SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[DaculaWeather]

If we get a SSW, which it appears we very well might, things would change suddenly and I don't think any model will pick up on it early. I think that's what makes it so exciting to watch. Great read in the Strat thread.http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30871-stratospheric-warming-event-on-the-way/page__pid__1216811__st__175#entry1216811

[FallsLake]

Granted it doesn't really get to negative territory, it is certainly a step in the right direction for the NAO on the ensembles.

A few years back I read that in most cases the south east needs a lot of things to happen right to get a winter event. But during a small window (Jan & Feb) things don't have to be perfect (i.e. NAO being solidly negative). Neutral may work if we can get other things to work.

[Carvers Gap]

Granted it doesn't really get to negative territory, it is certainly a step in the right direction for the NAO on the ensembles.

I don't disagree. The NAO, especially, is looking better. W/ that sharp of a drop, I wonder if a strong storm might accompany it? It will need an SSW to get it into negative territory for a sustained period IMO.

If we get a SSW, which it appears we very well might, things would change suddenly and I don't think any model will pick up on it early. I think that's what makes it so exciting to watch. Great read in the Strat thread.http://www.americanw...75#entry1216811

That is probably one of the best threads I have read on any site, any topic, any subject. Anyone who posts in that thread better have their chin strap snapped. Like those graphics earlier.

[jburns]

Takes a lot of time to study that. I have only seen that work once. Just like last week when the ring was around the moon. That didn't verify either. I don't follow the old wise tales. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out we are not going to get any snow this month unless we are lucky.

I thought I covered this back in early November.

Top Five Southern Winter Folklore Sayings

1. If you count the morning fogs in August you will know how many August mornings were foggy.

2. A heavy crop of acorns will lead to fatter then average squirrels the next spring.

3. If it thunders in winter, 10 days later it will have happened 10 days ago.

4. If you study the bands of the wooly worm you will know how many are brown and how many are black.

5. Snow that lays on the ground for more than three days is dirty.

[frazdaddy]

You did... add one more. If the ant hills are high in July....you have fire ants

[FoothillsNC]

nothing special on the GFS , except the rain event with the cutoff coming our way Monday night/Tuesday. Could be a cold rain in western Carolinas, with upper 30's at the surface for much of the event and around 1" of rain. Too bad it's not a little colder or stronger damming that could be a big Winter storm. Afterwards, pretty boring look. It does put up a huge western Canada /Eastern Alaska ridge but its hour 384.

[BIG FROSTY]

nothing special on the GFS , except the rain event with the cutoff coming our way Monday night/Tuesday. Could be a cold rain in western Carolinas, with upper 30's at the surface for much of the event and around 1" of rain. Too bad it's not a little colder or stronger damming that could be a big Winter storm. Afterwards, pretty boring look. It does put up a huge western Canada /Eastern Alaska ridge but its hour 384.

You mean it's already taken away my wet snow for Tuesday? That's a surprise. lol

[FoothillsNC]

You mean it's already taken away my wet snow for Tuesday? That's a surprise. lol

yep, that lasted for 6 hours. It never had a shot though. We just don't get cold air in place. Looks like another good rain event though, maybe the last of the year.

[Tacoma]

foothills do you see any light at the end of the tunnel? I come home every day expecting to read where there is something on the horizon but I get so disappointed when I see no one is talking about something on the models. i know this weather is nice but I'll take this in the spring. this is winter so i want cold and snow. THIS IS BORING.

[Tacoma]

i mean they were talking about some snow Christmas night and it didn't take long for that to disappear from the forecast. then there was talk about new years eve and now i don't read anything about that storm either.

[burgertime]

18z has a nice cold look to it in the LR...of course in typical form moisture is nowhere to be found!

[pcbjr]

18z has a nice cold look to it in the LR...of course in typical form moisture is nowhere to be found!

Very long range ....

[FallsLake]

It shows the cold really affecting us around day 9. From what I've been reading most are thinking mid-month. I really hope it's 9 days from now (1st of month) but I wont get excited until it still shows it within day 5 or 6.

[FoothillsNC]

foothills do you see any light at the end of the tunnel? I come home every day expecting to read where there is something on the horizon but I get so disappointed when I see no one is talking about something on the models. i know this weather is nice but I'll take this in the spring. this is winter so i want cold and snow. THIS IS BORING.

not yet. And the longer we put off getting cold air in here, the worse the Spring would probably be, b/c we'll get our cold at some point.

[MountainMarvel]

not yet. And the longer we put off getting cold air in here, the worse the Spring would probably be, b/c we'll get our cold at some point.

Spring came so early this year. Trees were flowering in late February, Our coldest day had been Dec. 15th, and then the days got warmer and warmer. Last snow was January 10th. Take away December last year, and the winter was almost non-existent.

