than 25% case of the warm weak La Nina scenario as a good probability this winter. Thanks, def. a downer but maybe we can pull out a miracle and beat the odds. By the way I never saw what the big deal was. Now if they are saying this by the end of December going into January it might be time to check the cliff edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The Euro weeklies which now come out twice a week still show a very warm pattern for the first half to two thirds of December and this is amplified by the monthlies which came out last week and advertise a very warm winter across the Eastern US....Obviously not everyone wants to hear this, but when you look at the overall pattern as well as the other factors including the increase in solar activity and QBO issues, you have to start considering the less than 25% case of the warm weak La Nina scenario as a good probability this winter. Thanks but booo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The Euro weeklies which now come out twice a week still show a very warm pattern for the first half to two thirds of December and this is amplified by the monthlies which came out last week and advertise a very warm winter across the Eastern US....Obviously not everyone wants to hear this, but when you look at the overall pattern as well as the other factors including the increase in solar activity and QBO issues, you have to start considering the less than 25% case of the warm weak La Nina scenario as a good probability this winter. . ensembles back you up(short term). If this cold shot next week even occurs, it's going to be mighty transitory in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I'll take a few shots at warm, followed by potential snow, followed by warm this winter. I love snow, but it's nice to be able to get out and do things occasionally too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Hey, sorry to invade your thread, but has anyone started talking about possible Winter weather in the mid South about Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Hey, sorry to invade your thread, but has anyone started talking about possible Winter weather in the mid South about Monday? Hey Ed.. Yep we have been, some are getting pumped others are not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 It's also funny how people are so happy to be rude and condescending to other people on a message board but wouldn't likely dare make those kinds of comments in person. It's unnecessary and quite cowardly, actually. The long range GFS is mostly junk wrt specifics, but I have seen it time and again point to a pattern change in the 10-15 day time frame that eventually comes to pass. It usually way too fast, but if a big daddy -NAO starts showing up consistently in the long range, it's not stupid to pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 It's also funny how people are so happy to be rude and condescending to other people on a message board but wouldn't likely dare make those kinds of comments in person. It's unnecessary and quite cowardly, actually. I do and have made those kinds of comments in person. The long range GFS is mostly junk wrt specifics, but I have seen it time and again point to a pattern change in the 10-15 day time frame that eventually comes to pass. It usually way too fast, but if a big daddy -NAO starts showing up consistently in the long range, it's not stupid to pay attention. So it's just luck, not any type of correct forecasting. If the GFS frequently shows cold and a pattern change, and most winters feature at least one period of cold, then the GFS will always be "right" at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 I do and have made those kinds of comments in person. So it's just luck, not any type of correct forecasting. If the GFS frequently shows cold and a pattern change, and most winters feature at least one period of cold, then the GFS will always be "right" at some point. Why did you assume I was referring to you? I believe you missed the point again. Where did anyone say the GFS frequently shows cold all of the time? Let's try again. If it shows stationary GOA vortex, a screaming Pac Jet and a ragingly +NAO for weeks and then starts showing the GOA vortex moving out, a PNA ridge pumping up and a descending NAO for several runs in a row, discussing the potential of a pattern change should not be the egregiously absurd, outlandishly stupid, wildly asinine thing you're trying to make it sound like. If you don't like the discussion, why even bother commenting on it other than solely trying to make someone feel stupid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Why did you assume I was referring to you? I believe you missed the point again. Where did anyone say the GFS frequently shows cold all of the time? Let's try again. If it shows stationary GOA vortex, a screaming Pac Jet and a ragingly +NAO for weeks and then starts showing the GOA vortex moving out, a PNA ridge pumping up and a descending NAO for several runs in a row, discussing the potential of a pattern change should not be the egregiously absurd, outlandishly stupid, wildly asinine thing you're trying to make it sound like. If you don't like the discussion, why even bother commenting on it other than solely trying to make someone feel stupid? It's been showing this kind of change for a week now and it keeps getting pushed back and nerfed. In the winter time, the GFS is always going to try to show some sort of pattern change because it will tend to trend towards climo, which features a trough in the east and a ridge in the west. It's not at all exciting that the 10+ day GFS or Euro show a different pattern. They show a new one each day and they are nearly invariably wrong about it. Why are you trying to defend people who take these things to be legitimate? Why do you do it when other factors argue against a pattern change any time soon? Go look in HM's threads in the main weather forum. Read Wes's posts. None of them support a pattern change before mid-December and many argue for January before we even get hints of a change. These models are unlikely to be right against the plethora of factors (La Nina, SSTAs, MJO, etc.) that argue against a pattern change. So I tell you this: you are not making a reasonable claim by saying that the models might be sniffing out a pattern change. The GFS beyond 7 days is crap. Get over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 the NCEP ensemble mean has the southern and esp. Southeast region staying below normal 850 temps through the run except the next couple of days. