Met1985 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Don't even waste your time looking at the 0z GFS Days 7-10...+PNA goes Poof... Ya i have noticed that the GFS have been on been off about every other run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yeah, GFS is ho-hum with the +PNA ridging and associated cold shots in the mid-range....it does however break down the Alaska vortex around hr189 which would be good if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Ya i would really like to no what the euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 0z GFS looks pretty good teleconnection-wise at the end of the run. Doesn't equate to any cold or snow though. Just shows seasonal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Nothing of note on the CMC....zonal flow, temps around average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The New Op Euro is interesting to say the least, has a powerful trough over the SE early next week, snow (at least flurries, some places more) for quite a few in the SE. Not sure I buy this, the Euro has not exactly been totally consistent with the strength if this trough, plus the GFS and CMC are miles different. Still it does make for entertaining viewing and at this point who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The New Op Euro is interesting to say the least, has a powerful trough over the SE early next week, snow (at least flurries, some places more) for quite a few in the SE. Not sure I buy this, the Euro has not exactly been totally consistent with the strength if this trough, plus the GFS and CMC are miles different. Still it does make for entertaining viewing and at this point who knows. Yes it does look very interesting! 00z Euro Seems to def. keep the Trough in the East idea alive.... hr 144: Uploaded with ImageShack.us Uploaded with ImageShack.us hr 168: Uploaded with ImageShack.us Uploaded with ImageShack.us hr 192: Uploaded with ImageShack.us Uploaded with ImageShack.us hr. 216: Uploaded with ImageShack.us Uploaded with ImageShack.us hr. 240: Uploaded with ImageShack.us Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 308 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2011 VALID 12Z SAT DEC 31 2011 - 12Z TUE JAN 03 2012 ...SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BUCKLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS FROM ALASKA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE 140TH MERIDIAN WEST. THIS CAUSES SIGNIFICANT RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA /WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO CEASE ON SATURDAY/ AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE GREAT PLAINS. THE GUIDANCE SHARES THESE IDEAS. BY SUNDAY...THE 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN/00Z GEFS MEAN PROGRESS THE TROUGH A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. SINCE THE FLOW IS SO AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM...A SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH EAST OF THE PLAINS MAKES SENSE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF GOES A STEP TOO FAR BY DEVELOPING A DEEP CLOSED CYCLONE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WHICH MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEXT TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO SLOW/STRONG WITH SYSTEMS BEYOND 120 HOURS...SO IT IS LIKELY A BIT OVERDONE...BUT ITS SOLUTION IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. STARTED WITH A 40/40/20 COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN EARLY ON BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THEREAFTER. PRESSURE-WISE...THIS SOLUTION MAINTAINED REASONABLE CONTINUITY. ROTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Hour 180 of the Euro last night snow wise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Hour 180 of the Euro last night snow wise... Thanks, Burger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Thanks, Burger. Well hopefully this can be one to track. Always sketchy more than 5 days out on the Euro especially given how sucktastic the GFS runs look in the same time period. I think one thing the Euro has going for it is that it's more in line with what we've been getting all fall as far as systems go....but probably our luck the GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Things are certainly looking good for 2012 to start off with a bang weather-wise! It's interesting to see the Euro have a deep, positive trough over the Ohio River Valley next Monday while the GFS went a tad weaker with its trough in the Northeast. I'm blending the two in my forecast here for West Georgia/East Alabama to bring in some rain next Monday with much cooler air next Tuesday and Wednesday. I'm liking the chances for snow for those of you in North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic States away from the coast. The teleconnections are becoming favorable for at least a period of colder weather with the PNA going positive, NAO attempting to get near neutral and the AO not as positive. Still not the ideal conditions for us but at least it's something to talk about the next few days! http://davidwarrenreese.blogspot.com/2011/12/rain-moving-out.