superjames1992 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The clique is the one focusing on precip. Especially snow. The GFS has been handling the track of lows better lately. The Euro has by far and away the best temperature verification over the last year. Well, last 10 years... Seriously, it depends on your forecast goal. Great that you notice the strengths and weaknesses of the models. Temperature is my main concern. Of course I like a good snow or severe event too. That is an interesting point about the GFS handling the tracks of low pressures better. Feel free to show your evidence....Stories are great....I have plenty myself which is why I preface many things with anecdotally speaking.... Didn't the Euro butcher the track of the Christmas storm last year? I am not trying to deny that the Euro is, in general, a superior model. Verification scores prove this. I just hate when people (non-meteorologists) trash the GFS with little to no basis for it just because it is the "GooFuS". The GFS tends to usually have the 2nd or 3rd best verification scores from what I have seen (and sometimes it even tops the Euro). One can't live and die with every run of the European. The Euro is certainly best in the long and medium range, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 (Post related to NC, SC, FL,GA) Studied historical teleconnections and ENSO and Solar Cycles more in depth tonight. The sample of winters I picked, had conditions similar to this upcoming winter. As I compared them to the 2009-2010 winter for prospective, The sample of winters appeared to be drier and warmer than the 2009-2010 winter. 1967-1968 was one of the three winters I choose. That Winter had three out of four major teleconnections that were similar to this upcoming winter. Also, the winter is 1967-1968, had a similar ENSO pattern and had similar solar factors to this upcoming winter.. (Notice: This was compared to 2009-2010 winter, not a 30 year average) Precipitation difference (1967-1966 Left, 2009-2010 Right) Temperature difference (1967-1968 Left, 2009-2010 Right) If images don't show here they are at the bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 GFS/Euro/GGEM verbatim would be well....let's just say potentially problems of today's/yesterday's variety if moisture flow off the Gulf becomes more favorable by next weekend. Although that cut-off low/short wave advancing east prior to it could certainly limit those capabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Looks like the 0z Euro is also picking up on the trough around the same time as the GFS except it's slightly further east and a little stronger during the Day 10 period on the 500mb charts. Wish I could see what the Euro does next beyond this point and see if it attempts to show something of similar fashion to the GFS afterwards. GFS: Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 GFS has been consistently trending stronger with the H5 trough over the past couple of days, those setups + moisture would be GGEM has a bomb sub-980 mb across the GL region at around the same time period. Fred has expressed some concern over this for next weekend: http://www.talkweath...nksgiving-week/ Although it is highly important to note that the shortwave progged to pass across the country mid week and then cut/close off the East Coast would likely kill svr potential and also noteworthy snow potential as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Didn't the Euro butcher the track of the Christmas storm last year? I am not trying to deny that the Euro is, in general, a superior model. Verification scores prove this. I just hate when people (non-meteorologists) trash the GFS with little to no basis for it just because it is the "GooFuS". The GFS tends to usually have the 2nd or 3rd best verification scores from what I have seen (and sometimes it even tops the Euro). One can't live and die with every run of the European. The Euro is certainly best in the long and medium range, though. It actually sniffed it out and locked on around 6 days out or so and never looked back. The problem was that it had it really bombing out with totals for most of NC/SC in like 20 inches of snow. It really nailed the track just made it too powerful. IIRC anyways. I posted one of the links to the first tracking thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I don't know if it's the models or the local mets around here reading the models, but it seems the amount of precip in their forecast has really been underdone a lot this year compared to the amount we actually get around my area. Maybe the good thing is if it keeps happening into winter we might end up getting more snow than thought when we get a winter storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 What in the world did the 0z Euro try to pull here on t-giving day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 GFS: Euro: Well, that certainly looks volatile. Will be interesting to see if we will see a lowers plains snowstorm for just after Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 What in the world did the 0z Euro try to pull here on t-giving day? Haven't paid for access to SV maps yet (holding off till December), but from what I've read it seems the Euro is saying possibly winter weather for mainly northern and Western NC and the MA correct? Should be interesting to see what the 12z has to say I'm guessing it will go POOF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 12z GFS is showing some crazy solutions in the 12-16 day time. I know that's fantasy at this point but hopefully this is indicative of the impending pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 12z GFS is showing some crazy solutions in the 12-16 day time. I know that's fantasy at this point but hopefully this is indicative of the impending pattern change. Yea I just commented on that in the other thread. Very strange indeed out past 200 hours. That storm at the end is the typical GFS wet dream for December where you know climo says NO but the GFS is trying to hook you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Yea I just commented on that in the other thread. Very strange indeed out past 200 hours. That storm at the end is the typical GFS wet dream for December where you know climo says NO but the GFS is trying to hook you. But you know that each one of us will be looking at the next model runs to see if that wet dream is still there....we're hooked before it even shows anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Yes sir! But you know that each one of us will be looking at the next model runs to see if that wet dream is still there....we're hooked before it even shows anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Very true! The clique is to trash whichever model calls a storm a few times in a row and doesn't verify. Hehe, rather that be the NAM, GFS or the Euro all seem to be "garbage" when a storm busts. I've wondered why spaghetti plots aren't used more around here for long range. Is it because I'm confused and they aren't used for LR forecasting? Or is it just many don't have access to them? Spaghetti plots are useful for lows and precip probability forecasting. The usual ensemble presentation is a blend of all the ensemble members smoothed out; great for temperature trends, but worthless for storm tracks. Spaghetti breaks it down so one can see the individual members. Different storm track scenarios are presented, and they can be very different. Helps one appreciate the operational is not gospel, but, it is not trash either if considered with other ensemble members. Somewhat reliable link: http://www.esrl.noaa...es/ens/ens.html Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Very true! Spaghetti plots are useful for lows and precip probability forecasting. The usual ensemble presentation is a blend of all the ensemble members smoothed out; great for temperature trends, but worthless for storm tracks. Spaghetti breaks it down so one can see the individual members. Different storm track scenarios are presented, and they can be very different. Helps one appreciate the operational is not gospel, but, it is not trash either if considered with other ensemble members. Somewhat reliable link: http://www.esrl.noaa...es/ens/ens.html Enjoy! Thanks for the info! For some reason I had thought spaghetti plots were for the tracks of the storm for each ens member or something. Guess that's why I should leave it to the pros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 (Post related to NC, SC, FL,GA) Studied historical teleconnections and ENSO and Solar Cycles more in depth tonight. The sample of winters I picked, had conditions similar to this upcoming winter. As I compared them to the 2009-2010 winter for prospective, The sample of winters appeared to be drier and warmer than the 2009-2010 winter. 