Isopycnic Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Surprised nobody is talking about the 18z run of the GFS. I think most are tracking the severe threat.... playbyplay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 Becoming interesting for northern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 18z GFS does show a good bit of precip across the south and a definite CAD look. Surface temps still too warm for anything but rain. But a cold rainy Christmas is still better than sunny and 80 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 18z GFS does show a good bit of precip across the south and a definite CAD look. Surface temps still too warm for anything but rain. But a cold rainy Christmas is still better than sunny and 80 degrees. Yep. Analysis: Without a CATM (Cold Air Transportation Mechanism), we need a CAGM (Cold Air Generation Mechanism), neither of which appear to be present in this setup. Likely outcome: Cold Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Here's a much better map for you in which both of the afore mentioned required elements are present. And the good news is, it's only 324 hours out! The bad news is, the cold air source doesn't really appear to be all that cold: However, this is a great example, graphically, in a real model depiction, of what Foothills has been saying all along. If the source region was a little bit colder in this example, this, in my mind, shows exactly the kind of epic snowstorm that's possible for the SE this year with all of these cutoffs meandering around. This is a great image to go with the thoughts that he has been describing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Becoming interesting for northern NC. Surface temps are too warm for winter precip in the 18Z run around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 GFS definitely getting a smoother phase between the southern shortwave and the northern stream. It seems kinda late for this to change too much but if it can phase like 6 hours sooner this could really pull in some cold air on the backside of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Now showing some measurable snow with rain for Hickory and Rocky Mount on the 26th although it looks like it's bouncing all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxgeek Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Excuse me for being uneducated in this but how do you read the Dacula Weather .com charts and where do the numbers come from?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 Excuse me for being uneducated in this but how do you read the Dacula Weather .com charts and where do the numbers come from?? http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/trend/ This link will help you understand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxgeek Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 excellent, thanks CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Here's a much better map for you in which both of the afore mentioned required elements are present. And the good news is, it's only 324 hours out! The bad news is, the cold air source doesn't really appear to be all that cold: However, this is a great example, graphically, in a real model depiction, of what Foothills has been saying all along. If the source region was a little bit colder in this example, this, in my mind, shows exactly the kind of epic snowstorm that's possible for the SE this year with all of these cutoffs meandering around. This is a great image to go with the thoughts that he has been describing. I agree. This is exactly what he has been saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Could you restate that in layman's terms since no one is saying anything about the 12Z euro? Lol thanks Sorry for the real late reply I just got on and read. Anyway a SSW splits or displaces the polar vortex in northern latitudes and increases the chance of blocking(-AO,-NAO).It does'nt guarantee we'll see blocking you just have to see where everything sets up but you have basically no chance if that huge buzzsaw up there is spinning like a top leading to a raging +AO. I have a few charts saved off the Berlin site of the 08-09 SSW Dacula posted a few pages up,this one is not as strong but it looks similar.Zonal winds diving,flux,temps increasing at 60N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 What is the old saying thunder in winter means snow two weeks later? 00z NAM at 84 has a nice ULL forming out in Texas. This might be something to watch with future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 What is the old saying thunder in winter means snow two weeks later? 00z NAM at 84 has a nice ULL forming out in Texas. This might be something to watch with future runs. I believe it is suppose to snow within 8 days after it thunders in the winter time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Jan 4-5th looks like a credible threat for winter wx in our area. At least we now have a fantasy land storm to start watching!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I believe it is suppose to snow within 8 days after it thunders in the winter time Of course this is not always true, and i believe this will be the case this time. If you think about it the reason that old saying makes some sort of sense is. Usually you have a cold front (with actual cold air) clashing with the warm air and there you have T-Storms develop. So then you're cold air (usually after front passes) and any moisture coming through within a few days can produce wintry weather. BUT this year so far the air is not cold enough behind the fronts to produce cold enough air for winter weather. If we had cold air behind this front tonight, The old saying would probably pan out within 8 days with more moisture on the way next week. Just not a good pattern so far this winter Hopefully it will turn around later in Jan..