Gastonwxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Here it was at 174: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GGEM PType Maps... Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Lol, fantasy snow and cold are great, but what about sensible rains? I've only just started to get some heavier rains, and would sure like to know if the train keeps running, even if it isn't snow down here Thanks, T you'd get some rain ahead of the incoming front before it stalls. And where it stalls will determing how much, but so long as this run is right, you'd do ok with prefrontal rains at the very least. Now if it cuts off quicker, you'd get more (plus have a shot at wrap around change to snow!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 you'd get some rain ahead of the incoming front before it stalls. And where it stalls will determing how much, but so long as this run is right, you'd do ok with prefrontal rains at the very least. Now if it cuts off quicker, you'd get more (plus have a shot at wrap around change to snow!) Thanks, Robert! Are we talking a wet pattern for the Doc? The GFS isn't very interested in continuing the every 3/5 day pattern. Thanks, Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I would love for this to work out for you NC and SC folks....Hopefully we can get a big time storm that whallops all of us! Robert's ideas about these cutoffs seem to really be a 6th sense or something....Good Job Robert and Burger on the info today....looking forward to the PBP's...IF this works out to EURO right GFS wrong....Hmmmm that would certainly be intersting...Robert had noted in the past that the GFS was kicking European tail in the recent past...Time for the flip-flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 New Euro matches HPC's earlier thinking of snow possible in mid-south / Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I would love for this to work out for you NC and SC folks....Hopefully we can get a big time storm that whallops all of us! Robert's ideas about these cutoffs seem to really be a 6th sense or something....Good Job Robert and Burger on the info today....looking forward to the PBP's...IF this works out to EURO right GFS wrong....Hmmmm that would certainly be intersting...Robert had noted in the past that the GFS was kicking European tail in the recent past...Time for the flip-flop. Yes this will be the first major role reversal since last Christmas storm. Who knows yet if the Euro comes back and whips the GFS on this. But to its credit, a run or 2 of the GFS about 4 days ago had this almost exact setup shown. This makes good 6 to 7 runs of ECMWF with a deep eastern trough, so if it occurs, it gets the true win in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS is the new Dr. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Word gets around fast!! I heard DT screamin and thought I'd check it out. 121 users!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Loving the free euro snowmaps from wunderground. Seems that GSO would get close to 10+ if you take the 174 and 180 and add them up. Hopefully the euro will hold serve and be right on the pac ridge. My old rule is 2 consecutive runs inside 5 days on the euro and you could take it to the bank. Thursday 12z run will begin to get us inside this window. Great to see it's being consistent so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 JMA looks good out at 144. Anyone have it after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wasn't there an old rule that some went by? The triple E rule...ECMWF, ETA, what was the other E model? Someone once said that if these 3 had it, take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wasn't there an old rule that some went by? The triple E rule...ECMWF, ETA, what was the other E model? Someone once said that if these 3 had it, take it to the bank. The ETA is basically the NAM now, so you have to get inside 84 hours for this rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GGEM PType Maps... Based on the inland surface track, the 12z Canadian would be a disappointment for many south of the VA/NC boarder. I am still skeptical for the SE, GFS ensembles that show amplification in the 6-8 day are north/OTS/NNE Hit. It gives pause that at-least a few do not show something similar to the EC. Either the GFS is inherently flawed with this setup, the Euro inherently gifted, or a middle ground is struck somewhere in-between. Global model verification scores drop off precipitously after day 5, with the Euro/UKM leading the way in terms of H5 for the NH. HPC noted in the morning extended that the Euro has a bias of being too deep with systems after day 5, and I think most of us have noticed this also; how many times have we seen a deep cut-off show up on 7-10 day panels. Granted, this one looks more extreme than anyone I can remember as of late, but the fact is these wild solutions after day 5 usually trend towards a middle road. Below is the H5 anomalies from this run at 192hrs, if you are feeling lucky, go buy a lottery ticket tonight because the chance of 450m neg departures materializing in the SE, that's almost unheard of (4 sigma type stuff). JMA looks good out at 144. Anyone have it after that? Slightly more amped GFS, progressive with a frontal passage, kind of surprised, past couple runs have looked similar to the Euro. Within 120 and the Euro/UKMET have a similar look, then you know it may be getting serious. Until then, expect the chaos to continue. http://www.meteociel...