SE Mid-Long Range Discussion

[packbacker]

Thats in the back of my mind as well. However, when or if that blocking occurs It's probably at that time frame we could get the 2 to hook up at the right moment

You have to figure we get a 10-14 day period of good blocking, ala Jan 2000, we get an active pattern, ala 2000 and than bam, 2 weeks of winter and than a re-torch.

[FallsLake]

Larry is right, this model run does not show snow for RDU... Cold chasing the moisture away. The map you have here shows 12 hour precip....

I completely agree with Larry....

This site: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller provides 3hrs frames. I do agree with the precip type because I think surface temps would be too warm, but 850 temps on the three hour frames do fall below zero with precip still falling. Now maybe reading the three hour increaments is wrong, but seems right to me. Not trying to argue because we all know the 12z will show something different; but I would like to know if I should not use the above site.

[WidreMann]

This is pathetic. Just because there's a weak low pressure around the SE coast does not mean that there will be anything resembling snow flying outside the mountains (if even there). The temperatures are god-awful warm. No model shows air anywhere near cold enough to even be talking about mixing, let alone snow that any one of us would care about. Until we get a real pattern change, it's going to be just rain. You guys are going to go insane analyzing the details of the 200 hour GFS.

[ams30721us]

This is pathetic. Just because there's a weak low pressure around the SE coast does not mean that there will be anything resembling snow flying outside the mountains (if even there). The temperatures are god-awful warm. No model shows air anywhere near cold enough to even be talking about mixing, let alone snow that any one of us would care about. Until we get a real pattern change, it's going to be just rain. You guys are going to go insane analyzing the details of the 200 hour GFS.

I'm sorry maybe I forgot that this was winter time, a winter thread, and the fact that its the whole reason you come on these boards. Why do you even care? I mean honestly? I'm not sold one way or another but honestly why would you even post if you don't wont to be apart of it? Just curious..

[DaculaWeather]

This site: http://mag.ncep.noaa...B/appcontroller provides 3hrs frames. I do agree with the precip type because I think surface temps would be too warm, but 850 temps on the three hour frames do fall below zero with precip still falling. Now maybe reading the three hour increaments is wrong, but seems right to me. Not trying to argue because we all know the 12z will show something different; but I would like to know if I should not use the above site.

I have all of those, both in large format and small. I think mine are easier to pick an image... of course! See here for small 500 mb http://www.daculawea...6z_500_vort.php 500 large. http://www.daculawea..._vort_large.php You'll notice the header above the links are also links to the different hour runs. And for Lookout, no javascript is used to display images.

Here's a link to small (640x480) 850's http://www.daculawea...temp_height.php 850 large http://www.daculawea...eight_large.php

Let me know if you find any broken links... what a nightmare to code.

[GaWx]

This site: http://mag.ncep.noaa...B/appcontroller provides 3hrs frames. I do agree with the precip type because I think surface temps would be too warm, but 850 temps on the three hour frames do fall below zero with precip still falling. Now maybe reading the three hour increaments is wrong, but seems right to me. Not trying to argue because we all know the 12z will show something different; but I would like to know if I should not use the above site.

You're obviously getting the 850 three hour intervals mixed up with the 12 hour precip. intervals.

Even though the 850 temp's are at three hour intervals, that 180 hour map has precip, for the prior 12 hours as per what MariettaWx said. The precip. ends before hour 177, as the following Meteostar link shows:

http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KRDU

The 850 doesn't even fall to 0C until hour 177. Only 0.10" of precip. falls hour 174-177 (and it likely ended prior to hour 177, itself) and the 850 is still up at +2C at hour 174. So, virtually all, if not all, of the precip. is being modeled to fall when the 850's are still above 0C. There's a small chance that a very tiny bit is still falling when the 850 just reaches 0C. Even so, at best that would probably just mean a quick snow flurry and it would be a very far cry from what you first said was modeled, that 0.5" to 0.75" of qpf would fall after the 850 gets below 0C, which would have implied a good shot at a major snowstorm. In reality none of it does that.

[WeatherNC]

Getting the cold to penetrate far enough south just ahead of one of them will be the hard and most unlikely part.