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Things are certainly looking good for 2012 to start off with a bang weather-wise! It's interesting to see the Euro have a deep, positive trough over the Ohio River Valley next Monday while the GFS went a tad weaker with its trough in the Northeast. I'm blending the two in my forecast here for West Georgia/East Alabama to bring in some rain next Monday with much cooler air next Tuesday and Wednesday. I'm liking the chances for snow for those of you in North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic States away from the coast. The teleconnections are becoming favorable for at least a period of colder weather with the PNA going positive, NAO attempting to get near neutral and the AO not as positive. Still not the ideal conditions for us but at least it's something to talk about the next few days! http://davidwarrenre...moving-out.html True that I'm hoping this storm holds out and for once MBY beats out GA, AL and eastern NC on snow totals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I don't have exact qpf output on ECMWF but juding by the 6 hour frames intervals and temps, the snow begins in the Upstate around or just after 168 hours, and spreads quickly east across much of NC by 174. Theres a lee trough showing up thats attached to developing low in eastern NC...that storm slowly crawls up the east coast, major dump of snow in central VA and points north, with several inches back down into most of Carolinas. Around CLT looks like around 2" to 4" and increases rapidly north toward GSO with much more, then to over a foot for central VA and DC and well over a foot north of there. This kind of scenario would be very rare, and hard to do in any other year though, and I put little faith in it yet. On one hand, it could be that deep , but usually development would be too far east to get the Carolinas in precip (we usually dry slot quickly) but this time the trough is so deep just west of the Apps at precisely the right time, we already have enough cold coming east of the Apps. Any development further west would be too warm on the east side of the Apps , atleast in CArolnas, any development further east, and we're definitely just dry, but colder (cold chasing moisture). The main possibilities are that the system is so amplified, it cuts off in the Southeast somewhere (fits this years pattern) but that would be strong warmth eastern Carolinas and probably major snow in Apps and GA and eastern Tn/Al, with a gradually turn to snow as the system pulls up the coast. The other likely scenario is its progressive and just a cold front, with prefrontal rains, and then a major nor'easter for the East coast (we're cold and dry). It would be nice to see the GFS in this ball park, but for now ECMWF is atleast being consistent, and its the first winter threat atleast. The cold is impressive, with zero at 850 making it to Miami at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 where you get the snow map Burger? ANyway, kind of fits my estimates. Very unusual to see the cold on this side of the mtns and still have moisture. Lets get the surface low to develop around JAX, and then cut off Savannah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Well hopefully this can be one to track. Always sketchy more than 5 days out on the Euro especially given how sucktastic the GFS runs look in the same time period. I think one thing the Euro has going for it is that it's more in line with what we've been getting all fall as far as systems go....but probably our luck the GFS is correct. lol, I know how you feel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 where you get the snow map Burger? ANyway, kind of fits my estimates. Very unusual to see the cold on this side of the mtns and still have moisture. Lets get the surface low to develop around JAX, and then cut off Savannah. From Wunderground...def the best free Euro map out there but only goes to 180hr.. http://www.wundergro...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Just look the right hand panel and you can switch it to MSL, 850, 2m, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Thanks Robert,. I think eitheir a cutoff quicker in the SE or a front with cold chasing moisture will be the way this plays out. The last run is a perfect thread the needle for MBY and more unlikely outcomes v/s the other 2 scenerios. Should be fun to watch how it all unfoolds though. Enjoy and value your input/thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 I agree. At this point, color me skeptical that the scenario unfolds as depicted on the Euro. Everything would have to line up just right....this would really, really be threading a needle. It just seems it would be very difficult for things to unfold in just that fashion. Now, like you said, there has definitely been a tendency for this powerful cutoffs this year, so I would not rule it out completely. I have to say I was quite surprised that the HPC put that headline in their discussion this morning. That is the first thing I saw, and after I read that, I expected to find more model consensus on that scenario than there is. But the Euro is kind of on an island. I don't have exact qpf output on ECMWF but juding by the 6 hour frames intervals and temps, the snow begins in the Upstate around or just after 168 hours, and spreads quickly east across much of NC by 174. Theres a lee trough showing up thats attached to developing low in eastern NC...that storm slowly crawls up the east coast, major dump of snow in central VA and points north, with several inches back down into most of Carolinas. Around CLT looks like around 2" to 4" and increases rapidly north toward GSO with much more, then to over a foot for central VA and DC and well over a foot north of there. This kind of scenario would be very rare, and hard to do in any other year though, and I put little faith in it yet. On one hand, it could be that deep , but usually development would be too far east to get the Carolinas in precip (we usually dry slot quickly) but this time the trough is so deep just west of the Apps at precisely the right time, we already have enough cold coming east of the Apps. Any development further west would be too warm on the east side of the Apps , atleast in CArolnas, any development further east, and we're definitely just dry, but colder (cold chasing moisture). The main possibilities are that the system is so amplified, it cuts off in the Southeast somewhere (fits this years pattern) but that would be strong warmth eastern Carolinas and probably major snow in Apps and GA and eastern Tn/Al, with a gradually turn to snow as the system pulls up the coast. The other