SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[Pilotwx]

Boy the mood around here is well! lets just say testy. Look Robert, and a lot of other Pro and Non-PRO mets give valuable info that you just don't get by watching your local news or the TWC ( or what ever they call it now) thank the lord they still have Jim C. None and I mean none of them have to post anything here, but as hobbits and people who are passionate about weather they choose to engage in conversations with us mere want to be METS. I can tell you without a doubt you spend a winter on this forum and you will know more about weather than any college course can teach you in the same period of time. AS for me I know some winter weather is coming, it's called averages it cannot stay this warm all winter. I say enjoy the warmth while you can, because the cold weather will come.

[SN_Lover]

No need to beat around the bush. I said it. And I stand by it. No need to twist any models around to come to my way of thinking right now, because I'm not being short-sighted enough to believe that we won't have cold air to eventually come into play. I've never seen a Winter where we didn't get a cold front in here that pulled down 32 degree air, so if it happens this Winter, that 'll be a first. I forecast based off patterns , and indices and put the most emphasis on where I think needs at the time. Its' not always the same. Likewise I go against models when I feel its warranted,and am not constrained to them or have to verify any numbers or charts through them, since I don't have a dog in any fight, and I just forecast for the greatest accuracy I can possibly deliver and if that goes against models, ensemble, verification scores, indices...then oh well. I've done ok (although I'm not a seasonal forecaster). But the pattern clearly has supported numerous cutoffs in the Tenn Valley. Still does. It would be a long shot to think one won't have some cold air to work with at some point, and at some point they come at further south latitudes. But eh, I guess they could all be rain makers through and through. I doubt it though. I'm not wishcasting though. Just calling it as I see it.

I know you are not wish casting. I'm just curious to what in this pattern you see that promotes winter precip for NC for example. So do you think that the warming of the stratosphere will cause a cool down? What makes you think that the cold air will be there for the ULL to be able to work with?

[griteater]

Guys I think we all need a break. Let me say this I'm not a met I'm a Farmer who's lively hood depend on the weather. After reading these post NO ONE knows 100% what going to happen or shall I say when. There are a few people on here when they speak I listen. Weather is all about history and data. The data comes from hisory? Correct? Every day that goes by we make more history. The advances that we have made in forecating are heads and tells better today than years ago. Please quit taking jabs at each other. Most people on here can look at a map and try too figure out whats going to happen. That not to say someone is always going to be correct. Thats what this fourm is for . To discuss the weather. To but ya'lls heads together and try to predict whats going to happen. Does anyone here read the NOAA disco? Sure you do. Is the printed Disco one persons ideas? No! It is talked about with several met within the office and then a general idea is formed and printed. Now in off my soap box. Lets talk. I'm not wish casting I'm here to make a few simple points. First thing is a simple term What goes up must come down. What i mean is look at the US as a whole. Is it as cold in parts of the US as it normaly is? NO not as a whole its not. Now with that said will we see a very cold shot of air ? YES it is coming I promise that. how long will it stay around? Who knows? IMO I think if we dont get a piece of artic air in the next 15-20 days you had better invest in some OJ stock. Why you ask? Because the longer we go without a shot of true artic air the worse it will be when we get it. IMO i think we will remain in this type of pattern for awhile. I do know that these type of patterns make me nervous as heck. It has late, hard , and distructive freeze written all over it!!!!!! As for snow I don't know I think when the cold comes down it will be to cold to snow. I don't know the tect term for it, but when it happens I thing the artic air will suppress the strom track to the deep south. Maybe someone that dosen't norm. get snow will rack up. Just sayin. Please excuss typos as when I get mad I make mistakes. I really enjoy reading the post and i do use the info for more than reading pleasure I rely on it for my every day life. God bless each one of you and Merry Christmas. I'm sure the New Year will bring New weather . Weather it cold and snowy or warm and sunny ENJOY it as every day goes by is another day you cant take back.

Great post! Never can underestimate sound common sense.

