SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[NC_hailstorm]

Wow!

Some big signals on the ECWMF today concerning a possible SSW..Zonal winds at 1hPa are diving as are the 30 and 10 hPa.Flux and temperatures are increasing.

We'll see how this goes but the biggest jump I've seen yet.Looks very similar to how other SSW's started but I'll wait and see.

[AirNelson39]

Could you restate that in layman's terms since no one is saying anything about the 12Z euro? Lol thanks

Wow!

Some big signals on the ECWMF today concerning a possible SSW..Zonal winds at 1hPa are diving as are the 30 and 10 hPa.Flux and temperatures are increasing.

We'll see how this goes but the biggest jump I've seen yet.Looks very similar to how other SSW's started but I'll wait and see.

[FallsLake]

Maybe a good sign for the NAO. If it does go negative hopefully it can stay negative.

[DaculaWeather]

The stratospheric winds are forecast to slow and possibly reverse. Generally when that happens it can trigger blocking which might possibly mean good things for us. The temps are forecast to rise and winds to slow.

[LithiaWx]

Could you restate that in layman's terms since no one is saying anything about the 12Z euro? Lol thanks

the 12Z OP euro does not bear any good news at the surface for the southeast.

[FoothillsNC]

the 12Z OP euro does not bear any good news at the surface for the southeast.

it looks quite a bit colder than GFS through 10 days. It also holds the southwest low back until Tuesday. Very close call in NC for a start to wintry type precip. I doubt any of the models have a handle on things right now. Too many s/w rippling through the flow in Canada, and some are wanting to dive into the Northeast. And there are strong waves lined up every so many miles straight across the Pacific all the way to Japan. I'd think any one of these could amplify somewhere, already they look to be at alower latitude than what we've been through. Just when I thought we have a shot of drying up next week, this.

[FallsLake]

it looks quite a bit colder than GFS through 10 days. It also holds the southwest low back until Tuesday. Very close call in NC for a start to wintry type precip. I doubt any of the models have a handle on things right now. Too many s/w rippling through the flow in Canada, and some are wanting to dive into the Northeast. And there are strong waves lined up every so many miles straight across the Pacific all the way to Japan. I'd think any one of these could amplify somewhere, already they look to be at alower latitude than what we've been through. Just when I thought we have a shot of drying up next week, this.

I have not looked at the euro but the new 18z NAM seems to agree.

[SN_Lover]

Well I gave the models 2 days to come to a conclusion for these 3 systems. Looks like NC, with the exception of the mountains, are SOL winter precip wise.

With regards to the NAO. Here are the past 4 runs of the GFS ensembles. Notice the NAO mean stays positive.

Here are the past 4 runs of the GFS ensembles and the past 2 runs of the CMC's ensembles. Here is the ensembles of the AO

The ensemble mean for the AO stayes positive on the CMC an GFS. Same with the NAO on the GFS with the exception of the 29th on the 12Z run.

I think if one would go against the trend, then one would only be hypothesizing or wish-casting. I don't see a trend to a winter pattern. And yes, we are in a active pattern. Just because we are in a active pattern does not mean we are going to get snow. Snow requires cold weather, and that is not what the models are trending towards. The notion of "we are in a active pattern, then there MUST be a pattern change coming" is nothing but wish-casting.

[burgertime]

The ensemble mean for the AO stayes positive on the CMC an GFS. Same with the NAO on the GFS with the exception of the 19th on the 12Z run.

I think if one would go against the trend, then one would only be hypothesizing or wish-casting. I don't see a trend to a winter pattern. And yes, we are in a active pattern. Just because we are in a active pattern does not mean we are going to get snow. Snow requires cold weather, and that is not what the models are trending towards. The notion of "we are in a active pattern, then there MUST be a pattern change coming" is nothing but wish-casting.

Who is saying that? What's been said is that since we are in an active pattern if a pattern change does come (to colder air) we have a better chance of getting some snow. So while we may not get 10 chances during the winter we may only get 5 with two of them being blockbusters because the pattern is so active right now. March 2009 taught many you only need one good ULL to reach your average.

[SN_Lover]

Who is saying that? What's been said is that since we are in an active pattern if a pattern change does come (to colder air) we have a better chance of getting some snow. So while we may not get 10 chances during the winter we may only get 5 with two of them being blockbusters because the pattern is so active right now. March 2009 taught many you only need one good ULL to reach your average.

Well i'm no going to name names, but there are a couple people including a met. And yes, we can get snow if a STRONG upper level low forms over said location, but no models support that currently. It would be nice to see that happen, but as of right now it's only wish-casting.

[burgertime]

Do tell...

[FoothillsNC]

Well i'm no going to name names, but there are a couple people including a met. And yes, we can get snow if a STRONG upper level low forms over said location, but no models support that currently. It would be nice to see that happen, but as of right now it's only wish-casting.

