SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[wxgeek]

Thanks Marietta

[burgertime]

18Z looks pretty tame for the southeast, active but all rain for most of us. The interesting thing from this run is a nor'easter with lots of snow verbatim for the NE on New Years Eve, there might be some snow verbatim for parts of the southeast but it's too far out for details and doesn't look all that exciting for us right now but it's way out there in the med-long range, regardless it looks like potent system.. Wouldn't that be cool watching the new years festivities in New York City on live TV with a major snowstorm raging in the background. It's the GFS out to 10 days but it's a fun look regardless and is more fun to talk about than warm, warm, warm....

For WNC it's pretty durn close. SFC temps are still pretty warm but with all that moisture some would probably get lucky....if it even comes close to panning out.

[Cold Rain]

Don't know if I have ever seen a 1019 low put down this much qpf, has the Christmas storm, southern track, not much after.

Lots of rn (0-72 & 72-144) precip panels

Does get much farther than N VA

A 1044 Arctic high sitting over Wisconsin, compliments of St. Nick, sure would be nice.

Doubt we'll see many of those this year.

[franklin NCwx]

We will, some time. For now the cold will continue to build. Don't pull out the gloves and cleats just yet.

A 1044 Arctic high sitting over Wisconsin, compliments of St. Nick, sure would be nice.

Doubt we'll see many of those this year.

[Cold Rain]

We will, some time. For now the cold will continue to build. Don't pull out the gloves and cleats just yet.

I've got the pine tar ready!

I think we'll turn cold at some point. I can't remember a Winter that didn't have any cold periods, though some certainly have been predominately warm. I think Robert is right in the sense that this is the year for a blockbuster SE storm. There's a boatload of energy in the flow. At some point, amplification will take place at the right time. No blocking, 50/50, et al will make it more difficult in terms of needing perfect timing, but I think there will be some chances. Interior areas look more favorable to me, as it seems that the main track has established itself inland for quite some time. The unfortunate thing about late season snows though is the sun angle and the propensity for quick melting. We still have the second half of Jan and all of Feb, though. So we'll see.

[jburns]

you are right. One snow of 8 inches and we have our average in my area

The inverse is also true. Miss that one snow and....well you know.

Latest poll shows golf club leading snow plow by 23%.

[Cold Rain]

The inverse is also true. Miss that one snow and....well you know.

Latest poll shows golf club leading snow plow by 23%.

[POWERSTROKE]

As far as the winter goes, I can remember the 08-09 winter which included the very warm Christmas, i was ready to give then March 1st came. ULLs can be the sneakiest.

Yep we had a nice storm on that one

[dsaur]

I've got the pine tar ready!

I think we'll turn cold at some point. I can't remember a Winter that didn't have any cold periods, though some certainly have been predominately warm. I think Robert is right in the sense that this is the year for a blockbuster SE storm. There's a boatload of energy in the flow. At some point, amplification will take place at the right time. No blocking, 50/50, et al will make it more difficult in terms of needing perfect timing, but I think there will be some chances. Interior areas look more favorable to me, as it seems that the main track has established itself inland for quite some time. The unfortunate thing about late season snows though is the sun angle and the propensity for quick melting. We still have the second half of Jan and all of Feb, though. So we'll see.

Never trust a prediction, or forecast more than a week out, unless it is favorable Me...I'm looking to get well on rain, then pop a great storm after the track gets good and changed. Today is the start. I got rain before everyone else almost, instead of after everyone else. Rain moving right up from Pensacola, instead of dragging in from way, way out in La. The lines standing up, instead of laid out sw to ne, like some staggering drunk, on his way to the sidewalk. That bodes well down the line. Southern energy tracks the gulf, and here comes your high moving down out of Canada, and bridging with another. This is going to be a great winter, at least for me....happy in my fantasy world, lol.

I much, much prefer a year like this, with lots of action, rain every few days, to a perfect setup year. I want more chances, and not necessarily quality. I've seen lots of years with great potential give me squat, but bad years, quality wise, leave me in the dark with sleet in the street, or seven inches of snow melting in the next day's 70's. T

[NCSNOW]

Pretty good Hybird CAD setting up at hour 114 on 0z gfs for Christmas. Surface temp barely above freezing in NC with some decent rainfall rates occuring.

Edit: w/0 a doubt one of the better LR model runs Ive seen this winter. Ai'nt saying much, but has southern slider dusting NC/SC boarder around new years eve and a big fantasy snow for most of ineterior SE 1st week of 2012. Never really gets above normal temp wise in NC, minus a day or 2 of +3. Probably a burp and not a trend we'll see.

[Carvers Gap]

For those of us needing a little "hope." If this were to happen(if), then late January and early February become the window for winter.

HM

Meteorology discussion at its finest.

[FallsLake]

For those of us needing a little "hope." If this were to happen(if), then late January and early February become the window for winter.

HM

Meteorology discussion at its finest.

