SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I didn't say we wont go above average on temps past 10 days.Of course we will...no sustained anything. If youre looking for hope on salvaging the Winter, take a good look at the cold outbreak for next week, that wasn't there a few days ago. Thats what I've been talking about. In addition to other things I've said in the past couple of months. This is what you said "And really anything is possible beyond 10 days, from a massive arctic outbreak to average. ". Do you think that the cold front will allow the Arctic Oscillation and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation to go negative? I know you mentioned a cut off low event is possible. Do you still think that cut off lows will form after this cold front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I don't believe any of the models are worth banking on. Funny how KING EURO shows snow all get excited then it bust. The last 3 years gfs has been as good as euro but neither one is hitting on much. If a model shows what we want to see then we jump on it only to see its wrong. No model has be accurate much past 72-96 hours and Christmas last year showed us all that's even a stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 This is what you said "And really anything is possible beyond 10 days, from a massive arctic outbreak to average. ". Do you think that the cold front will allow the Arctic Oscillation and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation to go negative? I know you mentioned a cut off low event is possible. Do you still think that cut off lows will form after this cold front? Are you asking if I think a cutoff will form right after this cold front? Doubt that. But will we have cutoff's "well" after next week's cold front? By all means. We will deal with many of them the next 3 months. I don't believe any of the models are worth banking on. Funny how KING EURO shows snow all get excited then it bust. The last 3 years gfs has been as good as euro but neither one is hitting on much. If a model shows what we want to see then we jump on it only to see its wrong. No model has be accurate much past 72-96 hours and Christmas last year showed us all that's even a stretch Very true. The ECMWF isn't run four times a day, so it doesn't have the chance to be viewed as negatively and seen as quite as waffly as the GFS...but waffle it does. Folks are a wee bit antsy it hasn't snowed yet and nothing you can put your finger on yet in the models. Yet I like what I'm seeing down the road later in January. The bottom line is models have to be viewed with caution beyond 5 days b/c things change so much this season. Just when you thought it looked like 2 or 3 weeks of sustained warmth was coming, something pops up to change that. And I think thats where a strong misconception lies. Look back through the thread and view how depressed some were that no cold air was in sight through middle January. Or even through all of January. Yet you and I won't go above freezing next Tuesday. Just goes to show you how things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 At the Greensboro airport(PTI) we are at +4.7 for the month of December. I'll be very shocked for January 2012 if PTI doesn't come in between -2 to +1 (Normal basically) when all is said and done, despite a raging AO/NAO that in model world shows no sign of winding down to fast over the next 10-15 days. Of course It (negative temp departures for Jan/2012) will get off to a great start by the time week 1 ends. Just my opinion, and I'm probably more of an optimist at the moment than most others on here, because I do beleive climo and the above average precip MBY has expierenced since Sept will work in tandem to reward my 8.5 annual snowfall average at some point. Until I see evidence that the pattern we've been in for the past couple of months changes in regards to sending continiual precip events, my outlook will stay the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Our SE forum and the board in general needs a big snow in the worst way possible. Until then (let's hope it's this year) things are going to be testy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I didn't say we wont go above average on temps past 10 days.Of course we will...no sustained anything. If youre looking for hope on salvaging the Winter, take a good look at the cold outbreak for next week, that wasn't there a few days ago. Thats what I've been talking about. In addition to other things I've said in the past couple of months. I've been listening...not that it matters a whole lot. It's gonna be one of those winters where we get warm, cold, warmish, coldish...it's called a Southern Winter. The surprises will come and most likely, as is common where I live anyway, in a big 'ole hurry. That's what I'm looking forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 At the Greensboro airport(PTI) we are at +4.7 for the month of December. I'll be very shocked for January 2012 if PTI doesn't come in between -2 to +1 (Normal basically) when all is said and done, despite a raging AO/NAO that in model world shows no sign of winding down to fast over the next 10-15 days. Of course It (negative temp departures for Jan/2012) will get off to a great start by the time week 1 ends. Just my opinion, and I'm probably more of an optimist at the moment than most others on here, because I do beleive climo and the above average precip MBY has expierenced since Sept will work in tandem to reward my 8.5 annual snowfall average at some point. Until I see evidence that the pattern we've been in for the past couple of months changes in regards to sending continiual precip events, my outlook will stay the same. I agree. Many storms equals, many chances at snow. Most won't work out but climo says a couple will for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Serious question - medium/long range: Is this upcoming cold shot a "one and done" deal or is there a rinse and repeat in the cycle? I look at models and see nothing to support any long range cool to cold, but would LOVE to be told I'm missing something (and what that is)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Serious question - medium/long range: Is this upcoming cold shot a "one and done" deal or is there a rinse and repeat in the cycle? I look at models and see nothing to support any long range cool to cold, but would LOVE to be told I'm missing something (and what that is)! Looks like after the cold, we begin the warm up Friday in the Southeast, and gets progressively warmer the further west you go. Plains and Texas are really warm next Friday and some of that comes our way next weekend, so we'll begin the warm up around Fri, then probably