[WeatherNC]

GFS no longer an outlier in the mid-term, unanimous support from the ens, Euro on board too. TN Valley runner on tap for the Mon/Tues timeframe, half-ass Miller B transfer through the OH Valley. After, unsure, we appear to be getting into a period of greater amplification, Robert posted a 12z fantasy range graphic earlier, EC similar around 240, SE ridge no more around the New Year, big time ridging into C AK, likely the result of our strat event working down. Timing and placement correspond nicely, cross polar flow setting up between the 3rd-7th.

Sent from my iPhone 4S

[Met1985]

GFS no longer an outlier in the mid-term, unanimous support from the ens, Euro on board too. TN Valley runner on tap for the Mon/Tues timeframe, half-ass Miller B transfer through the OH Valley. After, unsure, we appear to be getting into a period of greater amplification, Robert posted a 12z fantasy range graphic earlier, EC similar around 240, SE ridge no more around the New Year, big time ridging into C AK, likely the result of our strat event working down. Timing and placement correspond nicely, cross polar flow setting up between the 3rd-7th.

Sent from my iPhone 4S

I was looking at that and it looks like maybe soem snow in the mountains. That would be nive right after Christmas if it verifies. We will see.

[BIG FROSTY]

not yet. And the longer we put off getting cold air in here, the worse the Spring would probably be, b/c we'll get our cold at some point.

+1 Big freeze this spring probably killing everything!

[POWERSTROKE]

yep, if it don't get cold soon it will not be a pretty spring at all. late frost will destroy buds on trees and some shrubs

[Met1985]

yep, if it don't get cold soon it will not be a pretty spring at all. late frost will destroy buds on trees and some shrubs

Ya i remember several years ago one Easter in April we had 8 inches of snow and a low of 15 and killed everything. Took weeks for leaves to come back on trees.

[LithiaWx]

GFS no longer an outlier in the mid-term, unanimous support from the ens, Euro on board too. TN Valley runner on tap for the Mon/Tues timeframe, half-ass Miller B transfer through the OH Valley. After, unsure, we appear to be getting into a period of greater amplification, Robert posted a 12z fantasy range graphic earlier, EC similar around 240, SE ridge no more around the New Year, big time ridging into C AK, likely the result of our strat event working down. Timing and placement correspond nicely, cross polar flow setting up between the 3rd-7th.

Sent from my iPhone 4S

I'm starting to think that in mid-late January we could be feeling the full effects of a pattern change. I like the idea of a fairly quick turn of things after the first week of January. Call me an optimist if you guys want but I think I see the writing on the wall with this one. I have been reading quite a bit on the forums and this is the time frame I keep coming up with based off what mets and other posters are saying all lumped into one neat package. Kind of like a mean with some of my own biases thrown in and some gut feeling tbh. Of course this is just an opinion from an amateur but who knows.

Funny enough it corresponds to roughly the dates I picked in the contest about first widespread snowfall for the southeast thread.

If anyone gets a decent winter in the southeast this year I'm putting my money on the mountains of TN and NC of course. Outside those areas I think this is the season for most of TN and KY. If I had to guess I'd go with January 15th - 17th in this general area which matches the area where I think has the best chance at a decent season.

[POWERSTROKE]

i believe by February we will have had wintry weather. It takes one storm to get our average snowfall. We just have to be patient

[rduwx]

I'm starting to think that in mid-late January we could be feeling the full effects of a pattern change. I like the idea of a fairly quick turn of things after the first week of January. Call me an optimist if you guys want but I think I see the writing on the wall with this one. I have been reading quite a bit on the forums and this is the time frame I keep coming up with based off what mets and other posters are saying all lumped into one neat package. Kind of like a mean with some of my own biases thrown in and some gut feeling tbh. Of course this is just an opinion from an amateur but who knows.

Funny enough it corresponds to roughly the dates I picked in the contest about first widespread snowfall for the southeast thread.

From what I've been seeing on the models and from my reading I like January, 9th to be the start of the colder temps. Hopefully we can have a storm to track not long after that.

[rduwx]

i believe by February we will have had wintry weather. It takes one storm to get our average snowfall. We just have to be patient

Agreed POWERTSTROKE...I really think that we'll have atleast one good snowstorm at some point this winter.

[FoothillsNC]

Spring came so early this year. Trees were flowering in late February, Our coldest day had been Dec. 15th, and then the days got warmer and warmer. Last snow was January 10th. Take away December last year, and the winter was almost non-existent.

But what a ride those 2 months were. It was a solid 8 week stretch of nonstop cold and a couple good snows in there, with several minor events in NC, and 2 majors in much of the Southeast...definitely one of the best Winters of the last 50 years if you generalize for the Southeast as a whole. A few areas missed major snows though, and there's been plenty of years with 3 and 4 times the snow. But overall, a nice cold, wintry Winter.

Ya i remember several years ago one Easter in April we had 8 inches of snow and a low of 15 and killed everything. Took weeks for leaves to come back on trees.