Could not agree more, usually when the window is narrow, and ingredients are not there it verifies unfavorable for winter-type. The pacific modified hp coming into the inter-mountain west day 4 is then going to move into SE Canada around day 5. Lack of a 50/50 plus the source region are both red flags. No mechanism to lock it in or funnel what meager cold is there down the eastern US. Our best case scenario would be one of the systems on the gravy train, likely around Christmas, attempting to deepen off N NE, where a narrow window would open up a day or two after as cold air comes in. Another strike, no Greenland block to hold the 50/50 in place, so transient and the window is shut a bit. Time of year should be taken into some account, regardless of the pattern and what a model shows 7 days out. If I had to make a guess at this point, it would be N AL-MS and central-western TN as having the best chance for cold, next Mon/Tues with a larger system. Computer simulation train wreck with the 0z runs, hints the last system may take a track along the coast, or inland through the Apps. I do think the last storm has the best potential.

[WeatherNC]

Our best case scenario would be one of the systems on the gravy train, likely around Christmas, attempting to deepen off N NE, where a narrow window would open up a day or two after as cold air comes in.

Kind of like this...

[WidreMann]

I'm sorry maybe I forgot that this was winter time, a winter thread, and the fact that its the whole reason you come on these boards. Why do you even care? I mean honestly? I'm not sold one way or another but honestly why would you even post if you don't wont to be apart of it? Just curious..

Huh? Why do you guys try to justify this kind of garbage? These discussions are not meteorologically sound. On a weather board, we should aim for meteorologically sound discussions, especially from the red-taggers, who should know better.

[Steven_1974]

This is pathetic. Just because there's a weak low pressure around the SE coast does not mean that there will be anything resembling snow flying outside the mountains (if even there). The temperatures are god-awful warm. No model shows air anywhere near cold enough to even be talking about mixing, let alone snow that any one of us would care about. Until we get a real pattern change, it's going to be just rain. You guys are going to go insane analyzing the details of the 200 hour GFS.

Probably don't need to bother with the site then if that's how you feel about it. Good to see another season comes around and things don't change with certain folks.

[WidreMann]

Probably don't need to bother with the site then if that's how you feel about it. Good to see another season comes around and things don't change with certain folks.

So you really think there is a legitimate chance of a snowstorm in 7-9 days? You really think that this should not be dismissed like we normally dismiss storms in this range?

[Shawn]

Huh? Why do you guys try to justify this kind of garbage? These discussions are not meteorologically sound. On a weather board, we should aim for meteorologically sound discussions, especially from the red-taggers, who should know better.

Robert's discussions are especially awesome in this thread even if he's talking about just an active rain maker pattern. I gave up on this "snow chance" 3 days ago.

[ams30721us]

Huh? Why do you guys try to justify this kind of garbage? These discussions are not meteorologically sound. On a weather board, we should aim for meteorologically sound discussions, especially from the red-taggers, who should know better.

Or you could just not participate on the site or the forum? The fact that you disagree with peoples discussion does not mean that it should not take place on a weather board with red taggers, yellow taggers, or anyone else who has an account here. Thats the point of the forum is allow discussion about the weather to commence. If you really can't stand it that much it makes no sense for you to participate at all.

[GaWx]

_{In total contrast to the 6Z gfs, which MariettaWx and I are saying has virtually no, if any, snow falling at RDU, the 12Z gfs implies to me the likelihood of some snow being MODELED as falling between hours ~165 and 174 at RDU since 850's would largely be below 0C during that interval. Of course, the chance of this actually verifying is a totally different story. I'm just mentioning what the model output shows fwiw.}

[Jon]

So you really think there is a legitimate chance of a snowstorm in 7-9 days? You really think that this should not be dismissed like we normally dismiss storms in this range?

It's not that people think it's going to dump snow. Analyzing model runs in the 7 day range does help when time gets closer....did we see it before? How was it different? How have the runs changed and what has chaged about them? A storm doesn't have to be in the bag in order to duscuss it. Bottom line. This thread is also a MID RANGE discussion, so look at the thread before you start asking if we should pay attention to this. Yes, 168-180 hours classifies as mid range.