be above normal next weekend. Then the next Pacific front with some modified polar is upon us around Mon or Tuesday of the next week, so that leaves a potential 3 to 4 days of above normal, before we get back to either normal or below. Looks like rinse , repeat. After that period, its way too uncertain, obviously we're at 10 days. Forgot to mention that weekend front could be a good rainmaker in the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Looks like after the cold, we begin the warm up Friday in the Southeast, and gets progressively warmer the further west you go. Plains and Texas are really warm next Friday and some of that comes our way next weekend, so we'll begin the warm up around Fri, then probably be above normal next weekend. Then the next Pacific front with some modified polar is upon us around Mon or Tuesday of the next week, so that leaves a potential 3 to 4 days of above normal, before we get back to either normal or below. Looks like rinse , repeat. After that period, its way too uncertain, obviously we're at 10 days. Forgot to mention that weekend front could be a good rainmaker in the South. Talk of uncertainty, and possibilities, come Thurs. the cold and the wet are getting close enough to meeting over my yard to give me something interesting to look at for a run or two. Who knows..it might grow, lol. Yesterday it was Michelle looking at possibilities. Sun. it might be NeGa, ETennSH. It was cold enough last night and the night before for some good sleet if a gom low had been coming up. Give me a split flow, energy in waves on the bottom stream, and some tepid shots of cold in a warmish winter, and I'm happy to watch for timing. Lord, knows that's all I've had a lot of winters, and I've been surprised more than once. Meanwhile, that cold early next week looked enough like it might happen that I finally got around to wrapping the faucets Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Where are you guys getting all this warmth? After next weeks 4 days of well below normal air, we get to a couple days of slightly above before the clouds and westerly and nw flow kicks in again. Atleast on GFS and ECMWF thats whats showing. And nothing like what happened in Dec, where we had a week of well above normal with strong southerly/sw flow. It looks nothing like the +20 for few days we had then. Hey Robert, I understand what you're saying about the cold shot coming was not on any of the models until recently and my post about not seeing any cold until the middle or end of January is coming from looking at the models. The way I look at it is even if what the models are showing about a block in western Canada is correct we are still talking about 11 days. By that time we are around January 10th. Then is takes some time for the colder temps to make its way south. Now I'm not saying we're going to blowtorch until then but I could see us being above average. Today for example, I was in the 60's, blowing leaves and cutting the grass. That is not normal during this time of year. Of course this is still December but average to slightly above average is just not going to do it for us here as far as winter weather is concerned. By all means I hope I'm wrong. Anyway I do appreciate all of your posts and have learned a lot over the years from you. Hopefully I'll learn something here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Hey Robert, I understand what you're saying about the cold shot coming was not on any of the models until recently and my post about not seeing any cold until the middle or end of January is coming from looking at the models. The way I look at it is even if what the models are showing about a block in western Canada is correct we are still talking about 11 days. By that time we are around January 10th. Then is takes some time for the colder temps to make its way south. Now I'm not saying we're going to blowtorch until then but I could see us being above average. Today for example, I was in the 60's, blowing leaves and cutting the grass. That is not normal during this time of year. Of course this is still December but average to slightly above average is just not going to do it for us here as far as winter weather is concerned. By all means I hope I'm wrong. Anyway I do appreciate all of your posts and have learned a lot over the years from you. Hopefully I'll learn something here... yes the grass and weeds are terrible here too, indicative of the wet and warmth this Fall. As for any potential 11 day prog, that block GFS has off and on, also coincided with cold already at the US /Canada border so the cold might not be the typical 14 days beyond any development of said block. Its too early to hope for, but not so weak that it can be tossed aside as silly GFS typical long range fantasy stuff either. I say be prepared for wild changes in the 2 week outlooks...I think we've all seen those change on a dime, many times. Agreed, AO and NAO aren't working for us this year yet. Still plenty of time to reverse that. We've had 3 to 4 fairly + AO and NAO months, so if those were to change during mid January, that leaves plenty of time at our regular climo time of year to score with snow/ice/cold. Regardless of all that, I'm loving how often it rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 It is only human nature for those on this board to want something to cheer on, but the facts are that this is a La Nina winter with the added negative of a positive NAO and a negative PNA for the vast majority of the winter leading to what we have seen and will likely continue to see. Whatever cold shots we get will be substantial but very short lived and of a transitory nature followed by a longer period of warm ups. I forecast this exact scenario some time ago on the weather bell site and see no reason to change it now. While the weather is not subject to follow anyone's predictions exactly, the general trends are not our friend (like the last two winters nor most likely for a more agreeable period like the next two winters following this one). Let's just hope we get a system that forms during the brief cold shots we will see and that everyone gets some wintry precipitation sometime this winter, but it is far from a given considering the pattern we are in. Regardless of what occurs the rest of this winter, I feel it is a very good chance we will have a violent spring and oppressively hot/dry summer for the vast majority of the SE. When all is said and done, I think this winter will average between 2-4 degrees above normal for the SE as a whole. Personally I don't like that type of winter but we have to take what we are given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Looks like after the cold, we begin the warm up Friday in