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 The next one is taking shape in the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 There's some pretty significant blocking developing in the northern lattitudes by the end of the gfs run. If you factor this in w/ the euro hinting at a SSW episode in 10days or so, it would would seem the january 10th area would be a good time to start looking for a much colder pattern to start emerging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 There's some pretty significant blocking developing in the northern lattitudes by the end of the gfs run. If you factor this in w/ the euro hinting at a SSW episode in 10days or so, it would would seem the january 10th area would be a good time to start looking for a much colder pattern to start emerging. I agree. I don't see how you can have such major upper air changes without some drastic changes down below where we're at. I'm pretty excited to see how it's all going to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 There's some pretty significant blocking developing in the northern lattitudes by the end of the gfs run. If you factor this in w/ the euro hinting at a SSW episode in 10days or so, it would would seem the january 10th area would be a good time to start looking for a much colder pattern to start emerging. I noticed this aswell. Hopefully we can keep the storms rolling through once we get some cold in here but knowing our luck it'll turn out to be cold and dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Well well well...hello 6z for parts I-40 west in NC! looks like the ULL kinda jumps to there...granted you want to be on the NW side of it...but it's showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Well well well...hello 6z for parts I-40 west in NC! looks like the ULL kinda jumps to there...granted you want to be on the NW side of it...but it's showing up. I just saw that. Looks interesting to say the least. Might be something might not. The way the models have been so wishy washy who noes. But it is only five days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 We're at least getting something on the radar for the future! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Of course this is not always true, and i believe this will be the case this time. If you think about it the reason that old saying makes some sort of sense is. Usually you have a cold front (with actual cold air) clashing with the warm air and there you have T-Storms develop. So then you're cold air (usually after front passes) and any moisture coming through within a few days can produce wintry weather. BUT this year so far the air is not cold enough behind the fronts to produce cold enough air for winter weather. If we had cold air behind this front tonight, The old saying would probably pan out within 8 days with more moisture on the way next week. Just not a good pattern so far this winter Hopefully it will turn around later in Jan..... Really? No Way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Starting to see signs of two areas of warmth in the stratosphere and a split in the PV at 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Really? No Way Yes really! Just count your days after you hear it it thunder in the winter, And I bet it don't snow within 8 days 90% of the time. Yea once in a while it has to happen because of the pattern, Not some magical tale!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Yes really! Just count your days after you hear it it thunder in the winter, And I bet it don't snow within 8 days 90% of the time. Yea once in a while it has to happen because of the pattern, Not some magical tale!!! Takes a lot of time to study that. I have only seen that work once. Just like last week when the ring was around the moon. That didn't verify either. I don't follow the old wise tales. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out we are not going to get any snow this month unless we are lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Right now, I wouldn't trust any specifics that the models are spitting out. As many, many folks have pointed out...they key on different waves coming in. Depending on which one is emphasized changes sensible weather. As Foothills consistently states, look at the pattern. For the past few days, the models have definitely hinted at a stratosphereic warming event. They can be fickle on many levels such as whether they actually occur and whether the warming gets to the troposphere. I'm w/ Hickorywx, the pattern is looking blocky on the GFS and did yesterday to some extent. I think the GFS is sniffing this out quite early. What will be interesting is to see whether the cold, if it makes it this far south, is actually as cold as advertised. This seems to be one of those winters where, if it gets cold, the temps only return to seasonal norms. I am actually hopeful that this might be the break in the warm pattern that many have looked for. The NAO and AO still look terrible on the CPC site, but the PNA is still staying positive. Like last winter, when the AO and NAO finally recovered, the PNA kept things from getting out of control in terms of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Granted it doesn't really get to negative territory, it is certainly a step in the right direction for the NAO on the ensembles. Right now, I wouldn't trust any specifics that the models are spitting out. As many, many folks have pointed out...they key on different waves coming in. Depending on which one is emphasized changes sensible weather. As Foothills consistently states, look at the pattern. For the past few days, the models have definitely hinted at a stratosphereic warming event. They can be fickle on many levels such as whether they actually occur and whether the warming gets to the troposphere. I'm w/ Hickorywx, the pattern is looking blocky on the GFS and did yesterday to some extent. I think the GFS is sniffing this out quite early. What will be interesting is to see whether the cold, if it makes it this far south, is actually as cold as advertised. This seems to be one of those winters where, if it gets cold, the temps only return to seasonal norms. I am actually hopeful that this might be the break in the warm pattern that many have looked for. The NAO and AO still look terrible on the CPC site, but the PNA is still staying positive. Like last winter, when the AO and NAO finally recovered, the PNA kept things from getting out of control in terms of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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