I have pics of that event...if I recall it was Easter weekend of 2008, maybe 2007. After a mild Winter, in April saw the coldest air of the season come down for my area...killed everything dead, leaves on trees, all flowers, some shrubs, etc. It took over 6 weeks to produce leaves again. I'd never seen a time where all the vegetation around a whole region looked like that. Never want to see it again.

i believe by February we will have had wintry weather. It takes one storm to get our average snowfall. We just have to be patient

Could be. The timing might work out that way, if the cold avoids us in most of January. Right now the pattern still reminds me of 86/87 for the year, but of course no two years are exactly alike, but patterns do tend to repeat. If the pattern changes around early to mid Jan, that would put us at the perfect time of year for snow+ice+cold...namely, mid Jan to mid March.

[POWERSTROKE]

But what a ride those 2 months were. It was a solid 8 week stretch of nonstop cold and a couple good snows in there, with several minor events in NC, and 2 majors in much of the Southeast...definitely one of the best Winters of the last 50 years if you generalize for the Southeast as a whole. A few areas missed major snows though, and there's been plenty of years with 3 and 4 times the snow. But overall, a nice cold, wintry Winter.

I have pics of that event...if I recall it was Easter weekend of 2008, maybe 2007. After a mild Winter, in April saw the coldest air of the season come down for my area...killed everything dead, leaves on trees, all flowers, some shrubs, etc. It took over 6 weeks to produce leaves again. I'd never seen a time where all the vegetation around a whole region looked like that. Never want to see it again.

Could be. The timing might work out that way, if the cold avoids us in most of January. Right now the pattern still reminds me of 86/87 for the year, but of course no two years are exactly alike, but patterns do tend to repeat. If the pattern changes around early to mid Jan, that would put us at the perfect time of year for snow+ice+cold...namely, mid Jan to mid March.

Love the way you talk Robert!

[FoothillsNC]

Once again, another major cutoff will open up around Arkansas/West Tennesse and cut toward the Central Appalachians. The system tilts nicely to a very negative/diffluent advection right over the Deep South, and this one will have a good boundary just laid down, so that translates to excellent rain potential in Ga and SC, where it's been missing somewhat. Looks like in-situ cold air damming for north GA and esp. the western Carolinas on late Monday night and through early Tuesday, but no snow or ice here...just cold rains (and hard classic heavy rains it appears for 6 to 8 hours). The setup isn't right for ice in the dam regions, but GFS shows surface and 950 temps in the mid 30's duration of the event fairly common extreme ne GA and western Carolinas into western VA.

On the western side, possible wet snow in Arkansas and into southern Missouri, possibly rotating into western and Middle Tennessee later Tuesday, but it doesn't look that cold aloft, but can't be ruled out since its an upper low. Once the system works into West Virginia, look for a changeover to snow in the mountains of NC/TN with a couple inches possible. All in all, another good system, maybe the best yet for heavy rains in ATL AGS MAC and CAE. I can picture this one with a cold arctic high banana shaped, one in the Northeast and one in the Ohio Valley later on this season.

[Met1985]

i was just looking at the GFS and saw maybe a potential for some snow Tues and i was like wow its not ten days out either. Lookslike something to track. I have noticed that the mid to long range patterns have not been all that consistent. Like you have been saying foothills something may just sneek in and suprise us.

[FoothillsNC]

i was just looking at the GFS and saw maybe a potential for some snow Tues and i was like wow its not ten days out either. Lookslike something to track. I have noticed that the mid to long range patterns have not been all that consistent. Like you have been saying foothills something may just sneek in and suprise us.

yeah, not much leeway on some of these systems..this particular cutoff has been a headache for about a week now, and it still might throw a surprise. If it came in more quickly, or if the next northern stream dug down deeper than progged, then the mtns of NC, esp. the nw Mtns would get a surprise snow but looks a little too warm right now. GFS is very cold at the surface, I'm surprised how cold the 2m temps are around all of western NC during the event, roughly 34 to 36 degrees, and around 33 degrees in Ashe County up into southwest VA, the result of the weakly cold dews just before it arrives. Hardly any room for error there, so hopefully it doesn't trend colder or drier for them. Also, the wet snow chances in Ark, Tn and Mo on the back side of the system, but this barely looks cold enough to support anything. Still cutoffs can be strange weather makers.

There's more in the extended range, of course, and maybe a slight hint of eastern troughing, but thats still a guess. Have no idea where the next major cutoff will occur, this run did it for New England and if i recall one in Texas again at some point. Right now we need to build a major western ridge to get some serious cold to shoot down our way, but unfortunately that doesn't really show up, and I don't trust any of the models that show the setup beyond 7 days because the models have all built false western ridges a few times in Nov and Dec, only to get beaten down quickly... we need to get it within 7 days to have a real shot of that.

[Met1985]

Ya i have been looking at the models and just take anything for more than 5-7 days out with a grain of salt. Seems like all the models have had a real tough time this fall.