FoothillsNC Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 the fact that GFS is pretty close overall the the ECMWF at this time range is pretty good news I think. If tonights run comes in similar to its last couple , then we may have a legit threat of a Winter type storm in part of the Southeast. I wouldn't want any ice though, and a strong damming high like on todays run would be pretty scary with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 GFS drops 3-4" of snow over AL/MS. Would certainly warrant a snow chase. that's actually 4-5 with a couple of 5-6 areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 that's actually 4-5 with a couple of 5-6 areas I was being conservative. Its 180 hours out so we don't need to be fussing over a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'm in no way saying it will happen, but if you blend the last couple ECMWF and GFS, you get something close to Jan 1987. That can't happen because its the biggest snowstorm I've ever seen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Hopefully the Euro holds something good for some folks. I have a busy day tomorrow and can't wait up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wh_adkins01 Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'm doing all I can to wait up but the caffeine is wearing off..might stick it out a lil longer. First decent opportunity of the season, I have been waiting for these long nights lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I'm in no way saying it will happen, but if you blend the last couple ECMWF and GFS, you get something close to Jan 1987. That can't happen because its the biggest snowstorm I've ever seen here. I was actually looking at Dec 27 1997 as a similar looking setup. Positive tilt trough. Marginal cold air with low in NE Gulf tracking up the coast. Cold rain in Asheville that ended as a couple hours of snow. Rain/Snow mix in Knoxville that did not accumulate, with sfc temps 34-36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Anyone gonna do pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Euro has snow on the 23rd-24th from Dallas to Pittsburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Christmas at 7PM, 850 0 deg goes from Raleigh to Montgomery, AL to Dallas, TX, so it's a little colder this run. 1034 mb High in Kansas with positive tilt trough extending from Great Lakes to Texas with some vort energy at the base of the trough in Texas and another parcel diving in from W Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Closed low pinches off at the base of the trough and moves into the NE Gulf, then to Charleston, SC. Meanwhile, 850 temps have warmed a great deal in the SE. So, it's a closed low tracking deep into the SE...probably a generous rain producer in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 CMC is faster...has more energy diving into the trough...more neutral tilt...warmer...more inland track = big nasty Christmas day rain. NOGAPS has a more suppressed southern slider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 From Dr. Ryan Maue: @RyanMaue: Global models are hell-bent on near +4 AO phase, very extreme. So much for that negative NAO/AO Arctic AGW hubub http://policlimate.c...fs_ao_bias.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 And then the 6z GFS gives us this; the 850 zero has just past RDU about three hours before with between .5 and .75 liquid equiv. still to fall. Now I still don't believe this until it gets closer, but as Robert said it's great to have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Not the best model reader but, is the 6z showing snow for the WNC Mnts around the 162-180hr panels?....maybe 3-4 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Not the best model reader but, is the 6z showing snow for the WNC Mnts around the 162-180hr panels?....maybe 3-4 inches? Probably so, but in higher elevations. Asheville has cold rain and sfc temps in low 40's down to upper 30's during that timeframe per Meteostar - http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kavl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Probably so, but in higher elevations. Asheville has cold rain and sfc temps in low 40's down to upper 30's during that timeframe per Meteostar - http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=kavl Thnxs Grit....looks like we will have some snow covered mnts to look at. Still a ways to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 And then the 6z GFS gives us this; the 850 zero has just past RDU about three hours before with between .5 and .75 liquid equiv. still to fall. Now I still don't believe this until it gets closer, but as Robert said it's great to have something to track. I think our (central NC) best bet for snow in this pattern (if even possible) will be something like this, i.e. an overrunning event. Any wrapped up LP system will more than likely track over the piedmont or mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I think our (central NC) best bet for snow in this pattern (if even possible) will be something like this, i.e. an overrunning event. Any wrapped up LP system will more than likely track over the piedmont or mountains. I kinda think the opposite in this setup. I'd like the idea of a wrapped up, deepening storm, IF it didn't track too far inland, which it would probably do. Reason is, there is no good mechanism to "push" the cold into the area east of the Apps. A 1032 high in Texas won't do it. If we don't have a strong high in the midwest, Lakes, or NE building east and SE, then it's going to be hard for any air that's cold enough to funnel in here. A strong, deepening storm however, could help deliver cold, but only if it took the right track (a Piedmont cutter won't do it, as you pointed out). But the models are not really showing either of those scenarios yet, so I remain very skeptical at this point. Hopefully we can thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I