[WidreMann]

Or you could just not participate on the site or the forum? The fact that you disagree with peoples discussion does not mean that it should not take place on a weather board with red taggers, yellow taggers, or anyone else who has an account here. Thats the point of the forum is allow discussion about the weather to commence. If you really can't stand it that much it makes no sense for you to participate at all.

So I can only participate if I am going to do the snow dance, right? It looks like I am participating, in that I'm saying that there will be no snow storm and the pattern is crap. I don't know why that's not okay, when it's okay for other people to overanalyze fantasy storms on 200 hour model progs.

[ams30721us]

_{In totoal contrast to the 6Z gfs, which MariettaWx and I are saying has virtually no, if any, snow falling at RDU, the 12Z gfs implies to me the likelihood of some snow falling between hours ~165 and 174 at RDU since 850's would largely be below 0C during that interval.}

Yep. More of a Gulf Low type setup than a frontal passage.

[franklin NCwx]

The gfs keeps the trough positive tilt the whole time. Never allowing any moisture to make it up to the where there is enough cold air for snow.

[Poimen]

yeah, the 12Z GFS still showing a weak overrunning event plus weak coastal/or Gulf cyclogenesis. Given the winter we've had I would take this run verbatim, but I know in my heart of hearts a 7 day prog of the GFS is not going to be on the money and if the storm is there, the model is probably too far south and east at this time frame. But who knows, maybe Santa will have another surprise (albeit a day late) for us again this year.

[WidreMann]

It's not that people think it's going to dump snow. Analyzing model runs in the 7 day range does help when time gets closer....did we see it before? How was it different? How have the runs changed and what has chaged about them? A storm doesn't have to be in the bag in order to duscuss it. Bottom line. This thread is also a MID RANGE discussion, so look at the thread before you start asking if we should pay attention to this. Yes, 168-180 hours classifies as mid range.

It warrants very little discussion because, frankly, there's not much to discuss except a small rainstorm. This is very clear from the pattern. The discussion should have gone like this:

- Hey, there's an LP off the SE coast day 8

- Yeah, but the east is covered in warm air and the pattern is crap

- Well, we might get some rain out of it, though it looks a little weak for that

- On to January!

People instead are talking about 850s and liquid equivalents and all that crap when it's clear that there's not a chance in hell anyone outside the mountains or the interior NE will get anything resembling snow from this system, if it even happens.

I think it's perfectly fair for me to come in and say that there's no chance and this storm isn't worth discussing. If the cold-mongers can come in and state their wacked out opinions, I don't see why I can't add my sane and rational opinion to the mix.

[Jon]

_{In totoal contrast to the 6Z gfs, which MariettaWx and I are saying has virtually no, if any, snow falling at RDU, the 12Z gfs implies to me the likelihood of some snow falling between hours ~165 and 174 at RDU since 850's would largely be below 0C during that interval.}

Specifics of locals with change run to run, especially this far out...but that's right, 850's are colder before the storm and thats key...yet, surface temps in Raleigh struggle to get to where they need to be towards the end of the storm, which I think is Wildre's point. Verbatim, this might have some token snows around central NC but I wouldn't agree with the snowfall map any more NE in NC than that...

[ams30721us]

So I can only participate if I am going to do the snow dance, right? It looks like I am participating, in that I'm saying that there will be no snow storm and the pattern is crap. I don't know why that's not okay, when it's okay for other people to overanalyze fantasy storms on 200 hour model progs.

Drama Queen much?? Btw no one said you had to agree or do a snow dance or anything of that nature. Maybe read more before posting dumb stuff. Second I actually stated in my first reply that I am not sold on anything wintry officially yet but the fact that you think no one should be allowed to have weather discussion on a weather board is pretty ridiculous and honestly I would hope that a moderator would actually put a stop to this non sense before it gets out of hand.

[WidreMann]

yeah, the 12Z GFS still showing a weak overrunning event plus weak coastal/or Gulf cyclogenesis. Given the winter we've had I would take this run verbatim, but I know in my heart of hearts a 7 day prog of the GFS is not going to be on the money and if the storm is there, the model is probably too far south and east at this time frame. But who knows, maybe Santa will have another surprise (albeit a day late) for us again this year.

