MADDOGG Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The problem with Widre's King of Pessimism schtick is that, given that most of the time it does NOT snow in the South, he's right most of the time. Unfortunately for him, he will never experience the joy of correctly calling for snow, because that will never happen. Having said all that, there is no way on God's green earth we are going to see snow out of this pattern. i wouldnt go that far, anything that can happen- will.. i just love watching all the twist and turns along the way. will we see snow? yes, it will snow this year. might not be what most of us want but we will have chances. this year could have been alot better. put all these stroms with last years cold. one day we will have our snow till then we just wait O almost forgot if we dont see SNOW then t-storm season will be right around the corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 i wouldnt go that far, anything that can happen- will.. i just love watching all the twist and turns along the way. will we see snow? yes, it will snow this year. might not be what most of us want but we will have chances. this year could have been alot better. put all these stroms with last years cold. one day we will have our snow till then we just wait O almost forgot if we dont see SNOW then t-storm season will be right around the corner Agree, it is a non-zero chance, just happy to have something to track after a sustained drought, even if that means I wake up Christmas morning expecting RN the day after... 18z GFS, unimpressed with the earlier panels, thought maybe a 3rd system take-away, but I will take this @ 153hrs and run to 0z... Edit: this would imply a phase Timed about perfect 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 A little surprised to see the bolded below.........should I be? Maybe someone can explain the factors in this thinking to me? AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 341 PM EST MON DEC 19 2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST MON DEC 19 2011/ LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED... AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT BRIEF BREAKS FROM THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN DISTURBANCES... BUT STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH LONG TERM MODELS HAVING TIMING DIFFERENCES. HAVE KEPT POPS IN FOR EACH DAY EXCEPT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS GFS SHOWS SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO NORTH GEORGIA DURING DAYTIME HEATING. THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SUGGESTING ALL PRECIP WILL BE IN FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. AVIATION... /ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON DEC 19 2011/ 18Z UPDATE... SMALL PATCH OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTH. SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH BUT LIFT TO LOW VFR HEIGHTS AND THEN THIN TO SCATTERED THROUGH 22Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW VFR CEILINGS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z MOST AREAS...LOWERING INTO THE MVFR RANGE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH 00Z...GENERALLY 7KT OR LESS...THEN TREND BACK TO SOUTHEAST AT 4KT OR LESS BY 02-06Z. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Wow! Gfs close to a big hit! How long before it comes too far west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 definitely like the looks of the 18z, however theres probably <5% chance of that exact scenario playing out... I'm sure it will get the MA and NE folks involved a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Just because temps could avg above normal this winter doesn't mean this winter is going to be a wash. We are still going to have our cold shots and if one of those cold shots meets up w/ some moisture in a very active flow, then we have ourselves a snowstorm. Allan's update above about changing his winter forecast to warmer is something that he has to do for energy clients. That doesn't mean no snowstorms for the SE. I don't want to speak for Allan but I would think he would agree w/ this. We have had winters in the past that have averaged above normal, that I consider good winters because of the storms we had. My main point in this is don't give up on winter yet, it just might surprise you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Much better at 500h this run. Less positive tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Robert, you should get paid for being a therapist, because you are constantly talking alot of us down off of the ledge after we just looked at the latest model runs so far this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 People keep talking about the west bias of the GFS but the new upgrade was supposed to help take care of this bias...and this winter it seems to be the case. The GFS has been good with the placement of systems. We have seen a few trend west but the GFS IMO has picked up on it a good 3 days or so out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Robert, you should get paid for being a therapist, because you are constantly talking alot of us down off of the ledge after we just looked at the latest model runs so far this year... I'm gonna be in therapy myself soon. Anyway, the models are telling us something for Monday. Both major globals have been in that ballpark a while now, but it could still change since its nearly a week away. If it doesn't trend west, then the eastern and maybe central sections would have the best shot of mixing enough cold and moisture. I never like that setup for my area because there is a lag when cold comes across the chain, it takes a while, and by then moisture is gone. But