SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[Cold Rain]

It warrants very little discussion because, frankly, there's not much to discuss except a small rainstorm. This is very clear from the pattern. The discussion should have gone like this:

- Hey, there's an LP off the SE coast day 8

- Yeah, but the east is covered in warm air and the pattern is crap

- Well, we might get some rain out of it, though it looks a little weak for that

- On to January!

People instead are talking about 850s and liquid equivalents and all that crap when it's clear that there's not a chance in hell anyone outside the mountains or the interior NE will get anything resembling snow from this system, if it even happens.

I think it's perfectly fair for me to come in and say that there's no chance and this storm isn't worth discussing. If the cold-mongers can come in and state their wacked out opinions, I don't see why I can't add my sane and rational opinion to the mix.

Unfortunately, or fortunately, you don't get to decide what's worthy of discussion.

For the record, I stated earlier that I was skeptical about the prospects for snow because of the lack of cold air delivery. But I didn't do it in a way that implied people were moronic for discussing the possibility. Maybe you could try to tone down the attitude, as long as we're making suggestions.

[DaculaWeather]

I know everyone is starved for snow and unhappy that the major indices are not at all cooperating. But still, let's not be ridiculous here.

I appreciate your honesty and I probably agree with you... it's just the tone in how you present it. No need to sugar coat it but it could be done in a way to not piss off the people standing on the ledge.

[Shawn]

The 12z with it's thickness values would support some form of a light snow shower/flizzard event for parts of Central NC. It may stick to the top of the highest trees but, it's not much moisture to work with. Remember guys, the 850 0c line doesn't mean instant snow. I'd recommend using the whole sounding approach when the 12z is finished with it's run.

Also, I posted this in the banter forum, but everyone who doesn't know about the top-down method for winter wx should really take a listen to this video. http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/winterawoc/IC6/

[FallsLake]

Yes, I'm talking only verbatim about the 12Z. The only reason I'm even bringing it up is to show how it contrasts to the 6Z showing virtually no precip. falling with 850's below 0C vs. FallsLake's mention of 0.5 to 0.75" of qpf with 850's below 0C. At least this run shows some precip. falling with 850's colder than 0C. That's not to say that it will 1) likely verify; or 2) stick even if any snow were to fall. I agree that the pattern is pretty bad as has been mentioned.

You know I have to respond: looking back at the 6z 180 hour the 850 line is past RDU with > .25 falling (and granted this may have fallen right before 850 has past. But at 183 that frame shows another >.25 of precip. NOT sayng it is snow. Surface temps too warm but for future analysis if the surface temps were intially colder we would be having a really good winter storm.

[Poimen]

I think all of us are skeptical of seeing any wintry weather, but what's wrong with discussing the situation? I don't see anyone on a ledge or anything remotely close. If we can't discuss the possibilities of a winter event in the 7 day range, regardless of how remote the possibility may be, then what is the purpose of this board?

[Shawn]

The 12z with it's thickness values would support some form of a light snow shower/flizzard event for parts of Central NC. It may stick to the top of the highest trees but, it's not much moisture to work with. Remember guys, the 850 0c line doesn't mean instant snow. I'd recommend using the whole sounding approach when the 12z is finished with it's run.

Also, I posted this in the banter forum, but everyone who doesn't know about the top-down method for winter wx should really take a listen to this video. http://www.wdtb.noaa...winterawoc/IC6/

In reply to my last post looking at the model run iteself.. loaded up Raleigh and CLT into Bufkit, and it's beyond terrible. Widre's right on this one I suppose.

[LithiaWx]

You know I have to respond: looking back at the 6z 180 hour the 850 line is past RDU with > .25 falling (and granted this may have fallen right before 850 has past. But at 183 that frame shows another >.25 of precip. NOT sayng it is snow. Surface temps too warm but for future analysis if the surface temps were intially colder we would be having a really good winter storm.

Negative ghost rider.... Larry already explained you are looking at 3 hour 850 temps and 12 hour precip... That is the reason you keep coming up with the wrong conclusion. Look at the link on hour 180.. It is clear as can be there is no precip falling in RDU at hour 180 rain or snow.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/archive.shtml?text=KRDU&run=2011121906

[franklin NCwx]

Not everyone lives in char, or ral. Some folks have a shot at some snow next monday.

In reply to my last post looking at the model run iteself.. loaded up Raleigh and CLT into Bufkit, and it's beyond terrible. Widre's right on this one I suppose.

