FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 the thing about the Euro lately is that it mishandles something about 5 or 7 days out, which greatly causes an error. I already see around 168 hours when the next s/w is coming ashore the west or northwest coast how the models use that to either make it warm in the SE(ecmwf) or bring back another cold shot (gfs). Many times, the Ecmwf will fold to the GFS , atleast its done that numerous times this Spring, Summer and Fall. Lately we've been pretty warm though, so the pattern is still warm despite any brief cool downs, esp. December. But that may be changing soon, I tend to like the GFS sticking to a Alaskan ridge, of course where exactly will mean who gets the cold, who gets the warm. But I wouldn't be surprised to see that eventually pan out. Euro weeklies may show above average and still be right, but it doesn't mean that we can't get one super-big hit of either cold or snow. Remember a few days ago when it had this upcoming cold shot as a deep cutoff and snow in Carolinas/East Coast? I'm sure we'll see the Euro pull more things like this in the very near future. Likely with that system in the Southwest that its probably mis-handling. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Did you actually say this? Not is it only completely out of line, it a clear dismissal of the poor performance and lack of continuity from the GFS and other models lately..I apologize if I am out of line you have to consider source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Was just glancing over 18z nam and noticed @ 78-84 it's wanting to pop the low a good deal further west than previous runs, went over 12z gfs in comparison to 0z and same thing...I doubt there is anything to make of it and am only noting it out of pure snow deprevation...will be interesting to see what 18z gfs does with it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 This looks a little interesting. But with no HP to the north probably want be nothing but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Even if it turns out to be nothing but rain, it will be good news for the eastern part of the state of NC where there has been a rain deficit. After the drought last summers, the farmers in that part of the state need a break this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOD Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 0Z GFS has a small snow for areas on either side of apps in TN/NC around 200 hours and a major LR fantasy display. Whether either of these has a snowballs's chance of verifying, the GFS has not moved toward the Euro with this run. Rain and / or snow seems to be a regular depiction on this GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 dang, 0Z GFS says Happy New Year winter lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 0Z GFS has a small snow for areas on either side of apps in TN/NC around 200 hours and a major LR fantasy display. Whether either of these has a snowballs's chance of verifying, the GFS has not moved toward the Euro with this run. Rain and / or snow seems to be a regular depiction on this GFS. It has a deep eastern system on day 8-9 and then a pretty cold look the rest of the run. All all in all it's pretty good considering what we've been dealing with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The 384 would make any winter lover cream their pants. Probably the most major fantasy storm I've seen yet. Snow weenies beware of clicking: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfssnow384.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The 384 would make any winter lover cream their pants. Probably the most major fantasy storm I've seen yet. Snow weenies beware of clicking: http://raleighwx.ame...zgfssnow384.gif WHOA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The 384 would make any winter lover cream their pants. Probably the most major fantasy storm I've seen yet. Snow weenies beware of clicking: http://raleighwx.ame...zgfssnow384.gif Book it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Split the flow, get so much mo T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Fun to look at but too far out to book a ticket for that ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Whoa, 00z Euro sure does grab your attention at the end of the Run... Uploaded with ImageShack.us Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 10" to 20" totals in Raleigh would be cool. It probably has only a 10% chance of verifying this far out though. But we can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Whoa, 00z Euro sure does grab your attention at the end of the Run...Uploaded with ImageShack.us Uploaded with ImageShack.us Yep IF it's correct and a big IF at the end of the run that ULL it has rolling through TX then down towards New Orleans is a whopper and usually the Euro with the ULL's drive them a little too far south to begin with so it might have a chance of pushing north and just slamming someone. Either way both the GFS and Euro looked way better for the LR . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The 384 would make any winter lover cream their pants. Probably the most major fantasy storm I've seen yet. Snow weenies beware of clicking: http://raleighwx.ame...zgfssnow384.gif It's just good to see these blizzard fantasy storms out in the LR which is sad. Seems last year around Thanksgiving every GFS run had these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 My exact thought also! It's just good to see these blizzard fantasy storms out in the LR which is sad. Seems last year around Thanksgiving every GFS run had these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 It's just good to see these blizzard fantasy storms out in the LR which is sad. Seems last year around Thanksgiving every GFS run had these. Haha! I was about to post the exact same thing! It's good that we can at least see some possibilities finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Whoa, 00z Euro sure does grab your attention at the end of the Run... We just need that northern stream wave to keep trucking along and layeth down the cold ahead of the southern stream cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Well, from what I've gathered off the latest runs Friday the 13th....oh nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 here's a surprise: 0Z GFS/EURO are worlds apart in the medium/long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Long range GFS still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I would not gett to confident with either one especially this far out. Odds just don't look good for us this year. But it is a new year maybe models are better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 It's just good to see these blizzard fantasy storms out in the LR which is sad. Seems last year around Thanksgiving every GFS run had these. Burger, is that 20-25 inches for our area on the GFS 384!! Fantasy for sure, but fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Burger, is that 20-25 inches for our area on the GFS 384!! Fantasy for sure, but fun to look at. lol GFS was a throwback to the DGEX...our luck Wilmington gets 25 while we just get a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Just making sure that the colored area over CLT was 25 inches or was it a hole and dropped rapidly to .25 while all around the snowless triangle got pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The 384 would make any winter lover cream their pants. Come on dude.... "cream their pants"? My kids read this board sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Come on dude.... "cream their pants"? My kids read this board sometimes. He is a good guy, just got excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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