[AirNelson39]

Man, guess the euro was a hit tonight...not

[FoothillsNC]

Man, guess the euro was a hit tonight...not

It looked much different from the 12z GFS thats for sure. It say's "not so fast" on the warm up and the drying out period in the Southeast. It has 4 different systems coming through over the next 7 days. One tonight/tomorrow, the Christmas event, then 2 days after Christmas then one about 36 hours later. Overall, it likes to keep troughiness in the Southeast, with quick hitting events. I haven't compared it with other models yet. But the Christmas event sure looks very interesting for the northern mountains of NC, ne TN...close call with snow. And a nice little rain event for the rest of the Southeast between Fl. panhandle and southern Tn. Notice how the temp profile has the zero line at 850 at Detroit, and +4 at Huntsville around the Christmas event? Thats a huge gap, indicative of not much warm advection at that level, so that leaves some room for evap. cooling in the mtns of TN/NC if thats right, but the ECMWF has been very waffly lately. Around day 9 /10 it has another quick amplifying trough in the Tenn. Valley, quick hitting cold behind it, and good rain/severe ahead of it for the Southeast. It's a lot to keep track of and the details are changing every run. Overall, warmish as other models, but with cold enough just at certain times that means a quick surprise could occur around Boone for example Christmas, and if the timing were right on a system at the coast of NC, I wouldn't rule out a flake if one system could amp. enough at the right time.

[DaculaWeather]

It looked much different from the 12z GFS thats for sure. It say's "not so fast" on the warm up and the drying out period in the Southeast. It has 4 different systems coming through over the next 7 days. One tonight/tomorrow, the Christmas event, then 2 days after Christmas then one about 36 hours later. Overall, it likes to keep troughiness in the Southeast, with quick hitting events. I haven't compared it with other models yet. But the Christmas event sure looks very interesting for the northern mountains of NC, ne TN...close call with snow. And a nice little rain event for the rest of the Southeast between Fl. panhandle and southern Tn. Notice how the temp profile has the zero line at 850 at Detroit, and +4 at Huntsville around the Christmas event? Thats a huge gap, indicative of not much warm advection at that level, so that leaves some room for evap. cooling in the mtns of TN/NC if thats right, but the ECMWF has been very waffly lately. Around day 9 /10 it has another quick amplifying trough in the Tenn. Valley, quick hitting cold behind it, and good rain/severe ahead of it for the Southeast. It's a lot to keep track of and the details are changing every run. Overall, warmish as other models, but with cold enough just at certain times that means a quick surprise could occur around Boone for example Christmas, and if the timing were right on a system at the coast of NC, I wouldn't rule out a flake if one system could amp. enough at the right time.

Looks like a couple of the models is showing some wintry mix for Hickory and Rocky Mount on Christmas

[MotoWeatherman]

I know you are not wish casting. I'm just curious to what in this pattern you see that promotes winter precip for NC for example. So do you think that the warming of the stratosphere will cause a cool down? What makes you think that the cold air will be there for the ULL to be able to work with?

He has explained his thoughts over and over and over and in great detail. Just go back and read the threads.

[FoothillsNC]

He has explained is thoughts over and over and over and in great detail. Just go back and read the threads.

Thanks, I sure have, typed volumes lol. I think anybody who reads our forum atleast once a week probably has seen how I felt about this since early November.

[Southern Track]

Thanks, I sure have, typed volumes lol. I think anybody who reads our forum atleast once a week probably has seen how I felt about this since early November.

I don't post much, but I do enjoy the input by people who have the knowledge and I wanted to say I appreciate you taking the time Robert to do so. I agree with ya that I will take an active pattern like we are having(even with no snow) than a zonal flow and nothing going on.

[DaculaWeather]

It the Strat thread, the EP flux is beginning to turn northward. If you look at the 10 hPa temps over 240 hours you'll see definite rotation of the temps around the pole.

