SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[Carvers Gap]

I was looking at the MJO(and I know just enough to be dangerous), and am learning more about it. Seems to me that it might have helped negate the La Nina signal last year. Where do we stand w/ it at the moment?

[FoothillsNC]

Still not seeing signs of a colder pattern locking in over the East for more than a couple of days, though it has been cool for sure. You know it's bad when I'm having to look at day 16 on the GFS and say, "Maybe there's a chance." The Climate Prediction Center is making no bones about it being a warm winter in this area. I do think those folks have a warm bias, but I think it goes to show just how much of a mircacle last winter was...and how warm some folks think this winter may get. Almost everything prior to the last winter said we would torch and didn't. This is a second year La Nina and should be cooler, but compared to what - last winter? That's probably not going to happen. Here are some interesting facts that seem to counter my feelings on things. October was the 18th coldest on record at KTRI according to the NWS. November is -0.7 . What's crazy, I would never have guessed that we were below normal until Foothills mentioned it! Frost came later than normal and the days have been truly pleasant. Last fall we were above normal at KTRI for October and November. Seems that we are in a typical La Nina pattern which is a cool fall and early winter, potentially followed by a torch. The one thing that gives me hope is how much rain we have received in E TN and the surrounding regions this fall. Seems like I remember JB saying once that where fall is the wettest, the cold air tends to go during winter. Being a fisherman, I can tell you that the water levels in the Smokies are at very high levels for this date according to those who monitor the rivers, specifically Little River. The NAO and AO 11/18 ensembles are strongly positive. The PNA, as mentioned, may be showing signs of an improving Pacific pattern. December just looks up in the air at this point, but I'm leaning towards slightly above normal for E TN w/ snow being extremely difficult to come by outside of higher elevations. Now next winter...if El Nino comes back, that may be our winter and maybe even the one after as well. So, we bascially have stolen one good winter out of two that looked pretty bad from a forecast standpoint - so I can't complain. On a side not, I don't remember the ski slopes opening in November in the 90's...So that may counter some of thoughts.

Good post. So far its been rather wet here in a good chunk of the Carolinas, unusual for a Nina Fall...and really no end yet in sight to good precip events, so thats very unusual and one of the things to keep watching. One look at the 10 day ECM has still the same basic pattern, its progressive but still very amplified with a lot of deep troughs and cutoffs. I don't know when that pattern will switch as basically we had that last Spring as well, so something is fueling this particular Nina to be much more amplified than usual (and probably wetter in certain parts of the country). I personally like this kind of pattern because I like getting precip and normally the only time for at or above normal rain fall here and most of western SC is with a Nino pattern, but this Nina isn't bad this year. Plus our temps keep on being lower than forecast and the pattern would imply , and we keep getting damming events and a propensity for some troughing in the Southeast when it doesn't really show up on the long range models...all good, subtle signs if you want some hope for atleast some Wintry precip this Winter (and goes against the NOAA outlooks). I still think chances are pretty high that where I painted above normal snow will have it at some point. One of the first wintery type storms could be an unusual suspect situation, like from a cutoff, where theres snow under the core and to the west, with warmth and rain/storms on the east side. That would fit our flow for the last two months. Who knows yet where that first one ends up.

[WidreMann]

Don't look now, but the 06z GFS would imply some pretty cold air in the long range. It shows 850's dropping below 0c at +300 hours and continuing below 0c through the end of the run. At one point we are -10c here. This appears to be due to a +PNA and all that cold air that has been bottled-up in Alaska draining south. No real North Atlantic blocking showing up yet, but this could be the trigger that turns the tide....... As this is the first run to show a solution as deep as this, I would like to see it show up in later runs before jumping on-board........If we could get some blocking to show up at the same time, then it could be very cold. Similar to what Foothills was talking about yesterday............. any thoughts?

My thoughts are that you should stop looking at the long range GFS.

[Gastonwxman]

Quite a contrast between the 12z of the GFS and ECMWF on the Day 10.

GFS:

ECMWF:

[MotoWeatherman]

Quite a contrast between the 12z of the GFS and ECMWF on the Day 10.

GFS:

ECMWF:

Those maps are for two different days. Or am I looking at that one wrong.

[WilkesboroDude]

Those maps are for two different days. Or am I looking at that one wrong.

I was thinking the same thing. Believe it may be off a few days.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

My thoughts are that you should stop looking at the long range GFS.