likely scenario is its progressive and just a cold front, with prefrontal rains, and then a major nor'easter for the East coast (we're cold and dry). It would be nice to see the GFS in this ball park, but for now ECMWF is atleast being consistent, and its the first winter threat atleast. The cold is impressive, with zero at 850 making it to Miami at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 where you get the snow map Burger? ANyway, kind of fits my estimates. Very unusual to see the cold on this side of the mtns and still have moisture. Lets get the surface low to develop around JAX, and then cut off Savannah. Without any block, how far west can this go? We have seen many coastals in this timeframe only to turn into apps runners as we draw near Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Without any block, how far west can this go? We have seen many coastals in this timeframe only to turn into apps runners as we draw near every single storm or cutoff, or opening cutoff has went substantially further west than progged , even at just 120 hours out these past couple of months. Todays system is another example, its going west of the Apps as the system turns negative tilt...just a few days ago we had good agreement it would allow the surface low to ride east of the Apps, now its west of Apps. I guess that doesn't mean they all will keep doing that though. We're out of the southwest low idea now, and entering a new type of pattern, so all bets are off on where this takes us. The models will probably fluctuate a lot on where the deep trough develops, it could still be anywhere from the southern plains to our area. The taller the western ridge, the deeper the eastern trough next week. The Ecmwf has been atleast showing this type of eastern trough for a few days now, lets see if it holds on to it. I'm sure some kind of adjustments are coming though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 There is more support than one might think just looking at the op. gfs and Canadian ensemble members do support a deep eastern trough. If its in the ball park, I'd imagine the gfs will catch on in the next 24-36 hours. If its not, the euro will lose it in that same timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Henry Margusity Fan Club The European model snowstorm for Jan 4th is not going to happen. NAO remains too positive for a storm of that magnitude along the coast. Like · · Share · 5141 · 24 minutes ago via HootSuite · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Henry Margusity Fan Club The European model snowstorm for Jan 4th is not going to happen. NAO remains too positive for a storm of that magnitude along the coast. Like · · Share · 24 minutes ago via HootSuite · when has he ever been right? Probably this year! I followed accuweather for years and he was always the worse of all their mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 when has he ever been right? Probably this year! I followed accuweather for years and he was always the worse of all their mets Yep some of his maps have just been totally laugh inducing. That's always been his problem painting it black and white like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Thanks Robert,. I think eitheir a cutoff quicker in the SE or a front with cold chasing moisture will be the way this plays out. The last run is a perfect thread the needle for MBY and more unlikely outcomes v/s the other 2 scenerios. Should be fun to watch how it all unfoolds though. Enjoy and value your input/thoughts. You see that horrible wreck last week right up the road on HWY 49? Dumbass truck driver tried to pass 5 cars in a no passing zone and hit a car head on, killing two folks. Amazingly the six year old grandson lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 yep I remember one time he had us in almost two feet. We got nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Like I said, I have my doubts the Euro is a perfect prog. However, I have never been a fan of saying something will or will definitely not happen based solely on what a certain index says. There are exceptions to most rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Like I said, I have my doubts the Euro is a perfect prog. However, I have never been a fan of saying something will or will definitely not happen based solely on what a certain index says. There are exceptions to most rules. True. We've had snows in bad patterns and bad indices. Likewise when the indices are changing and this looks close enough to one or more of the major indices changing (+PNA) and maybe -NAO for a bit, or close to it. The last 5 or 6 runs of the EMCWF has been showing this deep eastern trough in some form or other. The GFS has been on and off with it, lately off. It depends on the Pacific and +PNA. If we dont see a major amplification there, then the Euro won't be right downstream. Its a pretty stark role reversal, usually GFS shows that. It actually did a few days ago, but at that time it was well out there in fantasy time range. Who knows what models will show today? We really need that strong +PNA to work out if the ECMWF is going to be close to right, and the fact its not backing down yet is pretty encouraging for some body to get in on a major snowstorm. I still think for the Carolinas to get in it, would be very hard. But if any year fits an extremely amped up pattern, this is the one. Remember the deep trough a few weeks ago and major cutoff in Mississippi that got Tennessee, Ms, Al and Ark into some snow? Looks like its inching toward a deep south cutoff to me, but thats just guessing right now based on how it seems to have backed up a smidge on its deep trough west of the Apps. If it continues that progression it may cutoff a deep trough around Alabama. But it could just as easily revert to a GFS scenario where its only a frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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