Now

240 hours

[lugnuts]

Thanks, I sure have, typed volumes lol. I think anybody who reads our forum atleast once a week probably has seen how I felt about this since early November.

I have probably received over 3 feet of snow ( IN the form of rain)lol...So i will sit patiently and wait for just enough cold air to actually give me my 2 feet of frozen precip....I like my chances to see an all out blizzard the way the pattern is right now...Could be a week from now,a month or even two...Call it wish-casting if you want,but i still like what im seeing...I consider it an honor to read Roberts forecast and look forward to his continued thoughts...

[FoothillsNC]

I have probably received over 3 feet of snow ( IN the form of rain)lol...So i will sit patiently and wait for just enough cold air to actually give me my 2 feet of frozen precip....I like my chances to see an all out blizzard the way the pattern is right now...Could be a week from now,a month or even two...Call it wish-casting if you want,but i still like what im seeing...I consider it an honor to read Roberts forecast and look forward to his continued thoughts...

well thanks, to you and others. I do like the fact we keep getting precip chances, even though its warm. Obviously we will have some cold months and to balance out warm months, that's normal weather to have above and below departures. Overall we're in a pattern of extremes it seems like, with back to back hottest summers and back to back cold winters, and now with the very strong +AO pattern. I don't know when that breaks, but the further north you go, the more warm it is relative to normal overall. We could still have a tendency to go below our relative normals in a +AO pattern here in the Southeast, esp. if we had a split flow and PNA pattern. I'm curious to see if a closed high develops where the current cold has been in northern and western Canada/Alaska..haven't seen on there in a while, and it would be like the pattern to switch regimes there sometime soon..

[Shawn]

I have probably received over 3 feet of snow ( IN the form of rain)lol...So i will sit patiently and wait for just enough cold air to actually give me my 2 feet of frozen precip....I like my chances to see an all out blizzard the way the pattern is right now...Could be a week from now,a month or even two...Call it wish-casting if you want,but i still like what im seeing...I consider it an honor to read Roberts forecast and look forward to his continued thoughts...

Up until the last two years, around here in CAE was usually around 65-70 degrees on Christmas Day. Then a major cool-down especially towards Feb. We've gotten spoiled by the last two Winters. A -NAO is not necessarily required to get a nice quick hitting storm if we have the right setup that Robert's been speaking of. One issue that arises with that though is our ground temps aren't going to be too great without a good arctic outbreak to cool them off before a storm to keep any Wintry precip around when it does fall. I can't remember any year that there wasn't at least ice pellets here in SC at least once in a Winter.

EDIT:

[DaculaWeather]

Looking at the Alaskan GFS model images, the 850's show a parade of lows moving zonally across Alaska.

http://www.daculawea...aska_models.php

[WeatherNC]

Looks like a couple of the models is showing some wintry mix for Hickory and Rocky Mount on Christmas

Thanks for posting this Dacula...

No coastal development, coastal development, well maybe further offshore, no wait, closer, where is the cold air, is there any... Story of the past 4-5 days regarding the Christmas system. Only issue I have with those plots is that precip timing looks to be between 11am - 9pm 12/25 for C & E NC, basing this on the 0z Euro which is actually a pretty good precip event for the east, general 0.5". With that said, it would fall into the RN group. 0z Euro is closer to some winter type than one may think, and when compared to the previous run it has cooled sig here.

I am just going to use the 90hr maps off of wunderground, if anyone wants to check out the time before and after the link is below. (hour 87 has 850's <0C for PGV, northern Coastal Plain looks close)

Precip and slp @ 90hrs, this run is kind of weird in that it forms a weak sec low over SE NC around 93hrs which exits and merges with the primary off of HAT. That warms up the coastal plain's 850's, and my suspicion is that if this feature were absent, 850's would fall more in line with the GFS.