How long have you been posting with us?.I know you were over on Eastern with us........ Then you should know by now that while the exact solution in the long range never verifies, the global models (GFS and Euro) can be useful at times to sniff out a pattern change. Don't even try to tell me that you never look at the long range models. If it showed a record heat wave, you would be all over it.

[Gastonwxman]

Those maps are for two different days. Or am I looking at that one wrong.

I was thinking the same thing. Believe it may be off a few days.

I usually just go by the date, run (e.g. 12z), and chart type when comparing models. I apologize if the previous statement was incorrect. Model times are a little difficult for me in some occasions.

[Mr Bob]

How long have you been posting with us?.I know you were over on Eastern with us........ Then you should know by now that while the exact solution in the long range never verifies, the global models (GFS and Euro) can be useful at times to sniff out a pattern change. Don't even try to tell me that you never look at the long range models. If it showed a record heat wave, you would be all over it.

The "polar" opposite of a cold GFS day 12 forecast is not a heatwave! We just have an incredible amount of skepticism until the ensemble support shows up in both sets of progs....It would be nice if you would take the time to see if there is support for the operational before just posting it every time it shows the pattern you want. I would enjoy a nice snow as much as anyone else here this winter but would prefer to have some logic behind it before posting about it...

[BullCityWx]

You can go ahead and tack 10 days of extra waiting once they are consistently showing the pattern change because the models are always too quick with these massive reversals.

[SN_Lover]

The 12 and 18 UTC GFS teleconnections shows warm temperatures for thanksgiving, but with temperatures moderating afterwords.

[WidreMann]

How long have you been posting with us?.I know you were over on Eastern with us........ Then you should know by now that while the exact solution in the long range never verifies, the global models (GFS and Euro) can be useful at times to sniff out a pattern change. Don't even try to tell me that you never look at the long range models. If it showed a record heat wave, you would be all over it.

Dude, the long range GFS is worthless. 240 is maybe kind of okay to sniff out patterns in years with well-understood long-term trends (e.g., a strong Nino with a strong westerly QBO and clear SSTA patterns), but 384 is never okay. That's 17 days out. It shouldn't even be run out that far because the model can't make reliable or accurate forecasts out that far. Who cares if once in a while it seems to be correct? At best, it's a fluke. More likely is that the model ends up "right" because there is always a stream of storms moving across the country at somewhat regular intervals, so chances are that there will be a storm on or near the 384 verification date. And in the winter, that might be a winter storm.

[WidreMann]

The 12 UTC GFS teleconnections shows warm temperatures for thanksgiving, but with temperatures moderating afterwords.

These don't show anything about temperatures.

[SN_Lover]

These don't show anything about temperatures.

Yea, they do actually. How do you think climatologists forecast for seasons/months?

PS. I would appreciate it if you provide counter examples, rather than acting like a troll.

[WidreMann]

Yea, they do actually. How do you think climatologists forecast for seasons/months?

PS. I would appreciate it if you provide counter examples, rather than acting like a troll.

A -NAO isn't guaranteed to produce colder temperatures. Depending on its set up, and other factors, we might not get much cold air down here at all. For example, if Canada torches before a -NAO, even if the winds start coming in from the subpolar regions, they won't be cold. A +PNA might support a ridge around the west coast, but there may not be a trough along the east coast. It might be further inland over the midwest or plains, or it might be offshore. Both scenarios could lead to warm weather here. The favorable teleconnections only indicate potential for favorable patterns for cold and snow, at best. They do not correlate directly with temperatures. We should all know this by now.

[SN_Lover]

A -NAO isn't guaranteed to produce colder temperatures. Depending on its set up, and other factors, we might not get much cold air down here at all. For example, if Canada torches before a -NAO, even if the winds start coming in from the subpolar regions, they won't be cold. A +PNA might support a ridge around the west coast, but there may not be a trough along the east coast. It might be further inland over the midwest or plains, or it might be offshore. Both scenarios could lead to warm weather here. The favorable teleconnections only indicate potential for favorable patterns for cold and snow, at best. They do not correlate directly with temperatures. We should all know this by now.

Here is the 18UTC GFS on the 25th ; Here is the 18 UTC GFS for 4th after the AO declines, PNA increases, NAO declines.

Notice that the warm air flowing from the north was not warm.

[burgertime]

Here is the 18UTC GFS on the 25th ; Here is the 18 UTC GFS for 4th after the AO declines, PNA increases, NAO declines.

Notice that the warm air flowing from the north was not warm.