kinda think the opposite in this setup. I'd like the idea of a wrapped up, deepening storm, IF it didn't track too far inland, which it would probably do. Reason is, there is no good mechanism to "push" the cold into the area east of the Apps. A 1032 high in Texas won't do it. If we don't have a strong high in the midwest, Lakes, or NE building east and SE, then it's going to be hard for any air that's cold enough to funnel in here. A strong, deepening storm however, could help deliver cold, but only if it took the right track (a Piedmont cutter won't do it, as you pointed out). But the models are not really showing either of those scenarios yet, so I remain very skeptical at this point. Hopefully we can thread the needle. I agree as well, surface temps will be the hardest thing to overcome. Map looks great but if temps are in the 40s it will take a lot of evaporational cooling; which by the time it worked the precep would be leaving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 FWIW the dgex looks like the 6z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 I kinda think the opposite in this setup. I'd like the idea of a wrapped up, deepening storm, IF it didn't track too far inland, which it would probably do. Reason is, there is no good mechanism to "push" the cold into the area east of the Apps. A 1032 high in Texas won't do it. If we don't have a strong high in the midwest, Lakes, or NE building east and SE, then it's going to be hard for any air that's cold enough to funnel in here. A strong, deepening storm however, could help deliver cold, but only if it took the right track (a Piedmont cutter won't do it, as you pointed out). But the models are not really showing either of those scenarios yet, so I remain very skeptical at this point. Hopefully we can thread the needle. I agree, threading the needle never works out for us, only people that have any hope are the mountains, but atleast we can root for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 And then the 6z GFS gives us this; the 850 zero has just past RDU about three hours before with between .5 and .75 liquid equiv. still to fall. Now I still don't believe this until it gets closer, but as Robert said it's great to have something to track. You're not reading this correctly. Virtually all, if not all, of the precip. shown falls before the 850 reaches 0c. This is cold chasing the moisture away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 Not the best model reader but, is the 6z showing snow for the WNC Mnts around the 162-180hr panels?....maybe 3-4 inches? Yes, it looks like a couple of inches for those high far W NC mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 So many s/w in the flow, the models are all amplifying different ones at different times and in different places. It would indeed be a miracle if one of them works out in this pattern I think. Getting the cold to penetrate far enough south just ahead of one of them will be the hard and most unlikely part. Somebody might get lucky though. Still a fun pattern to watch, because all the models show the massive zonal flow and warm up after Christmas, but that probably won't last too long or be boring for that long, despite those awful indices. Obviously things change daily, and usually in favor of more action quickly. Probably the best chance would be ECMWF from yesterdays 12z run, that allows such a far south cutoff and a high to build in on both sides of the storm, but we'd only have a 2 day window of any cold air...and thats a big long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 You're not reading this correctly. Virtually all, if not all, of the precip. shown falls before the 850 reaches 0c. This is cold chasing the moisture away. No the 850 line had already past RDU three hours before. The below frame is three hours farther out. Still shows > .25 precip for central NC. But as I stated in another post surface temps are our greatest worry (other than if this setup is even right). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 0z gfs mems @ 120hrs, op top left, some have a cad look Christmas Eve, maybe an icing issue for NW NC is starting to take shape. After, and even at this period the model is still pretty fluid. This may be one of the wettest Christmas weekends in a long time though. rn chances Weds/night, another Fri/Sat, then possibly the bigger storm Sun night & Mo. Cold air yet to be determined, even at day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The euro at 240 is just nuts, a close low just east of GA/SC, another strong vort over TX/LA. Robert's been calling for this, crazy active pattern. To bad there isn't cold to work with because it could be a monumental winter. Just worried we are going to get the blocking we need finally and than the wet pattern fizzles out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 The euro at 240 is just nuts, a close low just east of GA/SC, another strong vort over TX/LA. Robert's been calling for this, crazy active pattern. To bad there isn't cold to work with because it could be a monumental winter. Just worried we are going to get the blocking we need finally and than the wet pattern fizzles out. Thats in the back of my mind as well. However, when or if that blocking occurs It's probably at that time frame we could get the 2 to hook up at the right moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 19, 2011 Share Posted December 19, 2011 No the 850 line had already past RDU three hours before. The below frame is three hours farther out. Still shows > .25 precip for central NC. But as I stated in another post surface temps are our greatest worry (other than if this setup is even right). Larry is right, this model run does not show snow for RDU... Cold chasing the moisture away. The map you have here shows 12 hour precip.... I completely agree with Larry.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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