If we are going to get two-three weeks of "real" winter, this time span would be the best for most of the SE; climatology wise it is the best time. Arctic highs are the strongest which help supress lows to the south. If this was to happen, it would be very likely that a lot of people in the SE would do better than places to the north (i.e. mid-atlantic). Almost sounds like 2000; which I would love.

[FoothillsNC]

Christmas day is looking like a close call on the P-types around the mtns of NC and into VA. But with the highly changeable run to run consistency, it may look totally different at 12z. The 6z was close to White Christmas in the northern Mountains of NC...cold rain in piedmont. And the period beyond has system after system rolling through here.

[HKY_WX]

Some interesting discussion in the SSW thread on the main board. Looking like the AO could be taking a dive in January.

[Psalm 148:8]

Sheesh! Guess the models really are out to lunch....beginning to think they are playing spin the forecast wheel.....yesterday....clear and cool Christmas day and after...now rain chances from now til next Monday....yeck! I really wouldn't mind, but I'm gonna have to buy the dog a canoe for her pen.

[FoothillsNC]

Sheesh! Guess the models really are out to lunch....beginning to think they are playing spin the forecast wheel.....yesterday....clear and cool Christmas day and after...now rain chances from now til next Monday....yeck! I really wouldn't mind, but I'm gonna have to buy the dog a canoe for her pen.

Yep, this has been the theme for weather modeling a while now. they are having major problems in deciding when, where, and how much splitting of the flow occurs upstream. Some runs do it a lot,some don't. Latest GGEM was more quiet, with southern Tex. and La being the graveyard of the next sw system. ECMWF and GFS want it to bring a system through here on Christmas Day, and the ECM another one by midweek (cutoff). But the consistency is terrible. And how far south the northern stream digs over the next few days will determine if there is enough cold for snow in Va and the mtns of NC maybe. I wouldn't bank on it but it could happen. Meanwhile, I'm enjoying every drop of rain we get..even though i kind of want a dry , sunny period. Getting sunshine more than 2 days straight has been a LOT to ask for this month.

[WeatherNC]

I don't even know whether we will see a system in the 24-26th period at this point, GFS ens say the op is an outlier. GGEM also looks pretty blank, not much cooking. 12z NAM cuts off a 2 contour 558 low over N TX Christmas eve. Impossible to get a feel for RN or no RN, just too much variability from run to run and between models. If anything does develop, central VA would likely be the battle ground for precip type issues, excluding maybe a little zr in NW NC at the onset.

[FoothillsNC]

I don't even know whether we will see a system in the 24-26th period at this point, GFS ens say the op is an outlier. GGEM also looks pretty blank, not much cooking. 12z NAM cuts off a 2 contour 558 low over N TX Christmas eve. Impossible to get a feel for RN or no RN, just too much variability from run to run and between models. If anything does develop, central VA would likely be the battle ground for precip type issues, excluding maybe a little zr in NW NC at the onset.

yep and the GGEm and SREF were more cutoff looking the southwest, which actually allows the northern stream to clear us out somewhat in NC. The models are back and forth, so its a crapshoot right now. The GFS out through 42 hours now has a pretty strong western Canada ridge, which allows the Canadian s/w at the lakes to come on down atleast toward the Lakes and Northeast, so they will be cold. Meawhile the southwest system is still there. Will it come out or not is the question.

[WidreMann]

Some interesting discussion in the SSW thread on the main board. Looking like the AO could be taking a dive in January.

Don says, based on the analogs, the SSW won't likely lead to sustained or even interesting blocking.

[LithiaWx]

Don says, based on the analogs, the SSW won't likely lead to sustained or even interesting blocking.

here is what he actually said, much more eloquently than you tried to sum up.

That's the best things have looked for awhile. Hopefully, the modeling won't back down as the possible warming draws nearer.

Also, it should be noted that not every SSW has led to strong, sustained blocking. The December 15, 1998 SSW event led to some blockiness, but the AO+ was still predominant until a February 1999 SSW induced strong, sustained blocking culminating in a cold March in the eastern half of the U.S. (except northern New England, which was impacted by the above normal height anomalies associated with the blocking).

Since 1958, there have been three SSWs that have occurred during predominant strong AO+ regimes and AO+ months: January 31, 1973, February 21, 1989, and December 15, 1998. The SSWs did not lead to strong, sustained blocking. However, the AO Index was lower, overall, during the succeeding month. The sample size is small, but might suggest that an SSW might weaken but not reverse the current regime of predominant AO+ values. If so, January could wind up closer to normal in terms of temperature anomalies than December in the East, even if readings are still milder than normal. That would be consistent with some of the AO analogs that saw January wind up the coolest month relative to normal during the winter.

At present, it remains to be seen if an SSW will unfold. Many winters don't see them. If there is an SSW, it will be interesting to see the impact especially if the AO spikes as is currently indicated on the GFS ensembles.

In any case, the mild pattern in the East looks likely to continue into the New Year.

[DaculaWeather]

Christmas day is looking like a close call on the P-types around the mtns of NC and into VA. But with the highly changeable run to run consistency, it may look totally different at 12z. The 6z was close to White Christmas in the northern Mountains of NC...cold rain in piedmont. And the period beyond has system after system rolling through here.