I notice their's been a bit more consistency in the LR with an influx of colder air which TBH is going to happen either way due to climo. However using the 18z 300+ hours doesn't really prove anything. Just saying. Troll or not Widre is giving you a reason for what he's saying . Have this cold air showing up on multiple runs of multiple models within 200 hours and we're in business.

[SN_Lover]

I notice their's been a bit more consistency in the LR with an influx of colder air which TBH is going to happen either way due to climo. However using the 18z 300+ hours doesn't really prove anything. Just saying. Troll or not Widre is giving you a reason for what he's saying . Have this cold air showing up on multiple runs of multiple models within 200 hours and we're in business.

I'm just staying in respect to that each run of forecasting the AO, NAO, and PNA is going to be in relation to temperature to prove a point. I never said in that post that the temperatures were going to be exactly as they were depicted in the pictures. OBVIOUSLY it will fluctuate. I'm just saying to use each run as indicators. As I mentioned before it's all about consistency. That's why I used vague terms such as moderate and warm. Regardless, my forecast for a above average temperature/ below average precipitation winter still remains the same.

[chapelhillwx]

Here is the 18UTC GFS on the 25th ; Here is the 18 UTC GFS for 4th after the AO declines, PNA increases, NAO declines.

Notice that the warm air flowing from the north was not warm.

I may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure one map is at 18z and one map is at 06z... obviously, that would have an effect on temps.

[burgertime]

I may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure one map is at 18z and one map is at 06z... obviously, that would have an effect on temps.

Yep I was going to say the same thing. For like 3 a.m. most of the state being above freezing on Dec. 5th would be pretty warm for most. I mean I know it's saying that cold air is dumping in...but still.

[SN_Lover]

Yep I was going to say the same thing. For like 3 a.m. most of the state being above freezing on Dec. 5th would be pretty warm for most. I mean I know it's saying that cold air is dumping in...but still.

I may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure one map is at 18z and one map is at 06z... obviously, that would have an effect on temps.

Fixed, didn't realize time was different.

[Wow]

This patter is indeed quite similar to last year. CLT 11/10 temp data:

    723140,13881, 20101101,   56.0,24,  39.6,24, 1021.8,24, 9999.9, 0, 10.0,24,   5.6,24,  11.1, 15.0,   73.9 ,  43.0 , 0.00I,999.9, 000000,723140,13881, 20101102,   52.6,24,  35.4,24, 1027.0,24, 9999.9, 0, 10.0,24,   7.2,24,  12.0, 16.9,   64.9 ,  43.0 , 0.00I,999.9, 000000,

723140,13881, 20101103,   49.2,24,  38.4,24, 1021.6,23, 9999.9,0,  10.0,24,   5.4,24,  7.0, 999.9,   61.0 ,  44.1 , 0.00H,999.9, 010000,

723140,13881, 20101104,   52.3,24,  48.1,24, 1005.6,19, 9999.9, 0,  5.5,24,   3.7,24,   8.0, 999.9,  55.9 ,  44.1 , 0.28G,999.9,010000,

723140,13881, 20101105,   46.3,24,  35.4,24, 1005.9,24, 9999.9, 0, 10.0,24,   4.6,24,   9.9, 18.1,   59.0 ,  34.0 , 0.24G,999.9, 010000,

723140,13881, 20101106,   44.5,24,  30.4,24, 1019.4,24, 9999.9, 0, 10.0,24,   5.3,24,  11.1, 15.9,   59.0 ,  34.0 , 0.00G,999.9, 000000,

723140,13881, 20101107,   40.8,24,  24.2,24, 1028.6,24, 9999.9, 0, 10.0,24,   5.0,24,   9.9, 18.1,   54.0 ,  26.1 , 0.00I,999.9, 000000,

723140,13881, 20101108,   47.1,24,  29.0,24, 1019.6,24, 9999.9, 0, 10.0,24,   2.3,24,   7.0, 999.9,  71.1 ,  26.2 , 0.00I,999.9,000000,

723140,13881, 20101109,   57.9,24,  32.5,24, 1014.8,24, 9999.9, 0, 10.0,24,   3.9,24,   8.0, 999.9,  75.2*,  44.6*, 0.00I,999.9,000000,

723140,13881, 20101110,   56.8,24,  34.7,24, 1018.0,24, 9999.9, 0, 10.0,24,   3.2,24,   7.0, 999.9,  75.9 ,  37.9 , 0.00I,999.9,000000,

