pcbjr Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Maybe I'm missing something, and if so, please correct me. It seems the 6z and 12z GFS are backing off the cold a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The Op Euro was a pretty big cold outlier compared to its ensemble members- The Euro ens mean looks a lot like the GFS ens mean, i.e. a frontal passage this weekend, but probably dry (or some light rain) and not super cold. No snow except in the mountains. I prefer the current pattern to the one coming up- looks cold but not super cold, but a lot drier. If it is going to be cold it better be really frigid with snow chances. Otherwise warm and wet is what I prefer. Doesn't the Op often get the pattern change before the ensembles? Now, my biggest concern it that the teleconnections(CPC) don't show any real change anytime soon. They've been pretty solid all winter. However, last winter it seems that the Op models caught the pattern change first when we switched to a milder pattern in January. That said, I do think a change is coming...How big? I have no idea. I don't think the current pattern will last all winter, but it is possible that it will last through the heart of winter which would be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Maybe I'm missing something, and if so, please correct me. It seems the 6z and 12z GFS are backing off the cold a bit? I agree totally. The very few times that the models have actually shown sustained cold, they have backed-off after one or two runs. I was getting pretty excited since the models held cold most of yesterday. However, they could just as easily switch back to colder solutions. Until the AO and NAO go negative, I think it is just grasping at straws to look for a cold, stormy pattern though I think that pattern of positives may see some relation soon - as evidenced by the somewhat blockly look of even today's model runs. I do think the pattern is getting ready to change, marginally more of an Eastern trough. Looking like the artic air will be contained in Canada for quite some time. But the GFS seems to be "trying" to sniff out a pattern change - and I think it is on to something albeit a bit early. I am more optimistic than I have been about cold weather approaching the south, especially mid-south regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Maybe I'm missing something, and if so, please correct me. It seems the 6z and 12z GFS are backing off the cold a bit? More than just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Maybe I'm missing something, and if so, please correct me. It seems the 6z and 12z GFS are backing off the cold a bit? Your not missing anything, the gfs zonal flow for next week. No western ridge and east coast trough like previous runs or the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Doesn't the Op often get the pattern change before the ensembles? Now, my biggest concern it that the teleconnections(CPC) don't show any real change anytime soon. They've been pretty solid all winter. However, last winter it seems that the Op models caught the pattern change first when we switched to a milder pattern in January. That said, I do think a change is coming...How big? I have no idea. I don't think the current pattern will last all winter, but it is possible that it will last through the heart of winter which would be tough. Sometimes that is correct, if the Op is consistent, especially the Euro. I will believe the Op Euro deeper solution more if the 12Z run sticks to its guns. It is rolling now. BTW, we are in a pattern change, the SW closed low regime is being replaced by a temporary zonal flow, then an amplification of the western ridge a bit closer to the west coast. This will mean colder weather here, just not convinced it will be all that cold, and it does look drier. This forecast is just for the next 1-2 weeks, beyond that anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Sometimes that is correct, if the Op is consistent, especially the Euro. I will believe the Op Euro deeper solution more if the 12Z run sticks to its guns. It is rolling now. BTW, we are in a pattern change, the SW closed low regime is being replaced by a temporary zonal flow, then an amplification of the western ridge a bit closer to the west coast. This will mean colder weather here, just not convinced it will be all that cold, and it does look drier. This forecast is just for the next 1-2 weeks, beyond that anyone's guess. I'm with you Cheeznado....cold without precip = worthless! Just higher utilities. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 New Euro still with a pretty good cold shot, -12 at 850 to ATL Tuesday AM. No snow except a decent upslope mountain event. The cold on this run is quite brief, thicknesses in ATL go from 520 to 538 during the day Tues. Pretty dull run, unless you like cold without snow, and even that will not last long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Thanks Robert, I was just going over the 0z runs. The cmc has a similar look to the euro at 180. It digs the trough even farther south than the euro. Would be. Nice interior south snowstorm. And the ensembles have a strong signal for a big eastern trough. Still very far out there like you said. But the pattern sure looks more exciting. The 12Z CMC is not as deep as the Euro, still has a cold shot, but not nearly as far south as the Euro. The 12Z Ukie looks like a digging eastern trough as well, the GFS is becoming the outlier. So my confidence in perhaps the coldest shot of the season is increasing, but not very excited about significant snow chances except in the usual mountain spots. Still a lot of uncertainty however. Will be interesting to see if the Euro ensembles go along.... Edit: Euro ensembles now colder, the Op is still an outlier but not as extreme as the 00Z Run. Mean 850 temp in ATL about -5 overnight Monday night/Tuesday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The pattern looks, to my untrained eye, like a +PNA pattern. To be true, to me that also looks like a pretty fine block in the north Atlantic at 240 on the 12z Euro - has that omega look. Almost looks like a false negative w/ that huge low in the Gulf of Alaska pumping that western ridge. Might be a pattern change. Might not. Could just be the result of that monster storm. Trough definitely looking like it wants to stay east of Hawaii. Edit: Looking more closely, the cold in Alaska at 240 would argue against any staying cold in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The pattern looks, to my untrained eye, like a +PNA pattern. To be true, to me that also looks like a pretty fine block in the north Atlantic at 240 on the 12z Euro - has that omega look. Almost looks like a false negative w/ that huge low in the Gulf of Alaska pumping that western ridge. Might be a pattern change. Might not. Could just be the result of that monster storm. Trough definitely looking like it wants to stay east of Hawaii. Edit: Looking more closely, the cold in Alaska at 240 would argue against any staying cold in the East. Yeah, I think you're right about the PNA, but the Atlantic is still in +NAO territory. Until we see -NAO blocking develop I think we will see just some transitory shots of cold in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The 12Z CMC is not as deep as the Euro, still has a cold shot, but not nearly as far south as the Euro. The 12Z Ukie looks like a digging eastern trough as well, the GFS is becoming the outlier. So my confidence in perhaps the coldest shot of the season is increasing, but not very excited about significant snow chances except in the usual mountain spots. Still a lot of uncertainty however. Will be interesting to see if the Euro ensembles go along.... Edit: Euro ensembles now colder, the Op is still an outlier but not as extreme as the 00Z Run. Mean 850 temp in ATL about -5 overnight Monday night/Tuesday AM. You almost sound optimistic, or atleast curious, which must be good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Euro Op actually has 2 cold shots in a true +PNA pattern...one cold shot on day 8 and another on day 10. Euro Ens also has high +PNA values in the 8-10 day period. Gotta get it cold first, then look for a wave to dive in for storminess. GFS on the other hand is very zonal with little cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 356 PM EST Monday Dec 26 2011 Long term /Thursday night through Monday/... On Friday our area is between a departing front off the coast...and an approaching front in the plains. The second front crosses our area early Saturday...with little moisture. A third front reaches the Ohio and Tennessee valleys on Sunday...crossing our area Sunday night. This front has some modest moisture to work...and very small probability of precipitation will be carried with this system. The current temperature forecast for Sunday night is cold enough for winter precipitation in the mountains...and perhaps the NC foothills. Post frontal northwest flow snow is possible at higher elevations in the NC mountains on Monday. Confidence in either winter weather scenario is quite low at this time... an no quantitative precipitation forecast or snow amounts will be forecast with only slight chance probability of precipitation. Temperatures will run above normal until the third front passes on Sunday night...then will decrease to near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 18z gfs HECS, 10 days out of course but definitely the biggest fantasy storm of the season. Also around the time the euro/cmc have a large eastern trough, they just lack a storm to go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 18z gfs HECS, 10 days out of course but definitely the biggest fantasy storm of the season. Also around the time the euro/cmc have a large eastern trough, they just lack a storm to go with it. Nice fantasy storm.. That thing explodes in about a 12-24 hour time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 18z gfs HECS, 10 days out of course but definitely the biggest fantasy storm of the season. Also around the time the euro/cmc have a large eastern trough, they just lack a storm to go with it. Yes