FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 if nothing else, its going to get cold this run. 1052 mb high in the Rockies, and a due south flow dragging -16 air into the heartland. And there is the strong s/w at 144 rounding the base out in the western Plains. Can it cutoff or dig into the Southeast or get sheared? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 so much for this being the last of the rain this year. New euro has a digging clipper type system Friday with a narrow band of light rain. It's been the wettest year I can remember in some time .Too bad we can't seem to get to cold here at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 the key timing on Euro is if and when the flow separates. Right now at 144 its pos. tilt, but some separation between the Lakes and the wave diving trhough the west Texas area means everything on what happens for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 if nothing else, its going to get cold this run. 1052 mb high in the Rockies, and a due south flow dragging -16 air into the heartland. And there is the strong s/w at 144 rounding the base out in the western Plains. Can it cutoff or dig into the Southeast or get sheared? Out to 162 it's hard to say what's going that low isn't nearly as strong though as the 00z going up the coast. Looks like some snow in WNC though ...maybe some in CLT up to GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 at 168, the 5h begins a cutoff over west Kentucky. The cold air is banked along the Apps and it looks interesting as far as possibly turning into a deep cutoff...still looks a little too pos. tilt and not quite enough ridging out west....close call though. Also, this qualifies as a blue norther, big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Whoa ! hour 174...Yikes cutoff,a nd snowing in the South. This could get wild. Edit..should say mostly Carolinas. Its a neutral sharp trough, far enough west to allow overrunning and backing flow into the cold in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 at 168, the 5h begins a cutoff over west Kentucky. The cold air is banked along the Apps and it looks interesting as far as possibly turning into a deep cutoff...still looks a little too pos. tilt and not quite enough ridging out west....close call though. Also, this qualifies as a blue norther, big time. Wow 174 looks a lot better lots of moisture going on in NC and GA looks to be in on some of the action. This will be a fun ride boys and girls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Whoa ! hour 174...Yikes cutoff,a nd snowing in the South. This could get wild. This run looks like it might be an I-85 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 180 still going. SFC temps are really falling. Looks like snow across most of NC SC and Eastern GA...though might just be flurries at that point in GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wow 174 looks a lot better lots of moisture going on in NC and GA looks to be in on some of the action. This will be a fun ride boys and girls. Yep, deep cutoff (but broad) in TENN Valley, and surface low on Coast of NC....plenty of snow in CArolinas, don't know how heavy though, as well as snow under teh cutoff in TEnn Valley. Temps here -4 to -8...so temps no prob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Whoa ! hour 174...Yikes cutoff,a nd snowing in the South. This could get wild. Edit..should say mostly Carolinas. Its a neutral sharp trough, far enough west to allow overrunning and backing flow into the cold in the Carolinas. Wow, very fine line here. Talk about threading the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yep, deep cutoff (but broad) in TENN Valley, and surface low on Coast of NC....plenty of snow in CArolinas, don't know how heavy though, as well as snow under teh cutoff in TEnn Valley. Temps here -4 to -8...so temps no prob. Just eyeballing it might be a good .50? Hard to say. That euro map on Wunderground should be fun to look at that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 @192 there is still light moisture and pretty much all snow for NC...snow showers but this looks freaking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Sounds like the Euro is giving no love to Georgia based on what you guys are saying. If the Carolina gets it and we don't I'll be sad for us but happy for you guys to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 at 186, the cutoff is over North GA and the surface low off ORF. This wouild be a major snowstorm for most of East coast, down into Carolinas. Strong high in eastern Canada and again western Plains. Overall, I always liked the idea of a deep cutoff somewhere in the South for a while now, so this fits what I've been honking a couple months now. Of course, hasn't happened yet, its just on the models. One thing though, the models have been too far east with the cutoffs this season, so who knows what that means for this one (if it happens). For the western Carolinas, we're threading the needle, since too far west, will mean the cold wont' come over the Apps in time...and too far east means we don't get into any precip. But the odds are, there is going to be a cutoff. Atleast thats what I'm thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Robert, what do you think about 2m temps on this run? Looks to be very close. Looks to be one of those cold chasing moisture events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Sounds like the Euro is giving no love to Georgia based on what you guys are saying. If the Carolina gets it and we don't I'll be sad for us but happy for you guys to the northeast. Yea looks mainly light for GA...but just based on the Euro a good section of points east and north from ATL on would get a little bit of action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Robert, what do you think about 2m temps on this run? Looks to be very close. Looks to be one of those cold chasing moisture events. Isn't the thickness though conducive for snow...I know 2m temps are going to wreck havoc with what sticks...but still since it's close those on the edge might luck out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Remember not to take this run as truth yet..its well out there. The good news is this model is being pretty consistent on a deep eastern trough. It could wind up a bit west of