SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[dsaur]

Which rain event are we looking at?

Well, goofy has been putting down a stalled front, then forming up a low long it, and maybe another. so rain chances through a week or so. Larry is suggesting the Doc says I'll get about an inch thru Christmas. So we are looking at maybe 2 or 4 events? And as Burger says, slim pickings from each down this way...which has been the norm for years now. T

[WeatherNC]

Any thoughts on what RaleighWX wrote?

I have officially changed my winter forecast to a warmer one. I updated this forecast for my energy clients this morning. There is no blocking and really no sign of it as of now through early January. It is still possible some will emerge for mid to late winter, but this I looking like a warm winter. The current ensembles show a +AO/NAO, +EPO, and –PNA pattern for early January which is a warm one if it develops.

About sums it up, period around Christmas has a little potential, after that, sleds can be safely packed at-least until the second half of Jan.

[Brick Tamland]

About sums it up, period around Christmas has a little potential, after that, sleds can be safely packed at-least until the second half of Jan.

I guess I'll get to play more basketball outside at lunch this winter.

[SN_Lover]

This may be kinda of late, but the 6Z DGEX puts a low of 996mb low off the coast of NC. It brings down more cold air, don't know if I agree with that yet. But the precip with it looks somewhat realistic. It would be nice to see the global models trend toward this solution, or find a median.

[LithiaWx]

This may be kinda of late, but the 6Z DGEX puts a low of 996mb low off the coast of NC. It brings down more cold air, don't know if I agree with that yet. But the precip with it looks somewhat realistic. It would be nice to see the global models trend toward this solution, or find a median.

Global models trending towards the DGEX?

[weatherheels]

So it's looking like a few chances for rain, followed by seasonably cold air for a day or two, and back to playing golf. The Pac-jets looking strong, too strong for us to get any ridging out west. To be honest, i'd rather the pattern be like this than extremely cold and dry. It's really annoying when you have a couple of the ingredients you need to produce a winter storm, but it never comes together. At least in this pattern, most things aren't right so theres really no reason to get the hopes up. With that being said. . . I'd love to just see some flurries the day after Xmas.

[WeatherNC]

Global models trending towards the DGEX?

Doubt it, don't really see anything trending one direction or another yet, still a high amount of uncertainty with varying solutions depending on where you look. GFS ensembles are a wreck, as I imagine the ECMWF's will be. Models are having a very difficult time determining which wave to key in on. Impossible to say at this range which one is right...

144

168

[pcbjr]

^

Regardless - none of the models and none of the ensemble members seem to hint at any "cold" in the SE. :~(

[wxgeek]

Looking like the only cold we will see on a sustaining basis in the SE is "Ice tea"

[MillzPirate]

with the way this winter looks I'd be happy to get the inch of snow the GFS gives us and say thank you very much

[wxgeek]

What is the consensus of the warming of the stratosphere in here? Many are touting that it is

based on physics, but are the stratosphere warming forecasts not based on models too?

[lugnuts]

This is pathetic. Just because there's a weak low pressure around the SE coast does not mean that there will be anything resembling snow flying outside the mountains (if even there). The temperatures are god-awful warm. No model shows air anywhere near cold enough to even be talking about mixing, let alone snow that any one of us would care about. Until we get a real pattern change, it's going to be just rain. You guys are going to go insane analyzing the details of the 200 hour GFS.

To WidreMann:

NOT SO FAST MY EVIL TWIN BROTHER!!!...HUHA HA HA HA!!!!!!!...I've got the snowhounds rounded up, and I'm loading the artic sled now!! albeit, it may take me a few weeks to get there, but take note!!

Signed....SnowWidreMann

[packbacker]

Hopefully this winter will be a 2008/2009 redux, although it was cold early part of January 2009 we didn't get any winter weather until end of January. I believe there was a stratospheric warming in early January 2009 too. I fail to see in this pattern how anyone outside of the mountains will get snow, we would have to get the perfect track of a close low going super south, which is highly unlikely. I still think the mountains got a couple of changes in the next 10 days, hopefully they can get something.

[MADDOGG]

Huh? Why do you guys try to justify this kind of garbage? These discussions are not meteorologically sound. On a weather board, we should aim for meteorologically sound discussions, especially from the red-taggers, who should know better.

hmm maybe becasue alot of ppl here are not met's and there4 most explain it where we can understand it.. ..i love seeing the discussion about all possibilities. No matter wht the chances are things happend and very quick. the models do not know all out comes which can be learned everyday by turning on your local weather channel and see how wrong they really are most of the time

[beanskip]

The problem with Widre's King of Pessimism schtick is that, given that most of the time it does NOT snow in the South, he's right most of the time. Unfortunately for him, he will never experience the joy of correctly calling for snow, because that will never happen.