[valkhorn]

I know everyone is starved for snow and unhappy that the major indices are not at all cooperating. But still, let's not be ridiculous here.

Not everyone. The mid south in west TN has done well so far this winter, and even north MS has seen snow twice already this winter. In east TN we got snow all the way in the valley about two weeks ago, and it's been snowing at least every two weeks (1" or more) in the higher elevations of the Smokys (and I got to see plenty on a hike in November).

The ULL that produced snow was pretty unusual, and there was snow on the back end of a front not to long ago for TN.

Also, for what it's worth, the 12z GFS is putting snowfall in some unusual locations at h168

[WeatherNC]

The 12z with it's thickness values would support some form of a light snow shower/flizzard event for parts of Central NC. It may stick to the top of the highest trees but, it's not much moisture to work with. Remember guys, the 850 0c line doesn't mean instant snow. I'd recommend using the whole sounding approach when the 12z is finished with it's run.

Also, I posted this in the banter forum, but everyone who doesn't know about the top-down method for winter wx should really take a listen to this video. http://www.wdtb.noaa...winterawoc/IC6/

partial thickness universal nomogram, very helpful in determining dominant precip type

RaleighWX's model page has 1000-850, 850-700mb Thickness (valid at t-step), PMSL, 6 hour precip (for 6hr period prior), counties for the GFS, as well other American models. Blue lines are the 1000-850mb thickness, red 850-700mb. Example, Wake County, RDU off the 12z GFS, 1000-850 around 1310, 850-700 around 1540, plot is a wintery mixture, close to RN. However, when looking at the 6hr period prior it would likely be all RN with the levels 1330/1560, precip coming through as they drop.

[FallsLake]

I think all of us are skeptical of seeing any wintry weather, but what's wrong with discussing the situation? I don't see anyone on a ledge or anything remotely close. If we can't discuss the possibilities of a winter event in the 7 day range, regardless of how remote the possibility may be, then what is the purpose of this board?

I totally agree. I understand that a snow storm in 7 days is basically not going to happen (outside mountains) until the pattern changes. I expect the models to change to a warmer look as we get closer, or it plays out like the models depict but most get rain and 38 degrees. Still nice to track a winter "type" storm.

[franklin NCwx]

The cmc is weak and off shore. 850 freezing line is a little north and west of 85. Precip never makes it back to the cold air.

[LithiaWx]

What an ugly look to our week before Christmas...

[franklin NCwx]

Gfs ensemble mean is wetter. Have not seen the individuals yet. I'm sure some have an inland runner

[FallsLake]

Negative ghost rider.... Larry already explained you are looking at 3 hour 850 temps and 12 hour precip... That is the reason you keep coming up with the wrong conclusion. Look at the link on hour 180.. It is clear as can be there is no precip falling in RDU at hour 180 rain or snow.

http://wxweb.meteost...&run=2011121906

If your right, then your right and I appreciate the explaination. (but)So your saying the 3 hour increment frames average out the 12 hour precip. Lets take the current 12z at 165 hours. It shows the RDU below 850. with around .1 liquid (don't care if it's snow or rain). The next frame still shows RDU below 850 but with greater than .25 liquid. The way I see these frames is that they are depicting 850 and precip forecast for three hour increments. If they are not they are totally crap and should not be shown.

[LithiaWx]

If your right, then your right and I appreciate the explaination. (but)So your saying the 3 hour increment frames average out the 12 hour precip. Lets take the current 12z at 165 hours. It shows the RDU below 850. with around .1 liquid (don't care if it's snow or rain). The next frame still shows RDU below 850 but with greater than .25 liquid. The way I see these frames is that they are depicting 850 and precip forecast for three hour increments. If they are not they are totally crap and should not be shown.

The key when looking at model maps is if you are looking at 3, 6 or 12 hour precip totals. You can have the maps broken down into three hour increments like the NCEP but if you look at the bottom of the map it will tell you if you are looking at 3,6, or 12 hour precip totals. It's a bit funky tbh. You have the frames broken down into three hour increments but frequently you are looking at 6 hour precip totals. If you want a nice breakdown of how much precip is falling in a three hour frame reference the link here.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KRDU

[WeatherNC]

If your right, then your right and I appreciate the explaination. (but)So your saying the 3 hour increment frames average out the 12 hour precip. Lets take the current 12z at 165 hours. It shows the RDU below 850. with around .1 liquid (don't care if it's snow or rain). The next frame still shows RDU below 850 but with greater than .25 liquid. The way I see these frames is that they are depicting 850 and precip forecast for three hour increments. If they are not they are totally crap and should not be shown.