2m temps @ 90hrs, lightest blue shading on the map is surface temps in the 32-39F range

850's @ 90hrs, deeper blue shading is 850's sub 0C, you can also begin to see the affect of the low that forms over SE NC, 3hrs prior 850's are below 0C here

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

[kanc2001]

Up until the last two years, around here in CAE was usually around 65-70 degrees on Christmas Day. Then a major cool-down especially towards Feb. We've gotten spoiled by the last two Winters. A -NAO is not necessarily required to get a nice quick hitting storm if we have the right setup that Robert's been speaking of. One issue that arises with that though is our ground temps aren't going to be too great without a good arctic outbreak to cool them off before a storm to keep any Wintry precip around when it does fall. I can't remember any year that there wasn't at least ice pellets here in SC at least once in a Winter.

EDIT:

was thinking the same thing, I grew up in Columbia, more times than not, I was on the front lawn playing football with my cousins and neighbors on xmas day, a few of those were in shorts and tshirts. This winter is closer to "normal" for us, especially in coastal sc, where snow is a rarity in any winter. Im not worried, for I feel at some point I may see some flakes, if not "oh well". I did not record measurable snow IMBY last winter. This seems like a winter where we have ONE big blockbuster event (ie Jan 2000 or March 1993) but generally it will be a mundane, "average/above average" winter for most of the south in terms of temps, I just wish I could get some more precip down here, its bone dry

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

Found this interseting read .It's from a blobber on Accuweather forum.

I have done some research over the past week or so regarding the AO/NAO. Will one or both turn negative before winter ends? Nobody can say for sure but looking at AO/NAO history since 1950 there has been NO year where both the AO/NAO were negative in June then in July then again in August and then both the AO/NAO turned positive for 6 straight months (September through the following February). BUT one year did come very close. That would be the summer off 2007 leading into the winter of 2007/2008. That year the AO/NAO were negative in the 3 summer months (June, July, August). At that point the NAO went on a 7 consecutive month positive run (September 2007 through March 2008). The AO went on a 6 of 7 month run where the only negative month was November 2007.

So did I learn anything? I think I would have to agree with those who say the AO and / or the NAO can only stretch positive so long before snapping back.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=1480966

If the AO/NAO had been negative up through October or November before both turning positive I would be worried that the positive state could continue through the rest of the winter. But seeing that both were last negative in August (as in average for the month) I think probability and history shows that either or both will snap back to negative in January or February (as in average for the month).

That all being said as I mentioned earlier summer of 2007 going through winter of 2007/2008 did come close to having the AO/NAO negative in the summer months followed by a long streak of positive months.

This is where I did my research:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...ent.ascii.table

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...ent.ascii.table

[nchighcountrywx]

The slaughter of our 2011/2012 winter continues......

Brad Panovich throws in the towel also:

@wxbrad: Going to have to revise my winter forecast, the lack of Blocking & negative NAO is going to keep things toasty around here. #cltwx

[EmersonGA]

Just took a quick peek at the 12z GFS. I didn't see any warmth at all but not much cold either. Most days are mid 40s to mid 50s and I'll take that for awhile. The nights should be cold enough to keep the bugs at bay and the days warm enough to help my winter garden grow.

[Bevo]

I have done some research over the past week or so regarding the AO/NAO. Will one or both turn negative before winter ends? Nobody can say for sure but looking at AO/NAO history since 1950 there has been NO year where both the AO/NAO were negative in June then in July then again in August and then both the AO/NAO turned positive for 6 straight months (September through the following February). BUT one year did come very close. That would be the summer off 2007 leading into the winter of 2007/2008. That year the AO/NAO were negative in the 3 summer months (June, July, August). At that point the NAO went on a 7 consecutive month positive run (September 2007 through March 2008). The AO went on a 6 of 7 month run where the only negative month was November 2007.

I certainly remember the consecutive days of flirting with 80 degrees at GSP in December 2007.

[FoothillsNC]

Just took a quick peek at the 12z GFS. I didn't see any warmth at all but not much cold either. Most days are mid 40s to mid 50s and I'll take that for awhile. The nights should be cold enough to keep the bugs at bay and the days warm enough to help my winter garden grow.