723140,13881, 20101111,   54.9,24,  38.4,24, 1024.6,24, 9999.9, 0,  9.9,24,   2.9,24,   7.0, 15.0,   73.9 ,  36.0 , 0.00I,999.9, 000000,

723140,13881, 20101112,   52.1,24,  32.3,24, 1028.3,24, 9999.9, 0, 10.0,24,   4.8,24,   9.9, 999.9,  71.1 ,  35.1 , 0.00I,999.9,000000,

723140,13881, 20101113,   47.2,24,  25.8,24, 1024.5,24, 9999.9, 0, 10.0,24,   2.0,24,   4.1, 999.9,  69.1 ,  27.0 , 0.00I,999.9,000000,

723140,13881, 20101114,   49.6,24,  29.1,24, 1018.6,24, 9999.9, 0, 10.0,24,   2.7,24,   9.9, 999.9,  70.0 ,  27.1 , 0.00I,999.9,000000,

723140,13881, 20101115,   53.7,24,  39.5,24, 1015.1,24, 9999.9, 0,  9.1,24,   2.3,24,   6.0, 999.9,  62.6*,  44.6*, 0.00H,999.9,010000,

723140,13881, 20101116,   58.7,24,  52.6,24, 1009.9,22, 9999.9, 0,  8.9,24,   7.4,24,  18.1, 28.0,   64.4*,  53.6*, 0.05D,999.9, 010000,

723140,13881, 20101117,   58.1,24,  41.6,24, 1012.1,24, 9999.9, 0, 10.0,24,   7.6,24,  15.0, 23.9,   64.9 ,  48.0 , 0.00H,999.9, 010010,

723140,13881, 20101118,   47.5,24,  33.0,24, 1021.9,24, 9999.9, 0,  9.9,24,   2.9,24,   6.0, 999.9,  64.9 ,  30.9 , 0.00I,999.9,000000,

723140,13881, 20101119,   47.9,24,  35.2,24, 1025.1,24, 9999.9, 0, 10.0,24,   3.4,24,   8.0, 999.9,  62.1 ,  31.1 , 0.00I,999.9,000000,

723140,13881, 20101120,   51.8,24,  38.8,24, 1026.0,24, 9999.9, 0,  9.6,24,   4.2,24,   7.0, 999.9,  68.0 ,  32.0 , 0.00I,999.9,000000,

723140,13881, 20101121,   53.7,24,  40.9,24, 1027.3,24, 9999.9, 0,  9.4,24,   1.6,24,   5.1, 999.9,  70.0 ,  36.0 , 0.00I,999.9,000000,

723140,13881, 20101122,   56.9,24,  46.1,24, 1027.0,24, 9999.9, 0,  9.6,24,   3.4,24,   8.9, 999.9,  70.0 ,  36.0 , 0.00I,999.9,000000,

723140,13881, 20101123,   60.0,24,  52.4,24, 1020.8,24, 9999.9, 0,  9.3,24,   7.0,24,  14.0, 22.9,   73.0 ,  46.0 , 0.05A,999.9, 010000,

723140,13881, 20101124,   55.6,24,  39.7,24, 1021.2,24, 9999.9, 0,  9.1,24,   3.7,24,   7.0, 999.9,  68.0*,  39.2*, 0.00H,999.9,010000,

723140,13881, 20101125,   51.9,24,  39.4,24, 1019.7,20, 9999.9, 0,  7.8,24,   3.3,24,   8.9, 999.9,  68.0 ,  39.9 , 0.05B,999.9,010000,

723140,13881, 20101126,   57.8,24,  53.2,24, 1010.5,24, 9999.9, 0,  8.6,24,   6.7,24,  23.9, 28.0,   66.0 ,  48.0 , 0.17C,999.9, 010000,

723140,13881, 20101127,   46.0,24,  20.9,24, 1014.3,24, 9999.9, 0, 10.0,24,   5.2,24,   9.9, 15.0,   55.9*,  33.8*, 0.00B,999.9, 000000,

723140,13881, 20101128,   40.4,24,  22.5,24, 1025.2,24, 9999.9, 0, 10.0,24,   5.0,24,   8.9, 15.9,   55.0 ,  28.9 , 0.00I,999.9, 000000,

723140,13881, 20101129,   41.7,24,  27.8,24, 1029.1,24, 9999.9, 0, 10.0,24,   5.4,24,   9.9, 999.9,  51.1 ,  30.2 , 0.00I,999.9,000000,

723140,13881, 20101130,   53.2,24,  47.2,24, 1020.4,20, 9999.9, 0,  7.1,24,   8.9,24,  18.1,  28.9,   66.0 , 33.1 , 0.11G,999.9, 010000,

[WidreMann]

Here is the 18UTC GFS on the 25th ; Here is the 18 UTC GFS for 4th after the AO declines, PNA increases, NAO declines.