No need to beat around the bush. I said it. And I stand by it. No need to twist any models around to come to my way of thinking right now, because I'm not being short-sighted enough to believe that we won't have cold air to eventually come into play. I've never seen a Winter where we didn't get a cold front in here that pulled down 32 degree air, so if it happens this Winter, that 'll be a first. I forecast based off patterns , and indices and put the most emphasis on where I think needs at the time. Its' not always the same. Likewise I go against models when I feel its warranted,and am not constrained to them or have to verify any numbers or charts through them, since I don't have a dog in any fight, and I just forecast for the greatest accuracy I can possibly deliver and if that goes against models, ensemble, verification scores, indices...then oh well. I've done ok (although I'm not a seasonal forecaster). But the pattern clearly has supported numerous cutoffs in the Tenn Valley. Still does. It would be a long shot to think one won't have some cold air to work with at some point, and at some point they come at further south latitudes. But eh, I guess they could all be rain makers through and through. I doubt it though. I'm not wishcasting though. Just calling it as I see it.

[burgertime]

Well i'm no going to name names, but there are a couple people including a met. And yes, we can get snow if a STRONG upper level low forms over said location, but no models support that currently. It would be nice to see that happen, but as of right now it's only wish-casting.

I think the point that the "met" you refuse to name was trying to make was that in this type of flow there is the potential for ULLs and in fact a few models have showed some ULL in the future (00z GFS last night for one)..granted they were not effecting many in the SE region but they were there. So to simply say no models support it is wrong.

[DaculaWeather]

Here are more signs. Look at the temps now and 240 hours. Warmer stratospheric air forcing colder air down.

[Bevo]

Since when did December/early January define how "cold" our winters will be? This is not uncommon for most in the SE. Nothing temp wise is that oddly bent based on the Decembers from 2000 to now (I've not bothered going back farther). I understand that not all of the SE experiences winter the same way, but it's pretty clear that at least for the GSP area, this December has been close to par for temps, and early January doesn't look unfamiliar. For as long as I can remember, the coldest air usually hasn't become consistent until mid/late January into Feb. and early March. The rain is the only thing seeming out of sorts. Now if January 31st arrives and I'm mowing the lawn with no sign of change, I'll be more inclined to agree that something is "abnormal".

[ncjoaquin]

Well i'm no going to name names, but there are a couple people including a met. And yes, we can get snow if a STRONG upper level low forms over said location, but no models support that currently. It would be nice to see that happen, but as of right now it's only wish-casting.

It's wish-casting if someone who has no clue,say for example you, says it. But, when Foothills, who has a multi-year history of excellent predictions, provides an opinion based on the current pattern, it holds considerably more credibility.

[POWERSTROKE]

Do tell...

tell you what Burger I have been watching his videos that last couple of weeks and so far he is all over what we are getting. He said big warm up first part of January for us and cold coming back 3-4 weeks from now. He also said something to could pop up next week in southeast before it gets warm. For a change he as been accurate this winter so far. I am not promoting him so don't everyone start the bashing I am only commenting on what he has said for last 2 weeks.

All I know is it is warm here feels like springtime. I hope it does get cold because if it don't we will pay for it with a late frost killing everything in the spring. I remember 2009, on March 1 we started a new contract and had the pleasure of plowing 8 inches. Nice way to start a contract. Not for them but for us!!! I will take one to two blockbusters over 10 storms any day of the week

[rduwx]

Well i'm no going to name names, but there are a couple people including a met. And yes, we can get snow if a STRONG upper level low forms over said location, but no models support that currently. It would be nice to see that happen, but as of right now it's only wish-casting.

Ok, I'm trying to understand this. Just last week you didn't like it that we were giving JB a hard time. If I remember correctly it was something to do with us needing to respect him because had done the time and was a real met. Now the very next week you are saying one of the mets that posts here (not mentioning the name) is wish-casting. So which is it?

[MillzPirate]

18z just says straight torch to me

[NCSNOW]

Here are more signs. Look at the temps now and 240 hours. Warmer stratospheric air forcing colder air down.

Good point:

It's important to remember "IF" a warmer stratospheric influences the AO by getting it into negative territory or just neutral, it usually takes a couple weeks for this manifest. The evidence that indeed we are headed toward stratospheric warming is what is giving momentum to the potential of a pattern change and not forcasted ensemble/op AO and NAO charts. Those tools will tell the tale when we get a week or two down the road. Bottom line it's the genesis of a possible warming stratosphere that is influencing the chatter/discussion of a possible pattern change.