the models all see a major PNA/Amp period coming up, but use different s/w and timing to do it. The previous couple of runs of GFS were suspect with its very zonal flow for too long, right now most models and the likelihood is a very deep ridge/trough will begin in around 144 to 180 hours , but the details mean everything as far as storm, location of the trough, and how cold it gets in and behind the trough. The GFS is fluctuating wildly run to run, but has been showing a deep southeast system off and on since a few days ago, and now the ECMWF has a deep trough. Since were entering a new type of pattern (+PNA) and no southwest flow or Bermuda ridge, its hard to have a leaning yet. Atleast it looks to be turning colder, and if the ridging develops at the pole like ECMWF has been doing, we'd get 2 main areas of cold: one in Russia and one in eastern Canada, with a repeat of the cold just after 10 days in the east US. Its just too far out to put any confidence yet though, as the models have tried several times to build a big western ridge that didnt' work out yet. If it does work out though, then I think there would be a massive east coast storm, with major snow involved. I don't know if that includes any of the Southeast though. A quick pumping ridge would send a system diving nearly due south to the Gulf (which fits the pattern of twice this Fall) and with actual cold air likely to be involved, cliff divers would be building igloos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 18z gfs HECS, 10 days out of course but definitely the biggest fantasy storm of the season. Also around the time the euro/cmc have a large eastern trough, they just lack a storm to go with it. That's the kind of storm that would work in a +PNA pattern with a neutral or positive NAO....gotta get it cold first, then we'd need a sustained +PNA pattern in order to get a storm producing wave to dive down into the trough from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Just trying to brighten the mood. Everybody do their snow dance every night before bed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Just trying to brighten the mood. Everybody do their snow dance every night before bed... That image doesn't brighten my mood at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wow anybody look at the GFS looks real interesting coming right into the new year. Looks like it is back on board with shots of cold and maybe a strom brewing. But looks a lot better than earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wow anybody look at the GFS looks real interesting coming right into the new year. Looks like it is back on board with shots of cold and maybe a strom brewing. But looks a lot better than earlier. Give it 4 or 5 or 6 consecutive "good" runs, then maybe, maybe, we're on to something ... but after today's 6Z and 12Z, I'm still trepidatious .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Give it 4 or 5 or 6 consecutive "good" runs, then maybe, maybe, we're on to something ... but after today's 6Z and 12Z, I'm still trepidatious .... Ya i no what you are talking about. But its good the euro seems to be on board possibly. also looks like here in the mountains good get some snow from tomorrow evening into Wed morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yeah, get that low on the 18z to work south into Fla over the next 5 days and we've got something to watch, lol. Nice fantasy storm for sure! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yeah, get that low on the 18z to work south into Fla over the next 5 days and we've got something to watch, lol. Nice fantasy storm for sure! T Ya as far as the week right after New Years it looks pretty interesting to say the least, but i have my doubts. I am not set on anything out longer than a few days but at least the models show some nice pushed of cold air. Also something that would really help out is the AO and NAO appear to go into the neautral to slight negative phase right after the New Year. We will see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Roger Smith is now looking for a pattern change. He lives in Canada so please be aware of that. Sometime around January 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Roger Smith is now looking for a pattern change. He lives in Canada so please be aware of that. Sometime around January 18 Given that his winter outlook has been spot on so far, we should probably take notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Given that his winter outlook has been spot on so far, we should probably take notice. Those are my feelings exactly. I think he was warm-warm-cold for the winter. He's had the mojo for sure. And he is fairly conservative on calling for pattern changes. However, sometimes pattern changes in Canada are not pattern changes in the SE - just didn't want to mislead anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Don't even waste your time looking at the 0z GFS Days 7-10...+PNA goes Poof... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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