Having said all that, there is no way on God's green earth we are going to see snow out of this pattern.

hmm maybe becasue alot of ppl here are not met's and there4 most explain it where we can understand it.. this dont seem like the place for you..i love seeing the discussion about all possibilities. No matter wht the chances are things happend and very quick. the models do not know all out comes which can be learned everyday by turning on your local weather channel and see how wrong they really are most of the time

[nchighcountrywx]

We are now considering writing off the later part of January into mid February also. So what's left after that?

[POWERSTROKE]

The problem with Widre's King of Pessimism schtick is that, given that most of the time it does NOT snow in the South, he's right most of the time. Unfortunately for him, he will never experience the joy of correctly calling for snow, because that will never happen.

Having said all that, there is no way on God's green earth we are going to see snow out of this pattern.

as I posted earlier if you ignore pests they generally go away. Some feed off making some upset with the remarks they make. just ignore it and move on

[pcbjr]

We are now considering writing off the later part of January into mid February also. So what's left after that?

Fishing season ...

[magpiemaniac]

We are now considering writing off the later part of January into mid February also. So what's left after that?

Winter 2012-13?

[buckeyefan1]

Goofy still has me with a total of about 1.5" of rain falling on Christmas Eve and the day after Christmas

[franklin NCwx]

We are now considering writing off the later part of January into mid February also. So what's left after that?

We are? Where does this come from?

[FoothillsNC]

We are now considering writing off the later part of January into mid February also. So what's left after that?

Not me. The AO/NAO status will change at some point this winter, but even without it, you'd have to be nuts to assume that one of these strong cutoffs doesnt' perform for us. If we lost that pattern, I'd worry about not getting any snow, but fortunately its been around all Fall and most likely will continue atleast a few more weeks. Actually it was around beginning last Spring and only weakened over the Summer due to it , well being Summer. Its back with a vengance, as it usually is with Ninas, just not quite this active.

We continue stepping down and stepping down with the cold and flirts with Winter storms on the models. I think here's where folks are led astray-- the models won't show you a snowstorm verbatim, accurately in this pattern. Its too loaded with systems, but once again I point out whats going on. We've had 2 or 3 strong cutoffs go through the Tenn Valley and Upper South and Appalachians, there were a couple very strong , long lived ones in the Ohio Valley during the early Fall, we have one going on now (blizzard Ks/Ok), and we have several strong waves , one of which might cutoff, in the next 7 or 8 days. People are living and dying with model runs. That's not good forecasting. And it's no reason to write off a good Winter storm. The writing is on the wall and its crystal clear. A major upper low with cold, yes actual cold air will arrive this winter and work in perfect tandem with one of these cutoffs, and will drop a foot of snow in part of the South. Just because the models "look" otherwise for as far as they can see (which, lets be honest, isn't that far if you're shooting for accuracy), doesn't mean no snow. I guess I'm the opposite of 99% on this whole forum, and I actually see the threat of substantial snowfall in the Southeast as having been increased this year, versus a normal, runofthemill one. We have an inordinate number of systems to track. Most will drop rain, but with so many draws, we'll pull a winner eventually. Its' just shear numbers. So far they favor Tenn Valley but eventually the track shifts more south. As for cold, no sustained cold, or warm in this pattern. We may be averaging "above normal" though for a while.

[NavarreDon]

Good long term afd write up by, imho, the best met at gsp.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE. THU NIGHT THROUGH

SAT A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST

STATES...ACTIVATING A FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC

STATES. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WRN STATES WITH A

TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES OF

PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION.

THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND

GFS BOTH GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PCPN OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING

THE NIGHT. I HAVE AROUND AN INCH OF QPF IN THE GRIDS...WITH

CONSIDERABLY LESS OUTSIDE THE MTNS. THICKNESSES AND SFC WET BULBS

ARE WELL INTO THE LIQUID PCPN RANGE AND IT LOOKS TO BE AN ALL RAIN

EVENT. THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THOUGH

THE LLVL FRONTAL BAND MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT ACTIVE UNDER STRONG

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE LOW CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN

RETAINED THROUGH THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK UNSETTLED. A STRONG SHORT

WAVE WILL EJECT ACROSS THE MID-WEST STATES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY

NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUE TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE

TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE EJECTING WAVE AND THE SUBSEQUENT

