SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[franklin NCwx]

Euro ensemble: a nice cold shot, -10 850 temps to ATL, -12 to NC. Not much snow except mountain upslope.

That's not a surprise since its a smoothed mean. Does it have the big ridge out west?

[packbacker]

2 step process to get op Euro storm to work out. 1) get the ridge pumped up out west 2) get a sw to dig into the trough in the east. Seems the 12z euro ensembles agree with the operational on step 1, It's step 2, finding or agreeing on a sw to dig into the trough that's gonna be the wishy washy part over the next several days watching models.

It's good to see the ridge in the ensemble mean, that at least gives a chance to a snow event mid next week.

[NavarreDon]

I'll be watching this one fairly closely as I'll be heading to South Carolina on the 3rd. I can tell you with respect to the current negative tilt system moving through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the Euro is the only model that successfully caught on to the pattern 6 days out and was eerily accurate. The GFS, GEM and NAM continued to flip flop and did not catch on to the amplification until about 36 hours ago.

What kind of solution did the ens members show? Did they have alot of variance from the op?

[LithiaWx]

It's about time for a thread dedicated to the storm in the 3-5th range I would think. Euro, Canadian combo with a side of NOGAPS seems like enough support to know there is likely to be a system of some sort headed to the southeast, add in the GFS had the storm then lost it sounds like we do have something coming. The last thread I started on a storm was a pretty big fail for 99% of us so I'll pass this time. Who is feeling the mojo? This thread is getting clogged with storm specific data, mods if I'm jumping the gun I apologize but it seems to make sense at this point.

[Cheeznado]

That's not a surprise since its a smoothed mean. Does it have the big ridge out west?

Yes, but the Op is very much different than almost all the members, except for the Op there is not a ton of spread, actually. This is an interesting test- I have seen in the past that a consistent Op will beat the ensembles, but the trend on the Op must last at least 4 or 5 runs without too much variation. If the next couple of Ops still have the extreme scenario, than maybe we can believe it more. For now I am skeptical.

[LithiaWx]

That's not a surprise since its a smoothed mean. Does it have the big ridge out west?

I have not seen the models you are talking about but word in the New England forums suggest that yes the Euro ensembles show a big ridge out west.

Euro ensembles have the monster ridge out west...they don't carve the trough as deep in the east so we don't see that ridiculous low...but the isobars hang back in an anafrontal manner on the mean so it does suggest that some members are probably forming something.

The huge ridge is probably what you'd want to focus on for now for the Jan 3-4 storm...and then worry about the trough/vortmax specifics as we get a couple days closer.

[WhiteoutWX]

It's about time for a thread dedicated to the storm in the 3-5th range I would think. Euro, Canadian combo with a side of NOGAPS seems like enough support to know there is likely to be a system of some sort headed to the southeast, add in the GFS had the storm then lost it sounds like we do have something coming. The last thread I started on a storm was a pretty big fail for 99% of us so I'll pass this time. Who is feeling the mojo? This thread is getting clogged with storm specific data, mods if I'm jumping the gun I apologize but it seems to make sense at this point.

I would wait until the GFS at least has something. Right now with so much model disagreement its sit, wait, and watch for a few days.

[WeatherNC]

It's about time for a thread dedicated to the storm in the 3-5th range I would think. Euro, Canadian combo with a side of NOGAPS seems like enough support to know there is likely to be a system of some sort headed to the southeast, add in the GFS had the storm then lost it sounds like we do have something coming. The last thread I started on a storm was a pretty big fail for 99% of us so I'll pass this time. Who is feeling the mojo? This thread is getting clogged with storm specific data, mods if I'm jumping the gun I apologize but it seems to make sense at this point.

Feel free, anyone who wants to start a storm specific thread go for it. Better have your mojo lined up though cause bust potential is sig >avg. Personal opinion, I would wait for the 12z's tomorrow before pulling the trigger on one. I do think this will eventually warrant its own thread, however, op EC/CMC vs everything else day 6-7, not biting until I see at-least some ens agreement, including a couple GFS mems get a wif. I will not stop you/anyone who wants to roll with it, probably going to need it soon, just my 2 cents.

[WeatherNC]

Cheez is bringing it, ATL peeps, don't give up hope yet, all storm specific disco for the Jan 1st-4th period goes here:

Pattern change/other mid-long range stuff belongs here. You guys have latitude, but once we get into higher traffic, maybe this weekend, ot/crap posts will be moved to banter or deleted.

[heath22]

Hey guys, newbie from Middle Tennessee here. From reading through the posts, I am guessing this will have no effect on mid tn, is this correct?

[buckeyefan1]

Hey guys, newbie from Middle Tennessee here. From reading through the posts, I am guessing this will have no effect on mid tn, is this correct?

Welcome Heath Please check out this thread for proper posting etiquette especially during interesting weather http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/9664-posting-etiquette/

[HKY_WX]

Pretty extreme upper level look on the euro. At one point there is a <520dm height contour over NC as this storm closes off (day 8). This has arctic properties as it phases. I caution excitement though b/c the pattern doesn't necessarily support that over the atlantic. Timing will be critical for this to have any chance to work out.