And a note to Robert: I appreciate your efforts and willingness to go the extra mile and incorporate all the tools at your disposal in forecasting weather for our region. The models aren't gospel no more so than simple pattern recoginition is. I read on here everyday and have for several years now.You do an excellent job of explaining your thoughts and forecast with sound reasoning. Keep up the great work;

[burgertime]

tell you what Burger I have been watching his videos that last couple of weeks and so far he is all over what we are getting. He said big warm up first part of January for us and cold coming back 3-4 weeks from now. He also said something to could pop up next week in southeast before it gets warm. For a change he as been accurate this winter so far. I am not promoting him so don't everyone start the bashing I am only commenting on what he has said for last 2 weeks.

All I know is it is warm here feels like springtime. I hope it does get cold because if it don't we will pay for it with a late frost killing everything in the spring. I remember 2009, on March 1 we started a new contract and had the pleasure of plowing 8 inches. Nice way to start a contract. Not for them but for us!!! I will take one to two blockbusters over 10 storms any day of the week

Sorry that ware more of a tongue in cheek jab at the poster not so much at JB.

[Met1985]

The way the models have been so inconsistent i would not put much stock into the mid to long range currently. Seems like every 12 hours they are completely changing there minds. Just observing the models have been anywhere but close. I like the active pattern, we need the rain anyway but if we are still saying well we could get some blocking at the end of January then it looks like we could lose out this whole winter but hey who noes what will come down the pike! It is only the end of December. But this warm sucks through and through.

[dsaur]

Robert, you were rigfht about me finally getting a change in rain pattern. The last 30+ hours has been night and day different down here. I can't remember the last time a rain event lasted even an hour, beyound just spotty drizzly drops and mist. I've been in rain, or drizzle, with occasional breaks, for going on 33 hours. It has been years since I've been in a southern stream, impulse after impulse, pattern. Last night when the slugs of moisture were coming up from Pensacola way, I knew this was different. I've only got a bit over a half inch, but it as taken over a day of soaking to get it. That is big. Huge! Imagine...I squish when I walk across the yard. Usually the wind behind the front that gave me a tenth, takes it back with hours of it's falling. Down here the rain is forever in the sky, never on the ground for long. This is more like a full on cad with showers amongst the dizzle. As long as the waves keep coming in with an eye on the southern half, we'll finally, finally start to get well.

Folks want to see a pattern change.... start looking at the little things...like the heart of the rain beginning to look south of Atl. after a long, long, very painfully long wait. Think about how much fun it would be for you rain rich, spoiled folks to get your last 5 inchs of rain a tenth at a time, stretched out over months, with the occasional 1/2" thrown in just to twist the knife, lol. You want a pattern change you can belive in, start watching rain stats in the severe drought areas of Ga. and SC. Here's hoping it holds up now, and doesn't revert in a few weeks. I hate drought...I hate drought worse than zrain. T

[wh_adkins01]

Hey guys..I haven't posted very much "2 times", mostly just a reader but over the years I hope I've learned something...I was just looking over 12Z GFS Ens. and I'm seeing alot of opportunity in the mid-long range. The trough looks to slide east around the tail end of Dec/early Jan with several systems jumping out of GOM. I'm not met and I'm sure they're are variables I'm missing but at face value I don't see the current pattern holding up to much longer..I'm open for discussion and correction, thanks.

[jshetley]

If the 18z GFS and the 0Z Nam are right most of the next event for rain reverts back to be an Atlanta and north event and also the leaves the midlands of SC with little if anything. I'm afraid this may be the story of this winter. So close for rain yet so far from it down here.

[POWERSTROKE]

No need to beat around the bush. I said it. And I stand by it. No need to twist any models around to come to my way of thinking right now, because I'm not being short-sighted enough to believe that we won't have cold air to eventually come into play. I've never seen a Winter where we didn't get a cold front in here that pulled down 32 degree air, so if it happens this Winter, that 'll be a first. I forecast based off patterns , and indices and put the most emphasis on where I think needs at the time. Its' not always the same. Likewise I go against models when I feel its warranted,and am not constrained to them or have to verify any numbers or charts through them, since I don't have a dog in any fight, and I just forecast for the greatest accuracy I can possibly deliver and if that goes against models, ensemble, verification scores, indices...then oh well. I've done ok (although I'm not a seasonal forecaster). But the pattern clearly has supported numerous cutoffs in the Tenn Valley. Still does. It would be a long shot to think one won't have some cold air to work with at some point, and at some point they come at further south latitudes. But eh, I guess they could all be rain makers through and through. I doubt it though. I'm not wishcasting though. Just calling it as I see it.

Preach IT Robert!! I agree you do very well in your forecasting. You have helped me make decisions on what to do at work many times. You are a tremendous help

[NavarreDon]

Well i'm no going to name names, but there are a couple people including a met. And yes, we can get snow if a STRONG upper level low forms over said location, but no models support that currently. It would be nice to see that happen, but as of right now it's only wish-casting.