I see some hope in that run. First, there's no sign to digging southwest Cutoffs. As long as they don't reappear, then we should avoid days like today, with strong southwest flow and well above normal warmth. Instead , it remains mostly zonal, with stratified temps and maybe temps holding a smidge above normal most days around here. Then in about a week, it develops briefly negative NAO and maybe blocking just north of Greenland, but there's not a huge sign of that. But the other big news is that it wants to carve out Eastern Trough at times. Thats the alarm bell right there..because without the pesky southwest lows, we'll open the door for the Arctic (or atleast colder air) to move more in our direction instead of the Rockies and western Plains thats been going on for so long now. And I have little doubt at all that one (or several) of the shortwaves will indeed amp up for us, and carve out more major systems, but the only question or doubt in my mind is where they do it. If its the Southwest or southern Rockies again, we'll keep repeating what we have. If its further east...Oh boy! could get fun. Just look how often the west has gone between warmth, then a low hits from the right direction and snow resulted. Same for Tenn. Valley earlier. But I'm not sold on where just yet. ...just a couple good possible signs I'm seeing as we enter January.

[FoothillsNC]

I certainly remember the consecutive days of flirting with 80 degrees at GSP in December 2007.

Hopefully we dont' get any thing resembling 2006 and 2007 around here. That was the worst drought year ever. And snowise, was pretty dismal. I don't see much chance of us heading in the dry department anytime this Winter. Way too active, so I'd rule out the precip section of that analog for sure.

[SN_Lover]

well thanks, to you and others. I do like the fact we keep getting precip chances, even though its warm. Obviously we will have some cold months and to balance out warm months, that's normal weather to have above and below departures. Overall we're in a pattern of extremes it seems like, with back to back hottest summers and back to back cold winters, and now with the very strong +AO pattern. I don't know when that breaks, but the further north you go, the more warm it is relative to normal overall. We could still have a tendency to go below our relative normals in a +AO pattern here in the Southeast, esp. if we had a split flow and PNA pattern. I'm curious to see if a closed high develops where the current cold has been in northern and western Canada/Alaska..haven't seen on there in a while, and it would be like the pattern to switch regimes there sometime soon..

Well I hope you are right, because you seem to put ALOT of confidence in the southeast getting snow this winter. But, I will be shocked if we(NC Piedmont to coastal plain) do. looking back at historically similar teleconnection years.

[griteater]

Last few runs of the GFS Ensemble have some negative 500mb height anomalies in the east with some positive anomalies along the west coast and east of Nova Scotia as we go into the new year. First time I've seen seen that on any of the ensembles

[FoothillsNC]

Well I hope you are right, because you seem to put ALOT of confidence in the southeast getting snow this winter. But, I will be shocked if we(NC Piedmont to coastal plain) do. looking back at historically similar teleconnection years.

Not the whole southeast though. I like the Tenn. Valley first choice as above normal, the western Carolinas into south central/sw Va as second choice, and probably central Miss/nrn LA/Ark as a third choice roughly, but any cutoff could end up doing it, if we keep those things going. But later in the season we may have broader chances with a neg. NAO pattern, and supressed track which is usually a better chance for more folks (like last year). I think when the regime changes is when our first legit chance comes, via a cutoff opening up, but thats a total guess. I just like the odds of eventually getting hit with it in this way - over- active pattern that has been raging for a few months now. I might be wrong, or even have it misplaced as far as my choices go...could easily be central and eastern Carolinas. As far as using teleconnections and historically similar years, it bears little weight to anything other than temps so far...I'm very wet and shouldn't be. Same for north GA and all of Tennessee and western SC. Already I think many outets are missing that aspect of the precip, and have done so for most of this year. Every opportunity it gets to rain here, it does, and that alone is noteworthy considering the recent major turnaround.

edit* also we have a pretty good track record with closed lows /cutoffs in the Winter. Usually, they're not part of the Southeast repertoire, so just looking at the pattern this Fall they're everywhere. Around this area, I can name a lot of cutoffs or upper lows that have done this area extremely well in the snow department...its just that usually they don't come along that often, esp. in the Winter...so we'll see if they continue. If they do, it could become epic in a hurry, but likewise, when the pattern changes up some, those may not come along with it.