Taken verbatim, you don't even get any snow. Drop temps 10 degrees and you still don't get any snow.

[franklin NCwx]

Yeah, without any blocking this thing can come west. A lot this is really where you want the gfs at this range. Weak and off shore

yeah, the 12Z GFS still showing a weak overrunning event plus weak coastal/or Gulf cyclogenesis. Given the winter we've had I would take this run verbatim, but I know in my heart of hearts a 7 day prog of the GFS is not going to be on the money and if the storm is there, the model is probably too far south and east at this time frame. But who knows, maybe Santa will have another surprise (albeit a day late) for us again this year.

[Jon]

It warrants very little discussion because, frankly, there's not much to discuss except a small rainstorm. This is very clear from the pattern. The discussion should have gone like this:

- Hey, there's an LP off the SE coast day 8

- Yeah, but the east is covered in warm air and the pattern is crap

- Well, we might get some rain out of it, though it looks a little weak for that

- On to January!

People instead are talking about 850s and liquid equivalents and all that crap when it's clear that there's not a chance in hell anyone outside the mountains or the interior NE will get anything resembling snow from this system, if it even happens.

I think it's perfectly fair for me to come in and say that there's no chance and this storm isn't worth discussing. If the cold-mongers can come in and state their wacked out opinions, I don't see why I can't add my sane and rational opinion to the mix.

I don't disagree with you. I think maybe if you take 10 seconds to cool down and don't type with so much passion people won't jump on you. Say exactly what you said in this post instead of calling the posters pathetic and you'll get more positive attention.

[WidreMann]

Drama Queen much?? Btw no one said you had to agree or do a snow dance or anything of that nature. Maybe read more before posting dumb stuff. Second I actually stated in my first reply that I am not sold on anything wintry officially yet but the fact that you think no one should be allowed to have weather discussion on a weather board is pretty ridiculous and honestly I would hope that a moderator would actually put a stop to this non sense before it gets out of hand.

I'm not the one posting dumb stuff. Come on. Also, you might want to avoid throwing up strawmen. When or where did I say that weather discussion on a weather board is not allowed? You made that up. I'm merely calling out the quality and nature of the discussion. I'm not asking for it not to happen, or for it to be removed, or whatever else you think is going on.

[WidreMann]

I don't disagree with you. I think maybe if you take 10 seconds to cool down and don't type with so much passion people won't jump on you. Say exactly what you said in this post instead of calling the posters pathetic and you'll get more positive attention.

I know everyone is starved for snow and unhappy that the major indices are not at all cooperating. But still, let's not be ridiculous here.

[Poimen]

Taken verbatim, you don't even get any snow. Drop temps 10 degrees and you still don't get any snow.

maybe verbatim is a bad term. Given the winter so far, I would gladly take my chances with the overall set-up as the model depicts at day 7.

[GaWx]

Specifics of locals with change run to run, especially this far out...but that's right, 850's are colder before the storm and thats key...yet, surface temps in Raleigh struggle to get to where they need to be towards the end of the storm, which I think is Wildre's point. Verbatim, this might have some token snows around central NC but I wouldn't agree with the snowfall map any more NE in NC than that...

Yes, I'm talking only verbatim about the 12Z. The only reason I'm even bringing it up is to show how it contrasts to the 6Z showing virtually no precip. falling with 850's below 0C vs. FallsLake's mention of 0.5 to 0.75" of qpf with 850's below 0C. At least this run shows some precip. falling with 850's colder than 0C. That's not to say that it will 1) likely verify; or 2) stick even if any snow were to fall. I agree that the pattern is pretty bad as has been mentioned.

[WeatherNC]

I think it's perfectly fair for me to come in and say that there's no chance and this storm isn't worth discussing. If the cold-mongers can come in and state their wacked out opinions, I don't see why I can't add my sane and rational opinion to the mix.

That's your opinion and we all respect it... If we always canceled a storm 7 days out though, what would we have to talk about? I gave my objective look at this range, as did you and others. However, I would not call any of them wacked.