No need to beat around the bush. I said it. And I stand by it. No need to twist any models around to come to my way of thinking right now, because I'm not being short-sighted enough to believe that we won't have cold air to eventually come into play. I've never seen a Winter where we didn't get a cold front in here that pulled down 32 degree air, so if it happens this Winter, that 'll be a first. I forecast based off patterns , and indices and put the most emphasis on where I think needs at the time. Its' not always the same. Likewise I go against models when I feel its warranted,and am not constrained to them or have to verify any numbers or charts through them, since I don't have a dog in any fight, and I just forecast for the greatest accuracy I can possibly deliver and if that goes against models, ensemble, verification scores, indices...then oh well. I've done ok (although I'm not a seasonal forecaster). But the pattern clearly has supported numerous cutoffs in the Tenn Valley. Still does. It would be a long shot to think one won't have some cold air to work with at some point, and at some point they come at further south latitudes. But eh, I guess they could all be rain makers through and through. I doubt it though. I'm not wishcasting though. Just calling it as I see it.

It's wish-casting if someone who has no clue,say for example you, says it. But, when Foothills, who has a multi-year history of excellent predictions, provides an opinion based on the current pattern, it holds considerably more credibility.

Just got home & had to comment on this. I hate the internet sometimes, because it's hard to tell what people are implying. Here are the facts about what I have quoted in bold. A weather forecaster is someone who uses tools, knowledge, & personal experience to complete a forecast vs someone who reads models as their sole basis for a forecast. For the vast majority of us on this board Roberts cred. is second to none as he has many times gone against the grain and been right. Is he perfect?.....no but, I have to say for as many times as he goes out on a limb he rarely falls off. You might want to hit this link & brush up on what weather forecasting entails.

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/philosophy/forecaster/

[BillT]

i limit my posts here because of some of the nonsense...agreed Robert DOES the actual work in making his opinions, a real weatherman as opposed to what in radio we called rip and read, just taking what someone else wrote and reading it off the wire....many weather people today simply spout whatever the models say, as opposed to doing the WORK required to make a forecast.

[POWERSTROKE]

Just got home & had to comment on this. I hate the internet sometimes, because it's hard to tell what people are implying. Here are the facts about what I have quoted in bold. A weather forecaster is someone who uses tools, knowledge, & personal experience to complete a forecast vs someone who reads models as their sole basis for a forecast. For the vast majority of us on this board Roberts cred. is second to none as he has many times gone against the grain and been right. Is he perfect?.....no but, I have to say for as many times as he goes out on a limb he rarely falls off. You might want to hit this link & brush up on what weather forecasting entails.

http://www.theweathe...phy/forecaster/

I agree with you. Great link to

[Joe75]

Guys I think we all need a break. Let me say this I'm not a met I'm a Farmer who's lively hood depend on the weather. After reading these post NO ONE knows 100% what going to happen or shall I say when. There are a few people on here when they speak I listen. Weather is all about history and data. The data comes from hisory? Correct? Every day that goes by we make more history. The advances that we have made in forecating are heads and tells better today than years ago. Please quit taking jabs at each other. Most people on here can look at a map and try too figure out whats going to happen. That not to say someone is always going to be correct. Thats what this fourm is for . To discuss the weather. To but ya'lls heads together and try to predict whats going to happen. Does anyone here read the NOAA disco? Sure you do. Is the printed Disco one persons ideas? No! It is talked about with several met within the office and then a general idea is formed and printed. Now in off my soap box. Lets talk. I'm not wish casting I'm here to make a few simple points. First thing is a simple term What goes up must come down. What i mean is look at the US as a whole. Is it as cold in parts of the US as it normaly is? NO not as a whole its not. Now with that said will we see a very cold shot of air ? YES it is coming I promise that. how long will it stay around? Who knows? IMO I think if we dont get a piece of artic air in the next 15-20 days you had better invest in some OJ stock. Why you ask? Because the longer we go without a shot of true artic air the worse it will be when we get it. IMO i think we will remain in this type of pattern for awhile. I do know that these type of patterns make me nervous as heck. It has late, hard , and distructive freeze written all over it!!!!!! As for snow I don't know I think when the cold comes down it will be to cold to snow. I don't know the tect term for it, but when it happens I thing the artic air will suppress the strom track to the deep south. Maybe someone that dosen't norm. get snow will rack up. Just sayin. Please excuss typos as when I get mad I make mistakes. I really enjoy reading the post and i do use the info for more than reading pleasure I rely on it for my every day life. God bless each one of you and Merry Christmas. I'm sure the New Year will bring New weather . Weather it cold and snowy or warm and sunny ENJOY it as every day goes by is another day you cant take back.