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_nhbg_animation.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 It's also funny how people are so happy to be rude and condescending to other people on a message board but wouldn't likely dare make those kinds of comments in person. It's unnecessary and quite cowardly, actually. The long range GFS is mostly junk wrt specifics, but I have seen it time and again point to a pattern change in the 10-15 day time frame that eventually comes to pass. It usually way too fast, but if a big daddy -NAO starts showing up consistently in the long range, it's not stupid to pay attention. Any time you would like to meet and discuss this topic in person....I am here in Chattanooga...come on down! I would be happy give this opinion directly to your face. Many around here know who I am. Whoever you are...the cowardly comment is just completely out of bounds... It is not a personal assault to tell the truth about something. I did not insult CAD specifically. Only YOU make YOU feel stupid....I have never made that assertion. Frankly, I would have stayed out of this thread if some posters including the moderator had not started in on Widre because he was posting the reality of the situation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Any time you would like to meet and discuss this topic in person....I am here in Chattanooga...come on down! I would be happy give this opinion directly to your face. Many around here know who I am. Whoever you are...the cowardly comment is just completely out of bounds... It is not a personal assault to tell the truth about something. I did not insult CAD specifically. Only YOU make YOU feel stupid....I have never made that assertion. Frankly, I would have stayed out of this thread if some posters including the moderator had not started in on Widre because he was posting the reality of the situation... You better watch it Mr Bobbie, I will have to give you a timeout if this conduct continues You are right of course, nothing you said was out of bounds in any way and cold rain's comments made me lol. Funny how sometimes trying to help someone on this topic can make you catch hell if it's not what they want to hear. Fact is anyone who is not familiar with you should listen to you because you know what the hell you are talking about. In other news, it still sucks monkey poo not seeing you with the black tag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 the NCEP ensemble mean has the southern and esp. Southeast region staying below normal 850 temps through the run except the next couple of days. http://www.esrl.noaa..._animation.html Noticed that the NAO is forecast again today by CPC to go negative in the long range. The AO takes a legitimate look at neutral. That said, those teleconnections have been less than dependable. HM has a good discussion about the Rossby Wave Train and its impact on East Coast weather. I can understand about 65% of it, but from what I gather, the MJO is still making a mess out of our potential for winter weather - parahphrased from ORH_wxman lol. What will be interesting is if the NAO can go negative and hold. When animating the maps of the Euro and GFS, the pattern begins to look like one where the cold drops into the plains and slides east repeatedly. It's not like the cold really locks in, but the repetition of cold shots does appear to be what the "new" pattern is(or maybe transitional). Honesty, I'm a bit surprised to see it. I, like you, will be very interested to see which model (GFS vs Euro) will take over as the winter progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Any time you would like to meet and discuss this topic in person....I am here in Chattanooga...come on down! I would be happy give this opinion directly to your face. Many around here know who I am. Whoever you are...the cowardly comment is just completely out of bounds... It is not a personal assault to tell the truth about something. I did not insult CAD specifically. Only YOU make YOU feel stupid....I have never made that assertion. Frankly, I would have stayed out of this thread if some posters including the moderator had not started in on Widre because he was posting the reality of the situation... Bob, I wasn't referring to you at all. People are going to disagree frequently on these boards. You brought up a valid disagreement, and we exchanged comments about it. In fact, I agree with about everything you said in you post above. But surely we can all agree that you can say somebody is wrong in their conclusion without calling them an idiot. Right? I mean do people in real life get in conversations with random people and then the first time they disagree with them the call them a name? Why do that behind the cloak of the keyboard then? I'll go to the Banter thread to discuss more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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