DOWNSTREAM UPPER DIFFLUENCE. THE MORE DIFFLUENT ECMWF DEVELOPS QUITE

A BIT OF PCPN OVER THE FA LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE OLD

RUN WAS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THIS. THE GFS HAS MORE DOWNSTREAM

CONFLUENCE AND THUS DOES NOT DEVELOP MUCH PCPN OVER THE FA SATURDAY

OR CHRISTMAS DAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AT THIS

TIME...THOUGH I CONTINUE TO THINK THAT WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY

MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...AND ERN CONUS CONFLUENCE TYPICAL OF A LA

NINA WINTER...THAT THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS ARE LESS LIKELY TO

VERIFY. THERE IS A LITTLE SNOW IN THE MTNS BEHIND THE WAVE SATURDAY

NIGHT...THOUGH THIS IS ALSO NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE PART OF THE

FORECAST.

FINALLY...THERE IS A THIRD SYSTEM THAT THE GFS MOVES UP THE SE COAST

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE E COAST. HPC

HAS GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION...SO I DO HAVE SOME DAY 7 POPS. BEING ON

THE COLD SIDE OF THE TROUGH...THIS INCLUDES SNOW CHANCES OVER THE

MTNS. THE ECMWF HAS PERSISTENTLY BEEN DRY ON MONDAY...THOUGH THE

LATEST RUN DOES ACTIVATE A FRONT BAND CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN

PREVIOUS RUNS.

-- End Changed Discussion --

LONG TERM...MCAVOY

[WeatherNC]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

302 PM EST MON DEC 19 2011

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE

PORTION OF THE FORECAST... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER SYSTEM

(OR TWO) TO TRACK ALONG THE WAVERING FRONT ACROSS THE REGION

SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... WE MAYBE ON

THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FAIRLY STRONG

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S AS A NORTHERN STREAM

TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS HIGH

IS NOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO OUR AREA... ALLOWING A SHALLOW LAYER

OF COOL/COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...

WE WOULD SEE TEMPS FALL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSH BACK

SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS STILL QUITE LOW. THUS... WILL

TREND THIS PART OF THE EXTEND TOWARDS HPC. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS

FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

HIGHS AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND... WILL BE GREATLY

DEPENDED ON THE THE TIMING OF HARD TO TIME IMPULSES AND PLACEMENT OF

THE FRONT. EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE SOME LULLS IN THE PRECIP. HOWEVER...

AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMMING TYPE

SETUP... WILL GO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 40S NW TO THE 50S SE ON

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY LOWER IF WE GET A

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH THIS SETUP). THE GOOD NEWS IS WE DO NOT

EXPECT ANY P-TYPE ISSUES OVER THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH THE

POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT WHICH IS

EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE THEN. THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY

LOOKS TO BE STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING

OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE POOR

TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW OFFSHORE WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...

WILL ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR RAIN ON MONDAY... WITH

MUCH COOLER TEMPS... IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS.

LONG TERM...BSD

[Isopycnic]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

302 PM EST MON DEC 19 2011

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE

PORTION OF THE FORECAST... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER SYSTEM

(OR TWO) TO TRACK ALONG THE WAVERING FRONT ACROSS THE REGION

SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... WE MAYBE ON

THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THIS SYSTEM AS A FAIRLY STRONG

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S AS A NORTHERN STREAM

TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS HIGH

IS NOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO OUR AREA... ALLOWING A SHALLOW LAYER

OF COOL/COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...

WE WOULD SEE TEMPS FALL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSH BACK

SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS STILL QUITE LOW. THUS... WILL

TREND THIS PART OF THE EXTEND TOWARDS HPC. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS

FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

HIGHS AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND... WILL BE GREATLY

DEPENDED ON THE THE TIMING OF HARD TO TIME IMPULSES AND PLACEMENT OF

THE FRONT. EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE SOME LULLS IN THE PRECIP. HOWEVER...

AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMMING TYPE

SETUP... WILL GO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 40S NW TO THE 50S SE ON

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY LOWER IF WE GET A

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH THIS SETUP). THE GOOD NEWS IS WE DO NOT

EXPECT ANY P-TYPE ISSUES OVER THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH THE

POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT WHICH IS

EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE THEN. THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY

LOOKS TO BE STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING

OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE POOR

TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW OFFSHORE WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...

WILL ONLY GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR RAIN ON MONDAY... WITH

MUCH COOLER TEMPS... IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS.

LONG TERM...BSD

I'm so glad i will be in Florida.

