msuwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Oh yes, definitely. Index change time is always something to key on. I am basically on board with the big amplification, but question the specifics with the storm. The Euro ensemble spaghettis are actually in fairly good alignment with the operational....most members either have a deep, sharp trough or a cut-off. True. We've had snows in bad patterns and bad indices. Likewise when the indices are changing and this looks close enough to one or more of the major indices changing (+PNA) and maybe -NAO for a bit, or close to it. The last 5 or 6 runs of the EMCWF has been showing this deep eastern trough in some form or other. The GFS has been on and off with it, lately off. It depends on the Pacific and +PNA. If we dont see a major amplification there, then the Euro won't be right downstream. Its a pretty stark role reversal, usually GFS shows that. It actually did a few days ago, but at that time it was well out there in fantasy time range. Who knows what models will show today? We really need that strong +PNA to work out if the ECMWF is going to be close to right, and the fact its not backing down yet is pretty encouraging for some body to get in on a major snowstorm. I still think for the Carolinas to get in it, would be very hard. But if any year fits an extremely amped up pattern, this is the one. Remember the deep trough a few weeks ago and major cutoff in Mississippi that got Tennessee, Ms, Al and Ark into some snow? Looks like its inching toward a deep south cutoff to me, but thats just guessing right now based on how it seems to have backed up a smidge on its deep trough west of the Apps. If it continues that progression it may cutoff a deep trough around Alabama. But it could just as easily revert to a GFS scenario where its only a frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 True. We've had snows in bad patterns and bad indices. Likewise when the indices are changing and this looks close enough to one or more of the major indices changing (+PNA) and maybe -NAO for a bit, or close to it. The last 5 or 6 runs of the EMCWF has been showing this deep eastern trough in some form or other. The GFS has been on and off with it, lately off. It depends on the Pacific and +PNA. If we dont see a major amplification there, then the Euro won't be right downstream. Its a pretty stark role reversal, usually GFS shows that. It actually did a few days ago, but at that time it was well out there in fantasy time range. Who knows what models will show today? We really need that strong +PNA to work out if the ECMWF is going to be close to right, and the fact its not backing down yet is pretty encouraging for some body to get in on a major snowstorm. I still think for the Carolinas to get in it, would be very hard. But if any year fits an extremely amped up pattern, this is the one. Remember the deep trough a few weeks ago and major cutoff in Mississippi that got Tennessee, Ms, Al and Ark into some snow? Looks like its inching toward a deep south cutoff to me, but thats just guessing right now based on how it seems to have backed up a smidge on its deep trough west of the Apps. If it continues that progression it may cutoff a deep trough around Alabama. But it could just as easily revert to a GFS scenario where its only a frontal passage. Robert I emailed you the info you were looking for, let me know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Oh yes, definitely. Index change time is always something to key on. I am basically on board with the big amplification, but question the specifics with the storm. The Euro ensemble spaghettis are actually in fairly good alignment with the operational....most members either have a deep, sharp trough or a cut-off. You guys are the experts for sure and one thing that always stuck with me was through one of the Learning Center's talks on meteorology they had the head guy from UCLA's meteorology program giving a crash course and he said something along the lines of when a pattern change happens the atmosphere is in chaos and that's when you look for something big. So I always think of that for our area. The models are probably going to be chaos because of that and of course we probably won't know for a few days as they try to make sense of it all. Hopefully we'll cash in. I would rather have chaos with the chance though than nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I agree Burger at least we are now seeing potential unlike all of December. If we miss this one there will be another. Cold air is finally working its way here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 From Wunderground...def the best free Euro map out there but only goes to 180hr.. http://www.wundergro...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Just look the right hand panel and you can switch it to MSL, 850, 2m, etc... Wow, I'm impressed. I would not have guessed they would have pulled off getting those pay maps. That's better than the maps I've had accessed too, although it wen to 240. But anything past 180 is almost meaningless anyway. Thanks for posting that though, I had no idea they had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Well recent developments with the possible storm moving in piqued my interest. I'm not on board just yet. I'll be anxiously awaiting the next set of 12Z runs, lets see if we can get some snow for a decent chunk of our forum posters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I agree Burger at least we are now seeing potential unlike all of December. If we miss this one there will be another. Cold air is finally working its way here True, the one big unknown to me is the big western ridge..its failed to materialize yet. We need to get that thing to actually work out. But regardless, looks like we're eradicating the Bermuda ridge as of late. And GFS keeps the nw flow going and troughiness in the east. It even built an Alaska ridge, and deep mid continent trough late, with plenty of cold in the country. With all the systems in the Pacific, I'm still on board with a turn toward cold +stormy overall. Any snow would be worked out later, but odds favor that more and more on the north side of storm tracks in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wow, I'm impressed. I would not have guessed they would have pulled off getting those pay maps. That's better than the maps I've had accessed too, although it wen to 240. But anything past 180 is almost meaningless anyway. Thanks for posting that though, I had no idea they had it. They've gotten pretty huge, I know from just doing marketing for my company we've approached them about ads and they are able to charge a good amount. Plus their Alexa is 592 which is really good. So they are probably able to pay the royalties pretty easily. They really are setting themselves up to be the best weather site out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Oh yes, definitely. Index change time is always something to key on. I am basically on board with the big amplification, but question the specifics with the storm. The Euro ensemble spaghettis are actually in fairly good alignment with the operational....most members either have a deep, sharp trough or a cut-off. Matt thanks for your time on this site .I know this is going out but what do you see for February for the SE?In the past we've had some great