1967-1968 was one of the three winters I choose. That Winter had three out of four major teleconnections that were similar to this upcoming winter. Also, the winter is 1967-1968, had a similar ENSO pattern and had similar solar factors to this upcoming winter.. (Notice: This was compared to 2009-2010 winter, not a 30 year average) Precipitation difference (1967-1966 Left, 2009-2010 Right) Temperature difference (1967-1968 Left, 2009-2010 Right) If images don't show here they are at the bottom My thoughts are starting to be confirmed by the CPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 But you know that each one of us will be looking at the next model runs to see if that wet dream is still there....we're hooked before it even shows anything... And what do you know...gone faster than Charlie Sheen's 8ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Euro weeklies showing very warm right through mid December...Once again though, not necessarily a bad thing for snow mongers since you dont want all your cold weather in the least favored climo period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 My thoughts are starting to be confirmed by the CPC. They might very well be correct. However, do I remember hearing in the past that they weight those outlooks heavily on ENSO with little reguard for any other signals? I believe last years winter forcast was very similar. Again, not saying they won't be dead on, just wondering what they base it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 You are right all along. The plots are literally 500mb heights, but one can deduce approximate tracks from there. Enjoy! Thanks for the info! For some reason I had thought spaghetti plots were for the tracks of the storm for each ens member or something. Guess that's why I should leave it to the pros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 They might very well be correct. However, do I remember hearing in the past that they weight those outlooks heavily on ENSO with little reguard for any other signals? I believe last years winter forcast was very similar. Again, not saying they won't be dead on, just wondering what they base it on. Yes, but this year the teleconnections are different than last year. I don't know how the CPC came to their conclusion, but i weighed each of the teleconnections and ENSO the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 My thoughts are starting to be confirmed by the CPC. Dang that's a blow torch. Agrees with my concern for this winter. Hope it's wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Dang that's a blow torch. Agrees with my concern for this winter. Hope it's wrong! Well, if it's not going to snow, I'd rather the temps be above normal than below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Dang that's a blow torch. Agrees with my concern for this winter. Hope it's wrong! Pure typical Nina map there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Pure typical Nina map there. +1 That's what they always go with, (what's typical) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Is there a reason why the entire southeast is forecast to be above normal but the southern half of FL is forecast to be near normal ? With a La Nina, wouldn't FL also experience above normal temps ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolinaCrusher2000 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 High Latitude Blocking is the key to this year winter weather. When the blocking begins you can throw that map in the trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Still not seeing signs of a colder pattern locking in over the East for more than a couple of days, though it has been cool for sure. You know it's bad when I'm having to look at day 16 on the GFS and say, "Maybe there's a chance." The Climate Prediction Center is making no bones about it being a warm winter in this area. I do think those folks have a warm bias, but I think it goes to show just how much of a mircacle last winter was...and how warm some folks think this winter may get. Almost everything prior to the last winter said we would torch and didn't. This is a second year La Nina and should be cooler, but compared to what - last winter? That's probably not going to happen. Here are some interesting facts that seem to counter my feelings on things. October was the 18th coldest on record at KTRI according to the NWS. November is -0.7 . What's crazy, I would never have guessed that we were below normal until Foothills mentioned it! Frost came later than normal and the days have been truly pleasant. Last fall we were above normal at KTRI for October and November. Seems that we are in a typical La Nina pattern which is a cool fall and early winter, potentially followed by a torch. The one thing that gives me hope is how much rain we have received in E TN and the surrounding regions this fall. Seems like I remember JB saying once that where fall is the wettest, the cold air tends to go during winter. Being a fisherman, I can tell you that the water levels in the Smokies are at very high levels for this date according to those who monitor the rivers, specifically Little River. The NAO and AO 11/18 ensembles are strongly positive. The PNA, as mentioned, may be showing signs of an improving Pacific pattern. December just looks up in the air at this point, but I'm leaning towards slightly above normal for E TN w/ snow being extremely difficult to come by outside of higher elevations. Now next winter...if El Nino comes back, that may be our winter and maybe even the one after as well. So, we bascially have stolen one good winter out of two that looked pretty bad from a forecast standpoint - so I can't complain. On a side not, I don't remember the ski slopes opening in November in the 90's...So that may counter some of thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 19, 2011 Author Share Posted November 19, 2011 Don't look now, but the 06z GFS would imply some pretty cold air in the long range. It shows 850's dropping below 0c at +300 hours and continuing below 0c through the end of the run. At one point we are -10c here. This appears to be due to a +PNA and all that cold air that has been bottled-up in Alaska draining south. No real North Atlantic blocking showing up yet, but this could be the trigger that turns the tide....... As this is the first run to show a solution as deep as this, I would like to see it show up in later runs before jumping on-board........If we could get some blocking to show up at the same time, then it could be very cold. Similar to what Foothills was talking about yesterday............. any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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