Notice that the warm air flowing from the north was not warm.

It's not that cold. It's almost December. Subfreezing temps in the northern plains? Someone call the people at the Guinness Book of World Records! And certainly, it's directly because of the -NAO and has nothing to do with a cold front passing through as part of a transient trough.

Look at the actual pattern below. That trough is going to move on out. The -NAO is there only in a technical sense. There's no real blocking. The Pacific jet is ready to head on in and keep things progressive over the CONUS.

[LithiaWx]

The 12 and 18 UTC GFS teleconnections shows warm temperatures for thanksgiving, but with temperatures moderating afterwords.

Holy molly, that's a raging, nasty +AO... As for Wildre come on man, it's not going to be a torch all winter. This is coming from someone who is predicting a winter that's not conducive to snow and cold. There will be cold shots and the potential for snow eventually this winter. I agree we probably won't see months of -NAO solid blocking but even you have to admit the models are trending towards a better pattern than the worst thing we could see like the pattern from the last month with a raging pacific.... Things are getting better... The pattern we are moving towards is not a 10/10 for east coast snow and cold but it's better than the one we have had. If you can't notice a pattern change then you are trolling dude. The ridging in the Pacific is a start even if we can't dislodge the AK vortex completely for right now... It may not be THE pattern but it's a start...

[FoothillsNC]

Looks like both of the incoming systems over the next 10 days will buckle into a cutoff. The first one likely to our east, the second one...well still a guess, but somewhere from southern Plains , or east ward. That second one will have enough cold air wrapping in (the way it appears now) to produce snow on its west side, and possibly underneath its core as it slowly tracks east/ne. I'd keep an eye on that one at the end of the run.

[WidreMann]

Holy molly, that's a raging, nasty +AO... As for Wildre come on man, it's not going to be a torch all winter. This is coming from someone who is predicting a winter that's not conducive to snow and cold. There will be cold shots and the potential for snow eventually this winter. I agree we probably won't see months of -NAO solid blocking but even you have to admit the models are trending towards a better pattern than the worst thing we could see like the pattern from the last month with a raging pacific.... Things are getting better... The pattern we are moving towards is not a 10/10 for east coast snow and cold but it's better than the one we have had. If you can't notice a pattern change then you are trolling dude. The ridging in the Pacific is a start even if we can't dislodge the AK vortex completely for right now... It may not be THE pattern but it's a start...

Even 01-02 had a cold pattern for a few weeks. There almost always is one. I won't deny that possibility, especially in a Nina year. But that likely won't happen until January or February, when other factors become more favorable.

[SN_Lover]

Even 01-02 had a cold pattern for a few weeks. There almost always is one. I won't deny that possibility, especially in a Nina year. But that likely won't happen until January or February, when other factors become more favorable.

I implore you to look at this thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/29714-negative-nao-coming/ Therefore you get PROFESSIONAL METEOROLOGICAL WISDOM on a possible pattern change.

Also, thanks for being sarcastic like a 15 year old. It shows your maturity. Lastly, since you state your interests to be "Trolling, flamewars, negativity and cynicism" this debate between us is over.

[WidreMann]

I implore you to look at this thread http://www.americanw...ive-nao-coming/ Therefore you get PROFESSIONAL METEOROLOGICAL WISDOM on a possible pattern change.

Also, thanks for being sarcastic like a 15 year old. It shows your maturity. Lastly, since you state your interests to be "Trolling, flamewars, negativity and cynicism" this debate between us is over.

Nothing that thread says is exciting in any way. A potential for a weak and transitory -NAO in the LR? Better go ahead and hoist the WSWs, it's gonna be a doozy.

[BullCityWx]

The NAO index from the 0z OP EC. Not only is the +NAO well established, it strengthens at the end:

Guys, it's ugly right now. If you expect a solid pattern change in at least the next 20+ days, you're fooling yourself. The absolute best case scenario is we're only slightly below normal heading into about DEC 10.

[WidreMann]

QC, we seem to be doing okay at not torching. The numbers will probably come in neutral, at least for the SE, even though the pattern's generally been crappy. I know that'll just be ammunition for the pattern change crowd, alas.