[griteater]

The slaughter of our 2011/2012 winter continues......

Brad Panovich throws in the towel also:

@wxbrad: Going to have to revise my winter forecast, the lack of Blocking & negative NAO is going to keep things toasty around here. #cltwx

Horse has left the barn. In my view, you don't get a chance to revise your winter outlook.

[jburns]

Guys I think we all need a break. Let me say this I'm not a met I'm a Farmer who's lively hood depend on the weather. After reading these post NO ONE knows 100% what going to happen or shall I say when. There are a few people on here when they speak I listen. Weather is all about history and data. The data comes from hisory? Correct? Every day that goes by we make more history. The advances that we have made in forecating are heads and tells better today than years ago. Please quit taking jabs at each other. Most people on here can look at a map and try too figure out whats going to happen. That not to say someone is always going to be correct. Thats what this fourm is for . To discuss the weather. To but ya'lls heads together and try to predict whats going to happen. Does anyone here read the NOAA disco? Sure you do. Is the printed Disco one persons ideas? No! It is talked about with several met within the office and then a general idea is formed and printed. Now in off my soap box. Lets talk. I'm not wish casting I'm here to make a few simple points. First thing is a simple term What goes up must come down. What i mean is look at the US as a whole. Is it as cold in parts of the US as it normaly is? NO not as a whole its not. Now with that said will we see a very cold shot of air ? YES it is coming I promise that. how long will it stay around? Who knows? IMO I think if we dont get a piece of artic air in the next 15-20 days you had better invest in some OJ stock. Why you ask? Because the longer we go without a shot of true artic air the worse it will be when we get it. IMO i think we will remain in this type of pattern for awhile. I do know that these type of patterns make me nervous as heck. It has late, hard , and distructive freeze written all over it!!!!!! As for snow I don't know I think when the cold comes down it will be to cold to snow. I don't know the tect term for it, but when it happens I thing the artic air will suppress the strom track to the deep south. Maybe someone that dosen't norm. get snow will rack up. Just sayin. Please excuss typos as when I get mad I make mistakes. I really enjoy reading the post and i do use the info for more than reading pleasure I rely on it for my every day life. God bless each one of you and Merry Christmas. I'm sure the New Year will bring New weather . Weather it cold and snowy or warm and sunny ENJOY it as every day goes by is another day you cant take back.

Nice post. I bolded the sentence I am responding to. I agree that agriculturally this is not a good pattern, especially if it continues into early spring. The warm temps will accelerate the plants and at that point even a normal early spring freeze will have severe implications.

[WeatherNC]

Horse has left the barn. In my view, you don't get a chance to revise your winter outlook.

Agree, long range forecasting is next to impossible, sure there are some who consistently do it better than others, but even they too have years where it did not go according to plan. Seems as though a lot of the pros are jumping ship as we head into the coldest period from a climo perspective. I agree that we are unlikely to see a sustained period of cold as in recent winters, but no two years are alike and trying to determine what will happen in Jan/Feb given what has happened thus far, call me skeptical.

[FallsLake]

Nice post. I bolded the sentence I am responding to. I agree that agriculturally this is not a good pattern, especially if it continues into early spring. The warm temps will accelerate the plants and at that point even a normal early spring freeze will have severe implications.

I worry about when/if the pattern flips that we get very cold in a short time span; like Jan. 1985. That winter was basically warm except for the major mid month outbreak. My uncle lost many of his trees and grape vines. He thinks the initall warm weather that then turned drastically colder (well below zero) did the job. I now have many fruit and nut trees as well as grape vines. Lots of cold air in Asia waiting to cross...

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

_{Surprised nobody is talking about the 18z run of the GFS.}