the Southeast, and gets progressively warmer the further west you go. Plains and Texas are really warm next Friday and some of that comes our way next weekend, so we'll begin the warm up around Fri, then probably be above normal next weekend. Then the next Pacific front with some modified polar is upon us around Mon or Tuesday of the next week, so that leaves a potential 3 to 4 days of above normal, before we get back to either normal or below. Looks like rinse , repeat. After that period, its way too uncertain, obviously we're at 10 days. Forgot to mention that weekend front could be a good rainmaker in the South. Looks to me like a lot of persistent troughiness in the east and the semblance of a ridge near the west coast, at least with the Euro ensembles and the Canadian long range maps. Certainly not much of a southeast ridge showing. January could still throw a surprise or two around the way I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 00z has another good cold shot coming in the medium to LR....might be a fun run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 frank strait with the NAO trending - , the end of the run for the GFS is very believeable that mid month might get real cold with staying power! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 frank strait with the NAO trending - , the end of the run for the GFS is very believeable that mid month might get real cold with staying power! Well the 00z is at least keeping the LR seasonal which should make folks north of the mason dixon breath a little easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 NWS they had us forecasted a high of 38 a day or two ago now they have back down to 35 as a high on tuesday(which i just rechecked now back to 38) i was going to say i think the north end of our county will stay at freezing, i havent seen the lastest runs as of yet.. i would really love to see some teens in here tuesday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 00z has a big Alaskan Block, just like earleir today. It starts developing up their at day 10. I just got through flipping/surfing back and forth through panels so forgive me if my timing is off by 12 hours. This is what's worth tracking IMO as we head into next week. Getting this block to materialize would be huge boost. HP maxes out at 1052 and holds steady through Day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 00z has a big Alaskan Block, just like earleir today. It starts developing up their at day 10. I just got through flipping/surfing back and forth through panels so forgive me if my timing is off by 12 hours. This is what's worth tracking IMO as we head into next week. Getting this block to materialize would be huge boost. HP maxes out at 1052 and holds steady through Day 15. I thought it was going to show a split flow towards the end of the run but looked to break down at hr 384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 00z has a big Alaskan Block, just like earleir today. It starts developing up their at day 10. I just got through flipping/surfing back and forth through panels so forgive me if my timing is off by 12 hours. This is what's worth tracking IMO as we head into next week. Getting this block to materialize would be huge boost. HP maxes out at 1052 and holds steady through Day 15. Yep, starts really developing around h228 Gets pretty strong and remains there through the entire run but retrogrades a bit by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I thought it was going to show a split flow towards the end of the run but looked to break down at hr 384. Yeah, that is encouraging to me, and like clock work there is a gulf storm with cold near an over running possibility, and even tho it breaks down it sends in another gulf storm. Thats the pattern I want...gulf storm after gulf storm on that southern stream with reinforcing shots of coinciding cold. .. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 hard to believe any models right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 hard to believe any models right now Why? Because they don't show what you want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 Why? Because they don't show what you want? No, It's because they have flipped solutions too frequently to be trusted. Even in the short range,(0-180) the model madness continues. Are you saying that you are on-board with the ECMWF's January weeklies solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Why? Because they don't show what you want? The GFS and Euro weeklies are showing entirely different solutions in the medium to long range. The Euro will get the edge, but the GFS seemed to outperform it last winter. As Foothills stated earlier, since the Euro only comes out twice per day there are less opportunities to see it waffle. Basically, it's tough to trust the long range because a model showing a torch in January is akin to a model showing a cold spell in August. The model is going against climo so it's tough buy the solution completely. I don't trust either model at this point either. Sensible weather would say that the warmer(not torch) solution w/ less wintery weather would be more reasonable given what one would expect from typical Nina conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Why? Because they don't show what you want? Look buddy boy, they have switched around the last four weeks in case you haven't been watching. I could careless what it does. I can survive without wintry weather. I just said its hard to trust any of them. But I am glad you asked. Now you can go stick your head back in the hole you popped out of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Why? Because they don't show what you want? Did you actually say this? Not is it only completely out of line, it a clear dismissal of the poor performance and lack of continuity from the GFS and other models lately..I apologize if I am out of line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The Euro shows no signs of either a Greenland or Alaska block- it does continue the progressive flow so we will see a frontal passage now and then, but not anything really super cold or snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The Euro shows no signs of either a Greenland or Alaska block- it does continue the progressive flow so we will see a frontal passage now and then, but not anything really super cold or snowy. Indeed. Quite the mirror image of last winter, now with a persistent lack of arctic blocking. That fast and tight flow across the N Atlantic has consistently held on for several weeks now and looks to continue for at least a couple more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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