it can meet up with the moisture further east. So I think eastern NC has a slightl better shot at snow from that event than here. One thing that still has a shot , is a cutoff. That would change everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Man , I am roooooting yall on to get some winter weather down there. Just hasn't been that kind of a pattern. I am well below my snow avg right now as well. Maybe yall can borrow some from SE CO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Well as some of us have been thinking, one of these systems were bound to provide something of interest and this event just may do it. I'd be more excited if this were 2-3 days out instead of around a week but just the fact that we have something to track that could bring snow to places that haven't seen it yet is good enough and much better than waiting around for a threat to show up in the medium to long range. This would fit the idea that assuming we can get these systems to continue to appear and track through the Southern states, there would be more opportunities out there that may be in the offing, and this would definitely be exciting if we had blocking but that's for another topic. Right now I am eager to see what the 0z runs will be like tonight as this is the first time I have actually became a bit excited for such a potential threat, not to mention that for once this isn't something at the Day 10 or beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I guess I'm the opposite of 99% on this whole forum, and I actually see the threat of substantial snowfall in the Southeast as having been increased this year, versus a normal, runofthemill one. We have an inordinate number of systems to track. Most will drop rain, but with so many draws, we'll pull a winner eventually. Its' just shear numbers. So far they favor Tenn Valley but eventually the track shifts more south. As for cold, no sustained cold, or warm in this pattern. We may be averaging "above normal" though for a while. Above all, your attitude and manner in posting is second to none. It's an honor to be able to read your well-though-out posts. If we have no snow this year, I will still have enjoyed the ride. Your optimism is contagious and refreshing after reading the posts of those who just love to complain. Thanks again for taking the time to hang out here and share your thoughts. I've gleaned a ton of knowledge by reading your explanatory forecasts. On a side note, I'm headed to Florida this Friday for a week of vacation. I'm really hoping I don't miss out on any excitement while I'm gone, but I hate to begrudge the rest of you that possibility of wintry fun. I've told my wife I might have to drive back early if there's any chance of "fun and games!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Above all, your attitude and manner in posting is second to none. It's an honor to be able to read your well-though-out posts. If we have no snow this year, I will still have enjoyed the ride. Your optimism is contagious and refreshing after reading the posts of those who just love to complain. Thanks again for taking the time to hang out here and share your thoughts. I've gleaned a ton of knowledge by reading your explanatory forecasts. On a side note, I'm headed to Florida this Friday for a week of vacation. I'm really hoping I don't miss out on any excitement while I'm gone, but I hate to begrudge the rest of you that possibility of wintry fun. I've told my wife I might have to drive back early if there's any chance of "fun and games!" i second that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 On a side note, I'm headed to Florida this Friday for a week of vacation. I'm really hoping I don't miss out on any excitement while I'm gone, but I hate to begrudge the rest of you that possibility of wintry fun. I've told my wife I might have to drive back early if there's any chance of "fun and games!" We're leaving the day after Christmas for Sarasota for 5 days. I better not miss a thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 18Z DGEX just jumped ship snow wise. Not going to look at models until Wednesday. Hopefully things will start to clear up by then. From what I can gather so far, wildremann is right about the pattern not being favorable thus far. The pattern might not be favorable for some time as Allan Huffman said earlier today -> "Beyond this, I have officially changed my winter forecast to a warmer one. I updated this forecast for my energy clients this morning. There is no blocking and really no sign of it as of now through early January. It is still possible some will emerge for mid to late winter, but this I looking like a warm winter. The current ensembles show a +AO/NAO, +EPO, and –PNA pattern for early January which is a warm one if it develops." **quote updated** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Not me. The AO/NAO status will change at some point this winter, but even without it, you'd have to be nuts to assume that one of these strong cutoffs doesnt' perform for us. If we lost that pattern, I'd worry about not getting any snow, but fortunately its been around all Fall and most likely will continue atleast a few more weeks. Actually it was around beginning last Spring and only weakened over the Summer due to it , well being Summer. Its back with a vengance, as it usually is with Ninas, just not quite this active. We continue stepping down and stepping down with the cold and flirts with Winter storms on the models. I think here's where folks are led astray-- the models won't show you a snowstorm verbatim, accurately in this pattern. Its too loaded with systems, but once again I point out whats going on. We've had 2 or 3 strong cutoffs go through the Tenn Valley and Upper