&nh=1&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Word gets around fast!! I heard DT screamin and thought I'd check it out. 121 users!! DT is also saying MJO goes to Phases 7 and 8 .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'll be watching this one fairly closely as I'll be heading to South Carolina on the 3rd. I can tell you with respect to the current negative tilt system moving through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the Euro is the only model that successfully caught on to the pattern 6 days out and was eerily accurate. The GFS, GEM and NAM continued to flip flop and did not catch on to the amplification until about 36 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 With seven days to go, I'm keeping my powder dry on this one. Sure, the pattern is ripe for this type of storm. But....it's seven days away. I'm going to follow it closely, but it's way too early to be getting overly stoked. What I take from today's model runs is that an East coast storm is possible and maybe even likely somewhere east of the Mississippi. That said, we have no idea where this baby is going. Like Foothills, a strong westward jog wouldn't surprise me. What does encourage me is that the NAO is projecting downward on the CPC site. As I mentioned yesterday or the day before, it wouldn't surprise me to see a storm accompany that downward trend. Still, it's very, very early. But if I had to put my money on a horse, the Euro would be it. Keep in mind, I don't bet and we may find out why! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 JMA, CMC and Euro are showing similar setup for a storm. The GFS and Euro Op and ENS are showing PNA spike and neutral AO early next week which argues for something. I would feel much better for SE if NAO was close to neutral but it won't be. It looks good for storm of some sort but with the trends the past few weeks argues for a west shift which would leave out a lot of the SE, except for the foothills and mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'll be watching this one fairly closely as I'll be heading to South Carolina on the 3rd. I can tell you with respect to the current negative tilt system moving through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the Euro is the only model that successfully caught on to the pattern 6 days out and was eerily accurate. The GFS, GEM and NAM continued to flip flop and did not catch on to the amplification until about 36 hours ago. Déjà Vu - 2010/2011 winter. It was King Euro for a span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I would love for this to work out for you NC and SC folks....Hopefully we can get a big time storm that whallops all of us! Robert's ideas about these cutoffs seem to really be a 6th sense or something....Good Job Robert and Burger on the info today....looking forward to the PBP's...IF this works out to EURO right GFS wrong....Hmmmm that would certainly be intersting...Robert had noted in the past that the GFS was kicking European tail in the recent past...Time for the flip-flop. Don't expect me to be on it tonight. I've got to catch up from my Holiday Hangover and tons of work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Merry Christmas guys. 12z ECMWF shows the day 7/8 storm brings 8-12 inches of snow to N/NW/NE piedmonts of NC, 4-8 to NE TN, central/northern mountains/foothills/southern piedmont, sandhills, coastal plain of NC, and upstate SC, and 2-4 across east TN, NW and central SC, narrow band in downeast NC. The model shows an extreme cut-off scenario that is possible, but seems to certainly be the extreme scenario as of now. Shows major cold outbreak down into Florida following the storm. Will comment when i see ECMWF Ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Merry Christmas guys. 12z ECMWF shows the day 7/8 storm brings 8-12 inches of snow to N/NW/NE piedmonts of NC, 4-8 to NE TN, central/northern mountains/foothills/southern piedmont, sandhills, coastal plain of NC, and upstate SC, and 2-4 across east TN, NW and central SC, narrow band in downeast NC. The model shows an extreme cut-off scenario that is possible, but seems to certainly be the extreme scenario as of now. Shows major cold outbreak down into Florida following the storm. Will comment when i see ECMWF Ens. Allan, Good to see you here. Where have you been? I am anxiously awaiting what you see on the ensembles. Thanks for taking the time to pop in and post your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 DT is also saying MJO goes to Phases 7 and 8 .... I just heard him screamin'. LOL I didn't listen to what he was sayin'. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 230 PM EST TUE DEC 27 2011 VALID 12Z FRI DEC 30 2011 - 12Z TUE JAN 03 2012 A QUIET RATHER MILD PATTERN MOST PLACES THRU THE WEEKEND. BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES NEXT WEEK. DETAILS QUITE SKETCHY... MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THAT THE FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BUCKLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS FROM ALASKA SOUTHWARD ALONG 140W. THIS IN TURN LEADS TO SIGNIFICANT RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...CAUSING THE HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW TO CEASE. A TROF SHOULD DEVELOP SOMEWHERE E OF THE PLAINS STATES...BUT HOW FAR E? HOWEVER...THE GEFS FAMILY OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IS MUCH FLATTER/DELAYED/FARTHER E AS THEIR TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP SUN DAY 5. WHEN THE 00Z GEFS MEAN FINALLY DOES DEVELOP THE TROUGH...IT IS STILL WEAKER WITH IT MON/TUE THAN THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS. BY SUN...THE 00Z/27 GFS/CANADIAN/GEFS MEAN PROGRESS THE DEVELOPING TROUGH FARTHER EAST THAN THE 00Z/27 UKMET/ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. SINCE THERE IS DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS ON FLOW IN THE ERN PACIFIC BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED ...A CORRESPONDING SLOW MOVING/AMPLIFIED TROUGH EAST OF THE PLAINS MAKES SENSE...THOUGH NOT AS SLOW/AMPLIFIED AS THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z/27 ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO SLOW/STRONG WITH SYSTEMS FARTHER OUT THAN 120 HOURS. LARGE SCALE TELECONNECTIONS ON AN ERN PACIFIC TROUGH AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER GREENLAND FAVOR A MUCH WEAKER E COAST TROF THAN THE ECMWF OR ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE KEY SEEMS TO BE HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION OF AN ERN PACIFIC TROUGH ALONG 140W OCCURS AROUND DAY 5...WITH SUBSEQUENT AMPLIFICATION DOWNSTREAM OVER NOAM. THE 00Z/12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SEEMS TO GO TOO FAR IN DEVELOPING A DEEP CLOSED CYCLONE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WHICH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NEXT TUE OR WED. HOWEVER...THERE IS STRONG ECENS ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI SUPPORT FOR A DEEP...YET LESS DRASTIC...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS MON-WED. THERE IS CONSISTENCY IN RECENT DETERMINISTIC ECMWF RUNS WITH THIS GENERAL AMPLIFYING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z/27 ECENS MEAN STILL SEEMS LIKE A GOOD HEDGE AFTER SUN DAY 5...IN VIEW OF ITS GOOD LONG TERM GOOD VERIFICATION. THE 12Z/27 GFS/GEFS MEAN PERSISTED IN A GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE FLAVOR IN ITS FORECASTS. THE GFS SEEMS TO OVERPLAY ONE IMPULSE REACHING THE E COAST SAT DAY 5 GIVEN ITS FAST WESTERLY ENVIRONMENT...WHILE IT SHOWS ONLY MODERATE DEVELOPMENT TO THE NEXT TROUGH REACHING 85W BY SUN. IT HAS EVEN BACKED OFF IN AMPLITUDE HERE FROM ITS 06Z/27 RUN. THE 12Z/27 UKMET WAS IN SNYC WITH THE GFS ON THE MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE COUNTRY THRU MON DAY 6. THEN COMETH THE 12Z/27 CANADIAN...HANDLING THE PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER 48 FROM DAY 4 ONWARD VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z/27 ECMWF WITH SPECTACULAR DIGGING/CLOSING OFF ALOFT NEAR THE LOWER MS VLY EARLY TUE. THE SCORE IS EVEN WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN/00Z AND 12Z ECMWF/00Z/27 ECENS MEAN PITTED AGAINST THE 12Z/27 GFS/GEFS MEAN/UKMET. THE NEW 12Z/27 ECMWF PLAYS UP A DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE IN THE AMPLIFYING CENTRAL/ERN TROF TUE/WED BUT HAS THE SAME IDEA AS PREVIOUSLY...FORECASTING THE A DAY 8 STORM FOR THE E COAST INSTEAD OF DAY 7. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY FINAL GRAPHICS ARE STAYING UNCHANGED...HEAVILY WEIGHTED ON THE BACK END TOWARDS THE ECENS MEAN. FLOOD 0z EC ens mean @ 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro ens to 132. not looking good so far, the Op is a big outlier....the mean has a weaker ridge and the trough is farther east/north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Watching from the cheap seats, folks. Interesting indeed. By the way, heard thunder in Cary this morning....for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 not much to get excited about in these parts, maybe some token flakes followed by a day or two of cold (er) wx edit: ensembles = meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro ensemble: a nice cold shot, -10 850 temps to ATL, -12 to NC. Not much snow except mountain upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Euro ensemble: a nice cold shot, -10 850 temps to ATL, -12 to NC. Not much snow except mountain upslope. This system has metro atlanta fail written all over it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 2 step process to get op Euro storm to work out. 1) get the ridge pumped up out west 2) get a sw to dig into the trough in the east. Seems the 12z euro ensembles agree with the operational on step 1, It's step 2, finding or agreeing on a sw to dig into the trough that's gonna be the wishy washy part over the next several days watching models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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