[kanc2001]

We are now considering writing off the later part of January into mid February also. So what's left after that?

nothing, golf season is great down here this "winter"

[packbacker]

Interesting read I found reading about stratospheric warming Dacula was pointing out.

http://meteorology.blog.wku.edu/2011/12/17/long-term-pattern-change-due-to-stratospheric-warming-may-be-coming-in-jan/

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

Not me. The AO/NAO status will change at some point this winter, but even without it, you'd have to be nuts to assume that one of these strong cutoffs doesnt' perform for us. If we lost that pattern, I'd worry about not getting any snow, but fortunately its been around all Fall and most likely will continue atleast a few more weeks. Actually it was around beginning last Spring and only weakened over the Summer due to it , well being Summer. Its back with a vengance, as it usually is with Ninas, just not quite this active.

We continue stepping down and stepping down with the cold and flirts with Winter storms on the models. I think here's where folks are led astray-- the models won't show you a snowstorm verbatim, accurately in this pattern. Its too loaded with systems, but once again I point out whats going on. We've had 2 or 3 strong cutoffs go through the Tenn Valley and Upper South and Appalachians, there were a couple very strong , long lived ones in the Ohio Valley during the early Fall, we have one going on now (blizzard Ks/Ok), and we have several strong waves , one of which might cutoff, in the next 7 or 8 days. People are living and dying with model runs. That's not good forecasting. And it's no reason to write off a good Winter storm. The writing is on the wall and its crystal clear. A major upper low with cold, yes actual cold air will arrive this winter and work in perfect tandem with one of these cutoffs, and will drop a foot of snow in part of the South. Just because the models "look" otherwise for as far as they can see (which, lets be honest, isn't that far if you're shooting for accuracy), doesn't mean no snow. I guess I'm the opposite of 99% on this whole forum, and I actually see the threat of substantial snowfall in the Southeast as having been increased this year, versus a normal, runofthemill one. We have an inordinate number of systems to track. Most will drop rain, but with so many draws, we'll pull a winner eventually. Its' just shear numbers. So far they favor Tenn Valley but eventually the track shifts more south. As for cold, no sustained cold, or warm in this pattern. We may be averaging "above normal" though for a while.

Got a question and a thought.on the NAO/OA.First the question is when the NOA/AO goes negative how long before we see the results cold snow?Also i'm beginning to believe the we won't have alot of notice on the pattern change maybe like a week or less.

[Psalm 148:8]

Not me. The AO/NAO status will change at some point this winter, but even without it, you'd have to be nuts to assume that one of these strong cutoffs doesnt' perform for us. If we lost that pattern, I'd worry about not getting any snow, but fortunately its been around all Fall and most likely will continue atleast a few more weeks. Actually it was around beginning last Spring and only weakened over the Summer due to it , well being Summer. Its back with a vengance, as it usually is with Ninas, just not quite this active.

We continue stepping down and stepping down with the cold and flirts with Winter storms on the models. I think here's where folks are led astray-- the models won't show you a snowstorm verbatim, accurately in this pattern. Its too loaded with systems, but once again I point out whats going on. We've had 2 or 3 strong cutoffs go through the Tenn Valley and Upper South and Appalachians, there were a couple very strong , long lived ones in the Ohio Valley during the early Fall, we have one going on now (blizzard Ks/Ok), and we have several strong waves , one of which might cutoff, in the next 7 or 8 days. People are living and dying with model runs. That's not good forecasting. And it's no reason to write off a good Winter storm. The writing is on the wall and its crystal clear. A major upper low with cold, yes actual cold air will arrive this winter and work in perfect tandem with one of these cutoffs, and will drop a foot of snow in part of the South. Just because the models "look" otherwise for as far as they can see (which, lets be honest, isn't that far if you're shooting for accuracy), doesn't mean no snow. I guess I'm the opposite of 99% on this whole forum, and I actually see the threat of substantial snowfall in the Southeast as having been increased this year, versus a normal, runofthemill one. We have an inordinate number of systems to track. Most will drop rain, but with so many draws, we'll pull a winner eventually. Its' just shear numbers. So far they favor Tenn Valley but eventually the track shifts more south. As for cold, no sustained cold, or warm in this pattern. We may be averaging "above normal" though for a while.

Awesome write up and a great attitude! Love reading your posts!

[MillzPirate]

Got a question and a thought.on the NAO/OA.First the question is when the NOA/AO goes negative how long before we see the results cold snow?Also i'm beginning to believe the we won't have alot of notice on the pattern change maybe like a week or less.

a -NAO/AO doesnt necessarily translate to cold/snow... just as a +NAO doesnt translate to a lack there of.... it just increases your chances due to the sustainability of the cold