where its shown, which would rain in the Carolinas, and be a nice snowstorm thats better developed for areas along the Apps and west of the Apps....the recent past sort of argues for a westward trend with time since many cutoffs have beena little further west. It remains to be seen how amped up the western ridge becomes...also, this model has overdone western ridging all season. Thats one major strike against it. But, its fun to look at. A solution that would benefit more of the board would be slightly further west of everything, and the surface development to begin in northeast Gulf of mexico, with the cutoff being located over southern Miss/Ala region that slowly works east. That would spread a major snowstorm throughout much of the Southeast then up the east coast toward Midatlantic. That kind of cutoff would be extremely anamolous, but its happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The low definitely gets going as it continues to trek along the coast at 993mb. It's a nice storm for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast folks. Meanwhile, -14 to -16 850s dive south across TN and extends even into central AL and GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Robert, what do you think about 2m temps on this run? Looks to be very close. Looks to be one of those cold chasing moisture events. I haven't looked yet. The 850 and thicknes looks good though, and the location of the sfc low on the coast, high in Canada and all points west, I' wouldn't worry on surface temps interior NC. The ECMWF is pretty bad anywhere there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The Euro has been extremely stubborn (what, 7 or 8 consecutive runs now?). It reminds me of the success it had last winter in dealing with split flows and longer range. It would appear that other models have been slowly migrating toward the Euro (to some degree anyway). Will we see another winter of the GFS playing catch up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 at 186, the cutoff is over North GA and the surface low off ORF. This wouild be a major snowstorm for most of East coast, down into Carolinas. Strong high in eastern Canada and again western Plains. Overall, I always liked the idea of a deep cutoff somewhere in the South for a while now, so this fits what I've been honking a couple months now. Of course, hasn't happened yet, its just on the models. One thing though, the models have been too far east with the cutoffs this season, so who knows what that means for this one (if it happens). For the western Carolinas, we're threading the needle, since too far west, will mean the cold wont' come over the Apps in time...and too far east means we don't get into any precip. But the odds are, there is going to be a cutoff. Atleast thats what I'm thinking. Sweet!! A week of these PBP's and cliff divers it's time for some weather forum fun folks. How much for mby???lol I'll take the Canadian and Euro right now with the GFS coming on board in a couple days. There will be much waffling and positive/negative trends to come but at least we have a threat to track. Going off history here in SC early january is prime time for a "biggie" if we are to get one. Lookout and WeatherNC might need to express proper etiquette on posting before this starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Isn't the thickness though conducive for snow...I know 2m temps are going to wreck havoc with what sticks...but still since it's close those on the edge might luck out? I agree Burger, the 850's look good. I always like to take a look at 2m temps also and in this case it looked close. Doesn't really matter though considering this is still a good ways away. It's still fun to look at though and to finally have something to track during models runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I haven't looked yet. The 850 and thicknes looks good though, and the location of the sfc low on the coast, high in Canada and all points west, I' wouldn't worry on surface temps interior NC. The ECMWF is pretty bad anywhere there. Thanks Robert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I am not getting all that amped up about this run just yet (especially since ATL would likely get screwed anyway, at least out of accumulating snow)- it is worrisome that the Ukie is not on board at all, and there is little spread in the GFS ensembles. I think that it is pretty obvious that the GFS is likely way OTL, and this trough will be a lot deeper than that model. But will this be as massive a trough as the Euro says? Perhaps, the odds are increasing certainly, but it is a long ways off still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Hour 180 on 12z Euro snowfall...this please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Finally looks like something to track. 850MB temps are really cold, -10C down into Northern Florida... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 it turns into a 5, almost 6 contour cutoff. Not bad at all. Major hit of snow from far upstate SC to most points north and east. Looks like CLT to GSO are atleast 5" , more at GSO and around RIC, then the surface low comes intland at New Jersey then weaken. The Apps should get dumped on good with all the flow of moisture around the low , even down to GA, even though thats not shown so well. That setup would def. support it. For my area, I 'd prefer a slightly further south starting point and the 5h to cut off over Alabama. Anything is possible at this stage of the game. And again if the model is missing the western Ridge, this won't work out. Atleast its something to track, our first snow threat of the season...in a season where many had dove off the cliff for the entire Winter. The pattern has always supported anomalous deep southern cutoffs, and the fact the models still show this just solidifies it. I've said it before and I'll say it again, at some point a major deep snowstorm is likely in the South this season. Who knows if this is the one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Lol, fantasy snow and cold are great, but what about sensible rains? I've only just started to get some heavier rains, and would sure like to know if the train keeps running, even if it isn't snow down here Thanks, T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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