They are confusing, the 180hr ncep GFS panel posted above shows the 850 temp at 180hrs, and the precip for the 6 hr period prior. 177hr map shows the 850 temp at 177, and the 6hr precip prior to. There is going to be some overlap and obscurity in using it to base precip type. SN algorithms for this run do hint at a narrow window in the interior SE where it falls.

[FallsLake]

Thanks guys, I understand now; don't like it but understand...

[GaWx]

They are confusing, the 180hr ncep GFS panel posted above shows the 850 temp at 180hrs, and the precip for the 6 hr period prior. 177hr map shows the 850 temp at 177, and the 6hr precip prior to. There is going to be some overlap and obscurity in using it to base precip type. SN algorithms for this run do hint at a narrow window in the interior SE where it falls.

You're obviously talking about the 12Z gfs. I agree that they at least suggest snow on the 12Z gfs as I had mentioned, but not on the 6Z gfs. They're almost like night and day in that regard. Per Meteostar, a good 0.26"+ falls with the 850 down to -2C on the 12Z gfs as an offshore sfc low tracks SE of RDU. Compare that to none falling with 850's below 0C on the 6Z gfs, which pretty much just has a cold front passage and cold chasing the moisture away.

http://wxweb.meteost...&run=2011121912

[Brick Tamland]

Allan Huffman (RaleighWX) thinks Christmas still could get interesting.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/warm-week-but-still-watching-christmas-night-for-mischief

[dsaur]

Larry, could you please let me know what the Doc said about rain in Ga.? The gfs has me in the rain, then out of the rain, then back in the rain...sometimes lots, sometimes about like I've been getting. It has me befuzzled, and I know it lies to me on occasion. Is Doc still sending a massive rain storm to my south so we get inches where it's needed? Or are we looking at more pitiful offerings? Thanks, T

[Cheeznado]

It is pretty pointless discussing anything specific about any particular model at day 7- this pattern with multiple short waves with two streams phasing/not phasing is almost impossible to get a handle on beyond day 4 or so- in really general terms things would have to really come together perfectly to get any sort of decent snow in the SE region, lacking the correct NAO phase and with the SE ridge so strong. Down here in GA a total miracle is needed for any snow the rest of this year- up in NC and VA, the odds are better for maybe a nuisance type event but that is a long shot. I am mainly glad that it looks like I will get at least 1" of rain and hopefully more the next week.

[GaWx]

Larry, could you please let me know what the Doc said about rain in Ga.? The gfs has me in the rain, then out of the rain, then back in the rain...sometimes lots, sometimes about like I've been getting. It has me befuzzled, and I know it lies to me on occasion. Is Doc still sending a massive rain storm to my south so we get inches where it's needed? Or are we looking at more pitiful offerings? Thanks, T

Edit: Per 12Z Doc, you get 1"+ there ~30-40 miles S of downtown ATL for the period 0-168 hours.

[burgertime]

Larry, could you please let me know what the Doc said about rain in Ga.? The gfs has me in the rain, then out of the rain, then back in the rain...sometimes lots, sometimes about like I've been getting. It has me befuzzled, and I know it lies to me on occasion. Is Doc still sending a massive rain storm to my south so we get inches where it's needed? Or are we looking at more pitiful offerings? Thanks, T

For your area and points south the Doc is painting a pretty pitiful picture. Points north of ATL do well though.

[POWERSTROKE]

Guys if you ignore pests they eventually go away. If you keep feeding them they will hang around. You guys keep feeding it... think about it This winter may not have any snow but this is a weather forum so I say keep tracking whatever is on the models and see where it goes

[POWERSTROKE]

For your area and points south the Doc is painting a pretty pitiful picture. Points north of ATL do well though.

Which rain event are we looking at?

[dsaur]

Thanks, Larry, and Burger. One inch would be wonderful here....so I'll hope for a half, and might get a nice surprise T

[WeatherNC]

12z Euro deepens the system that comes through on the eve/Christmas morning off of New England, cold comes in thereafter, 26/27th looks rather cold, no storm on the 26th like the op GFS, everything is suppressed, maybe a hint of some development off the SE coast at 180hrs, but nothing really organized.

[franklin NCwx]

Euro looks flat with the third wave.

[Brick Tamland]

Allan Huffman (RaleighWX) thinks Christmas still could get interesting.

http://www.examiner....ht-for-mischief

Any thoughts on what RaleighWX wrote?