P-Type for Hickory. Things at least starting to show up in the domain for a few of the models.

http://www.daculawea...omogram_hky.php

Here's the master page for P-Types: http://www.daculaweather.com/nomogram_master.php

[burgertime]

12z says light rain on Christmas then has the 3rd system OTS off of the Florida coast...then a period of nice sunny days. Looks like Robert got his wish

[FoothillsNC]

looks like the rain returns on GFS just in time for Christmas in the Southeast. There might be some damming. Not all of the sw system is ejected and the gFS pulls the rest of it out next week, pretty far south so that GA and FL is in the rain. Otherwise, warming up with zonal flow next week, so we may dry out some with a lack of southwest cutoffs for a while. But the models seem to always be missing a shortwave that dives into the US from somewhere. Still for cold air, it looks bleak for a while.

[WidreMann]

here is what he actually said, much more eloquently than you tried to sum up.

Transient blocking is better than no blocking. He's right that it's the best things have looked in a while. But the "best" is hardly great and Don goes on to explain that in the very same post.

[superjames1992]

I'm dreaming of a cold, rainy Christmas............

[packbacker]

Transient blocking is better than no blocking. He's right that it's the best things have looked in a while. But the "best" is hardly great and Don goes on to explain that in the very same post.

Just posted this in that thread....

I believe January 2009 had a SSW, it was a "weak" La Nina, January average moderate AO and than February the AO averaged negative. Not sure what this December AO is going to average but it probably will be stronger than Jan 2009, but at least there is some hope.

[Cold Rain]

Transient blocking is better than no blocking. He's right that it's the best things have looked in a while. But the "best" is hardly great and Don goes on to explain that in the very same post.

To add to your point, Don presents evidence to suggest that the SSW, if it occurs, may not drive the AO into a negative state, though it would likely reduce the positive state somewhat. However, he does admit that his sample size of analogue years is very small (3, if I remember correctly), which does add more uncertainty to the outcome...again, should a SSW occur.

Statistical analysis is intriguing in that it gives you a sense of what is likely to occur or not occur. However, there is so much about the operation of the atmosphere that is unknown to us that even when the probabilities are high or low of something occurring, there is still a very real possibility that the result can go in a wildly different direction, especially when the dataset of your premise is small. There's more than enough happening (that we largely measure as chaos) that should provide us with hope in even the bleakest of forecasts.

[DixieBlizzard]

To add to your point, Don presents evidence to suggest that the SSW, if it occurs, may not drive the AO into a negative state, though it would likely reduce the positive state somewhat. However, he does admit that his sample size of analogue years is very small (3, if I remember correctly), which does add more uncertainty to the outcome...again, should a SSW occur.

Statistical analysis is intriguing in that it gives you a sense of what is likely to occur or not occur. However, there is so much about the operation of the atmosphere that is unknown to us that even when the probabilities are high or low of something occurring, there is still a very real possibility that the result can go in a wildly different direction, especially when the dataset of your premise is small. There's more than enough happening (that we largely measure as chaos) that should provide us with hope in even the bleakest of forecasts.

Not to belay the point because, if I understand correctly, Don was simply pointing out 3 instances in which SSW does not equate to a negative AO. The more predominant "analog" for this type of stratospheric warming is to produce a negative AO or at least serve to neutralize a strongly positive AO. I could be reading that wrong but that's just the way I understood it.

[FoothillsNC]

There's more than enough happening (that we largely measure as chaos) that should provide us with hope in even the bleakest of forecasts.

True. I was just looking over the stats around here. Oct was -2 on temps, Nov was barely above, and Dec is going to be well above, no doubt about that now. Already +3.6 on temps. And with later next week looking zonal and +8 at 850, we may soar into the 60's a lot, unless ECMWF comes in with way different look. Either way, we've had about 2 months of above normal, and mostly co-incided with +AO. I don't recall a winter with 5 straight months of +AO, but I haven't looked , I do remember the 2006 to early 2009 period as basically no winters here. But lately we've swung to the opposite, with quite a stretch of cold and stormy winters. Who knows if the AO switches, if it does though, we could see things change in a mighty fast hurry for later January and especially February. I just hope the rains continue (but am lookng forward to a drying out next week).

[dsaur]

looks like the rain returns on GFS just in time for Christmas in the Southeast. There might be some damming. Not all of the sw system is ejected and the gFS pulls the rest of it out next week, pretty far south so that GA and FL is in the rain. Otherwise, warming up with zonal flow next week, so we may dry out some with a lack of southwest cutoffs for a while. But the models seem to always be missing a shortwave that dives into the US from somewhere. Still for cold air, it looks bleak for a while.

Bring it on! I can handle the heat as long as I'm getting rain. I'm up to a half inch so far now, with another batch a few counties away, and more on the maps. Suits me just fine for now! As long as it isn't 70 on Christmas day, I'd love a rainy one. And then snow on the 29th Tony