[Carvers Gap]

Hey guys, newbie from Middle Tennessee here. From reading through the posts, I am guessing this will have no effect on mid tn, is this correct?

Heath22. Welcome aboard. Right now it is far too early to know if or where this will be. Most of us depend on the meteorologists / pro forecasters(red tags/yellow tags) and those who have extensive knowledge even though they view this as a hobby. Watch their discussions over the next few days. Many folks will even post call maps as well if, indeed, it is warranted. Read their discussions and use Google - a lot. And for the moment, middle TN is not in the game. But that can change. The TN Valley (Nashville and west) has been a favored tack for the northwest quadrant of several cut-offs this season. So, I wouldn't rule that out at this point. Honestly, this is a tricky forecast and it will be extremely tough to know any details for at least 4-5 days.

[heath22]

Heath22. Welcome aboard. Right now it is far too early to know if or where this will be. Most of us depend on the meteorologists / pro forecasters(red tags/yellow tags) and those who have extensive knowledge even though they view this as a hobby. Watch their discussions over the next few days. Many folks will even post call maps as well if, indeed, it is warranted. Read their discussions and use Google - a lot. And for the moment, middle TN is not in the game. But that can change. The TN Valley (Nashville and west) has been a favored tack for the northwest quadrant of several cut-offs this season. So, I wouldn't rule that out at this point. Honestly, this is a tricky forecast and it will be extremely tough to know any details for at least 4-5 days.

Thanks Carver. To the mods, and everyone else, I promise I will not be a nag. I am a newbie for sure, but I have always been fascinated by the weather. I love a good storm. Especially a winter one. Its very cool to be able to come here and read the thoughts from people who actually know the science of meteorology. I find the local guys are brief and model driven with no analysis. And accuweather and The Weather channel, well, they just suck.

[keithinala]

I would wait until the GFS at least has something. Right now with so much model disagreement its sit, wait, and watch for a few days.

like this?

[WilkesboroDude]

like this?

No, wrong time frame. I would prefer Monday night system in the shorter range.

[chapelhillwx]

like this?

Wow, I know this is total fantasy stuff, but I saved it because of the interesting places where that map shows at least a trace of snow.

The northern third of Florida, New Orleans, Houston, Charleston, etc.

[tnweathernut]

Hey guys, newbie from Middle Tennessee here. From reading through the posts, I am guessing this will have no effect on mid tn, is this correct?

Welcome to the board Heath, what part of mid TN? I grew up in Gallatin. The 12z Euro actually had some accumulating snow in middle Tennessee for next weeks storm, It will be interesting to see what happens. I heard that Bill Hall passed away the other day. Sad as I grew up watching him give his snowbird reports in the wintertime and hoping and praying Sumner County schools would be out.

I am hoping the pattern changes later this month as this cold front coming through next week looks to be transitory. As it stands, middle Tennessee will definitely get the biggest cold snap of the season, with at least flurries in the air a possibility. Have a great week, always good to see Tennessee bretheren in the house.

[griteater]

If you look at the Euro vs. GFS height anomaly comparison in the 168-240hr timeframe, you not only see the difference for the potential storm early next week, but you can also see a big difference in Alaska. The Euro moves the Alaska vortex to a position along the Alaskan western border, whereas the GFS has broad negative height anomalies from Alaska into western Canada. The Euro positioning of the Alaska vortex is a good location for maintaining the strong +PNA ridging in western U.S. / western Canada. At day 10 on the Euro, there is a 2nd wave that drops into the SE, with another set to top the ridge in SW Canada.

[AirNelson39]

You guys are such early birds haha I want the euro pbp for fantasy land!

[msuwx]

Just skimming through the 6z GFS, you can clearly see the model wants to have troughing more ofter than not in the eastern US. January looks significantly different than December.

[Met1985]

Just skimming through the 6z GFS, you can clearly see the model wants to have troughing more ofter than not in the eastern US. January looks significantly different than December.

Well Weather we get a storm or not. Atleast it is looking like we will turn colder.

[CandymanColumbusGA]

Just skimming through the 6z GFS, you can clearly see the model wants to have troughing more ofter than not in the eastern US. January looks significantly different than December.

I'm loving the look of the models for Jan 5-9! Too early to tell if there will be snow but colder weather is always something to rejoice! With the cold air in place we can track the real possibility of the first significant snowfall of the year! It's also interesting to note that last January, around the 10th or 11th, we saw that pattern change to a warmer regimen than we saw last December. It's certainly looking like the pattern wants to flip around that same time period give or take a week. The big question will be how long we have a +PNA and a weaker AO. The NAO is forecast to dip near neutral over the next week or two so there's hope for a much colder January than December.

[msuwx]

Indeed! Just for graphical purposes, here's the latest NAO ensembles...... a lot better. One index does not a season make, but this helps.

