burgertime Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Come on dude.... "cream their pants"? My kids read this board sometimes. I don't want to go on a tangent here but so what? That's what makes you a parent. So be a parent. Your kid will see much much worse on the internet than they will ever see on this board. Lot's of expressions are used like that. We shouldn't have to censor ourselves because you don't know how/want to parent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The 384 storm will happen, just like that euro storm is going to tomorrow Although it is good to see anyhow! I want get excited until it's within 5 days and a few consistent runs at that time frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Hey at least the models are active for something. Also for the expression used above as parent i understand were he is coming from but on the other hand it seems like watching an everyday commercial or tv is just as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 This guy made a forecast back in November talking about the 11-14th of January storm. He also nailed the warmth and cold blast we are about to experience he talked about in this video. Maybe just a coincident though? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obLq_klpM1w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 This guy made a forecast back in November talking about the 11-14th of January storm. He also nailed the warmth and cold blast we are about to experience he talked about in this video. Maybe just a coincident though? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obLq_klpM1w Thanks for the video! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Interesting video for sure. Fits the possible GFS storm for the Jan 11-14th time frame. Will be curious to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The 384 would make any winter lover cream their pants. Probably the most major fantasy storm I've seen yet. Snow weenies beware of clicking: http://raleighwx.ame...zgfssnow384.gif It's just good to see these blizzard fantasy storms out in the LR which is sad. Seems last year around Thanksgiving every GFS run had these. Finally a fantasy storm Happy New Year from Goofy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Happy new year guys! Quick note, we all agree that the GFS has been lacking the LR fantacy storm right? Infact this is the first significant winter storm I have seen show up in the LR. All prior seasons, every run of the GFS, there has been a "storm of the century' out past hr240 and yet this is the first this year...has the GFS really been that bad? Or spot on so far, cause I have yet to see a fantacy storm until 0z and have yet to see a flake of snow imby this season...may be on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 12z GFS very similar to the look from the 00z Euro from last night.... Uploaded with ImageShack.us Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 12z GFS very similar to the look from the 00z Euro from last night.... Uploaded with ImageShack.us Uploaded with ImageShack.us That's interesting that both the GFS and Euro are showing th same set-up at that time frame over a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 12z GFS still looking good after 1/8. It continues its trend of cooling off the eastern 2/3 of the US. Looks to me like the 0z Euro moved ever so slightly towards the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I will take this look right here ALL DAY LONG. The GFS has been consistent for several runs now of showing colder temps in the longer range. If this type of setup verifies, we'll be in business. (Edited to include the correct map. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 According to the indices here: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zgfsindices.html 12z GFS flips to a -AO as early as Jan 5th and keeps it there through the period. I don't think it'll be that extreme though. The important thing is that Alaskan vortex is still going away in the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 According to the indices here: http://raleighwx.ame...gfsindices.html 12z GFS flips to a -AO as early as Jan 5th and keeps it there through the period. I don't think it'll be that extreme though. The important thing is that Alaskan vortex is still going away in the GFS. I think its safe to say this run of the GFS is the big winner so far for cold + precip. Its the best look for both in the South. Now its bringing the western/Alaska ridging in view at 240 hour, so we're inching closer. From there, it goes all out and pulls in high lat blocking all 3 different areas in the Northern Hemisphere that consolidates late in the run at the North Polar region. Big time Winner for the US to turn severely cold and stormy....supressed flow, etc. The best news is that it has been adamant on this for nearly a week on the 360 to 384 hour panels and now its worked its way up to 240 hours, so it's not backing down. So there's a model war between the big 2 right now, who knows how it goes yet. If the GFS is right at 5H beginning at day 10, the cold starts pushing south by day 11 into the US and sprawls well south and east, meanwhile Pacific systems crawl along the southern boundary with snow, ice, rain chances for a huge region which can be fine tuned later. Its' a dreamy run and no longer that far out in time for the changes to commence, they begin actually by day 5 when the Alaskan vortex , the Polar Vortex and other features in the northern Hemisphere begin retrograding, and from that point on, things start lining up and the pattern change is underway. So that we end up with the opposite of whats currently going on, as far as height anomalies. Here's some images to describe the process on GFS lately. Red shaded ellipse is where the model wants build the strong ridging and possible developing closed high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Robert, I approve of this message I don't like that the gfs can't find any rain for a week, and just a spotty chance today, but I'll trade that for the 18 degree low Tues night. And, anyway, with suppressed moisture there is always a chance for a change in a few days. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I'm beginning to feel more confident that this month holds as much promise as we could have hoped for back in December. The forecasted evolution of this pattern looks hopeful for better chances of the cold and precipitation clashing instead of the usual antics of our weather during winter. Perhaps it will translate into keeping watch of plenty of systems that are worth tracking as continue to progress through the rest of this month and beyond. If there were a time to expect a shot of something of interest for our first threat, between now and the later part of the month would be a good period. I'm liking our potential here. http://gwxmanblog.blogspot.com/2012/01/warm-day-shaping-up-then-bitter-cold.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 King Euro out and running...upper low over the 4 Corners at 192...a bit warmer with the 850's over our region at the same time period but the critical values are heading towards us, will be interesting to see on the next frames... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 King Euro out and running...upper low over the 4 Corners at 192...a bit warmer with the 850's over our region at the same time period but the critical values are heading towards us, will be interesting to see on the next frames... Isn't it a bias of the EURO to hold back too much energy in the southwest? Just sayin... So even if it doesn't turn out great, I would not be discouraged... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Isn't it a bias of the EURO to hold back too much energy in the southwest? Just sayin... So even if it doesn't turn out great, I would not be discouraged... No doubt...that is the Euro's biggest bias. That said, this run still has the players on the table in a relative sense. 216 still has not updated on RaleighWx's site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Uploaded with ImageShack.us Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 it didn't look that much like GFS, except both have the southwest system, but GFS has a colder look overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Models have been having trouble with what happens with that storm from about 168-216 the last few runs including the Euro. It has shown a 'Lakes cutter', a suppressed solution, and now it looks like it's back to a 'Lakes cutter' type of system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Uploaded with ImageShack.us Uploaded with ImageShack.us That's about how I figured this run would end up once it started its bias of holding the energy back...but hey, at least we have a couple runs showing a storm...Foothills philosophy all year has been that someone will be lucky once we get toward the climo dead of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I'm beginning to feel more confident that this month holds as much promise as we could have hoped for back in December. The forecasted evolution of this pattern looks hopeful for better chances of the cold and precipitation clashing instead of the usual antics of our weather during winter. Perhaps it will translate into keeping watch of plenty of systems that are worth tracking as continue to progress through the rest of this month and beyond. If there were a time to expect a shot of something of interest for our first threat, between now and the later part of the month would be a good period. I'm liking our potential here. http://gwxmanblog.bl...itter-cold.html Visited your blog. I enjoyed the read. Good thoughts; I pretty much agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 So there's a model war between the big 2 right now, who knows how it goes yet. Indeed, it is a model war in the extended as the Euro doesn't have the Alaska ridge at 240 and much weaker high latitude blocking on the other side of the pole. I'm ready for the GFS to kick the Euro's a-bomb as I'm still fuming over the Euro's colossal fail here with last year's Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I'm still fuming over the Euro's colossal fail here with last year's Christmas storm. wait , thats the one it got right from days out? Maybe I misread what you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 12z Canadian. A little warm but pretty close.. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Isn't it a bias of the EURO to hold back too much energy in the southwest? Just sayin... So even if it doesn't turn out great, I would not be discouraged... It is a huge bias of the Euro and it makes it very difficult for it to sniff-out pattern changes when things turn cold in the East. On the other hand, the GFS has a tendency to dig that eastern trough a bit too much. Now, sometimes that energy is rightfully held back by the Euro - that does actually happen from time to time. I'm going w/ the GFS and started feeling that way a few days back and feel more strongly today. The Euro is better and I'm basically putting my money on the horse that is not the fastest. It consistently had the cold in the right place last winter. It has also placed the cold in the right place for much of this winter though it has had a slight bias for Eastern cold that is erroneous in my opinion. To me, it looks like the models are getting ready to flip cold. I could easily be wrong so take it for what its worth. Say what you want, but the birds have been eating through food in my feeders like crazy...They generally do that right before the weather changes. Could just be it is getting cold next week for a couple of days. When I go fishing birds can tell you a lot about where fish are and about what the weather is going to do. I saw several hundred starlings gathering up last week in two different areas. Seems that I see that happen when a storm/or cold is about to hit the East somewhere, though not always here to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 wait , thats the one it got right from days out? Maybe I misread what you said. Yeah, I think people have different perspectives on that one. I just know that it had 3 straight runs of basically a once in a lifetime storm here with the surface low bombing out on the SC coast. In the end, there was a good storm to our east, but a major letdown here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Yeah, I think people have different perspectives on that one. I just know that it had 3 straight runs of basically a once in a lifetime storm here with the surface low bombing out on the SC coast. In the end, there was a good storm to our east, but a major letdown here. overall it was right on the phasing of the streams in the Southeast, but yeah there was a min. on snow right around here, just because of a few things but overall it was really good on that setup from about 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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