South and Appalachians, there were a couple very strong , long lived ones in the Ohio Valley during the early Fall, we have one going on now (blizzard Ks/Ok), and we have several strong waves , one of which might cutoff, in the next 7 or 8 days. People are living and dying with model runs. That's not good forecasting. And it's no reason to write off a good Winter storm. The writing is on the wall and its crystal clear. A major upper low with cold, yes actual cold air will arrive this winter and work in perfect tandem with one of these cutoffs, and will drop a foot of snow in part of the South. Just because the models "look" otherwise for as far as they can see (which, lets be honest, isn't that far if you're shooting for accuracy), doesn't mean no snow. I guess I'm the opposite of 99% on this whole forum, and I actually see the threat of substantial snowfall in the Southeast as having been increased this year, versus a normal, runofthemill one. We have an inordinate number of systems to track. Most will drop rain, but with so many draws, we'll pull a winner eventually. Its' just shear numbers. So far they favor Tenn Valley but eventually the track shifts more south. As for cold, no sustained cold, or warm in this pattern. We may be averaging "above normal" though for a while. Great post. I have not been in here very long but you always make great post and have a great attitude! Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Great post. I have not been in here very long but you always make great post and have a great attitude! Thanks. thanks for the nice words everybody, I just view this year as having more opportunities since we're so active. Usually a Winter for us is either totally dominated by one stream at a time..we go dry and cold with northwest flow, or we have zonal or southerly flow with either lake cutters or el nino southern jet. Neither pattern is good for us unless we have many other factors lined up too, thats why snow in the south is as rare as it is. Last year was pretty good for most, mostly because of the strong blocking for 2 months, and we had plenty of cold. But, we didn't have many storms. Both Dec and Jan weren't that wet at all, melted down, esp. in the Carolinas. We didn't have systems to watch for every 5 to 7 days but more like every 10 to 15 days ( I know Dec. was clipper time though). This particular year, atleast so far I'd give more weight to the volume of systems in the flow, versus using traditional indices that most are using. Plus a couple other things, like the tendency for damming (quite a few already) and I'm considering the fact that most Winters, almost all of them, have a period of cold, and usually some blocking. I still expect that to be the case later on. There's no guarantee we'll get into a really cold pattern, but with so much unusually cold bottled up North in Siberia and Canada, its hard to imagine it not coming down , especially in this pattern that has a tendency to amp up to the extreme. So I think the chances for a memorable arctic outbreak are up there , pretty high, as well as our chances for a deep snowfall at some point (not necessarily same time). I've seen and lived through this very type of pattern before. Hot Summer, wet fall, warm Nov+Dec only to see things switch dramatically. So far, no signs on the AO/NAO yet, but it would be unusual to run a strong +AO for more than 4 consec. months. A change at mid January even later in the month would come at primo timing for the Southeast, and fits a notoriously stormy month of February and early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 0z GFS has a wet Christmas Eve for many on here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 0z gfs says Rudolph better know how to swim or he's gonna drown when he lands IMBY Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 lol of course 00z is bringing in what looks to be colder air for Monday and our low is going to be nowhere to be found! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Precip nowhere to be found on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I'll take the cold 00z is giving with the moisture 18z had. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 00z has what looks to be flurries around the coastal areas of NC and northern SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Trough comes in faster and more progressive this run...keeping precip along the immediate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 0z gfs says Rudolph better know how to swim or he's gonna drown when he lands IMBY Christmas Eve. Lots of energy coming down into a long wave that is a little deeper than 18z through 144, looks like a phase, maybe a little later. Getting inside day 6, ens are a train wreck, but if the 3rd system holds, I would expect the other 0z globals to trend toward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Yep, the energy phases later this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 0z GFS has a wet Christmas Eve for many on here... Precip nowhere to be found on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 My second post was referring to the storm system with the wintry possibility on the 27th. Sorry if that was misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Lots of energy coming down into a long wave that is a little deeper than 18z through 144, looks like a phase, maybe a little later. Getting inside day 6, ens are a train wreck, but if the 3rd system holds, I would expect the other 0z globals to trend toward. Yep I thought we had a shot then at 150 evrything just took off. Oh well I check back in the a.m., need some z's 5;00 will be here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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