snows in that month .It's funny but the Old Farmers Almanac show mild and snowy for this winter . The break down by month showed slightly above average temps for Dec and Jan but 4 below nromal for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 308 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011 VALID 12Z SAT DEC 31 2011 - 12Z TUE JAN 03 2012 ...SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN/00Z GEFS MEAN PROGRESS THE TROUGH A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. SINCE THE FLOW IS SO AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM...A SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH EAST OF THE PLAINS MAKES SENSE. ROTH I have to say I was quite surprised that the HPC put that headline in their discussion this morning. That is the first thing I saw, and after I read that, I expected to find more model consensus on that scenario than there is. But the Euro is kind of on an island. I agree msu. Almost unfathomable to see HPC mention possible mid-south / carolinas snow given the model uncertainty. It's hard enough to get them to do that in a great pattern. They do mention the UKMet as another model on board with the deep amplification in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS looks like it's still not getting behind the Euro. Out to 126 and our trough doesn't look too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS looks like it's still not getting behind the Euro. Out to 126 and our trough doesn't look too good. Yeah, it's much faster with the trough than the 0Z Euro, which I think leads to the big differences. I think both models might be playing to their bias at this range right now. Bottom line right now is it will at least be cold next week once the trough swings through, anything else would be icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Looks like its headed more towards the euro solution. At 126 its building the western ridge, just not as much as the euro. And the energy does not dig as much. Does have the same idea. Western ridge easy trough. Might be the gfs bias of being to progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS looks like it's still not getting behind the Euro. Out to 126 and our trough doesn't look too good. I'm not excited, looks pretty meh.. on to the GFS ensembles, the Canadian and the Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I'm not excited, looks pretty meh.. on to the GFS ensembles, the Canadian and the Euro.. Yep snoozer this run...at least out to 189 hours. On to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS looks like it's still not getting behind the Euro. Out to 126 and our trough doesn't look too good. Yes, both are handling the incoming s/w in the northern Rockies very differently. And just 120 to 144 hours out, so thats a bad sign. The GFS is very progressive, not much of a western ridge. It does finally deepen the eastern trough but only in the Northeast and eastern Canada, doesn't even turn us cold at all. At 192 hours the flow is completely zonal , straight from eastern Asia, Japan to the eastern US. Thats half way around the world with zonal flow. Kinda doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Here's to hoping the Euro is sniffing this one out. I know Robert mentioned previously the GFS had been doing well since last January. I wonder if it's still performing well or if the Euro has been coming back around to it's rock solid status? My guess is, with all the variability in the pattern, that none of the models would perform particularly well beyond day 3, much less beyond days 6 and 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GFS looks blah in the LR as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GGEM is more amped up than the GFS at 120hrs. That looks like a big storm in the making to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Oh yea..... ggem at 144hrs. Looks like a potential southern closed low about to take shape... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 GGEM is more amped up than the GFS at 120hrs. That looks like a big storm in the making to me... certainly closer to ECM than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Is it me or is there some serious serious cold enveloping all of Canada at 384... Certainly has a 1985 look to it there... not a true neg nao but certainly some blocking in that region. Even though its in fantasy land, this is encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 certainly closer to ECM than GFS. What is the doc. saying about rain? The gfs is pretty dull the first week. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The Euro ensemble spaghettis are actually in fairly good alignment with the operational....most members either have a deep, sharp trough or a cut-off. Not really, the Op is deeper than basically all the individual members- I think that there will be a pretty deep trough, but the preponderance of the evidence says the Op Euro is too deep. The fact the Ukie and the just-in GFS ensembles shallower than the Op Euro would indicate that the Op is "too good to be true". I suspect the new Euro due in soon will switch back to at least a slightly shallower solution. However, if the new Euro sticks to its guns, than all bets may be off., especially given the new CMC which I just saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 CMC at 174hrs has a 2 contour sub 534dm closed low situated over SC. If the Euro shows something similar I think it’s time to get somewhat excited. I’m not sure if ya’ll guys remember but the GFS completely lost the closed low we got back in November in the 4 to 7 day timeframe. While the CMC and euro kept showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Is it me or is there some serious serious cold enveloping all of Canada at 384... Certainly has a 1985 look to it there... not a true neg nao but certainly some blocking in that region. Even though its in fantasy land, this is encouraging Can't agree with you on the January 1985 look, but I do agree that is some pretty intense cold over Canada in that image. We have the nice strong High Pressures building in Canada which is a nice change from what we have been seeing. Then again it is the 384 hour GFS. January 1985 was a very severe arctic outbreak that was historic. The GFS look is very zonal looking. Not to mention it's the worst of all maps to post, the 384 hour GFS.. Here is what January 1985 outbreak looked like on the 500mb maps. Also not sure I would call that High Pressure in Eastern Canada a blocking one. Looks way too far south to deliver any blocking or locked in cold. compared to : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 so much for this being the last of the rain this year. New euro has a digging clipper type system Friday with a narrow band of light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 the euro still has the strong amp. ridge out west, driven by a deep low south of the Gulf of Alaska. The pressure is way down there too, sub 960mb it appears. I don't know if it will be enough to help drive the s/w all the way south toward the Southeast though. We'll see soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 @138 the Euro isn't quite as amped as the 00z but it's close. We'll see where the good doc goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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