I'm loving the look of the models for Jan 5-9! Too early to tell if there will be snow but colder weather is always something to rejoice! With the cold air in place we can track the real possibility of the first significant snowfall of the year! It's also interesting to note that last January, around the 10th or 11th, we saw that pattern change to a warmer regimen than we saw last December. It's certainly looking like the pattern wants to flip around that same time period give or take a week. The big question will be how long we have a +PNA and a weaker AO. The NAO is forecast to dip near neutral over the next week or two so there's hope for a much colder January than December.

[Tacoma]

oh yea getting colder, sounds great.

[FoothillsNC]

Indeed! Just for graphical purposes, here's the latest NAO ensembles...... a lot better. One index does not a season make, but this helps.

Yes if we can get that NAO down event to neutral, we'd up our chances at a supressed flow, which is usually my favorite and first choice at something wintry in the South. A split flow is a second favorite, but that looks unlikely. Usually, only a strong PNA doesnt' work for us, as it favors Miller B , with possibly only the mountains getting hit, and dry downslope for most of the South since systems usually develop right on the coast, but a few here and there could develop like yesterdays runs showed with a strong neg. tilt /cutoff in the Southeast. The flow does seem to be changing around the globe atleast a little bit, and there is strong signs of keeping cold shots coming into the East, so I think we'll have more threats to follow pretty quickly.

[Carvers Gap]

Yes if we can get that NAO down event to neutral, we'd up our chances at a supressed flow, which is usually my favorite and first choice at something wintry in the South. A split flow is a second favorite, but that looks unlikely. Usually, only a strong PNA doesnt' work for us, as it favors Miller B , with possibly only the mountains getting hit, and dry downslope for most of the South since systems usually develop right on the coast, but a few here and there could develop like yesterdays runs showed with a strong neg. tilt /cutoff in the Southeast. The flow does seem to be changing around the globe atleast a little bit, and there is strong signs of keeping cold shots coming into the East, so I think we'll have more threats to follow pretty quickly.

It is becoming more apparent, though we may not get the storm on the Euro, that the pattern is looking increasingly promising. I won't use the term "flip" quite yet. But the pattern looks to bring repetitive troughs into the East. As many of us have stated, that's a great set-up if we can get some blocking and/or a suppressed flow. So, while we may be losing the big storm, the pattern is looking more favorable in that we may have multiple storms to track just before the middle of January. I'm much more optimistic than I have been all winter. The NAO is showing, for the second day in a row, a significant drop and almost every model is showing troughing in the East. Seems that we could get quite an artic outbreak if the GFS has its way. And if the GFS scores a win over the Euro and Canadian models w/ the non-storm, it may have an edge at this point on the longer range features since it is handling the pattern better. That said, that drop in the NAO "should" have a storm accompanying it as that has been the pattern this winter. And I do think if it drops to negative territory, a storm will accompany that on the East coast.

Has Mr. Bob been in the house during the holiday?

[EmersonGA]

Has Mr. Bob been in the house during the holiday?

Hopes aren't nearly high enough in here for Mr. Bob to show up yet. Once everyone has their snow glasses on then he will show up to dash our dreams.

[FoothillsNC]

It is becoming more apparent, though we may not get the storm on the Euro, that the pattern is looking increasingly promising. I won't use the term "flip" quite yet. But the pattern looks to bring repetitive troughs into the East. As many of us have stated, that's a great set-up if we can get some blocking and/or a suppressed flow. So, while we may be losing the big storm, the pattern is looking more favorable in that we may have multiple storms to track just before the middle of January. I'm much more optimistic than I have been all winter. The NAO is showing, for the second day in a row, a significant drop and almost every model is showing troughing in the East. Seems that we could get quite an artic outbreak if the GFS has its way. And if the GFS scores a win over the Euro and Canadian models w/ the non-storm, it may have an edge at this point on the longer range features since it is handling the pattern better. That said, that drop in the NAO "should" have a storm accompanying it as that has been the pattern this winter. And I do think if it drops to negative territory, a storm will accompany that on the East coast.

Has Mr. Bob been in the house during the holiday?

I still think that without the neg NAO someone in the Southeast will get a wallop from one or more systems this Winter, its just that a good neg. NAO will just increase the chances, and probably broaden in out. And I wouldn't be shocked to see Euro come back with a strong system on todays run. It still may be too far east to do us any good though...but in the back of my mind I keep thinking and remembering how so many systems have dug more than progged and ended up quite a bit west of where they were progged several days out, so thats something to keep in mind. Even if all models shown a longwave on the east coast, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see it further west. But to get a good hit like 12z yesterday, we'd need the partial splitting of the flow in the Plains, where the Rockies wave gets left behind in a slower flow, meanwhile the Lakes wave moves quicker, and allows the cold air to get in here before the southern wave cuts off somewhere. I think last nights run and the 6z GFS also had a steepening of the east coast trough, just further east, and another wave dropping down the west side of the trough..so the models see a lot of waves in the flow, and they will probably fluctuate a lot. Its not a stable pattern I don't think.

[burgertime]

Typical GFS in the LR, cold comes and moisture is nowhere to be found. Cold retreats and it shows up...I know not the GFS fault just the pattern but I would rather blame the GFS! However it does seem the GFS is saying we are hitting a cold pattern.